Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Wednesday, December 10, 2025

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
Jackson State (1-7) @ Houston #7 (8-1)	Houston (95.2%)	08:00 PM	30
08:00 PM Jackson State @ Houston #7 1-7 vs 8-1 Jackson State 4.8% Houston 95.2% Model Pick Houston 95.2% Pick Spread Houston -40.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Jackson State 54 vs Houston 85 Total 138.9 Margin +31.5 Spread DOG COVERS @24% Diff -9.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 136.5 @57%
Minnesota (5-4) @ Purdue #6 (8-1)	Purdue (93.3%)	07:00 PM	32
07:00 PM Minnesota @ Purdue #6 5-4 vs 8-1 Minnesota 6.7% Purdue 93.3% Model Pick Purdue 93.3% Pick Spread Purdue -20.0 Home ML -2800 Away ML +1300 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.2% MODEL PROB 93.3% VEGAS TRUE 93.1% VEGAS JUICED 96.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Minnesota 62 vs Purdue 77 Total 139.0 Margin +15.0 Spread DOG COVERS @34% Diff -5.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.8 @61%
Tougaloo (0-1) @ Tulane (6-3)	Tulane (92.8%)	07:30 PM	7
07:30 PM Tougaloo @ Tulane 0-1 vs 6-3 Tougaloo 7.2% Tulane 92.8% Model Pick Tulane 92.8% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Tougaloo 68 vs Tulane 78 Total 146.6 Margin +10.2
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (1-9) @ Tulsa (8-1)	Tulsa (91.9%)	08:00 PM	18
08:00 PM Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Tulsa 1-9 vs 8-1 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 8.1% Tulsa 91.9% Model Pick Tulsa 91.9% Pick Spread Tulsa -23.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Arkansas-Pine Bluff 66 vs Tulsa 97 Total 163.1 Margin +30.9 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +8.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 157.2 @67%
Delaware (2-6) @ George Washington (8-2)	George Washington (91.3%)	07:00 PM	19
07:00 PM Delaware @ George Washington 2-6 vs 8-2 Delaware 8.7% George Washington 91.3% Model Pick George Washington 91.3% Pick Spread George Washington -23.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Delaware 65 vs George Washington 89 Total 154.0 Margin +24.2 Spread FAV COVERS @54% Diff +1.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 155.0 @53%
UAlbany (3-7) @ Yale (10-1)	Yale (90.7%)	04:30 PM	24
04:30 PM UAlbany @ Yale 3-7 vs 10-1 UAlbany 9.3% Yale 90.7% Model Pick Yale 90.7% Pick Spread Yale -18.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UAlbany 64 vs Yale 86 Total 149.6 Margin +21.6 Spread FAV COVERS @59% Diff +3.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 146.5 @59%
Norfolk State (4-6) @ Baylor (6-2)	Baylor (90.7%)	12:00 PM	19
12:00 PM Norfolk State @ Baylor 4-6 vs 6-2 Norfolk State 9.3% Baylor 90.7% Model Pick Baylor 90.7% Pick Spread Baylor -27.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Norfolk State 69 vs Baylor 88 Total 156.7 Margin +18.5 Spread DOG COVERS @26% Diff -8.5 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.5 @74%
Lamar (5-3) @ San Diego State (4-3)	San Diego State (88.6%)	10:00 PM	11
10:00 PM Lamar @ San Diego State 5-3 vs 4-3 Lamar 11.4% San Diego State 88.6% Model Pick San Diego State 88.6% Pick Spread San Diego State -19.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Lamar 63 vs San Diego State 74 Total 136.8 Margin +11.4 Spread DOG COVERS @28% Diff -7.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 136.5 @51%
College Of Biblical Studies (0-6) @ Nicholls (1-7)	Nicholls (87.9%)	07:30 PM	12
07:30 PM College Of Biblical Studies @ Nicholls 0-6 vs 1-7 College Of Biblical Studies 12.1% Nicholls 87.9% Model Pick Nicholls 87.9% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE College Of Biblical Studies 68 vs Nicholls 78 Total 145.8 Margin +10.6
Fairleigh Dickinson (2-7) @ Fordham (6-4)	Fordham (85.7%)	07:00 PM	14
07:00 PM Fairleigh Dickinson @ Fordham 2-7 vs 6-4 Fairleigh Dickinson 14.3% Fordham 85.7% Model Pick Fordham 85.7% Pick Spread Fordham -12.5 Home ML -1100 Away ML +650 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.6% MODEL PROB 85.7% VEGAS TRUE 87.3% VEGAS JUICED 91.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fairleigh Dickinson 68 vs Fordham 84 Total 152.1 Margin +16.7 Spread FAV COVERS @63% Diff +4.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.5 @79%
Duquesne (6-3) @ Boise State (6-3)	Boise State (85.2%)	09:00 PM	35
09:00 PM Duquesne @ Boise State 6-3 vs 6-3 Duquesne 14.8% Boise State 85.2% Model Pick Boise State 85.2% Pick Spread Boise State -14.0 Home ML -912 Away ML +577 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.8% MODEL PROB 85.2% VEGAS TRUE 85.9% VEGAS JUICED 90.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Duquesne 72 vs Boise State 86 Total 158.1 Margin +14.5 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 149.8 @74%
Idaho (6-3) @ Notre Dame (7-3)	Notre Dame (81.9%)	07:00 PM	38
07:00 PM Idaho @ Notre Dame 6-3 vs 7-3 Idaho 18.1% Notre Dame 81.9% Model Pick Notre Dame 81.9% Pick Spread Notre Dame -11.0 Home ML -800 Away ML +525 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.8% MODEL PROB 81.9% VEGAS TRUE 84.7% VEGAS JUICED 88.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Idaho 74 vs Notre Dame 82 Total 156.5 Margin +7.7 Spread DOG COVERS @41% Diff -3.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 142.8 @85%
New Mexico (7-2) @ VCU (6-3)	VCU (81.1%)	07:00 PM	39
07:00 PM New Mexico @ VCU 7-2 vs 6-3 New Mexico 18.9% VCU 81.1% Model Pick VCU 81.1% Pick Spread VCU -10.0 Home ML -480 Away ML +350 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.2% MODEL PROB 81.1% VEGAS TRUE 78.8% VEGAS JUICED 82.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Mexico 71 vs VCU 80 Total 150.8 Margin +9.4 Spread DOG COVERS @49% Diff -0.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 156.2 @66%
Idaho State (6-4) @ Utah Valley (6-3)	Utah Valley (80.4%)	08:00 PM	20
08:00 PM Idaho State @ Utah Valley 6-4 vs 6-3 Idaho State 19.6% Utah Valley 80.4% Model Pick Utah Valley 80.4% Pick Spread Utah Valley -11.5 Home ML -750 Away ML +500 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -3.7% MODEL PROB 80.4% VEGAS TRUE 84.1% VEGAS JUICED 88.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Idaho State 63 vs Utah Valley 82 Total 145.5 Margin +19.3 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.5 @62%
Colgate (6-4) @ St. Bonaventure (9-1)	St. Bonaventure (78.8%)	07:00 PM	31
07:00 PM Colgate @ St. Bonaventure 6-4 vs 9-1 Colgate 21.2% St. Bonaventure 78.8% Model Pick St. Bonaventure 78.8% Pick Spread St. Bonaventure -9.5 Home ML -650 Away ML +450 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -3.9% MODEL PROB 78.8% VEGAS TRUE 82.7% VEGAS JUICED 86.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Colgate 68 vs St. Bonaventure 77 Total 145.5 Margin +8.5 Spread DOG COVERS @47% Diff -1.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 142.5 @59%
Liberty (6-2) @ NC State (6-3)	NC State (78.3%)	07:00 PM	42
07:00 PM Liberty @ NC State 6-2 vs 6-3 Liberty 21.7% NC State 78.3% Model Pick NC State 78.3% Pick Spread NC State -13.0 Home ML -1200 Away ML +700 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -9.7% MODEL PROB 78.3% VEGAS TRUE 88.1% VEGAS JUICED 92.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Liberty 74 vs NC State 76 Total 150.0 Margin +2.8 Spread DOG COVERS @22% Diff -10.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 153.0 @59%
Maine (0-11) @ Boston University (4-6)	Boston University (77.2%)	07:00 PM	23
07:00 PM Maine @ Boston University 0-11 vs 4-6 Maine 22.8% Boston University 77.2% Model Pick Boston University 77.2% Pick Spread Boston University -8.5 Home ML -412 Away ML +315 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.2% MODEL PROB 77.2% VEGAS TRUE 77.0% VEGAS JUICED 80.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Maine 61 vs Boston University 76 Total 137.5 Margin +15.1 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 129.0 @74%
Bryant (3-7) @ Iona (7-3)	Iona (75.3%)	07:00 PM	25
07:00 PM Bryant @ Iona 3-7 vs 7-3 Bryant 24.7% Iona 75.3% Model Pick Iona 75.3% Pick Spread Iona -9.0 Home ML -650 Away ML +450 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -7.4% MODEL PROB 75.3% VEGAS TRUE 82.7% VEGAS JUICED 86.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Bryant 62 vs Iona 78 Total 139.9 Margin +16.9 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +8.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.2 @74%
Charleston (4-5) @ South Florida (5-4)	South Florida (73.5%)	07:00 PM	26
07:00 PM Charleston @ South Florida 4-5 vs 5-4 Charleston 26.5% South Florida 73.5% Model Pick South Florida 73.5% Pick Spread South Florida -14.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Charleston 67 vs South Florida 84 Total 150.4 Margin +16.8 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.5 @78%
UT Martin (7-2) @ Southern Illinois (5-4)	Southern Illinois (73.5%)	08:00 PM	36
08:00 PM UT Martin @ Southern Illinois 7-2 vs 5-4 UT Martin 26.5% Southern Illinois 73.5% Model Pick Southern Illinois 73.5% Pick Spread Southern Illinois -8.0 Home ML -495 Away ML +365 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -6.0% MODEL PROB 73.5% VEGAS TRUE 79.5% VEGAS JUICED 83.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Martin 70 vs Southern Illinois 77 Total 146.3 Margin +7.1 Spread DOG COVERS @48% Diff -0.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 146.2 @50%
Eastern Michigan (6-4) @ Purdue Fort Wayne (5-6)	Purdue Fort Wayne (69.0%)	08:00 PM	31
08:00 PM +8.0% EDGECLOSE Eastern Michigan @ Purdue Fort Wayne 6-4 vs 5-6 Eastern Michigan 31.0% Purdue Fort Wayne 69.0% Model Pick Purdue Fort Wayne 69.0% Pick Spread Purdue Fort Wayne -2.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.0% MODEL PROB 69.0% VEGAS TRUE 60.9% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Eastern Michigan 72 vs Purdue Fort Wayne 81 Total 153.2 Margin +9.0 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.5 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.5 @64%
Bethesda University (0-4) @ Cal State Fullerton (3-7)	Cal State Fullerton (66.8%)	10:00 PM	33
10:00 PM Bethesda University @ Cal State Fullerton 0-4 vs 3-7 Bethesda University 33.2% Cal State Fullerton 66.8% Model Pick Cal State Fullerton 66.8% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Bethesda University 75 vs Cal State Fullerton 93 Total 168.0 Margin +18.0
Fresno State (6-4) @ Cal State Northridge (4-5)	Cal State Northridge (65.5%) DOG	10:00 PM	34
10:00 PM +11.8% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG Fresno State @ Cal State Northridge 6-4 vs 4-5 Fresno State 34.5% Cal State Northridge 65.5% Model Pick Cal State Northridge 65.5% Pick Spread Cal State Northridge +1.0 Home ML -127 Away ML +107 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.8% MODEL PROB 65.5% VEGAS TRUE 53.7% VEGAS JUICED 56.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fresno State 72 vs Cal State Northridge 76 Total 148.1 Margin +3.7 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff +5.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.0 @82%
Southern (4-5) @ Texas State (6-5)	Texas State (65.0%)	08:30 PM	35
08:30 PM +6.3% EDGECLOSE Southern @ Texas State 4-5 vs 6-5 Southern 35.0% Texas State 65.0% Model Pick Texas State 65.0% Pick Spread Texas State -3.0 Home ML -157 Away ML +132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.3% MODEL PROB 65.0% VEGAS TRUE 58.7% VEGAS JUICED 61.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Southern 73 vs Texas State 82 Total 155.3 Margin +9.5 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.8 @85%
Wisconsin (7-2) @ Nebraska #23 (9-0)	Nebraska (64.3%)	09:00 PM	71
09:00 PM CLOSE Wisconsin @ Nebraska #23 7-2 vs 9-0 Wisconsin 35.7% Nebraska 64.3% Model Pick Nebraska 64.3% Pick Spread Nebraska -2.0 Home ML -113 Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Wisconsin 75 vs Nebraska 78 Total 153.2 Margin +3.6 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +1.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 158.2 @65%
Western Kentucky (6-2) @ Marshall (5-4)	Marshall (63.9%)	07:00 PM	46
07:00 PM +14.2% EDGECLOSE Western Kentucky @ Marshall 6-2 vs 5-4 Western Kentucky 36.1% Marshall 63.9% Model Pick Marshall 63.9% Pick Spread Marshall -1.5 Home ML -108 Away ML -111 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +14.2% MODEL PROB 63.9% VEGAS TRUE 49.7% VEGAS JUICED 52.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Western Kentucky 79 vs Marshall 82 Total 161.0 Margin +2.2 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 163.0 @56%
Merrimack (5-6) @ Princeton (3-9)	Princeton (62.6%)	05:00 PM	37
05:00 PM CLOSE Merrimack @ Princeton 5-6 vs 3-9 Merrimack 37.4% Princeton 62.6% Model Pick Princeton 62.6% Pick Spread Princeton -2.5 Home ML -165 Away ML +138 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.8% MODEL PROB 62.6% VEGAS TRUE 59.8% VEGAS JUICED 62.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Merrimack 63 vs Princeton 72 Total 135.1 Margin +8.7 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 136.5 @54%
Eastern Kentucky (2-7) @ Eastern Illinois (2-6)	Eastern Kentucky (62.1%)	08:00 PM	38
08:00 PM Eastern Kentucky @ Eastern Illinois 2-7 vs 2-6 Eastern Kentucky 62.1% Eastern Illinois 37.9% Model Pick Eastern Kentucky 62.1% Pick Spread Eastern Kentucky -5.0 Home ML +185 Away ML -225 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -4.3% MODEL PROB 62.1% VEGAS TRUE 66.4% VEGAS JUICED 69.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Eastern Kentucky 76 vs Eastern Illinois 81 Total 156.7 Margin +4.7 Spread DOG COVERS @78% Diff +10.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 150.8 @68%
Massachusetts (6-3) @ Boston College (5-5)	Boston College (56.6%)	07:00 PM	48
07:00 PM CLOSE Massachusetts @ Boston College 6-3 vs 5-5 Massachusetts 43.4% Boston College 56.6% Model Pick Boston College 56.6% Pick Spread Boston College -2.0 Home ML -148 Away ML +125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.8% MODEL PROB 56.6% VEGAS TRUE 57.4% VEGAS JUICED 59.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Massachusetts 68 vs Boston College 72 Total 139.6 Margin +3.8 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +1.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 140.5 @53%
New Haven (5-5) @ NJIT (3-7)	New Haven (54.9%)	07:00 PM	45
07:00 PM CLOSE New Haven @ NJIT 5-5 vs 3-7 New Haven 54.9% NJIT 45.1% Model Pick New Haven 54.9% Pick Spread New Haven -2.0 Home ML +115 Away ML -136 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.4% MODEL PROB 54.9% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Haven 68 vs NJIT 68 Total 136.1 Margin +0.1 Spread DOG COVERS @56% Diff +1.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 130.5 @67%
Miami (OH) (8-0) @ UNC Asheville (4-5)	Miami (OH) (53.6%)	06:00 PM	56
06:00 PM Miami (OH) @ UNC Asheville 8-0 vs 4-5 Miami (OH) 53.6% UNC Asheville 46.4% Model Pick Miami (OH) 53.6% Pick Spread Miami (OH) -5.5 Home ML +154 Away ML -185 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -8.6% MODEL PROB 53.6% VEGAS TRUE 62.2% VEGAS JUICED 64.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Miami (OH) 72 vs UNC Asheville 77 Total 149.4 Margin +4.6 Spread DOG COVERS @78% Diff +10.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 152.5 @59%
Weber State (4-5) @ Kansas City (1-8)	Kansas City (51.3%) DOG	08:00 PM	49
08:00 PM +17.0% EDGEUNDERDOG Weber State @ Kansas City 4-5 vs 1-8 Weber State 48.7% Kansas City 51.3% Model Pick Kansas City 51.3% Pick Spread Kansas City +6.5 Home ML +180 Away ML -218 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +17.0% MODEL PROB 51.3% VEGAS TRUE 34.3% VEGAS JUICED 35.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Weber State 80 vs Kansas City 75 Total 155.1 Margin -5.9 Spread DOG COVERS @52% Diff -0.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 149.5 @67%

RECOMMENDED PICKS CRITERIA

Edge ≥ 4.0 pts • Spread ≤ 12 pts • Confidence ≥ 65%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Bryant (3-7) @ Iona (7-3)	Iona (75.3%)	07:00 PM	25
07:00 PM+8.2 PTS EDGE Bryant @ Iona 3-7 vs 7-3 Bryant 24.7% Iona 75.3% Model Pick Iona (75.3%) Pick Spread Iona -9.0 Home ML -650 Away ML +450 SPREAD EDGE +8.2 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +16.9 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Bryant 62 vs Iona 78 Total 139.9 Margin +16.9 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +8.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.2 @74%
Idaho State (6-4) @ Utah Valley (6-3)	Utah Valley (80.4%)	08:00 PM	20
08:00 PM+7.8 PTS EDGE Idaho State @ Utah Valley 6-4 vs 6-3 Idaho State 19.6% Utah Valley 80.4% Model Pick Utah Valley (80.4%) Pick Spread Utah Valley -11.5 Home ML -750 Away ML +500 SPREAD EDGE +7.8 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +19.3 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Idaho State 63 vs Utah Valley 82 Total 145.5 Margin +19.3 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.5 @62%
Maine (0-11) @ Boston University (4-6)	Boston University (77.2%)	07:00 PM	23
07:00 PM+6.6 PTS EDGE Maine @ Boston University 0-11 vs 4-6 Maine 22.8% Boston University 77.2% Model Pick Boston University (77.2%) Pick Spread Boston University -8.5 Home ML -412 Away ML +315 SPREAD EDGE +6.6 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +15.1 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Maine 61 vs Boston University 76 Total 137.5 Margin +15.1 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 129.0 @74%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Weber State (4-5) @ Kansas City (1-8)	Kansas City (51.3%) DOG	08:00 PM	49
08:00 PM+17.0% EDGE Weber State @ Kansas City 4-5 vs 1-8 Weber State 48.7% Kansas City 51.3% Model Pick Kansas City 51.3% Pick Spread +6.5 Home ML +180 Away ML -218 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +17.0% MODEL PROB 51.3% VEGAS TRUE 34.3% VEGAS JUICED 35.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Weber State 80 vs Kansas City 75 Total 155.1 Margin -5.9 Spread DOG COVERS @52% Diff -0.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 149.5 @67%
Western Kentucky (6-2) @ Marshall (5-4)	Marshall (63.9%)	07:00 PM	46
07:00 PM+14.2% EDGE Western Kentucky @ Marshall 6-2 vs 5-4 Western Kentucky 36.1% Marshall 63.9% Model Pick Marshall 63.9% Pick Spread -1.5 Home ML -108 Away ML -111 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +14.2% MODEL PROB 63.9% VEGAS TRUE 49.7% VEGAS JUICED 52.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Western Kentucky 79 vs Marshall 82 Total 161.0 Margin +2.2 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 163.0 @56%
Fresno State (6-4) @ Cal State Northridge (4-5)	Cal State Northridge (65.5%) DOG	10:00 PM	34
10:00 PM+11.8% EDGE Fresno State @ Cal State Northridge 6-4 vs 4-5 Fresno State 34.5% Cal State Northridge 65.5% Model Pick Cal State Northridge 65.5% Pick Spread +1.0 Home ML -127 Away ML +107 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.8% MODEL PROB 65.5% VEGAS TRUE 53.7% VEGAS JUICED 56.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fresno State 72 vs Cal State Northridge 76 Total 148.1 Margin +3.7 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff +5.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.0 @82%
Eastern Michigan (6-4) @ Purdue Fort Wayne (5-6)	Purdue Fort Wayne (69.0%)	08:00 PM	31
08:00 PM+8.0% EDGE Eastern Michigan @ Purdue Fort Wayne 6-4 vs 5-6 Eastern Michigan 31.0% Purdue Fort Wayne 69.0% Model Pick Purdue Fort Wayne 69.0% Pick Spread -2.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.0% MODEL PROB 69.0% VEGAS TRUE 60.9% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Eastern Michigan 72 vs Purdue Fort Wayne 81 Total 153.2 Margin +9.0 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.5 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.5 @64%
Southern (4-5) @ Texas State (6-5)	Texas State (65.0%)	08:30 PM	35
08:30 PM+6.3% EDGE Southern @ Texas State 4-5 vs 6-5 Southern 35.0% Texas State 65.0% Model Pick Texas State 65.0% Pick Spread -3.0 Home ML -157 Away ML +132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.3% MODEL PROB 65.0% VEGAS TRUE 58.7% VEGAS JUICED 61.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Southern 73 vs Texas State 82 Total 155.3 Margin +9.5 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.8 @85%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Eastern Michigan (6-4) @ Purdue Fort Wayne (5-6)	Purdue Fort Wayne (69.0%)	08:00 PM	31
08:00 PMCLOSE Eastern Michigan @ Purdue Fort Wayne 6-4 vs 5-6 Eastern Michigan 31.0% Purdue Fort Wayne 69.0% Model Pick Purdue Fort Wayne 69.0% Pick Spread Purdue Fort Wayne -2.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.0% MODEL PROB 69.0% VEGAS TRUE 60.9% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Eastern Michigan 72 vs Purdue Fort Wayne 81 Total 153.2 Margin +9.0 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.5 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.5 @64%
Fresno State (6-4) @ Cal State Northridge (4-5)	Cal State Northridge (65.5%) DOG	10:00 PM	34
10:00 PMCLOSE Fresno State @ Cal State Northridge 6-4 vs 4-5 Fresno State 34.5% Cal State Northridge 65.5% Model Pick Cal State Northridge 65.5% Pick Spread Cal State Northridge +1.0 Home ML -127 Away ML +107 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.8% MODEL PROB 65.5% VEGAS TRUE 53.7% VEGAS JUICED 56.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fresno State 72 vs Cal State Northridge 76 Total 148.1 Margin +3.7 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff +5.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.0 @82%
Southern (4-5) @ Texas State (6-5)	Texas State (65.0%)	08:30 PM	35
08:30 PMCLOSE Southern @ Texas State 4-5 vs 6-5 Southern 35.0% Texas State 65.0% Model Pick Texas State 65.0% Pick Spread Texas State -3.0 Home ML -157 Away ML +132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.3% MODEL PROB 65.0% VEGAS TRUE 58.7% VEGAS JUICED 61.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Southern 73 vs Texas State 82 Total 155.3 Margin +9.5 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.8 @85%
Wisconsin (7-2) @ Nebraska #23 (9-0)	Nebraska (64.3%)	09:00 PM	71
09:00 PMCLOSE Wisconsin @ Nebraska #23 7-2 vs 9-0 Wisconsin 35.7% Nebraska 64.3% Model Pick Nebraska 64.3% Pick Spread Nebraska -2.0 Home ML -113 Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Wisconsin 75 vs Nebraska 78 Total 153.2 Margin +3.6 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +1.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 158.2 @65%
Western Kentucky (6-2) @ Marshall (5-4)	Marshall (63.9%)	07:00 PM	46
07:00 PMCLOSE Western Kentucky @ Marshall 6-2 vs 5-4 Western Kentucky 36.1% Marshall 63.9% Model Pick Marshall 63.9% Pick Spread Marshall -1.5 Home ML -108 Away ML -111 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +14.2% MODEL PROB 63.9% VEGAS TRUE 49.7% VEGAS JUICED 52.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Western Kentucky 79 vs Marshall 82 Total 161.0 Margin +2.2 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 163.0 @56%
Merrimack (5-6) @ Princeton (3-9)	Princeton (62.6%)	05:00 PM	37
05:00 PMCLOSE Merrimack @ Princeton 5-6 vs 3-9 Merrimack 37.4% Princeton 62.6% Model Pick Princeton 62.6% Pick Spread Princeton -2.5 Home ML -165 Away ML +138 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.8% MODEL PROB 62.6% VEGAS TRUE 59.8% VEGAS JUICED 62.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Merrimack 63 vs Princeton 72 Total 135.1 Margin +8.7 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 136.5 @54%
Massachusetts (6-3) @ Boston College (5-5)	Boston College (56.6%)	07:00 PM	48
07:00 PMCLOSE Massachusetts @ Boston College 6-3 vs 5-5 Massachusetts 43.4% Boston College 56.6% Model Pick Boston College 56.6% Pick Spread Boston College -2.0 Home ML -148 Away ML +125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.8% MODEL PROB 56.6% VEGAS TRUE 57.4% VEGAS JUICED 59.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Massachusetts 68 vs Boston College 72 Total 139.6 Margin +3.8 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +1.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 140.5 @53%
New Haven (5-5) @ NJIT (3-7)	New Haven (54.9%)	07:00 PM	45
07:00 PMCLOSE New Haven @ NJIT 5-5 vs 3-7 New Haven 54.9% NJIT 45.1% Model Pick New Haven 54.9% Pick Spread New Haven -2.0 Home ML +115 Away ML -136 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.4% MODEL PROB 54.9% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Haven 68 vs NJIT 68 Total 136.1 Margin +0.1 Spread DOG COVERS @56% Diff +1.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 130.5 @67%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Weber State (4-5) @ Kansas City (1-8)	Kansas City (51.3%) DOG	+17.0%	08:00 PM	49
08:00 PMUNDERDOG ML Weber State @ Kansas City 4-5 vs 1-8 Weber State 48.7% Kansas City 51.3% Model Pick Kansas City 51.3% Pick Spread Kansas City +6.5 Home ML +180 Away ML -218 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +17.0% MODEL PROB 51.3% VEGAS TRUE 34.3% VEGAS JUICED 35.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Weber State 80 vs Kansas City 75 Total 155.1 Margin -5.9 Spread DOG COVERS @52% Diff -0.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 149.5 @67%

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
Liberty @ NC State	Liberty DOG	21.7%	+700	⭐⭐⭐ +73.3%	07:00 PM
Kansas City vs Weber State	Kansas City DOG	51.3%	+180	⭐⭐⭐ +43.5%	08:00 PM
Bryant @ Iona	Bryant DOG	24.7%	+450	⭐⭐⭐ +36.1%	07:00 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Weber State (4-5) @ Kansas City (1-8)	Kansas City (51.3%)	+17.0%	08:00 PM	49
08:00 PM+17.0% EDGE Weber State @ Kansas City 4-5 vs 1-8 Weber State 48.7% Kansas City 51.3% Model Pick Kansas City 51.3% Pick Spread +6.5 Home ML +180 Away ML -218 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +17.0% MODEL PROB 51.3% VEGAS TRUE 34.3% VEGAS JUICED 35.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Weber State 80 vs Kansas City 75 Total 155.1 Margin -5.9 Spread DOG COVERS @52% Diff -0.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 149.5 @67%
Western Kentucky (6-2) @ Marshall (5-4)	Marshall (63.9%)	+14.2%	07:00 PM	46
07:00 PM+14.2% EDGE Western Kentucky @ Marshall 6-2 vs 5-4 Western Kentucky 36.1% Marshall 63.9% Model Pick Marshall 63.9% Pick Spread -1.5 Home ML -108 Away ML -111 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +14.2% MODEL PROB 63.9% VEGAS TRUE 49.7% VEGAS JUICED 52.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Western Kentucky 79 vs Marshall 82 Total 161.0 Margin +2.2 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 163.0 @56%
Fresno State (6-4) @ Cal State Northridge (4-5)	Cal State Northridge (65.5%)	+11.8%	10:00 PM	34
10:00 PM+11.8% EDGE Fresno State @ Cal State Northridge 6-4 vs 4-5 Fresno State 34.5% Cal State Northridge 65.5% Model Pick Cal State Northridge 65.5% Pick Spread +1.0 Home ML -127 Away ML +107 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.8% MODEL PROB 65.5% VEGAS TRUE 53.7% VEGAS JUICED 56.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fresno State 72 vs Cal State Northridge 76 Total 148.1 Margin +3.7 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff +5.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.0 @82%
Eastern Michigan (6-4) @ Purdue Fort Wayne (5-6)	Purdue Fort Wayne (69.0%)	+8.0%	08:00 PM	31
08:00 PM+8.0% EDGE Eastern Michigan @ Purdue Fort Wayne 6-4 vs 5-6 Eastern Michigan 31.0% Purdue Fort Wayne 69.0% Model Pick Purdue Fort Wayne 69.0% Pick Spread -2.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.0% MODEL PROB 69.0% VEGAS TRUE 60.9% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Eastern Michigan 72 vs Purdue Fort Wayne 81 Total 153.2 Margin +9.0 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.5 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.5 @64%
Southern (4-5) @ Texas State (6-5)	Texas State (65.0%)	+6.3%	08:30 PM	35
08:30 PM+6.3% EDGE Southern @ Texas State 4-5 vs 6-5 Southern 35.0% Texas State 65.0% Model Pick Texas State 65.0% Pick Spread -3.0 Home ML -157 Away ML +132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.3% MODEL PROB 65.0% VEGAS TRUE 58.7% VEGAS JUICED 61.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Southern 73 vs Texas State 82 Total 155.3 Margin +9.5 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.8 @85%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Weber State (4-5) @ Kansas City (1-8)	Kansas City (51.3%)	+17.0%	08:00 PM	49
08:00 PM+17.0% EDGE Weber State @ Kansas City 4-5 vs 1-8 Weber State 48.7% Kansas City 51.3% Model Pick Kansas City 51.3% Pick Spread +6.5 Home ML +180 Away ML -218 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +17.0% MODEL PROB 51.3% VEGAS TRUE 34.3% VEGAS JUICED 35.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Weber State 80 vs Kansas City 75 Total 155.1 Margin -5.9 Spread DOG COVERS @52% Diff -0.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 149.5 @67%
Western Kentucky (6-2) @ Marshall (5-4)	Marshall (63.9%)	+14.2%	07:00 PM	46
07:00 PM+14.2% EDGE Western Kentucky @ Marshall 6-2 vs 5-4 Western Kentucky 36.1% Marshall 63.9% Model Pick Marshall 63.9% Pick Spread -1.5 Home ML -108 Away ML -111 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +14.2% MODEL PROB 63.9% VEGAS TRUE 49.7% VEGAS JUICED 52.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Western Kentucky 79 vs Marshall 82 Total 161.0 Margin +2.2 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 163.0 @56%
Fresno State (6-4) @ Cal State Northridge (4-5)	Cal State Northridge (65.5%)	+11.8%	10:00 PM	34
10:00 PM+11.8% EDGE Fresno State @ Cal State Northridge 6-4 vs 4-5 Fresno State 34.5% Cal State Northridge 65.5% Model Pick Cal State Northridge 65.5% Pick Spread +1.0 Home ML -127 Away ML +107 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.8% MODEL PROB 65.5% VEGAS TRUE 53.7% VEGAS JUICED 56.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fresno State 72 vs Cal State Northridge 76 Total 148.1 Margin +3.7 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff +5.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.0 @82%

Model Information

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Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

XGBoost Win/Loss Model