Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Friday, December 12, 2025

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
Vermont State - Johnson (0-2) @ Stonehill (2-8)	Stonehill (94.3%)	07:00 PM	6
07:00 PM Vermont State - Johnson @ Stonehill 0-2 vs 2-8 Vermont State - Johnson 5.7% Stonehill 94.3% Model Pick Stonehill 94.3% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Vermont State - Johnson 74 vs Stonehill 89 Total 162.9 Margin +14.3
Dallas Christian (0-1) @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (3-5)	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (93.9%)	08:00 PM	6
08:00 PM Dallas Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 0-1 vs 3-5 Dallas Christian 6.1% Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 93.9% Model Pick Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 93.9% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Dallas Christian 67 vs Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 87 Total 153.9 Margin +19.3
East Texas A&M (5-4) @ McNeese (8-2)	McNeese (93.9%)	08:30 PM	16
08:30 PM East Texas A&M @ McNeese 5-4 vs 8-2 East Texas A&M 6.1% McNeese 93.9% Model Pick McNeese 93.9% Pick Spread McNeese -21.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE East Texas A&M 68 vs McNeese 86 Total 154.2 Margin +18.0 Spread DOG COVERS @59% Diff -3.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 143.0 @81%
Texas (7-3) @ UConn #5 (9-1)	UConn (87.1%)	08:00 PM	53
08:00 PM Texas @ UConn #5 7-3 vs 9-1 Texas 12.9% UConn 87.1% Model Pick UConn 87.1% Pick Spread UConn -13.0 Home ML -1500 Away ML +775 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.0% MODEL PROB 87.1% VEGAS TRUE 89.1% VEGAS JUICED 93.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Texas 72 vs UConn 78 Total 150.8 Margin +5.8 Spread DOG COVERS @70% Diff -7.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 146.2 @64%
South Carolina State (0-10) @ Queens University (4-5)	Queens University (86.7%)	07:00 PM	13
07:00 PM South Carolina State @ Queens University 0-10 vs 4-5 South Carolina State 13.3% Queens University 86.7% Model Pick Queens University 86.7% Pick Spread Queens University -18.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE South Carolina State 72 vs Queens University 94 Total 165.2 Margin +22.0 Spread FAV COVERS @61% Diff +3.5 Vegas O/U BET OVER 157.5 @72%
Missouri State (4-4) @ Xavier (7-3)	Xavier (84.4%)	07:00 PM	16
07:00 PM Missouri State @ Xavier 4-4 vs 7-3 Missouri State 15.6% Xavier 84.4% Model Pick Xavier 84.4% Pick Spread Xavier -18.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Missouri State 73 vs Xavier 82 Total 155.8 Margin +9.2 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff -8.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 151.0 @64%
Maryland Eastern Shore (4-9) @ North Carolina A&T (4-4)	North Carolina A&T (83.1%)	07:00 PM	17
07:00 PM Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina A&T 4-9 vs 4-4 Maryland Eastern Shore 16.9% North Carolina A&T 83.1% Model Pick North Carolina A&T 83.1% Pick Spread North Carolina A&T -8.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Maryland Eastern Shore 67 vs North Carolina A&T 69 Total 136.4 Margin +1.8 Spread DOG COVERS @70% Diff -6.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 130.5 @68%
Army (4-7) @ UMBC (6-4)	UMBC (78.4%)	06:00 PM	22
06:00 PM Army @ UMBC 4-7 vs 6-4 Army 21.6% UMBC 78.4% Model Pick UMBC 78.4% Pick Spread UMBC -7.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Army 72 vs UMBC 78 Total 150.2 Margin +5.2 Spread DOG COVERS @57% Diff -2.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 146.5 @61%
California Baptist (7-3) @ Eastern Washington (2-7)	California Baptist (62.8%)	09:00 PM	37
09:00 PM CLOSE California Baptist @ Eastern Washington 7-3 vs 2-7 California Baptist 62.8% Eastern Washington 37.2% Model Pick California Baptist 62.8% Pick Spread California Baptist -3.5 Home ML +157 Away ML -186 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.2% MODEL PROB 62.8% VEGAS TRUE 62.6% VEGAS JUICED 65.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE California Baptist 81 vs Eastern Washington 82 Total 162.9 Margin +0.7 Spread DOG COVERS @63% Diff +4.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 154.0 @75%
East Tennessee State (8-2) @ Austin Peay (4-5)	East Tennessee State (60.9%)	08:00 PM	49
08:00 PM East Tennessee State @ Austin Peay 8-2 vs 4-5 East Tennessee State 60.9% Austin Peay 39.1% Model Pick East Tennessee State 60.9% Pick Spread East Tennessee State -4.0 Home ML +157 Away ML -187 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.8% MODEL PROB 60.9% VEGAS TRUE 62.7% VEGAS JUICED 65.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE East Tennessee State 72 vs Austin Peay 73 Total 145.0 Margin +0.2 Spread DOG COVERS @62% Diff +4.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.0 @53%

RECOMMENDED PICKS CRITERIA

Edge ≥ 4.0 pts • Spread ≤ 12 pts • Confidence ≥ 65%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
California Baptist (7-3) @ Eastern Washington (2-7)	California Baptist (62.8%)	09:00 PM	37
09:00 PMCLOSE California Baptist @ Eastern Washington 7-3 vs 2-7 California Baptist 62.8% Eastern Washington 37.2% Model Pick California Baptist 62.8% Pick Spread California Baptist -3.5 Home ML +157 Away ML -186 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.2% MODEL PROB 62.8% VEGAS TRUE 62.6% VEGAS JUICED 65.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE California Baptist 81 vs Eastern Washington 82 Total 162.9 Margin +0.7 Spread DOG COVERS @63% Diff +4.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 154.0 @75%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
Texas @ UConn	Texas DOG	12.9%	+775	⭐⭐ +12.9%	08:00 PM
Austin Peay vs East Tennessee State	Austin Peay DOG	39.1%	+157	⭐ +0.6%	08:00 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Model Information

📅 All Games Today

Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

XGBoost Win/Loss Model