Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Tuesday, December 09, 2025

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
North Carolina Central (3-8) @ Kentucky (5-4)	Kentucky (94.5%)	07:00 PM	6
07:00 PM North Carolina Central @ Kentucky 3-8 vs 5-4 North Carolina Central 5.5% Kentucky 94.5% Model Pick Kentucky 94.5% Pick Spread Kentucky -45.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Carolina Central 53 vs Kentucky 90 Total 142.6 Margin +37.4 Spread DOG COVERS @28% Diff -7.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.2 @64%
Coppin State (2-10) @ Saint Joseph's (5-3)	Saint Joseph's (92.8%)	07:00 PM	7
07:00 PM Coppin State @ Saint Joseph's 2-10 vs 5-3 Coppin State 7.2% Saint Joseph's 92.8% Model Pick Saint Joseph's 92.8% Pick Spread Saint Joseph's -21.5 Home ML -2100 Away ML +1100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.9% MODEL PROB 92.8% VEGAS TRUE 92.0% VEGAS JUICED 95.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Coppin State 62 vs Saint Joseph's 84 Total 145.5 Margin +21.7 Spread FAV COVERS @51% Diff +0.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.2 @55%
Bob Jones (0-1) @ Furman (6-4)	Furman (92.6%)	06:30 PM	7
06:30 PM Bob Jones @ Furman 0-1 vs 6-4 Bob Jones 7.4% Furman 92.6% Model Pick Furman 92.6% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Bob Jones 73 vs Furman 90 Total 163.2 Margin +17.0
Dominican (CA) (0-1) @ California (8-1)	California (92.6%)	10:00 PM	17
10:00 PM Dominican (CA) @ California 0-1 vs 8-1 Dominican (CA) 7.4% California 92.6% Model Pick California 92.6% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Dominican (CA) 81 vs California 90 Total 170.9 Margin +8.1
Oakwood (0-2) @ Chattanooga (4-5)	Chattanooga (92.6%)	07:00 PM	7
07:00 PM Oakwood @ Chattanooga 0-2 vs 4-5 Oakwood 7.4% Chattanooga 92.6% Model Pick Chattanooga 92.6% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Oakwood 83 vs Chattanooga 98 Total 180.7 Margin +15.1
Little Rock (2-7) @ West Virginia (7-3)	West Virginia (92.2%)	07:00 PM	8
07:00 PM Little Rock @ West Virginia 2-7 vs 7-3 Little Rock 7.8% West Virginia 92.2% Model Pick West Virginia 92.2% Pick Spread West Virginia -26.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Little Rock 54 vs West Virginia 73 Total 127.6 Margin +18.6 Spread DOG COVERS @27% Diff -7.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 131.8 @63%
Maryland Eastern Shore (4-8) @ Virginia #24 (8-1)	Virginia (92.2%)	07:00 PM	33
07:00 PM Maryland Eastern Shore @ Virginia #24 4-8 vs 8-1 Maryland Eastern Shore 7.8% Virginia 92.2% Model Pick Virginia 92.2% Pick Spread Virginia -37.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Maryland Eastern Shore 54 vs Virginia 84 Total 138.5 Margin +29.9 Spread DOG COVERS @28% Diff -7.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 135.5 @59%
Toccoa Falls (0-2) @ Winthrop (5-5)	Winthrop (91.9%)	06:30 PM	8
06:30 PM Toccoa Falls @ Winthrop 0-2 vs 5-5 Toccoa Falls 8.1% Winthrop 91.9% Model Pick Winthrop 91.9% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Toccoa Falls 86 vs Winthrop 101 Total 186.6 Margin +14.6
Dartmouth (3-4) @ Colorado State (7-2)	Colorado State (91.6%)	09:00 PM	18
09:00 PM Dartmouth @ Colorado State 3-4 vs 7-2 Dartmouth 8.4% Colorado State 91.6% Model Pick Colorado State 91.6% Pick Spread Colorado State -22.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Dartmouth 73 vs Colorado State 89 Total 161.3 Margin +16.1 Spread DOG COVERS @32% Diff -5.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 151.0 @79%
Morgan State (1-7) @ DePaul (6-3)	DePaul (90.9%)	08:00 PM	9
08:00 PM Morgan State @ DePaul 1-7 vs 6-3 Morgan State 9.1% DePaul 90.9% Model Pick DePaul 90.9% Pick Spread DePaul -23.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Morgan State 64 vs DePaul 82 Total 146.1 Margin +17.1 Spread DOG COVERS @31% Diff -6.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.0 @65%
Georgian Court (0-1) @ Temple (4-5)	Temple (89.5%)	07:00 PM	10
07:00 PM Georgian Court @ Temple 0-1 vs 4-5 Georgian Court 10.5% Temple 89.5% Model Pick Temple 89.5% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Georgian Court 78 vs Temple 92 Total 169.7 Margin +13.3
Villanova (7-1) @ Michigan #2 (8-0)	Michigan (88.3%)	06:30 PM	52
06:30 PM Villanova @ Michigan #2 7-1 vs 8-0 Villanova 11.7% Michigan 88.3% Model Pick Michigan 88.3% Pick Spread Michigan -16.0 Home ML -1850 Away ML +950 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.6% MODEL PROB 88.3% VEGAS TRUE 90.9% VEGAS JUICED 94.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Villanova 72 vs Michigan 90 Total 161.4 Margin +17.8 Spread FAV COVERS @55% Diff +1.5 Vegas O/U BET OVER 153.0 @74%
Brown (5-6) @ Providence (6-4)	Providence (87.7%)	07:30 PM	12
07:30 PM Brown @ Providence 5-6 vs 6-4 Brown 12.3% Providence 87.7% Model Pick Providence 87.7% Pick Spread Providence -18.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Brown 69 vs Providence 87 Total 156.4 Margin +18.0 Spread DOG COVERS @48% Diff -0.5 Vegas O/U BET OVER 147.8 @75%
Penn State (8-1) @ Indiana (7-2)	Indiana (86.2%)	08:30 PM	34
08:30 PM Penn State @ Indiana 8-1 vs 7-2 Penn State 13.8% Indiana 86.2% Model Pick Indiana 86.2% Pick Spread Indiana -14.5 Home ML -1800 Away ML +850 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -3.8% MODEL PROB 86.2% VEGAS TRUE 90.0% VEGAS JUICED 94.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Penn State 70 vs Indiana 86 Total 155.4 Margin +15.6 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +1.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 152.5 @59%
Northern Arizona (4-4) @ Arizona State (7-2)	Arizona State (86.0%)	09:00 PM	24
09:00 PM Northern Arizona @ Arizona State 4-4 vs 7-2 Northern Arizona 14.0% Arizona State 86.0% Model Pick Arizona State 86.0% Pick Spread Arizona State -17.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Northern Arizona 70 vs Arizona State 80 Total 150.5 Margin +9.9 Spread DOG COVERS @29% Diff -7.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.5 @53%
South Dakota (5-5) @ Wyoming (7-2)	Wyoming (82.0%)	08:30 PM	28
08:30 PM South Dakota @ Wyoming 5-5 vs 7-2 South Dakota 18.0% Wyoming 82.0% Model Pick Wyoming 82.0% Pick Spread Wyoming -14.0 Home ML -1100 Away ML +650 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -5.3% MODEL PROB 82.0% VEGAS TRUE 87.3% VEGAS JUICED 91.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE South Dakota 78 vs Wyoming 90 Total 168.7 Margin +11.7 Spread DOG COVERS @44% Diff -2.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 161.2 @72%
Brescia (0-1) @ Northern Kentucky (7-3)	Northern Kentucky (79.0%)	07:00 PM	21
07:00 PM Brescia @ Northern Kentucky 0-1 vs 7-3 Brescia 21.0% Northern Kentucky 79.0% Model Pick Northern Kentucky 79.0% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Brescia 63 vs Northern Kentucky 73 Total 136.0 Margin +10.2
Long Beach State (2-8) @ San José State (4-5)	San José State (75.8%)	10:00 PM	24
10:00 PM +3.3% EDGE Long Beach State @ San José State 2-8 vs 4-5 Long Beach State 24.2% San José State 75.8% Model Pick San José State 75.8% Pick Spread San José State -7.0 Home ML -307 Away ML +250 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.3% MODEL PROB 75.8% VEGAS TRUE 72.5% VEGAS JUICED 75.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Long Beach State 68 vs San José State 78 Total 145.9 Margin +9.3 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +2.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.0 @65%
Colorado Christian (0-1) @ Denver (3-6)	Denver (72.1%)	09:00 PM	28
09:00 PM Colorado Christian @ Denver 0-1 vs 3-6 Colorado Christian 27.9% Denver 72.1% Model Pick Denver 72.1% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Colorado Christian 82 vs Denver 90 Total 171.9 Margin +8.5
Southern Wesleyan (0-1) @ The Citadel (2-7)	The Citadel (71.2%)	07:00 PM	29
07:00 PM Southern Wesleyan @ The Citadel 0-1 vs 2-7 Southern Wesleyan 28.8% The Citadel 71.2% Model Pick The Citadel 71.2% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Southern Wesleyan 83 vs The Citadel 100 Total 183.4 Margin +17.2
Arkansas Baptist (0-1) @ UL Monroe (2-7)	UL Monroe (70.7%)	01:00 PM	29
01:00 PM Arkansas Baptist @ UL Monroe 0-1 vs 2-7 Arkansas Baptist 29.3% UL Monroe 70.7% Model Pick UL Monroe 70.7% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Arkansas Baptist 75 vs UL Monroe 83 Total 157.7 Margin +8.5
Buffalo (8-1) @ UMBC (6-3)	UMBC (70.5%)	05:00 PM	50
05:00 PM Buffalo @ UMBC 8-1 vs 6-3 Buffalo 29.5% UMBC 70.5% Model Pick UMBC 70.5% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Buffalo 68 vs UMBC 75 Total 143.7 Margin +7.1
Clemson (7-2) @ BYU #10 (7-1)	BYU (69.4%)	06:30 PM	66
06:30 PM Clemson @ BYU #10 7-2 vs 7-1 Clemson 30.6% BYU 69.4% Model Pick BYU 69.4% Pick Spread BYU -5.5 Home ML -274 Away ML +225 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.0% MODEL PROB 69.4% VEGAS TRUE 70.4% VEGAS JUICED 73.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Clemson 71 vs BYU 86 Total 156.6 Margin +14.4 Spread FAV COVERS @75% Diff +8.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 151.2 @66%
South Dakota State (5-5) @ Ball State (3-6)	South Dakota State (66.8%)	07:00 PM	33
07:00 PM South Dakota State @ Ball State 5-5 vs 3-6 South Dakota State 66.8% Ball State 33.2% Model Pick South Dakota State 66.8% Pick Spread South Dakota State -6.0 Home ML +235 Away ML -285 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -4.4% MODEL PROB 66.8% VEGAS TRUE 71.3% VEGAS JUICED 74.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE South Dakota State 68 vs Ball State 71 Total 139.0 Margin +2.2 Spread DOG COVERS @74% Diff +8.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 140.2 @54%
USC (8-1) @ San Diego (3-5)	USC (65.3%)	09:00 PM	45
09:00 PM USC @ San Diego 8-1 vs 3-5 USC 65.3% San Diego 34.7% Model Pick USC 65.3% Pick Spread USC -15.0 Home ML +950 Away ML -2000 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -25.6% MODEL PROB 65.3% VEGAS TRUE 90.9% VEGAS JUICED 95.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE USC 78 vs San Diego 72 Total 149.4 Margin -6.0 Spread DOG COVERS @76% Diff -9.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 157.2 @73%
Florida #18 (5-3) @ UConn #5 (8-1)	UConn (60.8%)	09:00 PM	94
09:00 PM CLOSE Florida #18 @ UConn #5 5-3 vs 8-1 Florida 39.2% UConn 60.8% Model Pick UConn 60.8% Pick Spread UConn -3.5 Home ML -219 Away ML +180 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -5.0% MODEL PROB 60.8% VEGAS TRUE 65.8% VEGAS JUICED 68.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Florida 65 vs UConn 76 Total 140.8 Margin +11.6 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +8.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 145.8 @65%
Loyola Maryland (4-6) @ VMI (4-7)	VMI (58.3%) DOG	06:00 PM	42
06:00 PM +7.5% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG Loyola Maryland @ VMI 4-6 vs 4-7 Loyola Maryland 41.7% VMI 58.3% Model Pick VMI 58.3% Pick Spread VMI +1.5 Home ML -114 Away ML -106 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.5% MODEL PROB 58.3% VEGAS TRUE 50.9% VEGAS JUICED 53.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Loyola Maryland 72 vs VMI 80 Total 151.9 Margin +8.7 Spread DOG COVERS @78% Diff +10.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.8 @60%
North Carolina A&T (4-3) @ Howard (5-5)	Howard (58.3%) DOG	07:00 PM	42
07:00 PM +14.7% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG North Carolina A&T @ Howard 4-3 vs 5-5 North Carolina A&T 41.7% Howard 58.3% Model Pick Howard 58.3% Pick Spread Howard +2.5 Home ML +120 Away ML -142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +14.7% MODEL PROB 58.3% VEGAS TRUE 43.7% VEGAS JUICED 45.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Carolina A&T 69 vs Howard 75 Total 144.0 Margin +6.8 Spread DOG COVERS @76% Diff +9.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.5 @61%
Columbia (9-1) @ Stony Brook (6-3)	Columbia (56.6%)	07:00 PM	63
07:00 PM Columbia @ Stony Brook 9-1 vs 6-3 Columbia 56.6% Stony Brook 43.4% Model Pick Columbia 56.6% Pick Spread Columbia -4.5 Home ML +167 Away ML -200 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -7.5% MODEL PROB 56.6% VEGAS TRUE 64.1% VEGAS JUICED 66.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Columbia 71 vs Stony Brook 75 Total 145.5 Margin +3.7 Spread DOG COVERS @74% Diff +8.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.2 @52%
McNeese (7-2) @ Rhode Island (7-3)	Rhode Island (53.1%) DOG	07:00 PM	67
07:00 PM +8.9% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG McNeese @ Rhode Island 7-2 vs 7-3 McNeese 46.9% Rhode Island 53.1% Model Pick Rhode Island 53.1% Pick Spread Rhode Island +1.5 Home ML +117 Away ML -137 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.9% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 44.3% VEGAS JUICED 46.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE McNeese 71 vs Rhode Island 74 Total 145.3 Margin +3.3 Spread DOG COVERS @64% Diff +4.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 142.5 @59%
Bucknell (2-9) @ Rider (1-7)	Rider (51.5%) DOG	07:00 PM	48
07:00 PM CLOSEUNDERDOG Bucknell @ Rider 2-9 vs 1-7 Bucknell 48.5% Rider 51.5% Model Pick Rider 51.5% Pick Spread Rider +2.5 Home ML N/A Away ML -139 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Bucknell 67 vs Rider 62 Total 128.7 Margin -4.9 Spread FAV COVERS @43% Diff +2.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 136.2 @72%
Illinois #13 (7-2) @ Ohio State (7-1)	Ohio State (50.8%) DOG	07:30 PM	84
07:30 PM +13.5% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG Illinois #13 @ Ohio State 7-2 vs 7-1 Illinois 49.2% Ohio State 50.8% Model Pick Ohio State 50.8% Pick Spread Ohio State +3.5 Home ML +157 Away ML -187 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.5% MODEL PROB 50.8% VEGAS TRUE 37.3% VEGAS JUICED 38.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Illinois 76 vs Ohio State 81 Total 157.1 Margin +5.1 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.2 @60%

RECOMMENDED PICKS CRITERIA

Edge ≥ 4.0 pts • Spread ≤ 12 pts • Confidence ≥ 65%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
North Carolina A&T (4-3) @ Howard (5-5)	Howard (58.3%) DOG	07:00 PM	42
07:00 PM+14.7% EDGE North Carolina A&T @ Howard 4-3 vs 5-5 North Carolina A&T 41.7% Howard 58.3% Model Pick Howard 58.3% Pick Spread +2.5 Home ML +120 Away ML -142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +14.7% MODEL PROB 58.3% VEGAS TRUE 43.7% VEGAS JUICED 45.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Carolina A&T 69 vs Howard 75 Total 144.0 Margin +6.8 Spread DOG COVERS @76% Diff +9.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.5 @61%
Illinois #13 (7-2) @ Ohio State (7-1)	Ohio State (50.8%) DOG	07:30 PM	84
07:30 PM+13.5% EDGE Illinois #13 @ Ohio State 7-2 vs 7-1 Illinois 49.2% Ohio State 50.8% Model Pick Ohio State 50.8% Pick Spread +3.5 Home ML +157 Away ML -187 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.5% MODEL PROB 50.8% VEGAS TRUE 37.3% VEGAS JUICED 38.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Illinois 76 vs Ohio State 81 Total 157.1 Margin +5.1 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.2 @60%
McNeese (7-2) @ Rhode Island (7-3)	Rhode Island (53.1%) DOG	07:00 PM	67
07:00 PM+8.9% EDGE McNeese @ Rhode Island 7-2 vs 7-3 McNeese 46.9% Rhode Island 53.1% Model Pick Rhode Island 53.1% Pick Spread +1.5 Home ML +117 Away ML -137 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.9% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 44.3% VEGAS JUICED 46.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE McNeese 71 vs Rhode Island 74 Total 145.3 Margin +3.3 Spread DOG COVERS @64% Diff +4.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 142.5 @59%
Loyola Maryland (4-6) @ VMI (4-7)	VMI (58.3%) DOG	06:00 PM	42
06:00 PM+7.5% EDGE Loyola Maryland @ VMI 4-6 vs 4-7 Loyola Maryland 41.7% VMI 58.3% Model Pick VMI 58.3% Pick Spread +1.5 Home ML -114 Away ML -106 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.5% MODEL PROB 58.3% VEGAS TRUE 50.9% VEGAS JUICED 53.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Loyola Maryland 72 vs VMI 80 Total 151.9 Margin +8.7 Spread DOG COVERS @78% Diff +10.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.8 @60%
Long Beach State (2-8) @ San José State (4-5)	San José State (75.8%)	10:00 PM	24
10:00 PM+3.3% EDGE Long Beach State @ San José State 2-8 vs 4-5 Long Beach State 24.2% San José State 75.8% Model Pick San José State 75.8% Pick Spread -7.0 Home ML -307 Away ML +250 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.3% MODEL PROB 75.8% VEGAS TRUE 72.5% VEGAS JUICED 75.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Long Beach State 68 vs San José State 78 Total 145.9 Margin +9.3 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +2.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.0 @65%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Florida #18 (5-3) @ UConn #5 (8-1)	UConn (60.8%)	09:00 PM	94
09:00 PMCLOSE Florida #18 @ UConn #5 5-3 vs 8-1 Florida 39.2% UConn 60.8% Model Pick UConn 60.8% Pick Spread UConn -3.5 Home ML -219 Away ML +180 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -5.0% MODEL PROB 60.8% VEGAS TRUE 65.8% VEGAS JUICED 68.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Florida 65 vs UConn 76 Total 140.8 Margin +11.6 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +8.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 145.8 @65%
Loyola Maryland (4-6) @ VMI (4-7)	VMI (58.3%) DOG	06:00 PM	42
06:00 PMCLOSE Loyola Maryland @ VMI 4-6 vs 4-7 Loyola Maryland 41.7% VMI 58.3% Model Pick VMI 58.3% Pick Spread VMI +1.5 Home ML -114 Away ML -106 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.5% MODEL PROB 58.3% VEGAS TRUE 50.9% VEGAS JUICED 53.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Loyola Maryland 72 vs VMI 80 Total 151.9 Margin +8.7 Spread DOG COVERS @78% Diff +10.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.8 @60%
North Carolina A&T (4-3) @ Howard (5-5)	Howard (58.3%) DOG	07:00 PM	42
07:00 PMCLOSE North Carolina A&T @ Howard 4-3 vs 5-5 North Carolina A&T 41.7% Howard 58.3% Model Pick Howard 58.3% Pick Spread Howard +2.5 Home ML +120 Away ML -142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +14.7% MODEL PROB 58.3% VEGAS TRUE 43.7% VEGAS JUICED 45.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Carolina A&T 69 vs Howard 75 Total 144.0 Margin +6.8 Spread DOG COVERS @76% Diff +9.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.5 @61%
McNeese (7-2) @ Rhode Island (7-3)	Rhode Island (53.1%) DOG	07:00 PM	67
07:00 PMCLOSE McNeese @ Rhode Island 7-2 vs 7-3 McNeese 46.9% Rhode Island 53.1% Model Pick Rhode Island 53.1% Pick Spread Rhode Island +1.5 Home ML +117 Away ML -137 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.9% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 44.3% VEGAS JUICED 46.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE McNeese 71 vs Rhode Island 74 Total 145.3 Margin +3.3 Spread DOG COVERS @64% Diff +4.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 142.5 @59%
Bucknell (2-9) @ Rider (1-7)	Rider (51.5%) DOG	07:00 PM	48
07:00 PMCLOSE Bucknell @ Rider 2-9 vs 1-7 Bucknell 48.5% Rider 51.5% Model Pick Rider 51.5% Pick Spread Rider +2.5 Home ML N/A Away ML -139 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Bucknell 67 vs Rider 62 Total 128.7 Margin -4.9 Spread FAV COVERS @43% Diff +2.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 136.2 @72%
Illinois #13 (7-2) @ Ohio State (7-1)	Ohio State (50.8%) DOG	07:30 PM	84
07:30 PMCLOSE Illinois #13 @ Ohio State 7-2 vs 7-1 Illinois 49.2% Ohio State 50.8% Model Pick Ohio State 50.8% Pick Spread Ohio State +3.5 Home ML +157 Away ML -187 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.5% MODEL PROB 50.8% VEGAS TRUE 37.3% VEGAS JUICED 38.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Illinois 76 vs Ohio State 81 Total 157.1 Margin +5.1 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.2 @60%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
North Carolina A&T (4-3) @ Howard (5-5)	Howard (58.3%) DOG	+14.7%	07:00 PM	42
07:00 PMUNDERDOG ML North Carolina A&T @ Howard 4-3 vs 5-5 North Carolina A&T 41.7% Howard 58.3% Model Pick Howard 58.3% Pick Spread Howard +2.5 Home ML +120 Away ML -142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +14.7% MODEL PROB 58.3% VEGAS TRUE 43.7% VEGAS JUICED 45.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Carolina A&T 69 vs Howard 75 Total 144.0 Margin +6.8 Spread DOG COVERS @76% Diff +9.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.5 @61%
McNeese (7-2) @ Rhode Island (7-3)	Rhode Island (53.1%) DOG	+8.9%	07:00 PM	67
07:00 PMUNDERDOG ML McNeese @ Rhode Island 7-2 vs 7-3 McNeese 46.9% Rhode Island 53.1% Model Pick Rhode Island 53.1% Pick Spread Rhode Island +1.5 Home ML +117 Away ML -137 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.9% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 44.3% VEGAS JUICED 46.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE McNeese 71 vs Rhode Island 74 Total 145.3 Margin +3.3 Spread DOG COVERS @64% Diff +4.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 142.5 @59%
Bucknell (2-9) @ Rider (1-7)	Rider (51.5%) DOG	+0.0%	07:00 PM	48
07:00 PMUNDERDOG ML Bucknell @ Rider 2-9 vs 1-7 Bucknell 48.5% Rider 51.5% Model Pick Rider 51.5% Pick Spread Rider +2.5 Home ML N/A Away ML -139 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Bucknell 67 vs Rider 62 Total 128.7 Margin -4.9 Spread FAV COVERS @43% Diff +2.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 136.2 @72%
Illinois #13 (7-2) @ Ohio State (7-1)	Ohio State (50.8%) DOG	+13.5%	07:30 PM	84
07:30 PMUNDERDOG ML Illinois #13 @ Ohio State 7-2 vs 7-1 Illinois 49.2% Ohio State 50.8% Model Pick Ohio State 50.8% Pick Spread Ohio State +3.5 Home ML +157 Away ML -187 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.5% MODEL PROB 50.8% VEGAS TRUE 37.3% VEGAS JUICED 38.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Illinois 76 vs Ohio State 81 Total 157.1 Margin +5.1 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.2 @60%

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
San Diego vs USC	San Diego DOG	34.7%	+950	⭐⭐⭐ +264.0%	09:00 PM
South Dakota @ Wyoming	South Dakota DOG	18.0%	+650	⭐⭐⭐ +34.7%	08:30 PM
Ohio State vs Illinois	Ohio State DOG	50.8%	+157	⭐⭐⭐ +30.8%	07:30 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
North Carolina A&T (4-3) @ Howard (5-5)	Howard (58.3%)	+14.7%	07:00 PM	42
07:00 PM+14.7% EDGE North Carolina A&T @ Howard 4-3 vs 5-5 North Carolina A&T 41.7% Howard 58.3% Model Pick Howard 58.3% Pick Spread +2.5 Home ML +120 Away ML -142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +14.7% MODEL PROB 58.3% VEGAS TRUE 43.7% VEGAS JUICED 45.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Carolina A&T 69 vs Howard 75 Total 144.0 Margin +6.8 Spread DOG COVERS @76% Diff +9.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.5 @61%
Illinois #13 (7-2) @ Ohio State (7-1)	Ohio State (50.8%)	+13.5%	07:30 PM	84
07:30 PM+13.5% EDGE Illinois #13 @ Ohio State 7-2 vs 7-1 Illinois 49.2% Ohio State 50.8% Model Pick Ohio State 50.8% Pick Spread +3.5 Home ML +157 Away ML -187 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.5% MODEL PROB 50.8% VEGAS TRUE 37.3% VEGAS JUICED 38.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Illinois 76 vs Ohio State 81 Total 157.1 Margin +5.1 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.2 @60%
McNeese (7-2) @ Rhode Island (7-3)	Rhode Island (53.1%)	+8.9%	07:00 PM	67
07:00 PM+8.9% EDGE McNeese @ Rhode Island 7-2 vs 7-3 McNeese 46.9% Rhode Island 53.1% Model Pick Rhode Island 53.1% Pick Spread +1.5 Home ML +117 Away ML -137 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.9% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 44.3% VEGAS JUICED 46.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE McNeese 71 vs Rhode Island 74 Total 145.3 Margin +3.3 Spread DOG COVERS @64% Diff +4.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 142.5 @59%
Loyola Maryland (4-6) @ VMI (4-7)	VMI (58.3%)	+7.5%	06:00 PM	42
06:00 PM+7.5% EDGE Loyola Maryland @ VMI 4-6 vs 4-7 Loyola Maryland 41.7% VMI 58.3% Model Pick VMI 58.3% Pick Spread +1.5 Home ML -114 Away ML -106 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.5% MODEL PROB 58.3% VEGAS TRUE 50.9% VEGAS JUICED 53.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Loyola Maryland 72 vs VMI 80 Total 151.9 Margin +8.7 Spread DOG COVERS @78% Diff +10.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.8 @60%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
North Carolina A&T (4-3) @ Howard (5-5)	Howard (58.3%)	+14.7%	07:00 PM	42
07:00 PM+14.7% EDGE North Carolina A&T @ Howard 4-3 vs 5-5 North Carolina A&T 41.7% Howard 58.3% Model Pick Howard 58.3% Pick Spread +2.5 Home ML +120 Away ML -142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +14.7% MODEL PROB 58.3% VEGAS TRUE 43.7% VEGAS JUICED 45.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Carolina A&T 69 vs Howard 75 Total 144.0 Margin +6.8 Spread DOG COVERS @76% Diff +9.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.5 @61%
Illinois #13 (7-2) @ Ohio State (7-1)	Ohio State (50.8%)	+13.5%	07:30 PM	84
07:30 PM+13.5% EDGE Illinois #13 @ Ohio State 7-2 vs 7-1 Illinois 49.2% Ohio State 50.8% Model Pick Ohio State 50.8% Pick Spread +3.5 Home ML +157 Away ML -187 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.5% MODEL PROB 50.8% VEGAS TRUE 37.3% VEGAS JUICED 38.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Illinois 76 vs Ohio State 81 Total 157.1 Margin +5.1 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.2 @60%

Model Information

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Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

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