Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Sunday, December 07, 2025

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
North Florida (2-6) @ Gonzaga #11 (8-1)	Gonzaga (94.1%)	09:00 PM	31
09:00 PM North Florida @ Gonzaga #11 2-6 vs 8-1 North Florida 5.9% Gonzaga 94.1% Model Pick Gonzaga 94.1% Pick Spread Gonzaga -47.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Florida 60 vs Gonzaga 100 Total 159.4 Margin +40.0 Spread DOG COVERS @30% Diff -7.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 167.5 @73%
UTSA (4-4) @ Alabama #12 (6-2)	Alabama (93.8%)	02:00 PM	31
02:00 PM UTSA @ Alabama #12 4-4 vs 6-2 UTSA 6.2% Alabama 93.8% Model Pick Alabama 93.8% Pick Spread Alabama -33.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UTSA 68 vs Alabama 93 Total 161.5 Margin +25.1 Spread DOG COVERS @28% Diff -7.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 168.5 @70%
Tusculum (0-1) @ East Tennessee State (7-2)	East Tennessee State (92.9%)	02:00 PM	17
02:00 PM Tusculum @ East Tennessee State 0-1 vs 7-2 Tusculum 7.1% East Tennessee State 92.9% Model Pick East Tennessee State 92.9% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Tusculum 67 vs East Tennessee State 75 Total 142.0 Margin +8.0
Ecclesia (0-2) @ Louisiana Tech (4-3)	Louisiana Tech (92.2%)	03:00 PM	8
03:00 PM Ecclesia @ Louisiana Tech 0-2 vs 4-3 Ecclesia 7.8% Louisiana Tech 92.2% Model Pick Louisiana Tech 92.2% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Ecclesia 73 vs Louisiana Tech 86 Total 158.9 Margin +13.1
Canisius (4-5) @ Siena (8-2)	Siena (90.2%)	02:00 PM	20
02:00 PM Canisius @ Siena 4-5 vs 8-2 Canisius 9.8% Siena 90.2% Model Pick Siena 90.2% Pick Spread Siena -17.0 Home ML -2000 Away ML +950 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.7% MODEL PROB 90.2% VEGAS TRUE 90.9% VEGAS JUICED 95.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Canisius 58 vs Siena 71 Total 129.1 Margin +13.7 Spread DOG COVERS @39% Diff -3.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 131.5 @57%
Central Michigan (3-5) @ Saint Louis (7-1)	Saint Louis (90.0%)	03:00 PM	20
03:00 PM Central Michigan @ Saint Louis 3-5 vs 7-1 Central Michigan 10.0% Saint Louis 90.0% Model Pick Saint Louis 90.0% Pick Spread Saint Louis -25.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Central Michigan 65 vs Saint Louis 96 Total 161.7 Margin +30.9 Spread FAV COVERS @67% Diff +5.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 157.0 @64%
UL Monroe (2-6) @ Stephen F. Austin (6-2)	Stephen F. Austin (88.8%)	03:00 PM	21
03:00 PM UL Monroe @ Stephen F. Austin 2-6 vs 6-2 UL Monroe 11.2% Stephen F. Austin 88.8% Model Pick Stephen F. Austin 88.8% Pick Spread Stephen F. Austin -19.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UL Monroe 62 vs Stephen F. Austin 82 Total 143.6 Margin +20.0 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +1.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 140.8 @59%
Rider (1-6) @ Quinnipiac (6-3)	Quinnipiac (87.2%)	02:00 PM	13
02:00 PM Rider @ Quinnipiac 1-6 vs 6-3 Rider 12.8% Quinnipiac 87.2% Model Pick Quinnipiac 87.2% Pick Spread Quinnipiac -14.0 Home ML -1500 Away ML +775 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.0% MODEL PROB 87.2% VEGAS TRUE 89.1% VEGAS JUICED 93.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Rider 65 vs Quinnipiac 89 Total 153.6 Margin +24.0 Spread FAV COVERS @77% Diff +9.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 147.2 @69%
UIC (4-4) @ Yale (9-1)	Yale (86.8%)	02:00 PM	23
02:00 PM UIC @ Yale 4-4 vs 9-1 UIC 13.2% Yale 86.8% Model Pick Yale 86.8% Pick Spread Yale -12.5 Home ML -1100 Away ML +650 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.5% MODEL PROB 86.8% VEGAS TRUE 87.3% VEGAS JUICED 91.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UIC 71 vs Yale 77 Total 147.8 Margin +6.0 Spread DOG COVERS @31% Diff -6.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 150.5 @58%
Alabama A&M (4-3) @ Lipscomb (5-4)	Lipscomb (84.9%)	05:00 PM	15
05:00 PM +6.2% EDGE Alabama A&M @ Lipscomb 4-3 vs 5-4 Alabama A&M 15.1% Lipscomb 84.9% Model Pick Lipscomb 84.9% Pick Spread Lipscomb -10.0 Home ML -472 Away ML +347 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.2% MODEL PROB 84.9% VEGAS TRUE 78.7% VEGAS JUICED 82.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Alabama A&M 69 vs Lipscomb 81 Total 149.3 Margin +11.9 Spread FAV COVERS @55% Diff +1.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 145.8 @61%
Georgetown (7-2) @ North Carolina #16 (7-1)	North Carolina (84.3%)	05:00 PM	51
05:00 PM Georgetown @ North Carolina #16 7-2 vs 7-1 Georgetown 15.7% North Carolina 84.3% Model Pick North Carolina 84.3% Pick Spread North Carolina -10.5 Home ML -800 Away ML +525 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.5% MODEL PROB 84.3% VEGAS TRUE 84.7% VEGAS JUICED 88.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Georgetown 67 vs North Carolina 86 Total 153.9 Margin +19.1 Spread FAV COVERS @75% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 150.5 @60%
St. Francis (PA) (2-7) @ Radford (3-7)	Radford (83.7%)	02:30 PM	16
02:30 PM St. Francis (PA) @ Radford 2-7 vs 3-7 St. Francis (PA) 16.3% Radford 83.7% Model Pick Radford 83.7% Pick Spread Radford -13.5 Home ML -710 Away ML +480 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.1% MODEL PROB 83.7% VEGAS TRUE 83.6% VEGAS JUICED 87.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE St. Francis (PA) 74 vs Radford 85 Total 159.3 Margin +11.1 Spread DOG COVERS @43% Diff -2.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 156.2 @59%
Air Force (3-7) @ Navy (5-5)	Navy (82.2%)	12:00 PM	18
12:00 PM Air Force @ Navy 3-7 vs 5-5 Air Force 17.8% Navy 82.2% Model Pick Navy 82.2% Pick Spread Navy -9.5 Home ML -600 Away ML +425 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.4% MODEL PROB 82.2% VEGAS TRUE 81.8% VEGAS JUICED 85.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Air Force 62 vs Navy 76 Total 138.7 Margin +13.9 Spread FAV COVERS @63% Diff +4.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 133.0 @67%
UTEP (3-4) @ Seattle U (6-2)	Seattle U (81.8%)	08:00 PM	28
08:00 PM UTEP @ Seattle U 3-4 vs 6-2 UTEP 18.2% Seattle U 81.8% Model Pick Seattle U 81.8% Pick Spread Seattle U -12.0 Home ML -570 Away ML +407 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.6% MODEL PROB 81.8% VEGAS TRUE 81.2% VEGAS JUICED 85.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UTEP 64 vs Seattle U 80 Total 144.1 Margin +16.7 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 136.2 @73%
Weber State (4-4) @ St. Thomas-Minnesota (6-4)	St. Thomas-Minnesota (79.7%)	01:00 PM	20
01:00 PM Weber State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota 4-4 vs 6-4 Weber State 20.3% St. Thomas-Minnesota 79.7% Model Pick St. Thomas-Minnesota 79.7% Pick Spread St. Thomas-Minnesota -7.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Weber State 78 vs St. Thomas-Minnesota 78 Total 156.8 Margin +0.2 Spread DOG COVERS @29% Diff -7.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 156.5 @51%
Southern Indiana (3-6) @ Indiana State (5-4)	Indiana State (79.3%)	01:00 PM	21
01:00 PM Southern Indiana @ Indiana State 3-6 vs 5-4 Southern Indiana 20.7% Indiana State 79.3% Model Pick Indiana State 79.3% Pick Spread Indiana State -11.0 Home ML -625 Away ML +430 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.8% MODEL PROB 79.3% VEGAS TRUE 82.0% VEGAS JUICED 86.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Southern Indiana 71 vs Indiana State 85 Total 156.5 Margin +13.9 Spread FAV COVERS @60% Diff +3.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 156.5 @50%
UNLV (3-5) @ Stanford (7-1)	Stanford (79.0%)	04:00 PM	31
04:00 PM UNLV @ Stanford 3-5 vs 7-1 UNLV 21.0% Stanford 79.0% Model Pick Stanford 79.0% Pick Spread Stanford -9.0 Home ML -525 Away ML +375 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.0% MODEL PROB 79.0% VEGAS TRUE 80.0% VEGAS JUICED 84.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UNLV 75 vs Stanford 94 Total 168.9 Margin +19.1 Spread FAV COVERS @78% Diff +9.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 165.0 @62%
Towson (6-3) @ UCF (7-1)	UCF (79.0%)	04:00 PM	41
04:00 PM Towson @ UCF 6-3 vs 7-1 Towson 21.0% UCF 79.0% Model Pick UCF 79.0% Pick Spread UCF -9.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Towson 70 vs UCF 80 Total 150.0 Margin +10.4 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +0.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 146.5 @61%
Hofstra (5-4) @ Pittsburgh (5-4)	Pittsburgh (76.2%)	04:00 PM	24
04:00 PM Hofstra @ Pittsburgh 5-4 vs 5-4 Hofstra 23.8% Pittsburgh 76.2% Model Pick Pittsburgh 76.2% Pick Spread Pittsburgh -8.5 Home ML -430 Away ML +320 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.1% MODEL PROB 76.2% VEGAS TRUE 77.3% VEGAS JUICED 81.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Hofstra 71 vs Pittsburgh 74 Total 145.6 Margin +3.2 Spread DOG COVERS @34% Diff -5.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 136.5 @76%
Northwestern State (1-7) @ SE Louisiana (3-5)	SE Louisiana (74.2%)	04:30 PM	26
04:30 PM Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana 1-7 vs 3-5 Northwestern State 25.8% SE Louisiana 74.2% Model Pick SE Louisiana 74.2% Pick Spread SE Louisiana -7.0 Home ML -352 Away ML +275 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.3% MODEL PROB 74.2% VEGAS TRUE 74.5% VEGAS JUICED 77.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Northwestern State 66 vs SE Louisiana 77 Total 142.5 Margin +11.3 Spread FAV COVERS @63% Diff +4.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 134.8 @72%
Manhattan (4-5) @ Marist (5-2)	Marist (74.2%)	02:00 PM	36
02:00 PM Manhattan @ Marist 4-5 vs 5-2 Manhattan 25.8% Marist 74.2% Model Pick Marist 74.2% Pick Spread Marist -7.5 Home ML -380 Away ML +290 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.3% MODEL PROB 74.2% VEGAS TRUE 75.5% VEGAS JUICED 79.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Manhattan 61 vs Marist 76 Total 137.4 Margin +15.0 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 140.8 @60%
Virginia-Lynchburg (0-7) @ Campbell (3-5)	Campbell (71.5%)	04:00 PM	28
04:00 PM Virginia-Lynchburg @ Campbell 0-7 vs 3-5 Virginia-Lynchburg 28.5% Campbell 71.5% Model Pick Campbell 71.5% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Virginia-Lynchburg 82 vs Campbell 101 Total 183.6 Margin +18.8
Bethany (WV) (0-1) @ Mercyhurst (3-6)	Mercyhurst (71.4%)	02:00 PM	29
02:00 PM Bethany (WV) @ Mercyhurst 0-1 vs 3-6 Bethany (WV) 28.6% Mercyhurst 71.4% Model Pick Mercyhurst 71.4% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Bethany (WV) 79 vs Mercyhurst 97 Total 176.8 Margin +18.0
Creighton (5-3) @ Nebraska (8-0)	Nebraska (71.0%)	05:00 PM	49
05:00 PM +5.0% EDGE Creighton @ Nebraska 5-3 vs 8-0 Creighton 29.0% Nebraska 71.0% Model Pick Nebraska 71.0% Pick Spread Nebraska -5.0 Home ML -218 Away ML +182 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.0% MODEL PROB 71.0% VEGAS TRUE 66.0% VEGAS JUICED 68.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Creighton 72 vs Nebraska 85 Total 157.2 Margin +12.4 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 155.8 @54%
Green Bay (4-6) @ Wright State (4-5)	Wright State (69.7%)	05:00 PM	30
05:00 PM Green Bay @ Wright State 4-6 vs 4-5 Green Bay 30.3% Wright State 69.7% Model Pick Wright State 69.7% Pick Spread Wright State -6.5 Home ML -275 Away ML +225 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.7% MODEL PROB 69.7% VEGAS TRUE 70.4% VEGAS JUICED 73.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Green Bay 68 vs Wright State 83 Total 151.5 Margin +14.9 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.8 @77%
Alabama State (3-5) @ UT Martin (6-2)	UT Martin (68.8%)	03:00 PM	41
03:00 PM Alabama State @ UT Martin 3-5 vs 6-2 Alabama State 31.2% UT Martin 68.8% Model Pick UT Martin 68.8% Pick Spread UT Martin -6.5 Home ML -239 Away ML +197 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.1% MODEL PROB 68.8% VEGAS TRUE 67.7% VEGAS JUICED 70.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Alabama State 74 vs UT Martin 83 Total 156.4 Margin +9.2 Spread FAV COVERS @58% Diff +2.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 146.0 @79%
Central Arkansas (4-5) @ East Texas A&M (4-4)	East Texas A&M (68.3%)	06:00 PM	32
06:00 PM CLOSE Central Arkansas @ East Texas A&M 4-5 vs 4-4 Central Arkansas 31.7% East Texas A&M 68.3% Model Pick East Texas A&M 68.3% Pick Spread East Texas A&M -2.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Central Arkansas 73 vs East Texas A&M 76 Total 148.9 Margin +3.1 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +0.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.2 @64%
Niagara (2-6) @ Saint Peter's (3-4)	Saint Peter's (66.5%)	02:00 PM	34
02:00 PM Niagara @ Saint Peter's 2-6 vs 3-4 Niagara 33.5% Saint Peter's 66.5% Model Pick Saint Peter's 66.5% Pick Spread Saint Peter's -5.5 Home ML -225 Away ML +185 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.1% MODEL PROB 66.5% VEGAS TRUE 66.4% VEGAS JUICED 69.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Niagara 62 vs Saint Peter's 75 Total 136.4 Margin +12.8 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 131.8 @64%
Utah State (7-1) @ Charlotte (4-5)	Utah State (65.6%)	02:00 PM	44
02:00 PM Utah State @ Charlotte 7-1 vs 4-5 Utah State 65.6% Charlotte 34.4% Model Pick Utah State 65.6% Pick Spread Utah State -11.0 Home ML +410 Away ML -585 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -15.8% MODEL PROB 65.6% VEGAS TRUE 81.3% VEGAS JUICED 85.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Utah State 72 vs Charlotte 70 Total 143.0 Margin -2.0 Spread DOG COVERS @76% Diff -9.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 140.0 @59%
Missouri (8-1) @ Kansas #21 (6-3)	Kansas (64.2%)	01:00 PM	76
01:00 PM Missouri @ Kansas #21 8-1 vs 6-3 Missouri 35.8% Kansas 64.2% Model Pick Kansas 64.2% Pick Spread Kansas -6.5 Home ML -240 Away ML +197 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -3.6% MODEL PROB 64.2% VEGAS TRUE 67.7% VEGAS JUICED 70.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Missouri 66 vs Kansas 77 Total 143.0 Margin +10.6 Spread FAV COVERS @62% Diff +4.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 149.5 @69%
SMU (8-1) @ Texas A&M (7-2)	Texas A&M (63.8%)	05:00 PM	61
05:00 PM +7.9% EDGECLOSE SMU @ Texas A&M 8-1 vs 7-2 SMU 36.2% Texas A&M 63.8% Model Pick Texas A&M 63.8% Pick Spread Texas A&M -1.5 Home ML -144 Away ML +114 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.9% MODEL PROB 63.8% VEGAS TRUE 55.9% VEGAS JUICED 59.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE SMU 83 vs Texas A&M 94 Total 176.7 Margin +11.1 Spread FAV COVERS @77% Diff +9.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 164.2 @83%
Austin Peay (4-4) @ UT Rio Grande Valley (2-5)	UT Rio Grande Valley (62.9%)	02:00 PM	37
02:00 PM CLOSE Austin Peay @ UT Rio Grande Valley 4-4 vs 2-5 Austin Peay 37.1% UT Rio Grande Valley 62.9% Model Pick UT Rio Grande Valley 62.9% Pick Spread UT Rio Grande Valley -3.0 Home ML -120 Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Austin Peay 76 vs UT Rio Grande Valley 73 Total 149.2 Margin -3.8 Spread DOG COVERS @29% Diff +7.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 150.5 @54%
Saint Mary's (8-1) @ Davidson (7-1)	Saint Mary's (62.5%)	02:00 PM	58
02:00 PM Saint Mary's @ Davidson 8-1 vs 7-1 Saint Mary's 62.5% Davidson 37.5% Model Pick Saint Mary's 62.5% Pick Spread Saint Mary's -9.5 Home ML +300 Away ML -380 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -13.5% MODEL PROB 62.5% VEGAS TRUE 76.0% VEGAS JUICED 79.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Saint Mary's 78 vs Davidson 74 Total 152.0 Margin -3.4 Spread DOG COVERS @68% Diff -6.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.5 @85%
Fairfield (5-4) @ Merrimack (4-6)	Merrimack (62.3%)	01:00 PM	38
01:00 PM +4.1% EDGECLOSE Fairfield @ Merrimack 5-4 vs 4-6 Fairfield 37.7% Merrimack 62.3% Model Pick Merrimack 62.3% Pick Spread Merrimack -3.5 Home ML -153 Away ML +130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.1% MODEL PROB 62.3% VEGAS TRUE 58.3% VEGAS JUICED 60.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fairfield 68 vs Merrimack 74 Total 142.6 Margin +5.8 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 144.2 @55%
San Francisco (5-4) @ Mississippi State (4-4)	Mississippi State (61.7%)	04:00 PM	43
04:00 PM San Francisco @ Mississippi State 5-4 vs 4-4 San Francisco 38.3% Mississippi State 61.7% Model Pick Mississippi State 61.7% Pick Spread Mississippi State -4.0 Home ML -185 Away ML +160 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.0% MODEL PROB 61.7% VEGAS TRUE 62.8% VEGAS JUICED 64.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE San Francisco 72 vs Mississippi State 80 Total 151.3 Margin +7.9 Spread FAV COVERS @61% Diff +3.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 150.8 @52%
Cornell (5-4) @ Samford (4-6)	Samford (59.3%) DOG	07:00 PM	41
07:00 PM CLOSEUNDERDOG Cornell @ Samford 5-4 vs 4-6 Cornell 40.7% Samford 59.3% Model Pick Samford 59.3% Pick Spread Samford +0.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -120 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cornell 84 vs Samford 86 Total 170.3 Margin +2.3 Spread DOG COVERS @58% Diff +2.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 166.2 @62%
Iona (6-3) @ Sacred Heart (3-5)	Sacred Heart (59.2%)	02:00 PM	41
02:00 PM +9.8% EDGECLOSE Iona @ Sacred Heart 6-3 vs 3-5 Iona 40.8% Sacred Heart 59.2% Model Pick Sacred Heart 59.2% Pick Spread Sacred Heart -1.0 Home ML -107 Away ML -112 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.8% MODEL PROB 59.2% VEGAS TRUE 49.5% VEGAS JUICED 51.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Iona 78 vs Sacred Heart 87 Total 165.4 Margin +8.4 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 164.5 @53%
Central Connecticut (5-3) @ Northeastern (3-5)	Northeastern (56.8%)	01:00 PM	43
01:00 PM CLOSE Central Connecticut @ Northeastern 5-3 vs 3-5 Central Connecticut 43.2% Northeastern 56.8% Model Pick Northeastern 56.8% Pick Spread Northeastern -2.0 Home ML -170 Away ML +145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -3.9% MODEL PROB 56.8% VEGAS TRUE 60.7% VEGAS JUICED 63.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Central Connecticut 77 vs Northeastern 74 Total 151.2 Margin -2.8 Spread DOG COVERS @36% Diff +4.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.8 @83%
Belmont (8-1) @ Middle Tennessee (5-3)	Middle Tennessee (54.8%) DOG	04:30 PM	65
04:30 PM +11.2% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG Belmont @ Middle Tennessee 8-1 vs 5-3 Belmont 45.2% Middle Tennessee 54.8% Model Pick Middle Tennessee 54.8% Pick Spread Middle Tennessee +2.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.2% MODEL PROB 54.8% VEGAS TRUE 43.6% VEGAS JUICED 45.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Belmont 75 vs Middle Tennessee 78 Total 153.1 Margin +3.1 Spread DOG COVERS @66% Diff +5.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.5 @54%
Texas Tech #19 (6-2) @ LSU (8-0)	Texas Tech (54.2%)	03:00 PM	86
03:00 PM Texas Tech #19 @ LSU 6-2 vs 8-0 Texas Tech 54.2% LSU 45.8% Model Pick Texas Tech 54.2% Pick Spread Texas Tech -5.5 Home ML +174 Away ML -210 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -10.8% MODEL PROB 54.2% VEGAS TRUE 65.0% VEGAS JUICED 67.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Texas Tech 87 vs LSU 74 Total 161.2 Margin -13.2 Spread FAV COVERS @28% Diff +7.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 153.8 @72%
Nevada (6-3) @ Washington State (3-6)	Washington State (52.0%) DOG	05:00 PM	48
05:00 PM +10.2% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG Nevada @ Washington State 6-3 vs 3-6 Nevada 48.0% Washington State 52.0% Model Pick Washington State 52.0% Pick Spread Washington State +2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -153 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.2% MODEL PROB 52.0% VEGAS TRUE 41.7% VEGAS JUICED 43.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Nevada 72 vs Washington State 76 Total 147.9 Margin +3.9 Spread DOG COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.2 @51%
North Texas (7-2) @ TCU (5-3)	TCU (51.8%) DOG	05:30 PM	68
05:30 PM UNDERDOG North Texas @ TCU 7-2 vs 5-3 North Texas 48.2% TCU 51.8% Model Pick TCU 51.8% Pick Spread TCU +9.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Texas 77 vs TCU 74 Total 150.6 Margin -2.6 Spread DOG COVERS @70% Diff -6.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 135.5 @88%
Florida Atlantic (5-3) @ Florida Gulf Coast (5-4)	Florida Gulf Coast (51.7%) DOG	02:00 PM	48
02:00 PM +9.9% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG Florida Atlantic @ Florida Gulf Coast 5-3 vs 5-4 Florida Atlantic 48.3% Florida Gulf Coast 51.7% Model Pick Florida Gulf Coast 51.7% Pick Spread Florida Gulf Coast +3.0 Home ML +129 Away ML -154 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.9% MODEL PROB 51.7% VEGAS TRUE 41.8% VEGAS JUICED 43.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Florida Atlantic 76 vs Florida Gulf Coast 80 Total 156.4 Margin +3.4 Spread DOG COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 150.8 @67%

RECOMMENDED PICKS CRITERIA

Edge ≥ 4.0 pts • Spread ≤ 12 pts • Confidence ≥ 65%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
UNLV (3-5) @ Stanford (7-1)	Stanford (79.0%)	04:00 PM	31
04:00 PM+9.8 PTS EDGE UNLV @ Stanford 3-5 vs 7-1 UNLV 21.0% Stanford 79.0% Model Pick Stanford (79.0%) Pick Spread Stanford -9.0 Home ML -525 Away ML +375 SPREAD EDGE +9.8 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +19.1 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UNLV 75 vs Stanford 94 Total 168.9 Margin +19.1 Spread FAV COVERS @78% Diff +9.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 165.0 @62%
Georgetown (7-2) @ North Carolina #16 (7-1)	North Carolina (84.3%)	05:00 PM	51
05:00 PM+8.6 PTS EDGE Georgetown @ North Carolina #16 7-2 vs 7-1 Georgetown 15.7% North Carolina 84.3% Model Pick North Carolina (84.3%) Pick Spread North Carolina -10.5 Home ML -800 Away ML +525 SPREAD EDGE +8.6 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +19.1 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Georgetown 67 vs North Carolina 86 Total 153.9 Margin +19.1 Spread FAV COVERS @75% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 150.5 @60%
Manhattan (4-5) @ Marist (5-2)	Marist (74.2%)	02:00 PM	36
02:00 PM+7.5 PTS EDGE Manhattan @ Marist 4-5 vs 5-2 Manhattan 25.8% Marist 74.2% Model Pick Marist (74.2%) Pick Spread Marist -7.5 Home ML -380 Away ML +290 SPREAD EDGE +7.5 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +15.0 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Manhattan 61 vs Marist 76 Total 137.4 Margin +15.0 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 140.8 @60%
Creighton (5-3) @ Nebraska (8-0)	Nebraska (71.0%)	05:00 PM	49
05:00 PM+7.2 PTS EDGE Creighton @ Nebraska 5-3 vs 8-0 Creighton 29.0% Nebraska 71.0% Model Pick Nebraska (71.0%) Pick Spread Nebraska -5.0 Home ML -218 Away ML +182 SPREAD EDGE +7.2 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +12.4 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Creighton 72 vs Nebraska 85 Total 157.2 Margin +12.4 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 155.8 @54%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Belmont (8-1) @ Middle Tennessee (5-3)	Middle Tennessee (54.8%) DOG	04:30 PM	65
04:30 PM+11.2% EDGE Belmont @ Middle Tennessee 8-1 vs 5-3 Belmont 45.2% Middle Tennessee 54.8% Model Pick Middle Tennessee 54.8% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.2% MODEL PROB 54.8% VEGAS TRUE 43.6% VEGAS JUICED 45.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Belmont 75 vs Middle Tennessee 78 Total 153.1 Margin +3.1 Spread DOG COVERS @66% Diff +5.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.5 @54%
Nevada (6-3) @ Washington State (3-6)	Washington State (52.0%) DOG	05:00 PM	48
05:00 PM+10.2% EDGE Nevada @ Washington State 6-3 vs 3-6 Nevada 48.0% Washington State 52.0% Model Pick Washington State 52.0% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -153 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.2% MODEL PROB 52.0% VEGAS TRUE 41.7% VEGAS JUICED 43.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Nevada 72 vs Washington State 76 Total 147.9 Margin +3.9 Spread DOG COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.2 @51%
Florida Atlantic (5-3) @ Florida Gulf Coast (5-4)	Florida Gulf Coast (51.7%) DOG	02:00 PM	48
02:00 PM+9.9% EDGE Florida Atlantic @ Florida Gulf Coast 5-3 vs 5-4 Florida Atlantic 48.3% Florida Gulf Coast 51.7% Model Pick Florida Gulf Coast 51.7% Pick Spread +3.0 Home ML +129 Away ML -154 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.9% MODEL PROB 51.7% VEGAS TRUE 41.8% VEGAS JUICED 43.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Florida Atlantic 76 vs Florida Gulf Coast 80 Total 156.4 Margin +3.4 Spread DOG COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 150.8 @67%
Iona (6-3) @ Sacred Heart (3-5)	Sacred Heart (59.2%)	02:00 PM	41
02:00 PM+9.8% EDGE Iona @ Sacred Heart 6-3 vs 3-5 Iona 40.8% Sacred Heart 59.2% Model Pick Sacred Heart 59.2% Pick Spread -1.0 Home ML -107 Away ML -112 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.8% MODEL PROB 59.2% VEGAS TRUE 49.5% VEGAS JUICED 51.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Iona 78 vs Sacred Heart 87 Total 165.4 Margin +8.4 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 164.5 @53%
SMU (8-1) @ Texas A&M (7-2)	Texas A&M (63.8%)	05:00 PM	61
05:00 PM+7.9% EDGE SMU @ Texas A&M 8-1 vs 7-2 SMU 36.2% Texas A&M 63.8% Model Pick Texas A&M 63.8% Pick Spread -1.5 Home ML -144 Away ML +114 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.9% MODEL PROB 63.8% VEGAS TRUE 55.9% VEGAS JUICED 59.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE SMU 83 vs Texas A&M 94 Total 176.7 Margin +11.1 Spread FAV COVERS @77% Diff +9.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 164.2 @83%
Alabama A&M (4-3) @ Lipscomb (5-4)	Lipscomb (84.9%)	05:00 PM	15
05:00 PM+6.2% EDGE Alabama A&M @ Lipscomb 4-3 vs 5-4 Alabama A&M 15.1% Lipscomb 84.9% Model Pick Lipscomb 84.9% Pick Spread -10.0 Home ML -472 Away ML +347 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.2% MODEL PROB 84.9% VEGAS TRUE 78.7% VEGAS JUICED 82.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Alabama A&M 69 vs Lipscomb 81 Total 149.3 Margin +11.9 Spread FAV COVERS @55% Diff +1.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 145.8 @61%
Creighton (5-3) @ Nebraska (8-0)	Nebraska (71.0%)	05:00 PM	49
05:00 PM+5.0% EDGE Creighton @ Nebraska 5-3 vs 8-0 Creighton 29.0% Nebraska 71.0% Model Pick Nebraska 71.0% Pick Spread -5.0 Home ML -218 Away ML +182 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.0% MODEL PROB 71.0% VEGAS TRUE 66.0% VEGAS JUICED 68.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Creighton 72 vs Nebraska 85 Total 157.2 Margin +12.4 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 155.8 @54%
Fairfield (5-4) @ Merrimack (4-6)	Merrimack (62.3%)	01:00 PM	38
01:00 PM+4.1% EDGE Fairfield @ Merrimack 5-4 vs 4-6 Fairfield 37.7% Merrimack 62.3% Model Pick Merrimack 62.3% Pick Spread -3.5 Home ML -153 Away ML +130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.1% MODEL PROB 62.3% VEGAS TRUE 58.3% VEGAS JUICED 60.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fairfield 68 vs Merrimack 74 Total 142.6 Margin +5.8 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 144.2 @55%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Central Arkansas (4-5) @ East Texas A&M (4-4)	East Texas A&M (68.3%)	06:00 PM	32
06:00 PMCLOSE Central Arkansas @ East Texas A&M 4-5 vs 4-4 Central Arkansas 31.7% East Texas A&M 68.3% Model Pick East Texas A&M 68.3% Pick Spread East Texas A&M -2.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Central Arkansas 73 vs East Texas A&M 76 Total 148.9 Margin +3.1 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +0.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.2 @64%
SMU (8-1) @ Texas A&M (7-2)	Texas A&M (63.8%)	05:00 PM	61
05:00 PMCLOSE SMU @ Texas A&M 8-1 vs 7-2 SMU 36.2% Texas A&M 63.8% Model Pick Texas A&M 63.8% Pick Spread Texas A&M -1.5 Home ML -144 Away ML +114 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.9% MODEL PROB 63.8% VEGAS TRUE 55.9% VEGAS JUICED 59.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE SMU 83 vs Texas A&M 94 Total 176.7 Margin +11.1 Spread FAV COVERS @77% Diff +9.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 164.2 @83%
Austin Peay (4-4) @ UT Rio Grande Valley (2-5)	UT Rio Grande Valley (62.9%)	02:00 PM	37
02:00 PMCLOSE Austin Peay @ UT Rio Grande Valley 4-4 vs 2-5 Austin Peay 37.1% UT Rio Grande Valley 62.9% Model Pick UT Rio Grande Valley 62.9% Pick Spread UT Rio Grande Valley -3.0 Home ML -120 Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Austin Peay 76 vs UT Rio Grande Valley 73 Total 149.2 Margin -3.8 Spread DOG COVERS @29% Diff +7.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 150.5 @54%
Fairfield (5-4) @ Merrimack (4-6)	Merrimack (62.3%)	01:00 PM	38
01:00 PMCLOSE Fairfield @ Merrimack 5-4 vs 4-6 Fairfield 37.7% Merrimack 62.3% Model Pick Merrimack 62.3% Pick Spread Merrimack -3.5 Home ML -153 Away ML +130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.1% MODEL PROB 62.3% VEGAS TRUE 58.3% VEGAS JUICED 60.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fairfield 68 vs Merrimack 74 Total 142.6 Margin +5.8 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 144.2 @55%
Cornell (5-4) @ Samford (4-6)	Samford (59.3%) DOG	07:00 PM	41
07:00 PMCLOSE Cornell @ Samford 5-4 vs 4-6 Cornell 40.7% Samford 59.3% Model Pick Samford 59.3% Pick Spread Samford +0.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -120 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cornell 84 vs Samford 86 Total 170.3 Margin +2.3 Spread DOG COVERS @58% Diff +2.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 166.2 @62%
Iona (6-3) @ Sacred Heart (3-5)	Sacred Heart (59.2%)	02:00 PM	41
02:00 PMCLOSE Iona @ Sacred Heart 6-3 vs 3-5 Iona 40.8% Sacred Heart 59.2% Model Pick Sacred Heart 59.2% Pick Spread Sacred Heart -1.0 Home ML -107 Away ML -112 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.8% MODEL PROB 59.2% VEGAS TRUE 49.5% VEGAS JUICED 51.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Iona 78 vs Sacred Heart 87 Total 165.4 Margin +8.4 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 164.5 @53%
Central Connecticut (5-3) @ Northeastern (3-5)	Northeastern (56.8%)	01:00 PM	43
01:00 PMCLOSE Central Connecticut @ Northeastern 5-3 vs 3-5 Central Connecticut 43.2% Northeastern 56.8% Model Pick Northeastern 56.8% Pick Spread Northeastern -2.0 Home ML -170 Away ML +145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -3.9% MODEL PROB 56.8% VEGAS TRUE 60.7% VEGAS JUICED 63.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Central Connecticut 77 vs Northeastern 74 Total 151.2 Margin -2.8 Spread DOG COVERS @36% Diff +4.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.8 @83%
Belmont (8-1) @ Middle Tennessee (5-3)	Middle Tennessee (54.8%) DOG	04:30 PM	65
04:30 PMCLOSE Belmont @ Middle Tennessee 8-1 vs 5-3 Belmont 45.2% Middle Tennessee 54.8% Model Pick Middle Tennessee 54.8% Pick Spread Middle Tennessee +2.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.2% MODEL PROB 54.8% VEGAS TRUE 43.6% VEGAS JUICED 45.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Belmont 75 vs Middle Tennessee 78 Total 153.1 Margin +3.1 Spread DOG COVERS @66% Diff +5.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.5 @54%
Nevada (6-3) @ Washington State (3-6)	Washington State (52.0%) DOG	05:00 PM	48
05:00 PMCLOSE Nevada @ Washington State 6-3 vs 3-6 Nevada 48.0% Washington State 52.0% Model Pick Washington State 52.0% Pick Spread Washington State +2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -153 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.2% MODEL PROB 52.0% VEGAS TRUE 41.7% VEGAS JUICED 43.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Nevada 72 vs Washington State 76 Total 147.9 Margin +3.9 Spread DOG COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.2 @51%
Florida Atlantic (5-3) @ Florida Gulf Coast (5-4)	Florida Gulf Coast (51.7%) DOG	02:00 PM	48
02:00 PMCLOSE Florida Atlantic @ Florida Gulf Coast 5-3 vs 5-4 Florida Atlantic 48.3% Florida Gulf Coast 51.7% Model Pick Florida Gulf Coast 51.7% Pick Spread Florida Gulf Coast +3.0 Home ML +129 Away ML -154 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.9% MODEL PROB 51.7% VEGAS TRUE 41.8% VEGAS JUICED 43.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Florida Atlantic 76 vs Florida Gulf Coast 80 Total 156.4 Margin +3.4 Spread DOG COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 150.8 @67%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Cornell (5-4) @ Samford (4-6)	Samford (59.3%) DOG	+0.0%	07:00 PM	41
07:00 PMUNDERDOG ML Cornell @ Samford 5-4 vs 4-6 Cornell 40.7% Samford 59.3% Model Pick Samford 59.3% Pick Spread Samford +0.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -120 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cornell 84 vs Samford 86 Total 170.3 Margin +2.3 Spread DOG COVERS @58% Diff +2.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 166.2 @62%
Belmont (8-1) @ Middle Tennessee (5-3)	Middle Tennessee (54.8%) DOG	+11.2%	04:30 PM	65
04:30 PMUNDERDOG ML Belmont @ Middle Tennessee 8-1 vs 5-3 Belmont 45.2% Middle Tennessee 54.8% Model Pick Middle Tennessee 54.8% Pick Spread Middle Tennessee +2.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.2% MODEL PROB 54.8% VEGAS TRUE 43.6% VEGAS JUICED 45.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Belmont 75 vs Middle Tennessee 78 Total 153.1 Margin +3.1 Spread DOG COVERS @66% Diff +5.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.5 @54%
Nevada (6-3) @ Washington State (3-6)	Washington State (52.0%) DOG	+10.2%	05:00 PM	48
05:00 PMUNDERDOG ML Nevada @ Washington State 6-3 vs 3-6 Nevada 48.0% Washington State 52.0% Model Pick Washington State 52.0% Pick Spread Washington State +2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -153 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.2% MODEL PROB 52.0% VEGAS TRUE 41.7% VEGAS JUICED 43.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Nevada 72 vs Washington State 76 Total 147.9 Margin +3.9 Spread DOG COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.2 @51%
Florida Atlantic (5-3) @ Florida Gulf Coast (5-4)	Florida Gulf Coast (51.7%) DOG	+9.9%	02:00 PM	48
02:00 PMUNDERDOG ML Florida Atlantic @ Florida Gulf Coast 5-3 vs 5-4 Florida Atlantic 48.3% Florida Gulf Coast 51.7% Model Pick Florida Gulf Coast 51.7% Pick Spread Florida Gulf Coast +3.0 Home ML +129 Away ML -154 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.9% MODEL PROB 51.7% VEGAS TRUE 41.8% VEGAS JUICED 43.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Florida Atlantic 76 vs Florida Gulf Coast 80 Total 156.4 Margin +3.4 Spread DOG COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 150.8 @67%

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
Charlotte vs Utah State	Charlotte DOG	34.4%	+410	⭐⭐⭐ +75.6%	02:00 PM
Davidson vs Saint Mary's	Davidson DOG	37.5%	+300	⭐⭐⭐ +50.0%	02:00 PM
LSU vs Texas Tech	LSU DOG	45.8%	+174	⭐⭐⭐ +25.7%	03:00 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Belmont (8-1) @ Middle Tennessee (5-3)	Middle Tennessee (54.8%)	+11.2%	04:30 PM	65
04:30 PM+11.2% EDGE Belmont @ Middle Tennessee 8-1 vs 5-3 Belmont 45.2% Middle Tennessee 54.8% Model Pick Middle Tennessee 54.8% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.2% MODEL PROB 54.8% VEGAS TRUE 43.6% VEGAS JUICED 45.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Belmont 75 vs Middle Tennessee 78 Total 153.1 Margin +3.1 Spread DOG COVERS @66% Diff +5.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.5 @54%
Nevada (6-3) @ Washington State (3-6)	Washington State (52.0%)	+10.2%	05:00 PM	48
05:00 PM+10.2% EDGE Nevada @ Washington State 6-3 vs 3-6 Nevada 48.0% Washington State 52.0% Model Pick Washington State 52.0% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -153 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.2% MODEL PROB 52.0% VEGAS TRUE 41.7% VEGAS JUICED 43.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Nevada 72 vs Washington State 76 Total 147.9 Margin +3.9 Spread DOG COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.2 @51%
Florida Atlantic (5-3) @ Florida Gulf Coast (5-4)	Florida Gulf Coast (51.7%)	+9.9%	02:00 PM	48
02:00 PM+9.9% EDGE Florida Atlantic @ Florida Gulf Coast 5-3 vs 5-4 Florida Atlantic 48.3% Florida Gulf Coast 51.7% Model Pick Florida Gulf Coast 51.7% Pick Spread +3.0 Home ML +129 Away ML -154 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.9% MODEL PROB 51.7% VEGAS TRUE 41.8% VEGAS JUICED 43.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Florida Atlantic 76 vs Florida Gulf Coast 80 Total 156.4 Margin +3.4 Spread DOG COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 150.8 @67%
Iona (6-3) @ Sacred Heart (3-5)	Sacred Heart (59.2%)	+9.8%	02:00 PM	41
02:00 PM+9.8% EDGE Iona @ Sacred Heart 6-3 vs 3-5 Iona 40.8% Sacred Heart 59.2% Model Pick Sacred Heart 59.2% Pick Spread -1.0 Home ML -107 Away ML -112 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.8% MODEL PROB 59.2% VEGAS TRUE 49.5% VEGAS JUICED 51.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Iona 78 vs Sacred Heart 87 Total 165.4 Margin +8.4 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 164.5 @53%
SMU (8-1) @ Texas A&M (7-2)	Texas A&M (63.8%)	+7.9%	05:00 PM	61
05:00 PM+7.9% EDGE SMU @ Texas A&M 8-1 vs 7-2 SMU 36.2% Texas A&M 63.8% Model Pick Texas A&M 63.8% Pick Spread -1.5 Home ML -144 Away ML +114 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.9% MODEL PROB 63.8% VEGAS TRUE 55.9% VEGAS JUICED 59.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE SMU 83 vs Texas A&M 94 Total 176.7 Margin +11.1 Spread FAV COVERS @77% Diff +9.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 164.2 @83%
Alabama A&M (4-3) @ Lipscomb (5-4)	Lipscomb (84.9%)	+6.2%	05:00 PM	15
05:00 PM+6.2% EDGE Alabama A&M @ Lipscomb 4-3 vs 5-4 Alabama A&M 15.1% Lipscomb 84.9% Model Pick Lipscomb 84.9% Pick Spread -10.0 Home ML -472 Away ML +347 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.2% MODEL PROB 84.9% VEGAS TRUE 78.7% VEGAS JUICED 82.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Alabama A&M 69 vs Lipscomb 81 Total 149.3 Margin +11.9 Spread FAV COVERS @55% Diff +1.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 145.8 @61%
Creighton (5-3) @ Nebraska (8-0)	Nebraska (71.0%)	+5.0%	05:00 PM	49
05:00 PM+5.0% EDGE Creighton @ Nebraska 5-3 vs 8-0 Creighton 29.0% Nebraska 71.0% Model Pick Nebraska 71.0% Pick Spread -5.0 Home ML -218 Away ML +182 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.0% MODEL PROB 71.0% VEGAS TRUE 66.0% VEGAS JUICED 68.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Creighton 72 vs Nebraska 85 Total 157.2 Margin +12.4 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 155.8 @54%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Belmont (8-1) @ Middle Tennessee (5-3)	Middle Tennessee (54.8%)	+11.2%	04:30 PM	65
04:30 PM+11.2% EDGE Belmont @ Middle Tennessee 8-1 vs 5-3 Belmont 45.2% Middle Tennessee 54.8% Model Pick Middle Tennessee 54.8% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.2% MODEL PROB 54.8% VEGAS TRUE 43.6% VEGAS JUICED 45.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Belmont 75 vs Middle Tennessee 78 Total 153.1 Margin +3.1 Spread DOG COVERS @66% Diff +5.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.5 @54%
Nevada (6-3) @ Washington State (3-6)	Washington State (52.0%)	+10.2%	05:00 PM	48
05:00 PM+10.2% EDGE Nevada @ Washington State 6-3 vs 3-6 Nevada 48.0% Washington State 52.0% Model Pick Washington State 52.0% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -153 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.2% MODEL PROB 52.0% VEGAS TRUE 41.7% VEGAS JUICED 43.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Nevada 72 vs Washington State 76 Total 147.9 Margin +3.9 Spread DOG COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.2 @51%

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Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

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