Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Sunday, December 14, 2025

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
Maryland Eastern Shore (4-10) @ Virginia Tech (9-2)	Virginia Tech (95.8%)	12:00 PM	14
12:00 PM Maryland Eastern Shore @ Virginia Tech 4-10 vs 9-2 Maryland Eastern Shore 4.2% Virginia Tech 95.8% Model Pick Virginia Tech 95.8% Pick Spread Virginia Tech -28.5 Home ML -20000 Away ML +3500 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.5% MODEL PROB 95.8% VEGAS TRUE 97.3% VEGAS JUICED 99.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Maryland Eastern Shore 67 vs Virginia Tech 88 Total 154.9 Margin +21.1 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff -7.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.5 @90%
Eastern Illinois (2-7) @ Iowa State #4 (10-0)	Iowa State (95.3%)	01:00 PM	35
01:00 PM Eastern Illinois @ Iowa State #4 2-7 vs 10-0 Eastern Illinois 4.7% Iowa State 95.3% Model Pick Iowa State 95.3% Pick Spread Iowa State -44.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Eastern Illinois 57 vs Iowa State 98 Total 154.4 Margin +40.8 Spread DOG COVERS @59% Diff -3.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.5 @78%
Western Michigan (5-5) @ Iowa (8-2)	Iowa (95.3%)	03:00 PM	15
03:00 PM Western Michigan @ Iowa 5-5 vs 8-2 Western Michigan 4.7% Iowa 95.3% Model Pick Iowa 95.3% Pick Spread Iowa -25.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Western Michigan 67 vs Iowa 89 Total 156.1 Margin +21.9 Spread DOG COVERS @61% Diff -3.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.2 @93%
Bethune-Cookman (3-6) @ Missouri (9-2)	Missouri (95.2%)	02:00 PM	15
02:00 PM Bethune-Cookman @ Missouri 3-6 vs 9-2 Bethune-Cookman 4.8% Missouri 95.2% Model Pick Missouri 95.2% Pick Spread Missouri -21.0 Home ML -5000 Away ML +1300 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.0% MODEL PROB 95.2% VEGAS TRUE 93.2% VEGAS JUICED 98.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Bethune-Cookman 72 vs Missouri 91 Total 163.3 Margin +19.3 Spread DOG COVERS @56% Diff -2.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.0 @88%
Eureka (0-1) @ SIU Edwardsville (6-4)	SIU Edwardsville (94.8%)	02:00 PM	5
02:00 PM Eureka @ SIU Edwardsville 0-1 vs 6-4 Eureka 5.2% SIU Edwardsville 94.8% Model Pick SIU Edwardsville 94.8% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Eureka 71 vs SIU Edwardsville 84 Total 154.5 Margin +12.5
Jacksonville (5-5) @ Texas A&M (7-3)	Texas A&M (94.6%)	07:00 PM	5
07:00 PM Jacksonville @ Texas A&M 5-5 vs 7-3 Jacksonville 5.4% Texas A&M 94.6% Model Pick Texas A&M 94.6% Pick Spread Texas A&M -25.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Jacksonville 80 vs Texas A&M 96 Total 175.9 Margin +16.7 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff -8.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 147.8 @98%
Coppin State (2-11) @ Radford (4-7)	Radford (94.5%)	02:30 PM	6
02:30 PM Coppin State @ Radford 2-11 vs 4-7 Coppin State 5.5% Radford 94.5% Model Pick Radford 94.5% Pick Spread Radford -20.5 Home ML -4500 Away ML +1250 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.5% MODEL PROB 94.5% VEGAS TRUE 93.0% VEGAS JUICED 97.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Coppin State 73 vs Radford 94 Total 167.3 Margin +20.9 Spread FAV COVERS @51% Diff +0.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 153.8 @85%
Evergreen State (0-1) @ Idaho (6-4)	Idaho (93.8%)	05:00 PM	6
05:00 PM Evergreen State @ Idaho 0-1 vs 6-4 Evergreen State 6.2% Idaho 93.8% Model Pick Idaho 93.8% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Evergreen State 74 vs Idaho 84 Total 159.0 Margin +10.0
St. Francis (PA) (2-8) @ Temple (5-5)	Temple (92.5%)	12:00 PM	8
12:00 PM +3.2% EDGE St. Francis (PA) @ Temple 2-8 vs 5-5 St. Francis (PA) 7.5% Temple 92.5% Model Pick Temple 92.5% Pick Spread Temple -21.0 Home ML -1350 Away ML +800 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.2% MODEL PROB 92.5% VEGAS TRUE 89.3% VEGAS JUICED 93.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE St. Francis (PA) 67 vs Temple 87 Total 153.4 Margin +20.0 Spread DOG COVERS @52% Diff -0.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 150.2 @60%
Texas Southern (1-6) @ Minnesota (5-5)	Minnesota (92.5%)	01:00 PM	8
01:00 PM +3.1% EDGE Texas Southern @ Minnesota 1-6 vs 5-5 Texas Southern 7.5% Minnesota 92.5% Model Pick Minnesota 92.5% Pick Spread Minnesota -21.5 Home ML -1350 Away ML +800 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.1% MODEL PROB 92.5% VEGAS TRUE 89.3% VEGAS JUICED 93.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Texas Southern 61 vs Minnesota 89 Total 150.3 Margin +28.3 Spread FAV COVERS @70% Diff +6.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.5 @67%
Oakland City (0-1) @ Cleveland State (3-8)	Cleveland State (92.4%)	02:00 PM	8
02:00 PM Oakland City @ Cleveland State 0-1 vs 3-8 Oakland City 7.6% Cleveland State 92.4% Model Pick Cleveland State 92.4% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Oakland City 64 vs Cleveland State 73 Total 137.0 Margin +8.8
Champion Christian (0-4) @ UT Martin (7-3)	UT Martin (92.4%)	05:30 PM	8
05:30 PM Champion Christian @ UT Martin 0-4 vs 7-3 Champion Christian 7.6% UT Martin 92.4% Model Pick UT Martin 92.4% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Champion Christian 80 vs UT Martin 98 Total 177.9 Margin +17.5
Florida Gulf Coast (5-5) @ New Mexico (8-2)	New Mexico (92.2%)	04:00 PM	18
04:00 PM Florida Gulf Coast @ New Mexico 5-5 vs 8-2 Florida Gulf Coast 7.8% New Mexico 92.2% Model Pick New Mexico 92.2% Pick Spread New Mexico -15.5 Home ML -2000 Away ML +950 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.3% MODEL PROB 92.2% VEGAS TRUE 90.9% VEGAS JUICED 95.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Florida Gulf Coast 74 vs New Mexico 97 Total 171.6 Margin +22.8 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 159.2 @83%
Queens University (5-5) @ Wake Forest (7-3)	Wake Forest (92.2%)	05:00 PM	8
05:00 PM +4.5% EDGE Queens University @ Wake Forest 5-5 vs 7-3 Queens University 7.8% Wake Forest 92.2% Model Pick Wake Forest 92.2% Pick Spread Wake Forest -18.5 Home ML -1050 Away ML +675 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.5% MODEL PROB 92.2% VEGAS TRUE 87.6% VEGAS JUICED 91.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Queens University 77 vs Wake Forest 94 Total 171.2 Margin +16.8 Spread DOG COVERS @55% Diff -1.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 166.5 @64%
Washington State (3-7) @ USC (9-1)	USC (89.7%)	07:30 PM	20
07:30 PM Washington State @ USC 3-7 vs 9-1 Washington State 10.3% USC 89.7% Model Pick USC 89.7% Pick Spread USC -14.5 Home ML -1175 Away ML +662 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.1% MODEL PROB 89.7% VEGAS TRUE 87.5% VEGAS JUICED 92.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Washington State 78 vs USC 101 Total 178.6 Margin +23.2 Spread FAV COVERS @75% Diff +8.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 157.0 @95%
Chicago State (0-9) @ Loyola Chicago (3-7)	Loyola Chicago (88.4%)	05:00 PM	12
05:00 PM Chicago State @ Loyola Chicago 0-9 vs 3-7 Chicago State 11.6% Loyola Chicago 88.4% Model Pick Loyola Chicago 88.4% Pick Spread Loyola Chicago -14.5 Home ML -875 Away ML +560 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.8% MODEL PROB 88.4% VEGAS TRUE 85.6% VEGAS JUICED 89.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Chicago State 64 vs Loyola Chicago 89 Total 153.0 Margin +24.2 Spread FAV COVERS @77% Diff +9.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 140.8 @83%
Troy (6-5) @ UAB (7-3)	UAB (77.4%)	03:00 PM	23
03:00 PM +6.5% EDGE Troy @ UAB 6-5 vs 7-3 Troy 22.6% UAB 77.4% Model Pick UAB 77.4% Pick Spread UAB -6.0 Home ML -280 Away ML +230 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.5% MODEL PROB 77.4% VEGAS TRUE 70.9% VEGAS JUICED 73.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Troy 86 vs UAB 88 Total 173.6 Margin +1.4 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff -4.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 155.5 @92%
Detroit Mercy (4-6) @ Purdue Fort Wayne (6-6)	Purdue Fort Wayne (77.1%)	05:00 PM	23
05:00 PM +9.6% EDGE Detroit Mercy @ Purdue Fort Wayne 4-6 vs 6-6 Detroit Mercy 22.9% Purdue Fort Wayne 77.1% Model Pick Purdue Fort Wayne 77.1% Pick Spread Purdue Fort Wayne -9.5 Home ML -238 Away ML +195 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.6% MODEL PROB 77.1% VEGAS TRUE 67.5% VEGAS JUICED 70.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Detroit Mercy 70 vs Purdue Fort Wayne 88 Total 158.8 Margin +17.8 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 153.5 @66%
Ball State (3-7) @ Campbell (4-5)	Campbell (74.8%)	02:00 PM	25
02:00 PM Ball State @ Campbell 3-7 vs 4-5 Ball State 25.2% Campbell 74.8% Model Pick Campbell 74.8% Pick Spread Campbell -8.0 Home ML -327 Away ML +260 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.4% MODEL PROB 74.8% VEGAS TRUE 73.4% VEGAS JUICED 76.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Ball State 75 vs Campbell 82 Total 157.5 Margin +6.7 Spread DOG COVERS @54% Diff -1.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 145.5 @82%
Merrimack (6-6) @ Vermont (6-5)	Vermont (73.2%)	02:00 PM	27
02:00 PM +5.2% EDGE Merrimack @ Vermont 6-6 vs 6-5 Merrimack 26.8% Vermont 73.2% Model Pick Vermont 73.2% Pick Spread Vermont -6.5 Home ML -242 Away ML +200 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.2% MODEL PROB 73.2% VEGAS TRUE 68.0% VEGAS JUICED 70.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Merrimack 66 vs Vermont 77 Total 143.2 Margin +11.2 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 136.0 @71%
Charlotte (4-6) @ Charleston (4-6)	Charleston (72.6%)	04:00 PM	27
04:00 PM +6.2% EDGE Charlotte @ Charleston 4-6 vs 4-6 Charlotte 27.4% Charleston 72.6% Model Pick Charleston 72.6% Pick Spread Charleston -5.5 Home ML -225 Away ML +185 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.2% MODEL PROB 72.6% VEGAS TRUE 66.4% VEGAS JUICED 69.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Charlotte 78 vs Charleston 76 Total 154.2 Margin -1.4 Spread DOG COVERS @70% Diff +6.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 140.5 @85%
Kent State (9-1) @ Portland (6-4)	Kent State (71.3%)	05:00 PM	39
05:00 PM Kent State @ Portland 9-1 vs 6-4 Kent State 71.3% Portland 28.7% Model Pick Kent State 71.3% Pick Spread Kent State -7.5 Home ML +252 Away ML -315 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.5% MODEL PROB 71.3% VEGAS TRUE 72.8% VEGAS JUICED 75.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Kent State 100 vs Portland 100 Total 199.8 Margin -0.2 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff -7.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 160.5 @100%
North Texas (7-3) @ South Alabama (8-2)	South Alabama (67.2%)	05:30 PM	53
05:30 PM +10.4% EDGECLOSE North Texas @ South Alabama 7-3 vs 8-2 North Texas 32.8% South Alabama 67.2% Model Pick South Alabama 67.2% Pick Spread South Alabama -1.5 Home ML -145 Away ML +122 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.4% MODEL PROB 67.2% VEGAS TRUE 56.8% VEGAS JUICED 59.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Texas 72 vs South Alabama 74 Total 146.4 Margin +2.4 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +0.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 133.8 @83%
Indiana State (6-4) @ Milwaukee (4-5)	Milwaukee (65.3%)	02:00 PM	35
02:00 PM Indiana State @ Milwaukee 6-4 vs 4-5 Indiana State 34.7% Milwaukee 65.3% Model Pick Milwaukee 65.3% Pick Spread Milwaukee -4.0 Home ML -185 Away ML +157 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.8% MODEL PROB 65.3% VEGAS TRUE 62.5% VEGAS JUICED 64.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Indiana State 81 vs Milwaukee 83 Total 164.8 Margin +2.0 Spread DOG COVERS @55% Diff -1.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 160.5 @63%
Buffalo (9-1) @ East Carolina (3-7)	East Carolina (60.3%)	01:00 PM	50
01:00 PM +9.8% EDGECLOSE Buffalo @ East Carolina 9-1 vs 3-7 Buffalo 39.7% East Carolina 60.3% Model Pick East Carolina 60.3% Pick Spread East Carolina -2.0 Home ML -112 Away ML -107 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.8% MODEL PROB 60.3% VEGAS TRUE 50.5% VEGAS JUICED 52.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Buffalo 79 vs East Carolina 82 Total 160.5 Margin +2.7 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +1.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 146.5 @86%
App State (6-5) @ High Point (8-2)	High Point (56.9%)	02:00 PM	58
02:00 PM App State @ High Point 6-5 vs 8-2 App State 43.1% High Point 56.9% Model Pick High Point 56.9% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML -275 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE App State 74 vs High Point 84 Total 158.7 Margin +9.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.8 @86%
Saint Mary's (9-1) @ Boise State (7-3)	Boise State (55.8%) DOG	06:00 PM	69
06:00 PM +10.9% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG Saint Mary's @ Boise State 9-1 vs 7-3 Saint Mary's 44.2% Boise State 55.8% Model Pick Boise State 55.8% Pick Spread Boise State +2.5 Home ML +114 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.9% MODEL PROB 55.8% VEGAS TRUE 44.9% VEGAS JUICED 46.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Saint Mary's 75 vs Boise State 81 Total 156.2 Margin +6.2 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.5 @92%
Monmouth (5-5) @ Fairfield (5-5)	Fairfield (50.8%) DOG	02:00 PM	49
02:00 PM +6.6% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG Monmouth @ Fairfield 5-5 vs 5-5 Monmouth 49.2% Fairfield 50.8% Model Pick Fairfield 50.8% Pick Spread Fairfield +2.5 Home ML +117 Away ML -138 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.6% MODEL PROB 50.8% VEGAS TRUE 44.2% VEGAS JUICED 46.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Monmouth 78 vs Fairfield 78 Total 156.3 Margin -0.1 Spread DOG COVERS @57% Diff -2.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 143.5 @84%

RECOMMENDED PICKS CRITERIA

Edge ≥ 4.0 pts • Spread ≤ 12 pts • Confidence ≥ 65%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Detroit Mercy (4-6) @ Purdue Fort Wayne (6-6)	Purdue Fort Wayne (77.1%)	05:00 PM	23
05:00 PM+8.3 PTS EDGE Detroit Mercy @ Purdue Fort Wayne 4-6 vs 6-6 Detroit Mercy 22.9% Purdue Fort Wayne 77.1% Model Pick Purdue Fort Wayne (77.1%) Pick Spread Purdue Fort Wayne -9.5 Home ML -238 Away ML +195 SPREAD EDGE +8.3 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +17.8 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Detroit Mercy 70 vs Purdue Fort Wayne 88 Total 158.8 Margin +17.8 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 153.5 @66%
Charlotte (4-6) @ Charleston (4-6)	Charleston (72.6%)	04:00 PM	27
04:00 PM+6.9 PTS EDGE Charlotte @ Charleston 4-6 vs 4-6 Charlotte 27.4% Charleston 72.6% Model Pick Charleston (72.6%) Pick Spread Charleston -5.5 Home ML -225 Away ML +185 SPREAD EDGE +6.9 pts PREDICTED MARGIN -1.4 COVERAGE NO COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Charlotte 78 vs Charleston 76 Total 154.2 Margin -1.4 Spread DOG COVERS @70% Diff +6.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 140.5 @85%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Saint Mary's (9-1) @ Boise State (7-3)	Boise State (55.8%) DOG	06:00 PM	69
06:00 PM+10.9% EDGE Saint Mary's @ Boise State 9-1 vs 7-3 Saint Mary's 44.2% Boise State 55.8% Model Pick Boise State 55.8% Pick Spread +2.5 Home ML +114 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.9% MODEL PROB 55.8% VEGAS TRUE 44.9% VEGAS JUICED 46.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Saint Mary's 75 vs Boise State 81 Total 156.2 Margin +6.2 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.5 @92%
North Texas (7-3) @ South Alabama (8-2)	South Alabama (67.2%)	05:30 PM	53
05:30 PM+10.4% EDGE North Texas @ South Alabama 7-3 vs 8-2 North Texas 32.8% South Alabama 67.2% Model Pick South Alabama 67.2% Pick Spread -1.5 Home ML -145 Away ML +122 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.4% MODEL PROB 67.2% VEGAS TRUE 56.8% VEGAS JUICED 59.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Texas 72 vs South Alabama 74 Total 146.4 Margin +2.4 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +0.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 133.8 @83%
Buffalo (9-1) @ East Carolina (3-7)	East Carolina (60.3%)	01:00 PM	50
01:00 PM+9.8% EDGE Buffalo @ East Carolina 9-1 vs 3-7 Buffalo 39.7% East Carolina 60.3% Model Pick East Carolina 60.3% Pick Spread -2.0 Home ML -112 Away ML -107 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.8% MODEL PROB 60.3% VEGAS TRUE 50.5% VEGAS JUICED 52.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Buffalo 79 vs East Carolina 82 Total 160.5 Margin +2.7 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +1.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 146.5 @86%
Detroit Mercy (4-6) @ Purdue Fort Wayne (6-6)	Purdue Fort Wayne (77.1%)	05:00 PM	23
05:00 PM+9.6% EDGE Detroit Mercy @ Purdue Fort Wayne 4-6 vs 6-6 Detroit Mercy 22.9% Purdue Fort Wayne 77.1% Model Pick Purdue Fort Wayne 77.1% Pick Spread -9.5 Home ML -238 Away ML +195 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.6% MODEL PROB 77.1% VEGAS TRUE 67.5% VEGAS JUICED 70.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Detroit Mercy 70 vs Purdue Fort Wayne 88 Total 158.8 Margin +17.8 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 153.5 @66%
Monmouth (5-5) @ Fairfield (5-5)	Fairfield (50.8%) DOG	02:00 PM	49
02:00 PM+6.6% EDGE Monmouth @ Fairfield 5-5 vs 5-5 Monmouth 49.2% Fairfield 50.8% Model Pick Fairfield 50.8% Pick Spread +2.5 Home ML +117 Away ML -138 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.6% MODEL PROB 50.8% VEGAS TRUE 44.2% VEGAS JUICED 46.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Monmouth 78 vs Fairfield 78 Total 156.3 Margin -0.1 Spread DOG COVERS @57% Diff -2.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 143.5 @84%
Troy (6-5) @ UAB (7-3)	UAB (77.4%)	03:00 PM	23
03:00 PM+6.5% EDGE Troy @ UAB 6-5 vs 7-3 Troy 22.6% UAB 77.4% Model Pick UAB 77.4% Pick Spread -6.0 Home ML -280 Away ML +230 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.5% MODEL PROB 77.4% VEGAS TRUE 70.9% VEGAS JUICED 73.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Troy 86 vs UAB 88 Total 173.6 Margin +1.4 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff -4.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 155.5 @92%
Charlotte (4-6) @ Charleston (4-6)	Charleston (72.6%)	04:00 PM	27
04:00 PM+6.2% EDGE Charlotte @ Charleston 4-6 vs 4-6 Charlotte 27.4% Charleston 72.6% Model Pick Charleston 72.6% Pick Spread -5.5 Home ML -225 Away ML +185 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.2% MODEL PROB 72.6% VEGAS TRUE 66.4% VEGAS JUICED 69.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Charlotte 78 vs Charleston 76 Total 154.2 Margin -1.4 Spread DOG COVERS @70% Diff +6.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 140.5 @85%
Merrimack (6-6) @ Vermont (6-5)	Vermont (73.2%)	02:00 PM	27
02:00 PM+5.2% EDGE Merrimack @ Vermont 6-6 vs 6-5 Merrimack 26.8% Vermont 73.2% Model Pick Vermont 73.2% Pick Spread -6.5 Home ML -242 Away ML +200 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.2% MODEL PROB 73.2% VEGAS TRUE 68.0% VEGAS JUICED 70.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Merrimack 66 vs Vermont 77 Total 143.2 Margin +11.2 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 136.0 @71%
Queens University (5-5) @ Wake Forest (7-3)	Wake Forest (92.2%)	05:00 PM	8
05:00 PM+4.5% EDGE Queens University @ Wake Forest 5-5 vs 7-3 Queens University 7.8% Wake Forest 92.2% Model Pick Wake Forest 92.2% Pick Spread -18.5 Home ML -1050 Away ML +675 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.5% MODEL PROB 92.2% VEGAS TRUE 87.6% VEGAS JUICED 91.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Queens University 77 vs Wake Forest 94 Total 171.2 Margin +16.8 Spread DOG COVERS @55% Diff -1.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 166.5 @64%
St. Francis (PA) (2-8) @ Temple (5-5)	Temple (92.5%)	12:00 PM	8
12:00 PM+3.2% EDGE St. Francis (PA) @ Temple 2-8 vs 5-5 St. Francis (PA) 7.5% Temple 92.5% Model Pick Temple 92.5% Pick Spread -21.0 Home ML -1350 Away ML +800 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.2% MODEL PROB 92.5% VEGAS TRUE 89.3% VEGAS JUICED 93.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE St. Francis (PA) 67 vs Temple 87 Total 153.4 Margin +20.0 Spread DOG COVERS @52% Diff -0.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 150.2 @60%
Texas Southern (1-6) @ Minnesota (5-5)	Minnesota (92.5%)	01:00 PM	8
01:00 PM+3.1% EDGE Texas Southern @ Minnesota 1-6 vs 5-5 Texas Southern 7.5% Minnesota 92.5% Model Pick Minnesota 92.5% Pick Spread -21.5 Home ML -1350 Away ML +800 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.1% MODEL PROB 92.5% VEGAS TRUE 89.3% VEGAS JUICED 93.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Texas Southern 61 vs Minnesota 89 Total 150.3 Margin +28.3 Spread FAV COVERS @70% Diff +6.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.5 @67%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
North Texas (7-3) @ South Alabama (8-2)	South Alabama (67.2%)	05:30 PM	53
05:30 PMCLOSE North Texas @ South Alabama 7-3 vs 8-2 North Texas 32.8% South Alabama 67.2% Model Pick South Alabama 67.2% Pick Spread South Alabama -1.5 Home ML -145 Away ML +122 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.4% MODEL PROB 67.2% VEGAS TRUE 56.8% VEGAS JUICED 59.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Texas 72 vs South Alabama 74 Total 146.4 Margin +2.4 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +0.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 133.8 @83%
Buffalo (9-1) @ East Carolina (3-7)	East Carolina (60.3%)	01:00 PM	50
01:00 PMCLOSE Buffalo @ East Carolina 9-1 vs 3-7 Buffalo 39.7% East Carolina 60.3% Model Pick East Carolina 60.3% Pick Spread East Carolina -2.0 Home ML -112 Away ML -107 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.8% MODEL PROB 60.3% VEGAS TRUE 50.5% VEGAS JUICED 52.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Buffalo 79 vs East Carolina 82 Total 160.5 Margin +2.7 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +1.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 146.5 @86%
Saint Mary's (9-1) @ Boise State (7-3)	Boise State (55.8%) DOG	06:00 PM	69
06:00 PMCLOSE Saint Mary's @ Boise State 9-1 vs 7-3 Saint Mary's 44.2% Boise State 55.8% Model Pick Boise State 55.8% Pick Spread Boise State +2.5 Home ML +114 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.9% MODEL PROB 55.8% VEGAS TRUE 44.9% VEGAS JUICED 46.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Saint Mary's 75 vs Boise State 81 Total 156.2 Margin +6.2 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.5 @92%
Monmouth (5-5) @ Fairfield (5-5)	Fairfield (50.8%) DOG	02:00 PM	49
02:00 PMCLOSE Monmouth @ Fairfield 5-5 vs 5-5 Monmouth 49.2% Fairfield 50.8% Model Pick Fairfield 50.8% Pick Spread Fairfield +2.5 Home ML +117 Away ML -138 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.6% MODEL PROB 50.8% VEGAS TRUE 44.2% VEGAS JUICED 46.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Monmouth 78 vs Fairfield 78 Total 156.3 Margin -0.1 Spread DOG COVERS @57% Diff -2.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 143.5 @84%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
App State (6-5) @ High Point (8-2)	High Point (56.9%)	+0.0%	02:00 PM	58
02:00 PMUNDERDOG ML App State @ High Point 6-5 vs 8-2 App State 43.1% High Point 56.9% Model Pick High Point 56.9% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML -275 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE App State 74 vs High Point 84 Total 158.7 Margin +9.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.8 @86%
Saint Mary's (9-1) @ Boise State (7-3)	Boise State (55.8%) DOG	+10.9%	06:00 PM	69
06:00 PMUNDERDOG ML Saint Mary's @ Boise State 9-1 vs 7-3 Saint Mary's 44.2% Boise State 55.8% Model Pick Boise State 55.8% Pick Spread Boise State +2.5 Home ML +114 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.9% MODEL PROB 55.8% VEGAS TRUE 44.9% VEGAS JUICED 46.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Saint Mary's 75 vs Boise State 81 Total 156.2 Margin +6.2 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.5 @92%
Monmouth (5-5) @ Fairfield (5-5)	Fairfield (50.8%) DOG	+6.6%	02:00 PM	49
02:00 PMUNDERDOG ML Monmouth @ Fairfield 5-5 vs 5-5 Monmouth 49.2% Fairfield 50.8% Model Pick Fairfield 50.8% Pick Spread Fairfield +2.5 Home ML +117 Away ML -138 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.6% MODEL PROB 50.8% VEGAS TRUE 44.2% VEGAS JUICED 46.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Monmouth 78 vs Fairfield 78 Total 156.3 Margin -0.1 Spread DOG COVERS @57% Diff -2.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 143.5 @84%

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Virginia Tech	Maryland Eastern Shore DOG	4.2%	+3500	⭐⭐⭐ +52.2%	12:00 PM
Boise State vs Saint Mary's	Boise State DOG	55.8%	+114	⭐⭐ +19.4%	06:00 PM
East Carolina vs Buffalo	East Carolina FAV	60.3%	-112	⭐⭐ +14.0%	01:00 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Saint Mary's (9-1) @ Boise State (7-3)	Boise State (55.8%)	+10.9%	06:00 PM	69
06:00 PM+10.9% EDGE Saint Mary's @ Boise State 9-1 vs 7-3 Saint Mary's 44.2% Boise State 55.8% Model Pick Boise State 55.8% Pick Spread +2.5 Home ML +114 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.9% MODEL PROB 55.8% VEGAS TRUE 44.9% VEGAS JUICED 46.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Saint Mary's 75 vs Boise State 81 Total 156.2 Margin +6.2 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.5 @92%
North Texas (7-3) @ South Alabama (8-2)	South Alabama (67.2%)	+10.4%	05:30 PM	53
05:30 PM+10.4% EDGE North Texas @ South Alabama 7-3 vs 8-2 North Texas 32.8% South Alabama 67.2% Model Pick South Alabama 67.2% Pick Spread -1.5 Home ML -145 Away ML +122 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.4% MODEL PROB 67.2% VEGAS TRUE 56.8% VEGAS JUICED 59.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Texas 72 vs South Alabama 74 Total 146.4 Margin +2.4 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +0.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 133.8 @83%
Buffalo (9-1) @ East Carolina (3-7)	East Carolina (60.3%)	+9.8%	01:00 PM	50
01:00 PM+9.8% EDGE Buffalo @ East Carolina 9-1 vs 3-7 Buffalo 39.7% East Carolina 60.3% Model Pick East Carolina 60.3% Pick Spread -2.0 Home ML -112 Away ML -107 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.8% MODEL PROB 60.3% VEGAS TRUE 50.5% VEGAS JUICED 52.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Buffalo 79 vs East Carolina 82 Total 160.5 Margin +2.7 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +1.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 146.5 @86%
Detroit Mercy (4-6) @ Purdue Fort Wayne (6-6)	Purdue Fort Wayne (77.1%)	+9.6%	05:00 PM	23
05:00 PM+9.6% EDGE Detroit Mercy @ Purdue Fort Wayne 4-6 vs 6-6 Detroit Mercy 22.9% Purdue Fort Wayne 77.1% Model Pick Purdue Fort Wayne 77.1% Pick Spread -9.5 Home ML -238 Away ML +195 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.6% MODEL PROB 77.1% VEGAS TRUE 67.5% VEGAS JUICED 70.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Detroit Mercy 70 vs Purdue Fort Wayne 88 Total 158.8 Margin +17.8 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 153.5 @66%
Monmouth (5-5) @ Fairfield (5-5)	Fairfield (50.8%)	+6.6%	02:00 PM	49
02:00 PM+6.6% EDGE Monmouth @ Fairfield 5-5 vs 5-5 Monmouth 49.2% Fairfield 50.8% Model Pick Fairfield 50.8% Pick Spread +2.5 Home ML +117 Away ML -138 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.6% MODEL PROB 50.8% VEGAS TRUE 44.2% VEGAS JUICED 46.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Monmouth 78 vs Fairfield 78 Total 156.3 Margin -0.1 Spread DOG COVERS @57% Diff -2.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 143.5 @84%
Troy (6-5) @ UAB (7-3)	UAB (77.4%)	+6.5%	03:00 PM	23
03:00 PM+6.5% EDGE Troy @ UAB 6-5 vs 7-3 Troy 22.6% UAB 77.4% Model Pick UAB 77.4% Pick Spread -6.0 Home ML -280 Away ML +230 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.5% MODEL PROB 77.4% VEGAS TRUE 70.9% VEGAS JUICED 73.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Troy 86 vs UAB 88 Total 173.6 Margin +1.4 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff -4.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 155.5 @92%
Charlotte (4-6) @ Charleston (4-6)	Charleston (72.6%)	+6.2%	04:00 PM	27
04:00 PM+6.2% EDGE Charlotte @ Charleston 4-6 vs 4-6 Charlotte 27.4% Charleston 72.6% Model Pick Charleston 72.6% Pick Spread -5.5 Home ML -225 Away ML +185 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.2% MODEL PROB 72.6% VEGAS TRUE 66.4% VEGAS JUICED 69.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Charlotte 78 vs Charleston 76 Total 154.2 Margin -1.4 Spread DOG COVERS @70% Diff +6.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 140.5 @85%
Merrimack (6-6) @ Vermont (6-5)	Vermont (73.2%)	+5.2%	02:00 PM	27
02:00 PM+5.2% EDGE Merrimack @ Vermont 6-6 vs 6-5 Merrimack 26.8% Vermont 73.2% Model Pick Vermont 73.2% Pick Spread -6.5 Home ML -242 Away ML +200 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.2% MODEL PROB 73.2% VEGAS TRUE 68.0% VEGAS JUICED 70.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Merrimack 66 vs Vermont 77 Total 143.2 Margin +11.2 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 136.0 @71%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Saint Mary's (9-1) @ Boise State (7-3)	Boise State (55.8%)	+10.9%	06:00 PM	69
06:00 PM+10.9% EDGE Saint Mary's @ Boise State 9-1 vs 7-3 Saint Mary's 44.2% Boise State 55.8% Model Pick Boise State 55.8% Pick Spread +2.5 Home ML +114 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.9% MODEL PROB 55.8% VEGAS TRUE 44.9% VEGAS JUICED 46.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Saint Mary's 75 vs Boise State 81 Total 156.2 Margin +6.2 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.5 @92%
North Texas (7-3) @ South Alabama (8-2)	South Alabama (67.2%)	+10.4%	05:30 PM	53
05:30 PM+10.4% EDGE North Texas @ South Alabama 7-3 vs 8-2 North Texas 32.8% South Alabama 67.2% Model Pick South Alabama 67.2% Pick Spread -1.5 Home ML -145 Away ML +122 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.4% MODEL PROB 67.2% VEGAS TRUE 56.8% VEGAS JUICED 59.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Texas 72 vs South Alabama 74 Total 146.4 Margin +2.4 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +0.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 133.8 @83%

Model Information

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Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

XGBoost Win/Loss Model