Daily win/loss predictions and value edges vs closing lines
Calibrated XGBoost | 2022-2026 (Transfer Portal Era)
LIVE
Today
DEC 13
Total Games
98
Model
XGBoost
Features
144
Training Set
25,500+
Season
2025-26

Model Information

  • XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
  • XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
  • Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
  • Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
  • Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
  • Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Iona (8-3) @ St. John's #22 (5-3) St. John's (96.3%) 12:00 PM 39
Mercer (7-2) @ Clemson (7-3) Clemson (96.2%) 03:00 PM 24
UC Riverside (5-5) @ BYU #10 (8-1) BYU (96.1%) 09:00 PM 29
Jackson State (1-8) @ Northwestern (5-4) Northwestern (95.9%) 02:00 PM 4
New Orleans (4-7) @ Houston #7 (9-1) Houston (95.8%) 03:00 PM 29
The Citadel (3-7) @ South Carolina (6-3) South Carolina (95.7%) 07:00 PM 4
South Carolina Upstate (6-5) @ North Carolina #14 (8-1) North Carolina (95.6%) 02:00 PM 29
Southern Utah (4-7) @ Washington (6-3) Washington (95.6%) 06:00 PM 4
Central Arkansas (4-6) @ Vanderbilt #15 (9-0) Vanderbilt (95.6%) 06:30 PM 29
UTSA (4-5) @ Colorado (8-1) Colorado (95.4%) 04:00 PM 15
UL Monroe (3-7) @ Miami (8-2) Miami (95.2%) 12:00 PM 15
Chattanooga (5-5) @ Auburn #21 (7-3) Auburn (94.9%) 04:30 PM 20
Bob Jones (0-2) @ Winthrop (6-5) Winthrop (94.3%) 06:30 PM 6
North Florida (2-7) @ Dayton (7-3) Dayton (93.8%) 07:00 PM 6
Saint Peter's (4-4) @ Georgetown (6-3) Georgetown (93.4%) 02:30 PM 7
UAlbany (3-8) @ Florida Atlantic (7-3) Florida Atlantic (93.1%) 12:00 PM 7
Evansville (4-6) @ Notre Dame (8-3) Notre Dame (93.0%) 02:00 PM 17
Marquette (5-5) @ Purdue #6 (9-1) Purdue (92.5%) 02:00 PM 32
Northwestern State (2-7) @ California (9-1) California (92.4%) 05:00 PM 18
Old Dominion (3-7) @ George Mason (9-1) George Mason (91.7%) 12:30 PM 18
Coastal Carolina (6-4) @ Grand Canyon (5-4) Grand Canyon (90.5%) 08:00 PM 10
Memphis (4-4) @ Louisville #11 (8-1) Louisville (90.4%) 03:30 PM 35
George Washington (8-3) @ Florida #18 (5-4) Florida (89.8%) 02:30 PM 40
UIC (4-5) @ Belmont (9-1) Belmont (89.0%) 04:00 PM 21
Bethel (TN) (0-1) @ Tennessee Tech (4-6) Tennessee Tech (88.9%) 04:00 PM 11
UC Davis (5-3) @ Oregon (4-5) Oregon (88.8%) 04:00 PM 11
Delaware State (3-8) @ Longwood (6-5) Longwood (88.8%) 03:00 PM 11
UMass Lowell (4-7) @ Quinnipiac (7-3) Quinnipiac (87.8%) 02:00 PM 12
Southern Miss (6-4) @ Ole Miss (5-4) Ole Miss (87.7%) 03:00 PM 17
Justice College (0-2) @ Utah Tech (5-6) Utah Tech (87.6%) 09:00 PM 12
Arkansas Baptist (0-2) @ Alabama A&M (4-4) Alabama A&M (87.5%) 05:00 PM 12
San Francisco (6-4) @ Saint Louis (8-1) Saint Louis (86.9%) 08:00 PM 23
Rutgers (5-5) @ Seton Hall (9-1) Seton Hall (86.7%) 08:00 PM 23
Tennessee State (5-4) @ UNLV (4-5) UNLV (86.0%) 09:30 PM 14
UTEP (3-5) @ Hawai'i (9-2) Hawai'i (86.0%) 11:59 PM 24
Massachusetts (7-3) @ Florida State (5-4) Florida State (86.0%) 12:00 PM 19
Northern Illinois (3-6) @ Elon (5-4) Elon (85.6%) 01:00 PM 14
Mercyhurst (4-6) @ Davidson (7-2) Davidson (85.0%) 02:00 PM 25
Louisiana (1-9) @ Louisiana Tech (5-3) Louisiana Tech (84.5%) 03:00 PM 16
Ecclesia (0-3) @ Oral Roberts (4-7) Oral Roberts (83.7%) 08:00 PM 16
Pittsburgh (5-5) @ Villanova (7-2) Villanova (83.3%) 04:30 PM 27
Nebraska #23 (10-0) @ Illinois #13 (8-2) Illinois (81.6%) 04:00 PM 68
UCLA #25 (7-2) @ Gonzaga #8 (9-1) Gonzaga (79.9%) 11:30 PM 70
Hofstra (7-4) @ Syracuse (6-3) Syracuse (78.0%) 04:00 PM 42
Central Michigan (3-6) @ Stony Brook (7-3) Stony Brook (76.9%) 12:00 PM 23
Oakland (5-5) @ Northern Iowa (7-2) Northern Iowa (76.9%) 06:00 PM 33
Manhattan (4-6) @ Fordham (7-4) Fordham (76.7%) 02:00 PM 23
Stanford (7-2) @ San José State (5-5) Stanford (75.1%) 07:00 PM 35
Duquesne (6-4) @ Nevada (7-3) Nevada (74.8%) 10:00 PM 25
Cincinnati (6-3) @ Georgia (8-1) Georgia (73.8%) 02:00 PM 51
Michigan #2 (9-0) @ Maryland (6-4) Michigan (73.5%) 08:00 PM 56
Western Illinois (3-7) @ North Dakota (4-8) North Dakota (73.2%) 02:00 PM 27
Central Connecticut (5-4) @ Binghamton (3-7) Central Connecticut (73.1%) 04:00 PM 27
Prairie View A&M (4-5) @ South Dakota (5-6) South Dakota (72.3%) 02:00 PM 28
Tulane (7-3) @ UC San Diego (8-1) UC San Diego (71.7%) 11:59 PM 53
St. Bonaventure (10-1) @ Ohio (3-6) St. Bonaventure (71.4%) 05:00 PM 44
Murray State (7-3) @ Akron (8-2) Akron (71.0%) 04:00 PM 54
DePaul (7-3) @ Wichita State (6-4) Wichita State (70.9%) 12:00 PM 29
Michigan State #9 (8-1) @ Penn State (8-2) Michigan State (70.6%) 12:00 PM 64
Sacred Heart (3-6) @ NJIT (4-7) Sacred Heart (69.4%) 02:00 PM 31
Southern Illinois (6-4) @ Richmond (8-1) Richmond (68.4%) 06:00 PM 42
Miami (OH) (9-0) @ Eastern Kentucky (3-7) Miami (OH) (65.0%) 03:00 PM 45
North Dakota State (8-3) @ Drake (6-4) Drake (65.0%) 02:00 PM 45
Kansas State (6-4) @ Creighton (5-4) Creighton (63.9%) 03:00 PM 36
Canisius (4-6) @ Maine (1-11) Maine (63.4%) 02:00 PM 37
Arizona State (8-2) @ Santa Clara (8-2) Santa Clara (62.7%) 07:00 PM 62
Wright State (5-5) @ Marshall (6-4) Marshall (62.5%) 04:00 PM 38
Providence (7-4) @ Butler (7-2) Butler (62.5%) 02:00 PM 58
Toledo (5-4) @ Robert Morris (7-4) Robert Morris (62.3%) DOG 01:00 PM 38
La Salle (4-6) @ Long Island University (5-4) Long Island University (61.9%) 04:00 PM 38
Pepperdine (3-7) @ Cal State Bakersfield (4-7) Cal State Bakersfield (61.7%) 09:30 PM 38
Jacksonville State (4-4) @ Georgia State (1-9) Jacksonville State (61.5%) 02:00 PM 38
Kansas #19 (7-3) @ NC State (7-3) NC State (61.3%) 05:30 PM 74
Oklahoma State (9-0) @ Oklahoma (6-3) Oklahoma (61.0%) 01:00 PM 64
UNC Wilmington (9-1) @ Valparaiso (6-3) UNC Wilmington (60.5%) 03:00 PM 60
Northern Kentucky (8-3) @ Bellarmine (4-5) Northern Kentucky (60.3%) 02:00 PM 50
Niagara (2-7) @ Morgan State (1-8) Morgan State (60.2%) 04:00 PM 40
Montana State (4-6) @ Oregon State (5-5) Oregon State (59.9%) 05:00 PM 40
Utah State (8-1) @ Illinois State (8-2) Utah State (59.8%) 05:00 PM 65
SE Louisiana (3-6) @ Houston Christian (5-4) Houston Christian (59.8%) 04:30 PM 40
Arkansas #17 (7-2) @ Texas Tech #16 (7-2) Texas Tech (59.8%) 12:00 PM 95
Cal State Fullerton (4-7) @ Denver (5-6) Denver (59.5%) 04:00 PM 40
Indiana (8-2) @ Kentucky (6-4) Kentucky (59.4%) 07:30 PM 51
Boston University (4-7) @ Dartmouth (3-5) Dartmouth (58.5%) 02:00 PM 42
Northern Arizona (4-5) @ San Diego (3-6) San Diego (57.9%) 06:00 PM 42
Cal State Northridge (5-5) @ Delaware (3-6) Delaware (56.2%) 01:00 PM 44
Ohio State (7-2) @ West Virginia (8-3) Ohio State (55.8%) 08:00 PM 69
St. Thomas-Minnesota (8-4) @ UNC Asheville (4-6) St. Thomas-Minnesota (55.5%) 02:00 PM 44
Arkansas State (7-3) @ Rice (4-6) Arkansas State (54.9%) 03:00 PM 45
Georgia Southern (7-5) @ West Georgia (5-4) Georgia Southern (54.1%) 07:00 PM 46
Mississippi State (4-5) @ Utah (7-3) Utah (53.3%) DOG 10:00 PM 52
Mount St. Mary's (2-8) @ Loyola Maryland (4-7) Loyola Maryland (52.6%) DOG 06:00 PM 47
Hampton (5-5) @ Howard (6-5) Howard (51.3%) DOG 03:00 PM 54
Arizona #1 (8-0) @ Alabama #12 (7-2) Alabama (51.1%) DOG 09:30 PM 100
SMU (9-1) @ LSU (8-1) LSU (50.9%) 08:30 PM 74
Marist (6-2) @ Bryant (3-8) Marist (50.5%) 04:00 PM 60
Tulsa (9-1) @ New Mexico State (6-2) Tulsa (50.2%) 03:00 PM 75
Utah Valley (7-3) @ UC Santa Barbara (8-2) Utah Valley (50.1%) 02:00 PM 75
Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Hampton (5-5) @ Howard (6-5) Howard (51.3%) DOG 03:00 PM 54
Arkansas #17 (7-2) @ Texas Tech #16 (7-2) Texas Tech (59.8%) 12:00 PM 95
Pepperdine (3-7) @ Cal State Bakersfield (4-7) Cal State Bakersfield (61.7%) 09:30 PM 38
Mount St. Mary's (2-8) @ Loyola Maryland (4-7) Loyola Maryland (52.6%) DOG 06:00 PM 47
UAlbany (3-8) @ Florida Atlantic (7-3) Florida Atlantic (93.1%) 12:00 PM 7
Oklahoma State (9-0) @ Oklahoma (6-3) Oklahoma (61.0%) 01:00 PM 64
La Salle (4-6) @ Long Island University (5-4) Long Island University (61.9%) 04:00 PM 38
San Francisco (6-4) @ Saint Louis (8-1) Saint Louis (86.9%) 08:00 PM 23
Arizona #1 (8-0) @ Alabama #12 (7-2) Alabama (51.1%) DOG 09:30 PM 100
Arizona State (8-2) @ Santa Clara (8-2) Santa Clara (62.7%) 07:00 PM 62
Southern Illinois (6-4) @ Richmond (8-1) Richmond (68.4%) 06:00 PM 42
Rutgers (5-5) @ Seton Hall (9-1) Seton Hall (86.7%) 08:00 PM 23
Northern Illinois (3-6) @ Elon (5-4) Elon (85.6%) 01:00 PM 14
Kansas #19 (7-3) @ NC State (7-3) NC State (61.3%) 05:30 PM 74
UIC (4-5) @ Belmont (9-1) Belmont (89.0%) 04:00 PM 21
Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Arizona State (8-2) @ Santa Clara (8-2) Santa Clara (62.7%) 07:00 PM 62
Toledo (5-4) @ Robert Morris (7-4) Robert Morris (62.3%) DOG 01:00 PM 38
La Salle (4-6) @ Long Island University (5-4) Long Island University (61.9%) 04:00 PM 38
Pepperdine (3-7) @ Cal State Bakersfield (4-7) Cal State Bakersfield (61.7%) 09:30 PM 38
Kansas #19 (7-3) @ NC State (7-3) NC State (61.3%) 05:30 PM 74
Oklahoma State (9-0) @ Oklahoma (6-3) Oklahoma (61.0%) 01:00 PM 64
Niagara (2-7) @ Morgan State (1-8) Morgan State (60.2%) 04:00 PM 40
Montana State (4-6) @ Oregon State (5-5) Oregon State (59.9%) 05:00 PM 40
SE Louisiana (3-6) @ Houston Christian (5-4) Houston Christian (59.8%) 04:30 PM 40
Arkansas #17 (7-2) @ Texas Tech #16 (7-2) Texas Tech (59.8%) 12:00 PM 95
Cal State Fullerton (4-7) @ Denver (5-6) Denver (59.5%) 04:00 PM 40
Indiana (8-2) @ Kentucky (6-4) Kentucky (59.4%) 07:30 PM 51
Boston University (4-7) @ Dartmouth (3-5) Dartmouth (58.5%) 02:00 PM 42
Cal State Northridge (5-5) @ Delaware (3-6) Delaware (56.2%) 01:00 PM 44
Ohio State (7-2) @ West Virginia (8-3) Ohio State (55.8%) 08:00 PM 69
St. Thomas-Minnesota (8-4) @ UNC Asheville (4-6) St. Thomas-Minnesota (55.5%) 02:00 PM 44
Arkansas State (7-3) @ Rice (4-6) Arkansas State (54.9%) 03:00 PM 45
Georgia Southern (7-5) @ West Georgia (5-4) Georgia Southern (54.1%) 07:00 PM 46
Mississippi State (4-5) @ Utah (7-3) Utah (53.3%) DOG 10:00 PM 52
Mount St. Mary's (2-8) @ Loyola Maryland (4-7) Loyola Maryland (52.6%) DOG 06:00 PM 47
Hampton (5-5) @ Howard (6-5) Howard (51.3%) DOG 03:00 PM 54
Arizona #1 (8-0) @ Alabama #12 (7-2) Alabama (51.1%) DOG 09:30 PM 100
SMU (9-1) @ LSU (8-1) LSU (50.9%) 08:30 PM 74
Marist (6-2) @ Bryant (3-8) Marist (50.5%) 04:00 PM 60
Tulsa (9-1) @ New Mexico State (6-2) Tulsa (50.2%) 03:00 PM 75
Game Prediction Edge Time (ET) Hype Level
Toledo (5-4) @ Robert Morris (7-4) Robert Morris (62.3%) DOG +0.0% 01:00 PM 38
Mississippi State (4-5) @ Utah (7-3) Utah (53.3%) DOG +0.0% 10:00 PM 52
Mount St. Mary's (2-8) @ Loyola Maryland (4-7) Loyola Maryland (52.6%) DOG +8.7% 06:00 PM 47
Hampton (5-5) @ Howard (6-5) Howard (51.3%) DOG +11.2% 03:00 PM 54
Arizona #1 (8-0) @ Alabama #12 (7-2) Alabama (51.1%) DOG +4.9% 09:30 PM 100
SMU (9-1) @ LSU (8-1) LSU (50.9%) +0.0% 08:30 PM 74
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Expected Value Time (ET)
Maryland vs Michigan Maryland DOG 26.5% +1250 ⭐⭐⭐ +258.1% 08:00 PM
Penn State vs Michigan State Penn State DOG 29.4% +575 ⭐⭐⭐ +98.5% 12:00 PM
Illinois State vs Utah State Illinois State DOG 40.2% +300 ⭐⭐⭐ +60.6% 05:00 PM
Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Game Prediction Edge Time (ET) Hype Level
Hampton (5-5) @ Howard (6-5) Howard (51.3%) +11.2% 03:00 PM 54
Arkansas #17 (7-2) @ Texas Tech #16 (7-2) Texas Tech (59.8%) +9.5% 12:00 PM 95
Pepperdine (3-7) @ Cal State Bakersfield (4-7) Cal State Bakersfield (61.7%) +9.1% 09:30 PM 38
Mount St. Mary's (2-8) @ Loyola Maryland (4-7) Loyola Maryland (52.6%) +8.7% 06:00 PM 47
UAlbany (3-8) @ Florida Atlantic (7-3) Florida Atlantic (93.1%) +6.8% 12:00 PM 7
Oklahoma State (9-0) @ Oklahoma (6-3) Oklahoma (61.0%) +5.7% 01:00 PM 64
La Salle (4-6) @ Long Island University (5-4) Long Island University (61.9%) +5.1% 04:00 PM 38
Game Prediction Edge Time (ET) Hype Level
Hampton (5-5) @ Howard (6-5) Howard (51.3%) +11.2% 03:00 PM 54

Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values show which features have the most impact on our model's predictions. The values below represent the mean absolute SHAP value across all 98 games today.

XGBoost Win/Loss Model

Feature importance for win/loss predictions. Higher values indicate stronger influence on the predicted outcome.

Point Spread
0.4015
Srs Diff Rolling
0.2945
Away Team Implied Probability
0.1422
Away Team Win %
0.1330
Home Team Win %
0.1295
Home Team Implied Probability
0.0879
Away Moneyline
0.0635
Away Offensive Rating
0.0620
Away Defensive Rating
0.0582
Home Offensive Rating
0.0517
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