Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Thursday, December 11, 2025

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
Alabama State (3-6) @ Missouri (8-2)	Missouri (96.3%)	08:00 PM	14
08:00 PM Alabama State @ Missouri 3-6 vs 8-2 Alabama State 3.7% Missouri 96.3% Model Pick Missouri 96.3% Pick Spread Missouri -27.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Alabama State 70 vs Missouri 90 Total 159.8 Margin +19.8 Spread DOG COVERS @29% Diff -7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 157.5 @57%
Western Carolina (4-5) @ Virginia Tech (8-2)	Virginia Tech (96.2%)	07:00 PM	14
07:00 PM Western Carolina @ Virginia Tech 4-5 vs 8-2 Western Carolina 3.8% Virginia Tech 96.2% Model Pick Virginia Tech 96.2% Pick Spread Virginia Tech -20.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Western Carolina 67 vs Virginia Tech 88 Total 154.6 Margin +21.4 Spread FAV COVERS @55% Diff +1.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 154.0 @52%
Iowa (8-1) @ Iowa State #4 (9-0)	Iowa State (92.6%)	08:00 PM	47
08:00 PM +7.8% EDGE Iowa @ Iowa State #4 8-1 vs 9-0 Iowa 7.4% Iowa State 92.6% Model Pick Iowa State 92.6% Pick Spread Iowa State -11.0 Home ML -800 Away ML +525 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.8% MODEL PROB 92.6% VEGAS TRUE 84.7% VEGAS JUICED 88.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Iowa 67 vs Iowa State 86 Total 153.4 Margin +18.8 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +8.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.8 @81%
Saint Joseph's (6-3) @ Syracuse (5-3)	Syracuse (92.6%)	09:00 PM	32
09:00 PM +8.8% EDGE Saint Joseph's @ Syracuse 6-3 vs 5-3 Saint Joseph's 7.4% Syracuse 92.6% Model Pick Syracuse 92.6% Pick Spread Syracuse -13.0 Home ML -717 Away ML +487 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.8% MODEL PROB 92.6% VEGAS TRUE 83.8% VEGAS JUICED 87.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Saint Joseph's 62 vs Syracuse 80 Total 141.5 Margin +17.7 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.5 @56%
Coastal Georgia (0-2) @ Georgia Southern (6-5)	Georgia Southern (89.6%)	07:00 PM	10
07:00 PM Coastal Georgia @ Georgia Southern 0-2 vs 6-5 Coastal Georgia 10.4% Georgia Southern 89.6% Model Pick Georgia Southern 89.6% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Coastal Georgia 76 vs Georgia Southern 85 Total 161.2 Margin +9.0
Trinity Baptist (0-1) @ Jacksonville (4-5)	Jacksonville (89.2%)	07:00 PM	11
07:00 PM Trinity Baptist @ Jacksonville 0-1 vs 4-5 Trinity Baptist 10.8% Jacksonville 89.2% Model Pick Jacksonville 89.2% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Trinity Baptist 82 vs Jacksonville 95 Total 176.9 Margin +12.7
North Dakota State (7-3) @ Cal State Bakersfield (4-6)	North Dakota State (79.4%)	09:30 PM	21
09:30 PM +11.4% EDGE North Dakota State @ Cal State Bakersfield 7-3 vs 4-6 North Dakota State 79.4% Cal State Bakersfield 20.6% Model Pick North Dakota State 79.4% Pick Spread North Dakota State -6.5 Home ML +200 Away ML -245 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.4% MODEL PROB 79.4% VEGAS TRUE 68.1% VEGAS JUICED 71.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Dakota State 76 vs Cal State Bakersfield 78 Total 154.2 Margin +1.4 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +7.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 149.5 @64%
UT Arlington (6-3) @ UT Rio Grande Valley (3-5)	UT Rio Grande Valley (66.6%)	07:30 PM	33
07:30 PM +10.8% EDGECLOSE UT Arlington @ UT Rio Grande Valley 6-3 vs 3-5 UT Arlington 33.4% UT Rio Grande Valley 66.6% Model Pick UT Rio Grande Valley 66.6% Pick Spread UT Rio Grande Valley -2.5 Home ML -138 Away ML +117 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.8% MODEL PROB 66.6% VEGAS TRUE 55.8% VEGAS JUICED 58.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Arlington 65 vs UT Rio Grande Valley 73 Total 138.6 Margin +7.8 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.2 @64%
Green Bay (4-7) @ IU Indianapolis (3-8)	Green Bay (64.7%)	06:30 PM	35
06:30 PM +9.5% EDGECLOSE Green Bay @ IU Indianapolis 4-7 vs 3-8 Green Bay 64.7% IU Indianapolis 35.3% Model Pick Green Bay 64.7% Pick Spread Green Bay -1.0 Home ML +115 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.5% MODEL PROB 64.7% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Green Bay 88 vs IU Indianapolis 78 Total 165.5 Margin -9.5 Spread FAV COVERS @26% Diff +8.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 167.0 @55%
App State (5-5) @ East Carolina (3-6)	East Carolina (62.9%)	07:00 PM	37
07:00 PM App State @ East Carolina 5-5 vs 3-6 App State 37.1% East Carolina 62.9% Model Pick East Carolina 62.9% Pick Spread East Carolina -4.0 Home ML -195 Away ML +165 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.7% MODEL PROB 62.9% VEGAS TRUE 63.7% VEGAS JUICED 66.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE App State 72 vs East Carolina 67 Total 139.1 Margin -4.7 Spread DOG COVERS @25% Diff +9.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 134.2 @65%

RECOMMENDED PICKS CRITERIA

Edge ≥ 4.0 pts • Spread ≤ 12 pts • Confidence ≥ 65%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Iowa (8-1) @ Iowa State #4 (9-0)	Iowa State (92.6%)	08:00 PM	47
08:00 PM+8.0 PTS EDGE Iowa @ Iowa State #4 8-1 vs 9-0 Iowa 7.4% Iowa State 92.6% Model Pick Iowa State (92.6%) Pick Spread Iowa State -11.0 Home ML -800 Away ML +525 SPREAD EDGE +8.0 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +18.8 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Iowa 67 vs Iowa State 86 Total 153.4 Margin +18.8 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +8.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.8 @81%
North Dakota State (7-3) @ Cal State Bakersfield (4-6)	North Dakota State (79.4%)	09:30 PM	21
09:30 PM+7.9 PTS EDGE North Dakota State @ Cal State Bakersfield 7-3 vs 4-6 North Dakota State 79.4% Cal State Bakersfield 20.6% Model Pick North Dakota State (79.4%) Pick Spread North Dakota State -6.5 Home ML +200 Away ML -245 SPREAD EDGE +7.9 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +1.4 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Dakota State 76 vs Cal State Bakersfield 78 Total 154.2 Margin +1.4 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +7.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 149.5 @64%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
North Dakota State (7-3) @ Cal State Bakersfield (4-6)	North Dakota State (79.4%)	09:30 PM	21
09:30 PM+11.4% EDGE North Dakota State @ Cal State Bakersfield 7-3 vs 4-6 North Dakota State 79.4% Cal State Bakersfield 20.6% Model Pick North Dakota State 79.4% Pick Spread +6.5 Home ML +200 Away ML -245 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.4% MODEL PROB 79.4% VEGAS TRUE 68.1% VEGAS JUICED 71.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Dakota State 76 vs Cal State Bakersfield 78 Total 154.2 Margin +1.4 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +7.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 149.5 @64%
UT Arlington (6-3) @ UT Rio Grande Valley (3-5)	UT Rio Grande Valley (66.6%) DOG	07:30 PM	33
07:30 PM+10.8% EDGE UT Arlington @ UT Rio Grande Valley 6-3 vs 3-5 UT Arlington 33.4% UT Rio Grande Valley 66.6% Model Pick UT Rio Grande Valley 66.6% Pick Spread -2.5 Home ML -138 Away ML +117 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.8% MODEL PROB 66.6% VEGAS TRUE 55.8% VEGAS JUICED 58.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Arlington 65 vs UT Rio Grande Valley 73 Total 138.6 Margin +7.8 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.2 @64%
Green Bay (4-7) @ IU Indianapolis (3-8)	Green Bay (64.7%)	06:30 PM	35
06:30 PM+9.5% EDGE Green Bay @ IU Indianapolis 4-7 vs 3-8 Green Bay 64.7% IU Indianapolis 35.3% Model Pick Green Bay 64.7% Pick Spread +1.0 Home ML +115 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.5% MODEL PROB 64.7% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Green Bay 88 vs IU Indianapolis 78 Total 165.5 Margin -9.5 Spread FAV COVERS @26% Diff +8.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 167.0 @55%
Saint Joseph's (6-3) @ Syracuse (5-3)	Syracuse (92.6%) DOG	09:00 PM	32
09:00 PM+8.8% EDGE Saint Joseph's @ Syracuse 6-3 vs 5-3 Saint Joseph's 7.4% Syracuse 92.6% Model Pick Syracuse 92.6% Pick Spread -13.0 Home ML -717 Away ML +487 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.8% MODEL PROB 92.6% VEGAS TRUE 83.8% VEGAS JUICED 87.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Saint Joseph's 62 vs Syracuse 80 Total 141.5 Margin +17.7 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.5 @56%
Iowa (8-1) @ Iowa State #4 (9-0)	Iowa State (92.6%) DOG	08:00 PM	47
08:00 PM+7.8% EDGE Iowa @ Iowa State #4 8-1 vs 9-0 Iowa 7.4% Iowa State 92.6% Model Pick Iowa State 92.6% Pick Spread -11.0 Home ML -800 Away ML +525 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.8% MODEL PROB 92.6% VEGAS TRUE 84.7% VEGAS JUICED 88.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Iowa 67 vs Iowa State 86 Total 153.4 Margin +18.8 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +8.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.8 @81%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
UT Arlington (6-3) @ UT Rio Grande Valley (3-5)	UT Rio Grande Valley (66.6%)	07:30 PM	33
07:30 PMCLOSE UT Arlington @ UT Rio Grande Valley 6-3 vs 3-5 UT Arlington 33.4% UT Rio Grande Valley 66.6% Model Pick UT Rio Grande Valley 66.6% Pick Spread UT Rio Grande Valley -2.5 Home ML -138 Away ML +117 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.8% MODEL PROB 66.6% VEGAS TRUE 55.8% VEGAS JUICED 58.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Arlington 65 vs UT Rio Grande Valley 73 Total 138.6 Margin +7.8 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.2 @64%
Green Bay (4-7) @ IU Indianapolis (3-8)	Green Bay (64.7%)	06:30 PM	35
06:30 PMCLOSE Green Bay @ IU Indianapolis 4-7 vs 3-8 Green Bay 64.7% IU Indianapolis 35.3% Model Pick Green Bay 64.7% Pick Spread Green Bay -1.0 Home ML +115 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.5% MODEL PROB 64.7% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Green Bay 88 vs IU Indianapolis 78 Total 165.5 Margin -9.5 Spread FAV COVERS @26% Diff +8.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 167.0 @55%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
UT Rio Grande Valley vs UT Arlington	UT Rio Grande Valley FAV	66.6%	-138	⭐⭐ +14.7%	07:30 PM
Green Bay @ IU Indianapolis	Green Bay FAV	64.7%	-135	⭐⭐ +12.7%	06:30 PM
North Dakota State @ Cal State Bakersfield	North Dakota State FAV	79.4%	-245	⭐⭐ +11.8%	09:30 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
North Dakota State (7-3) @ Cal State Bakersfield (4-6)	North Dakota State (79.4%)	09:30 PM	21
09:30 PM75%+ CONF +11.4% EDGE North Dakota State @ Cal State Bakersfield 7-3 vs 4-6 North Dakota State 79.4% Cal State Bakersfield 20.6% Model Pick North Dakota State 79.4% Pick Spread +6.5 Home ML +200 Away ML -245 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.4% MODEL PROB 79.4% VEGAS TRUE 68.1% VEGAS JUICED 71.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Dakota State 76 vs Cal State Bakersfield 78 Total 154.2 Margin +1.4 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +7.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 149.5 @64%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
North Dakota State (7-3) @ Cal State Bakersfield (4-6)	North Dakota State (79.4%)	+11.4%	09:30 PM	21
09:30 PM+11.4% EDGE North Dakota State @ Cal State Bakersfield 7-3 vs 4-6 North Dakota State 79.4% Cal State Bakersfield 20.6% Model Pick North Dakota State 79.4% Pick Spread +6.5 Home ML +200 Away ML -245 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.4% MODEL PROB 79.4% VEGAS TRUE 68.1% VEGAS JUICED 71.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Dakota State 76 vs Cal State Bakersfield 78 Total 154.2 Margin +1.4 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +7.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 149.5 @64%
UT Arlington (6-3) @ UT Rio Grande Valley (3-5)	UT Rio Grande Valley (66.6%)	+10.8%	07:30 PM	33
07:30 PM+10.8% EDGE UT Arlington @ UT Rio Grande Valley 6-3 vs 3-5 UT Arlington 33.4% UT Rio Grande Valley 66.6% Model Pick UT Rio Grande Valley 66.6% Pick Spread -2.5 Home ML -138 Away ML +117 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.8% MODEL PROB 66.6% VEGAS TRUE 55.8% VEGAS JUICED 58.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Arlington 65 vs UT Rio Grande Valley 73 Total 138.6 Margin +7.8 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.2 @64%
Green Bay (4-7) @ IU Indianapolis (3-8)	Green Bay (64.7%)	+9.5%	06:30 PM	35
06:30 PM+9.5% EDGE Green Bay @ IU Indianapolis 4-7 vs 3-8 Green Bay 64.7% IU Indianapolis 35.3% Model Pick Green Bay 64.7% Pick Spread +1.0 Home ML +115 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.5% MODEL PROB 64.7% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Green Bay 88 vs IU Indianapolis 78 Total 165.5 Margin -9.5 Spread FAV COVERS @26% Diff +8.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 167.0 @55%
Saint Joseph's (6-3) @ Syracuse (5-3)	Syracuse (92.6%)	+8.8%	09:00 PM	32
09:00 PM+8.8% EDGE Saint Joseph's @ Syracuse 6-3 vs 5-3 Saint Joseph's 7.4% Syracuse 92.6% Model Pick Syracuse 92.6% Pick Spread -13.0 Home ML -717 Away ML +487 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.8% MODEL PROB 92.6% VEGAS TRUE 83.8% VEGAS JUICED 87.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Saint Joseph's 62 vs Syracuse 80 Total 141.5 Margin +17.7 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.5 @56%
Iowa (8-1) @ Iowa State #4 (9-0)	Iowa State (92.6%)	+7.8%	08:00 PM	47
08:00 PM+7.8% EDGE Iowa @ Iowa State #4 8-1 vs 9-0 Iowa 7.4% Iowa State 92.6% Model Pick Iowa State 92.6% Pick Spread -11.0 Home ML -800 Away ML +525 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.8% MODEL PROB 92.6% VEGAS TRUE 84.7% VEGAS JUICED 88.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Iowa 67 vs Iowa State 86 Total 153.4 Margin +18.8 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +8.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.8 @81%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
North Dakota State (7-3) @ Cal State Bakersfield (4-6)	North Dakota State (79.4%)	+11.4%	09:30 PM	21
09:30 PM+11.4% EDGE North Dakota State @ Cal State Bakersfield 7-3 vs 4-6 North Dakota State 79.4% Cal State Bakersfield 20.6% Model Pick North Dakota State 79.4% Pick Spread +6.5 Home ML +200 Away ML -245 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.4% MODEL PROB 79.4% VEGAS TRUE 68.1% VEGAS JUICED 71.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Dakota State 76 vs Cal State Bakersfield 78 Total 154.2 Margin +1.4 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +7.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 149.5 @64%
UT Arlington (6-3) @ UT Rio Grande Valley (3-5)	UT Rio Grande Valley (66.6%)	+10.8%	07:30 PM	33
07:30 PM+10.8% EDGE UT Arlington @ UT Rio Grande Valley 6-3 vs 3-5 UT Arlington 33.4% UT Rio Grande Valley 66.6% Model Pick UT Rio Grande Valley 66.6% Pick Spread -2.5 Home ML -138 Away ML +117 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.8% MODEL PROB 66.6% VEGAS TRUE 55.8% VEGAS JUICED 58.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Arlington 65 vs UT Rio Grande Valley 73 Total 138.6 Margin +7.8 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.2 @64%

Model Information

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Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

XGBoost Win/Loss Model