Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
Abilene Christian (7-3) @ Arizona #1 (9-0)	Arizona (96.2%)	09:00 PM	44
09:00 PM Abilene Christian @ Arizona #1 7-3 vs 9-0 Abilene Christian 3.8% Arizona 96.2% Model Pick Arizona 96.2% Pick Spread Arizona -33.5 Home ML -100000 Away ML +5000 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.8% MODEL PROB 96.2% VEGAS TRUE 98.1% VEGAS JUICED 99.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Abilene Christian 59 vs Arizona 88 Total 146.8 Margin +29.2 Spread DOG COVERS @63% Diff -4.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 143.8 @59%
Queens University (5-6) @ Arkansas #14 (8-2)	Arkansas (96.0%)	09:00 PM	29
09:00 PM Queens University @ Arkansas #14 5-6 vs 8-2 Queens University 4.0% Arkansas 96.0% Model Pick Arkansas 96.0% Pick Spread Arkansas -23.5 Home ML -4500 Away ML +1700 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.4% MODEL PROB 96.0% VEGAS TRUE 94.6% VEGAS JUICED 97.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Queens University 69 vs Arkansas 87 Total 155.7 Margin +18.3 Spread DOG COVERS @66% Diff -5.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 172.5 @90%
Toledo (5-5) @ Michigan State #9 (9-1)	Michigan State (96.0%)	06:30 PM	29
06:30 PM Toledo @ Michigan State #9 5-5 vs 9-1 Toledo 4.0% Michigan State 96.0% Model Pick Michigan State 96.0% Pick Spread Michigan State -24.5 Home ML -100000 Away ML +1600 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.6% MODEL PROB 96.0% VEGAS TRUE 94.4% VEGAS JUICED 99.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Toledo 62 vs Michigan State 87 Total 148.2 Margin +25.2 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.5 @60%
Kansas City (2-9) @ Oklahoma (7-3)	Oklahoma (95.4%)	07:00 PM	5
07:00 PM Kansas City @ Oklahoma 2-9 vs 7-3 Kansas City 4.6% Oklahoma 95.4% Model Pick Oklahoma 95.4% Pick Spread Oklahoma -29.5 Home ML -20000 Away ML +3500 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.9% MODEL PROB 95.4% VEGAS TRUE 97.3% VEGAS JUICED 99.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Kansas City 62 vs Oklahoma 84 Total 146.4 Margin +22.4 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff -7.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 152.5 @68%
Le Moyne (5-5) @ Texas (7-4)	Texas (95.2%)	08:00 PM	5
08:00 PM Le Moyne @ Texas 5-5 vs 7-4 Le Moyne 4.8% Texas 95.2% Model Pick Texas 95.2% Pick Spread Texas -29.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Le Moyne 67 vs Texas 92 Total 158.8 Margin +24.2 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff -5.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 152.8 @68%
Pacific (8-3) @ BYU #10 (9-1)	BYU (94.9%)	09:00 PM	40
09:00 PM Pacific @ BYU #10 8-3 vs 9-1 Pacific 5.1% BYU 94.9% Model Pick BYU 94.9% Pick Spread BYU -25.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Pacific 58 vs BYU 82 Total 139.3 Margin +24.3 Spread DOG COVERS @51% Diff -0.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.2 @75%
Lipscomb (6-4) @ Duke #3 (10-0)	Duke (94.7%)	06:00 PM	35
06:00 PM Lipscomb @ Duke #3 6-4 vs 10-0 Lipscomb 5.3% Duke 94.7% Model Pick Duke 94.7% Pick Spread Duke -32.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Lipscomb 61 vs Duke 86 Total 146.8 Margin +25.2 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff -7.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.5 @64%
Florida International (5-3) @ Miami (9-2)	Miami (94.7%)	07:00 PM	25
07:00 PM Florida International @ Miami 5-3 vs 9-2 Florida International 5.3% Miami 94.7% Model Pick Miami 94.7% Pick Spread Miami -23.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Florida International 66 vs Miami 82 Total 147.5 Margin +15.9 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff -7.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 157.5 @78%
Mary Baldwin (0-1) @ High Point (8-3)	High Point (94.7%)	07:00 PM	15
07:00 PM Mary Baldwin @ High Point 0-1 vs 8-3 Mary Baldwin 5.3% High Point 94.7% Model Pick High Point 94.7% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Mary Baldwin 71 vs High Point 83 Total 154.6 Margin +12.0
East-West University (0-1) @ Northern Illinois (3-7)	Northern Illinois (94.5%)	08:00 PM	6
08:00 PM East-West University @ Northern Illinois 0-1 vs 3-7 East-West University 5.5% Northern Illinois 94.5% Model Pick Northern Illinois 94.5% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE East-West University 73 vs Northern Illinois 90 Total 163.8 Margin +17.2
Northern Colorado (9-1) @ Texas Tech #19 (7-3)	Texas Tech (94.4%)	08:00 PM	41
08:00 PM Northern Colorado @ Texas Tech #19 9-1 vs 7-3 Northern Colorado 5.6% Texas Tech 94.4% Model Pick Texas Tech 94.4% Pick Spread Texas Tech -25.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Northern Colorado 64 vs Texas Tech 88 Total 152.9 Margin +24.1 Spread DOG COVERS @54% Diff -1.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 153.5 @52%
DePaul (8-3) @ St. John's #22 (6-3)	St. John's (94.1%)	07:00 PM	41
07:00 PM DePaul @ St. John's #22 8-3 vs 6-3 DePaul 5.9% St. John's 94.1% Model Pick St. John's 94.1% Pick Spread St. John's -19.5 Home ML -3500 Away ML +1150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.7% MODEL PROB 94.1% VEGAS TRUE 92.4% VEGAS JUICED 97.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE DePaul 66 vs St. John's 81 Total 146.8 Margin +14.6 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff -4.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.8 @65%
Chicago State (1-9) @ Bowling Green (7-3)	Bowling Green (94.0%)	07:00 PM	6
07:00 PM Chicago State @ Bowling Green 1-9 vs 7-3 Chicago State 6.0% Bowling Green 94.0% Model Pick Bowling Green 94.0% Pick Spread Bowling Green -22.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Chicago State 64 vs Bowling Green 88 Total 151.8 Margin +23.6 Spread FAV COVERS @55% Diff +1.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.2 @61%
Canisius (5-6) @ Rhode Island (7-4)	Rhode Island (93.5%)	07:00 PM	6
07:00 PM Canisius @ Rhode Island 5-6 vs 7-4 Canisius 6.5% Rhode Island 93.5% Model Pick Rhode Island 93.5% Pick Spread Rhode Island -21.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Canisius 56 vs Rhode Island 74 Total 130.4 Margin +18.4 Spread DOG COVERS @59% Diff -3.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 134.5 @62%
Ohio Wesleyan (0-1) @ Ohio (4-6)	Ohio (93.0%)	07:00 PM	7
07:00 PM Ohio Wesleyan @ Ohio 0-1 vs 4-6 Ohio Wesleyan 7.0% Ohio 93.0% Model Pick Ohio 93.0% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Ohio Wesleyan 67 vs Ohio 82 Total 149.1 Margin +14.7
Midway University (0-3) @ Liberty (6-3)	Liberty (92.9%)	06:00 PM	7
06:00 PM Midway University @ Liberty 0-3 vs 6-3 Midway University 7.1% Liberty 92.9% Model Pick Liberty 92.9% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Midway University 71 vs Liberty 84 Total 154.9 Margin +13.1
East Tennessee State (8-3) @ North Carolina #12 (9-1)	North Carolina (91.9%)	08:00 PM	43
08:00 PM East Tennessee State @ North Carolina #12 8-3 vs 9-1 East Tennessee State 8.1% North Carolina 91.9% Model Pick North Carolina 91.9% Pick Spread North Carolina -17.0 Home ML -100000 Away ML +875 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.2% MODEL PROB 91.9% VEGAS TRUE 90.7% VEGAS JUICED 99.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE East Tennessee State 64 vs North Carolina 80 Total 144.2 Margin +16.4 Spread DOG COVERS @52% Diff -0.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 149.8 @67%
Valparaiso (6-4) @ Northwestern (6-4)	Northwestern (91.6%)	08:00 PM	8
08:00 PM Valparaiso @ Northwestern 6-4 vs 6-4 Valparaiso 8.4% Northwestern 91.6% Model Pick Northwestern 91.6% Pick Spread Northwestern -16.5 Home ML -2200 Away ML +1000 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.3% MODEL PROB 91.6% VEGAS TRUE 91.3% VEGAS JUICED 95.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Valparaiso 63 vs Northwestern 76 Total 138.1 Margin +12.9 Spread DOG COVERS @61% Diff -3.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 144.2 @68%
Towson (6-4) @ Kansas #17 (8-3)	Kansas (91.1%)	09:00 PM	34
09:00 PM Towson @ Kansas #17 6-4 vs 8-3 Towson 8.9% Kansas 91.1% Model Pick Kansas 91.1% Pick Spread Kansas -16.0 Home ML -1900 Away ML +900 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.6% MODEL PROB 91.1% VEGAS TRUE 90.5% VEGAS JUICED 95.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Towson 62 vs Kansas 77 Total 138.9 Margin +15.9 Spread FAV COVERS @50% Diff +0.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 133.8 @65%
Long Island University (6-4) @ Mississippi State (5-5)	Mississippi State (91.0%)	07:30 PM	9
07:30 PM Long Island University @ Mississippi State 6-4 vs 5-5 Long Island University 9.0% Mississippi State 91.0% Model Pick Mississippi State 91.0% Pick Spread Mississippi State -15.5 Home ML -2000 Away ML +950 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.1% MODEL PROB 91.0% VEGAS TRUE 90.9% VEGAS JUICED 95.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Long Island University 65 vs Mississippi State 83 Total 148.3 Margin +17.9 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 152.5 @63%
Kentucky Christian (0-3) @ UNC Asheville (4-7)	UNC Asheville (90.1%)	06:30 PM	10
06:30 PM Kentucky Christian @ UNC Asheville 0-3 vs 4-7 Kentucky Christian 9.9% UNC Asheville 90.1% Model Pick UNC Asheville 90.1% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Kentucky Christian 72 vs UNC Asheville 88 Total 160.7 Margin +15.7
South Carolina (7-3) @ Clemson (8-3)	Clemson (88.3%)	07:00 PM	32
07:00 PM South Carolina @ Clemson 7-3 vs 8-3 South Carolina 11.7% Clemson 88.3% Model Pick Clemson 88.3% Pick Spread Clemson -12.5 Home ML -950 Away ML +600 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.9% MODEL PROB 88.3% VEGAS TRUE 86.4% VEGAS JUICED 90.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE South Carolina 67 vs Clemson 80 Total 146.9 Margin +12.9 Spread FAV COVERS @51% Diff +0.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 142.2 @64%
Butler (8-2) @ UConn #5 (10-1)	UConn (88.0%)	08:30 PM	52
08:30 PM Butler @ UConn #5 8-2 vs 10-1 Butler 12.0% UConn 88.0% Model Pick UConn 88.0% Pick Spread UConn -15.0 Home ML -1600 Away ML +800 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.4% MODEL PROB 88.0% VEGAS TRUE 89.4% VEGAS JUICED 94.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Butler 62 vs UConn 78 Total 139.3 Margin +15.7 Spread FAV COVERS @51% Diff +0.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.5 @74%
Southern (4-6) @ California Baptist (8-3)	California Baptist (83.7%)	10:00 PM	26
10:00 PM Southern @ California Baptist 4-6 vs 8-3 Southern 16.3% California Baptist 83.7% Model Pick California Baptist 83.7% Pick Spread California Baptist -12.0 Home ML -750 Away ML +500 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.4% MODEL PROB 83.7% VEGAS TRUE 84.1% VEGAS JUICED 88.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Southern 69 vs California Baptist 84 Total 153.2 Margin +15.6 Spread FAV COVERS @60% Diff +3.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 155.0 @56%
Rider (1-8) @ Delaware (3-7)	Delaware (81.5%)	07:00 PM	18
07:00 PM Rider @ Delaware 1-8 vs 3-7 Rider 18.5% Delaware 81.5% Model Pick Delaware 81.5% Pick Spread Delaware -10.0 Home ML -490 Away ML +355 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.4% MODEL PROB 81.5% VEGAS TRUE 79.1% VEGAS JUICED 83.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Rider 56 vs Delaware 70 Total 126.1 Margin +13.3 Spread FAV COVERS @59% Diff +3.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 131.5 @66%
North Carolina A&T (5-4) @ UNC Greensboro (3-8)	UNC Greensboro (81.0%)	07:00 PM	19
07:00 PM North Carolina A&T @ UNC Greensboro 5-4 vs 3-8 North Carolina A&T 19.0% UNC Greensboro 81.0% Model Pick UNC Greensboro 81.0% Pick Spread UNC Greensboro -7.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Carolina A&T 66 vs UNC Greensboro 78 Total 144.2 Margin +11.2 Spread FAV COVERS @61% Diff +3.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 149.5 @66%
Florida State (5-5) @ Dayton (8-3)	Dayton (78.5%)	07:00 PM	32
07:00 PM +9.6% EDGE Florida State @ Dayton 5-5 vs 8-3 Florida State 21.5% Dayton 78.5% Model Pick Dayton 78.5% Pick Spread Dayton -7.0 Home ML -250 Away ML +210 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.6% MODEL PROB 78.5% VEGAS TRUE 68.9% VEGAS JUICED 71.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Florida State 70 vs Dayton 83 Total 152.3 Margin +13.3 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.8 @74%
Louisville #11 (9-1) @ Tennessee #20 (7-3)	Tennessee (76.7%)	07:00 PM	73
07:00 PM CLOSE Louisville #11 @ Tennessee #20 9-1 vs 7-3 Louisville 23.3% Tennessee 76.7% Model Pick Tennessee 76.7% Pick Spread Tennessee -2.5 Home ML -118 Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Louisville 69 vs Tennessee 79 Total 148.1 Margin +9.7 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 157.8 @77%
Howard (7-5) @ Drexel (4-6)	Drexel (76.6%)	11:00 AM	23
11:00 AM +5.7% EDGE Howard @ Drexel 7-5 vs 4-6 Howard 23.4% Drexel 76.6% Model Pick Drexel 76.6% Pick Spread Drexel -6.0 Home ML -280 Away ML +230 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.7% MODEL PROB 76.6% VEGAS TRUE 70.9% VEGAS JUICED 73.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Howard 69 vs Drexel 81 Total 150.0 Margin +12.8 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.0 @82%
Marist (7-2) @ Georgia Tech (6-4)	Georgia Tech (76.4%)	07:30 PM	34
07:30 PM +5.2% EDGE Marist @ Georgia Tech 7-2 vs 6-4 Marist 23.6% Georgia Tech 76.4% Model Pick Georgia Tech 76.4% Pick Spread Georgia Tech -6.5 Home ML -285 Away ML +235 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.2% MODEL PROB 76.4% VEGAS TRUE 71.3% VEGAS JUICED 74.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Marist 64 vs Georgia Tech 72 Total 136.2 Margin +8.4 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +1.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 139.5 @60%
Oral Roberts (5-7) @ Missouri State (4-5)	Missouri State (73.9%)	08:00 PM	26
08:00 PM +6.1% EDGE Oral Roberts @ Missouri State 5-7 vs 4-5 Oral Roberts 26.1% Missouri State 73.9% Model Pick Missouri State 73.9% Pick Spread Missouri State -4.5 Home ML -239 Away ML +197 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.1% MODEL PROB 73.9% VEGAS TRUE 67.7% VEGAS JUICED 70.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Oral Roberts 68 vs Missouri State 80 Total 148.2 Margin +12.2 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 142.0 @68%
South Carolina Upstate (6-6) @ South Carolina State (0-11)	South Carolina State (73.2%) DOG	06:00 PM	27
06:00 PM UNDERDOG South Carolina Upstate @ South Carolina State 6-6 vs 0-11 South Carolina Upstate 26.8% South Carolina State 73.2% Model Pick South Carolina State 73.2% Pick Spread South Carolina State +10.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE South Carolina Upstate 79 vs South Carolina State 67 Total 145.8 Margin -11.6 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +1.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.5 @55%
Little Rock (2-8) @ Morehead State (3-7)	Morehead State (69.8%)	07:30 PM	30
07:30 PM +8.7% EDGECLOSE Little Rock @ Morehead State 2-8 vs 3-7 Little Rock 30.2% Morehead State 69.8% Model Pick Morehead State 69.8% Pick Spread Morehead State -3.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +147 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.7% MODEL PROB 69.8% VEGAS TRUE 61.1% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Little Rock 67 vs Morehead State 78 Total 145.7 Margin +11.3 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 140.0 @67%
UT Rio Grande Valley (3-6) @ Lamar (5-4)	Lamar (67.0%)	07:00 PM	33
07:00 PM +8.5% EDGECLOSE UT Rio Grande Valley @ Lamar 3-6 vs 5-4 UT Rio Grande Valley 33.0% Lamar 67.0% Model Pick Lamar 67.0% Pick Spread Lamar -3.5 Home ML -155 Away ML +132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.5% MODEL PROB 67.0% VEGAS TRUE 58.5% VEGAS JUICED 60.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Rio Grande Valley 64 vs Lamar 73 Total 136.5 Margin +9.1 Spread FAV COVERS @67% Diff +5.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 138.2 @55%
Belmont (10-1) @ Evansville (4-7)	Belmont (66.3%)	07:00 PM	44
07:00 PM Belmont @ Evansville 10-1 vs 4-7 Belmont 66.3% Evansville 33.7% Model Pick Belmont 66.3% Pick Spread Belmont -9.0 Home ML +330 Away ML -440 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -11.5% MODEL PROB 66.3% VEGAS TRUE 77.8% VEGAS JUICED 81.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Belmont 76 vs Evansville 74 Total 150.4 Margin -1.6 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff -7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.5 @56%
Tarleton State (7-4) @ Mississippi Valley State (1-9)	Tarleton State (64.8%)	07:00 PM	35
07:00 PM Tarleton State @ Mississippi Valley State 7-4 vs 1-9 Tarleton State 64.8% Mississippi Valley State 35.2% Model Pick Tarleton State 64.8% Pick Spread Tarleton State -14.5 Home ML +900 Away ML -1900 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -25.7% MODEL PROB 64.8% VEGAS TRUE 90.5% VEGAS JUICED 95.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Tarleton State 78 vs Mississippi Valley State 71 Total 148.6 Margin -6.8 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff -7.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 145.5 @59%
Miami (OH) (10-0) @ Wright State (5-6)	Wright State (61.1%)	07:00 PM	49
07:00 PM +10.2% EDGECLOSE Miami (OH) @ Wright State 10-0 vs 5-6 Miami (OH) 38.9% Wright State 61.1% Model Pick Wright State 61.1% Pick Spread Wright State -1.0 Home ML -114 Away ML -106 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.2% MODEL PROB 61.1% VEGAS TRUE 50.9% VEGAS JUICED 53.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Miami (OH) 72 vs Wright State 79 Total 150.3 Margin +7.3 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.5 @54%
Sacred Heart (4-6) @ UMass Lowell (4-8)	UMass Lowell (57.2%) DOG	06:00 PM	43
06:00 PM CLOSEUNDERDOG Sacred Heart @ UMass Lowell 4-6 vs 4-8 Sacred Heart 42.8% UMass Lowell 57.2% Model Pick UMass Lowell 57.2% Pick Spread UMass Lowell +3.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -127 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Sacred Heart 74 vs UMass Lowell 78 Total 151.7 Margin +4.3 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 153.2 @55%
Dartmouth (4-5) @ Holy Cross (5-6)	Holy Cross (55.6%) DOG	06:00 PM	44
06:00 PM CLOSEUNDERDOG Dartmouth @ Holy Cross 4-5 vs 5-6 Dartmouth 44.4% Holy Cross 55.6% Model Pick Holy Cross 55.6% Pick Spread Holy Cross +1.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -122 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Dartmouth 65 vs Holy Cross 72 Total 137.2 Margin +7.6 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.5 @76%
Montana State (4-7) @ Cal Poly (5-6)	Cal Poly (55.5%) DOG	10:00 PM	44
10:00 PM +11.7% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG Montana State @ Cal Poly 4-7 vs 5-6 Montana State 44.5% Cal Poly 55.5% Model Pick Cal Poly 55.5% Pick Spread Cal Poly +3.5 Home ML +125 Away ML -132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.7% MODEL PROB 55.5% VEGAS TRUE 43.8% VEGAS JUICED 44.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Montana State 76 vs Cal Poly 80 Total 156.5 Margin +3.9 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff +7.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 159.2 @58%
UC San Diego (9-1) @ Loyola Marymount (7-3)	Loyola Marymount (53.1%) DOG	11:30 PM	67
11:30 PM +11.2% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG UC San Diego @ Loyola Marymount 9-1 vs 7-3 UC San Diego 46.9% Loyola Marymount 53.1% Model Pick Loyola Marymount 53.1% Pick Spread Loyola Marymount +2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -153 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.2% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 41.8% VEGAS JUICED 43.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UC San Diego 68 vs Loyola Marymount 74 Total 141.2 Margin +5.8 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +8.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.5 @69%

RECOMMENDED PICKS CRITERIA

Edge ≥ 4.0 pts • Spread ≤ 12 pts • Confidence ≥ 65%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Oral Roberts (5-7) @ Missouri State (4-5)	Missouri State (73.9%)	08:00 PM	26
08:00 PM+7.7 PTS EDGE Oral Roberts @ Missouri State 5-7 vs 4-5 Oral Roberts 26.1% Missouri State 73.9% Model Pick Missouri State (73.9%) Pick Spread Missouri State -4.5 Home ML -239 Away ML +197 SPREAD EDGE +7.7 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +12.2 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Oral Roberts 68 vs Missouri State 80 Total 148.2 Margin +12.2 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 142.0 @68%
Louisville #11 (9-1) @ Tennessee #20 (7-3)	Tennessee (76.7%)	07:00 PM	73
07:00 PM+7.2 PTS EDGE Louisville #11 @ Tennessee #20 9-1 vs 7-3 Louisville 23.3% Tennessee 76.7% Model Pick Tennessee (76.7%) Pick Spread Tennessee -2.5 Home ML -118 Away ML N/A SPREAD EDGE +7.2 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +9.7 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Louisville 69 vs Tennessee 79 Total 148.1 Margin +9.7 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 157.8 @77%
Howard (7-5) @ Drexel (4-6)	Drexel (76.6%)	11:00 AM	23
11:00 AM+6.6 PTS EDGE Howard @ Drexel 7-5 vs 4-6 Howard 23.4% Drexel 76.6% Model Pick Drexel (76.6%) Pick Spread Drexel -6.0 Home ML -280 Away ML +230 SPREAD EDGE +6.6 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +12.8 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Howard 69 vs Drexel 81 Total 150.0 Margin +12.8 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.0 @82%
Florida State (5-5) @ Dayton (8-3)	Dayton (78.5%)	07:00 PM	32
07:00 PM+6.0 PTS EDGE Florida State @ Dayton 5-5 vs 8-3 Florida State 21.5% Dayton 78.5% Model Pick Dayton (78.5%) Pick Spread Dayton -7.0 Home ML -250 Away ML +210 SPREAD EDGE +6.0 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +13.3 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Florida State 70 vs Dayton 83 Total 152.3 Margin +13.3 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.8 @74%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Montana State (4-7) @ Cal Poly (5-6)	Cal Poly (55.5%) DOG	10:00 PM	44
10:00 PM+11.7% EDGE Montana State @ Cal Poly 4-7 vs 5-6 Montana State 44.5% Cal Poly 55.5% Model Pick Cal Poly 55.5% Pick Spread +3.5 Home ML +125 Away ML -132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.7% MODEL PROB 55.5% VEGAS TRUE 43.8% VEGAS JUICED 44.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Montana State 76 vs Cal Poly 80 Total 156.5 Margin +3.9 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff +7.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 159.2 @58%
UC San Diego (9-1) @ Loyola Marymount (7-3)	Loyola Marymount (53.1%) DOG	11:30 PM	67
11:30 PM+11.2% EDGE UC San Diego @ Loyola Marymount 9-1 vs 7-3 UC San Diego 46.9% Loyola Marymount 53.1% Model Pick Loyola Marymount 53.1% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -153 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.2% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 41.8% VEGAS JUICED 43.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UC San Diego 68 vs Loyola Marymount 74 Total 141.2 Margin +5.8 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +8.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.5 @69%
Miami (OH) (10-0) @ Wright State (5-6)	Wright State (61.1%)	07:00 PM	49
07:00 PM+10.2% EDGE Miami (OH) @ Wright State 10-0 vs 5-6 Miami (OH) 38.9% Wright State 61.1% Model Pick Wright State 61.1% Pick Spread -1.0 Home ML -114 Away ML -106 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.2% MODEL PROB 61.1% VEGAS TRUE 50.9% VEGAS JUICED 53.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Miami (OH) 72 vs Wright State 79 Total 150.3 Margin +7.3 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.5 @54%
Florida State (5-5) @ Dayton (8-3)	Dayton (78.5%)	07:00 PM	32
07:00 PM+9.6% EDGE Florida State @ Dayton 5-5 vs 8-3 Florida State 21.5% Dayton 78.5% Model Pick Dayton 78.5% Pick Spread -7.0 Home ML -250 Away ML +210 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.6% MODEL PROB 78.5% VEGAS TRUE 68.9% VEGAS JUICED 71.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Florida State 70 vs Dayton 83 Total 152.3 Margin +13.3 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.8 @74%
Little Rock (2-8) @ Morehead State (3-7)	Morehead State (69.8%)	07:30 PM	30
07:30 PM+8.7% EDGE Little Rock @ Morehead State 2-8 vs 3-7 Little Rock 30.2% Morehead State 69.8% Model Pick Morehead State 69.8% Pick Spread -3.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +147 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.7% MODEL PROB 69.8% VEGAS TRUE 61.1% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Little Rock 67 vs Morehead State 78 Total 145.7 Margin +11.3 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 140.0 @67%
UT Rio Grande Valley (3-6) @ Lamar (5-4)	Lamar (67.0%)	07:00 PM	33
07:00 PM+8.5% EDGE UT Rio Grande Valley @ Lamar 3-6 vs 5-4 UT Rio Grande Valley 33.0% Lamar 67.0% Model Pick Lamar 67.0% Pick Spread -3.5 Home ML -155 Away ML +132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.5% MODEL PROB 67.0% VEGAS TRUE 58.5% VEGAS JUICED 60.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Rio Grande Valley 64 vs Lamar 73 Total 136.5 Margin +9.1 Spread FAV COVERS @67% Diff +5.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 138.2 @55%
Oral Roberts (5-7) @ Missouri State (4-5)	Missouri State (73.9%)	08:00 PM	26
08:00 PM+6.1% EDGE Oral Roberts @ Missouri State 5-7 vs 4-5 Oral Roberts 26.1% Missouri State 73.9% Model Pick Missouri State 73.9% Pick Spread -4.5 Home ML -239 Away ML +197 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.1% MODEL PROB 73.9% VEGAS TRUE 67.7% VEGAS JUICED 70.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Oral Roberts 68 vs Missouri State 80 Total 148.2 Margin +12.2 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 142.0 @68%
Howard (7-5) @ Drexel (4-6)	Drexel (76.6%)	11:00 AM	23
11:00 AM+5.7% EDGE Howard @ Drexel 7-5 vs 4-6 Howard 23.4% Drexel 76.6% Model Pick Drexel 76.6% Pick Spread -6.0 Home ML -280 Away ML +230 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.7% MODEL PROB 76.6% VEGAS TRUE 70.9% VEGAS JUICED 73.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Howard 69 vs Drexel 81 Total 150.0 Margin +12.8 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.0 @82%
Marist (7-2) @ Georgia Tech (6-4)	Georgia Tech (76.4%)	07:30 PM	34
07:30 PM+5.2% EDGE Marist @ Georgia Tech 7-2 vs 6-4 Marist 23.6% Georgia Tech 76.4% Model Pick Georgia Tech 76.4% Pick Spread -6.5 Home ML -285 Away ML +235 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.2% MODEL PROB 76.4% VEGAS TRUE 71.3% VEGAS JUICED 74.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Marist 64 vs Georgia Tech 72 Total 136.2 Margin +8.4 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +1.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 139.5 @60%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Louisville #11 (9-1) @ Tennessee #20 (7-3)	Tennessee (76.7%)	07:00 PM	73
07:00 PMCLOSE Louisville #11 @ Tennessee #20 9-1 vs 7-3 Louisville 23.3% Tennessee 76.7% Model Pick Tennessee 76.7% Pick Spread Tennessee -2.5 Home ML -118 Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Louisville 69 vs Tennessee 79 Total 148.1 Margin +9.7 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 157.8 @77%
Little Rock (2-8) @ Morehead State (3-7)	Morehead State (69.8%)	07:30 PM	30
07:30 PMCLOSE Little Rock @ Morehead State 2-8 vs 3-7 Little Rock 30.2% Morehead State 69.8% Model Pick Morehead State 69.8% Pick Spread Morehead State -3.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +147 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.7% MODEL PROB 69.8% VEGAS TRUE 61.1% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Little Rock 67 vs Morehead State 78 Total 145.7 Margin +11.3 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 140.0 @67%
UT Rio Grande Valley (3-6) @ Lamar (5-4)	Lamar (67.0%)	07:00 PM	33
07:00 PMCLOSE UT Rio Grande Valley @ Lamar 3-6 vs 5-4 UT Rio Grande Valley 33.0% Lamar 67.0% Model Pick Lamar 67.0% Pick Spread Lamar -3.5 Home ML -155 Away ML +132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.5% MODEL PROB 67.0% VEGAS TRUE 58.5% VEGAS JUICED 60.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Rio Grande Valley 64 vs Lamar 73 Total 136.5 Margin +9.1 Spread FAV COVERS @67% Diff +5.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 138.2 @55%
Miami (OH) (10-0) @ Wright State (5-6)	Wright State (61.1%)	07:00 PM	49
07:00 PMCLOSE Miami (OH) @ Wright State 10-0 vs 5-6 Miami (OH) 38.9% Wright State 61.1% Model Pick Wright State 61.1% Pick Spread Wright State -1.0 Home ML -114 Away ML -106 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.2% MODEL PROB 61.1% VEGAS TRUE 50.9% VEGAS JUICED 53.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Miami (OH) 72 vs Wright State 79 Total 150.3 Margin +7.3 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.5 @54%
Sacred Heart (4-6) @ UMass Lowell (4-8)	UMass Lowell (57.2%) DOG	06:00 PM	43
06:00 PMCLOSE Sacred Heart @ UMass Lowell 4-6 vs 4-8 Sacred Heart 42.8% UMass Lowell 57.2% Model Pick UMass Lowell 57.2% Pick Spread UMass Lowell +3.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -127 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Sacred Heart 74 vs UMass Lowell 78 Total 151.7 Margin +4.3 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 153.2 @55%
Dartmouth (4-5) @ Holy Cross (5-6)	Holy Cross (55.6%) DOG	06:00 PM	44
06:00 PMCLOSE Dartmouth @ Holy Cross 4-5 vs 5-6 Dartmouth 44.4% Holy Cross 55.6% Model Pick Holy Cross 55.6% Pick Spread Holy Cross +1.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -122 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Dartmouth 65 vs Holy Cross 72 Total 137.2 Margin +7.6 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.5 @76%
Montana State (4-7) @ Cal Poly (5-6)	Cal Poly (55.5%) DOG	10:00 PM	44
10:00 PMCLOSE Montana State @ Cal Poly 4-7 vs 5-6 Montana State 44.5% Cal Poly 55.5% Model Pick Cal Poly 55.5% Pick Spread Cal Poly +3.5 Home ML +125 Away ML -132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.7% MODEL PROB 55.5% VEGAS TRUE 43.8% VEGAS JUICED 44.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Montana State 76 vs Cal Poly 80 Total 156.5 Margin +3.9 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff +7.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 159.2 @58%
UC San Diego (9-1) @ Loyola Marymount (7-3)	Loyola Marymount (53.1%) DOG	11:30 PM	67
11:30 PMCLOSE UC San Diego @ Loyola Marymount 9-1 vs 7-3 UC San Diego 46.9% Loyola Marymount 53.1% Model Pick Loyola Marymount 53.1% Pick Spread Loyola Marymount +2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -153 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.2% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 41.8% VEGAS JUICED 43.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UC San Diego 68 vs Loyola Marymount 74 Total 141.2 Margin +5.8 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +8.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.5 @69%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Sacred Heart (4-6) @ UMass Lowell (4-8)	UMass Lowell (57.2%) DOG	+0.0%	06:00 PM	43
06:00 PMUNDERDOG ML Sacred Heart @ UMass Lowell 4-6 vs 4-8 Sacred Heart 42.8% UMass Lowell 57.2% Model Pick UMass Lowell 57.2% Pick Spread UMass Lowell +3.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -127 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Sacred Heart 74 vs UMass Lowell 78 Total 151.7 Margin +4.3 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 153.2 @55%
Dartmouth (4-5) @ Holy Cross (5-6)	Holy Cross (55.6%) DOG	+0.0%	06:00 PM	44
06:00 PMUNDERDOG ML Dartmouth @ Holy Cross 4-5 vs 5-6 Dartmouth 44.4% Holy Cross 55.6% Model Pick Holy Cross 55.6% Pick Spread Holy Cross +1.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -122 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Dartmouth 65 vs Holy Cross 72 Total 137.2 Margin +7.6 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.5 @76%
Montana State (4-7) @ Cal Poly (5-6)	Cal Poly (55.5%) DOG	+11.7%	10:00 PM	44
10:00 PMUNDERDOG ML Montana State @ Cal Poly 4-7 vs 5-6 Montana State 44.5% Cal Poly 55.5% Model Pick Cal Poly 55.5% Pick Spread Cal Poly +3.5 Home ML +125 Away ML -132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.7% MODEL PROB 55.5% VEGAS TRUE 43.8% VEGAS JUICED 44.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Montana State 76 vs Cal Poly 80 Total 156.5 Margin +3.9 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff +7.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 159.2 @58%
UC San Diego (9-1) @ Loyola Marymount (7-3)	Loyola Marymount (53.1%) DOG	+11.2%	11:30 PM	67
11:30 PMUNDERDOG ML UC San Diego @ Loyola Marymount 9-1 vs 7-3 UC San Diego 46.9% Loyola Marymount 53.1% Model Pick Loyola Marymount 53.1% Pick Spread Loyola Marymount +2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -153 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.2% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 41.8% VEGAS JUICED 43.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UC San Diego 68 vs Loyola Marymount 74 Total 141.2 Margin +5.8 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +8.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.5 @69%

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
Mississippi Valley State vs Tarleton State	Mississippi Valley State DOG	35.2%	+900	⭐⭐⭐ +252.4%	07:00 PM
Abilene Christian @ Arizona	Abilene Christian DOG	3.8%	+5000	⭐⭐⭐ +92.3%	09:00 PM
Kansas City @ Oklahoma	Kansas City DOG	4.6%	+3500	⭐⭐⭐ +67.3%	07:00 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Montana State (4-7) @ Cal Poly (5-6)	Cal Poly (55.5%)	+11.7%	10:00 PM	44
10:00 PM+11.7% EDGE Montana State @ Cal Poly 4-7 vs 5-6 Montana State 44.5% Cal Poly 55.5% Model Pick Cal Poly 55.5% Pick Spread +3.5 Home ML +125 Away ML -132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.7% MODEL PROB 55.5% VEGAS TRUE 43.8% VEGAS JUICED 44.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Montana State 76 vs Cal Poly 80 Total 156.5 Margin +3.9 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff +7.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 159.2 @58%
UC San Diego (9-1) @ Loyola Marymount (7-3)	Loyola Marymount (53.1%)	+11.2%	11:30 PM	67
11:30 PM+11.2% EDGE UC San Diego @ Loyola Marymount 9-1 vs 7-3 UC San Diego 46.9% Loyola Marymount 53.1% Model Pick Loyola Marymount 53.1% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -153 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.2% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 41.8% VEGAS JUICED 43.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UC San Diego 68 vs Loyola Marymount 74 Total 141.2 Margin +5.8 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +8.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.5 @69%
Miami (OH) (10-0) @ Wright State (5-6)	Wright State (61.1%)	+10.2%	07:00 PM	49
07:00 PM+10.2% EDGE Miami (OH) @ Wright State 10-0 vs 5-6 Miami (OH) 38.9% Wright State 61.1% Model Pick Wright State 61.1% Pick Spread -1.0 Home ML -114 Away ML -106 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.2% MODEL PROB 61.1% VEGAS TRUE 50.9% VEGAS JUICED 53.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Miami (OH) 72 vs Wright State 79 Total 150.3 Margin +7.3 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.5 @54%
Florida State (5-5) @ Dayton (8-3)	Dayton (78.5%)	+9.6%	07:00 PM	32
07:00 PM+9.6% EDGE Florida State @ Dayton 5-5 vs 8-3 Florida State 21.5% Dayton 78.5% Model Pick Dayton 78.5% Pick Spread -7.0 Home ML -250 Away ML +210 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.6% MODEL PROB 78.5% VEGAS TRUE 68.9% VEGAS JUICED 71.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Florida State 70 vs Dayton 83 Total 152.3 Margin +13.3 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.8 @74%
Little Rock (2-8) @ Morehead State (3-7)	Morehead State (69.8%)	+8.7%	07:30 PM	30
07:30 PM+8.7% EDGE Little Rock @ Morehead State 2-8 vs 3-7 Little Rock 30.2% Morehead State 69.8% Model Pick Morehead State 69.8% Pick Spread -3.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +147 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.7% MODEL PROB 69.8% VEGAS TRUE 61.1% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Little Rock 67 vs Morehead State 78 Total 145.7 Margin +11.3 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 140.0 @67%
UT Rio Grande Valley (3-6) @ Lamar (5-4)	Lamar (67.0%)	+8.5%	07:00 PM	33
07:00 PM+8.5% EDGE UT Rio Grande Valley @ Lamar 3-6 vs 5-4 UT Rio Grande Valley 33.0% Lamar 67.0% Model Pick Lamar 67.0% Pick Spread -3.5 Home ML -155 Away ML +132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.5% MODEL PROB 67.0% VEGAS TRUE 58.5% VEGAS JUICED 60.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Rio Grande Valley 64 vs Lamar 73 Total 136.5 Margin +9.1 Spread FAV COVERS @67% Diff +5.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 138.2 @55%
Oral Roberts (5-7) @ Missouri State (4-5)	Missouri State (73.9%)	+6.1%	08:00 PM	26
08:00 PM+6.1% EDGE Oral Roberts @ Missouri State 5-7 vs 4-5 Oral Roberts 26.1% Missouri State 73.9% Model Pick Missouri State 73.9% Pick Spread -4.5 Home ML -239 Away ML +197 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.1% MODEL PROB 73.9% VEGAS TRUE 67.7% VEGAS JUICED 70.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Oral Roberts 68 vs Missouri State 80 Total 148.2 Margin +12.2 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 142.0 @68%
Howard (7-5) @ Drexel (4-6)	Drexel (76.6%)	+5.7%	11:00 AM	23
11:00 AM+5.7% EDGE Howard @ Drexel 7-5 vs 4-6 Howard 23.4% Drexel 76.6% Model Pick Drexel 76.6% Pick Spread -6.0 Home ML -280 Away ML +230 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.7% MODEL PROB 76.6% VEGAS TRUE 70.9% VEGAS JUICED 73.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Howard 69 vs Drexel 81 Total 150.0 Margin +12.8 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.0 @82%
Marist (7-2) @ Georgia Tech (6-4)	Georgia Tech (76.4%)	+5.2%	07:30 PM	34
07:30 PM+5.2% EDGE Marist @ Georgia Tech 7-2 vs 6-4 Marist 23.6% Georgia Tech 76.4% Model Pick Georgia Tech 76.4% Pick Spread -6.5 Home ML -285 Away ML +235 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.2% MODEL PROB 76.4% VEGAS TRUE 71.3% VEGAS JUICED 74.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Marist 64 vs Georgia Tech 72 Total 136.2 Margin +8.4 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +1.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 139.5 @60%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Montana State (4-7) @ Cal Poly (5-6)	Cal Poly (55.5%)	+11.7%	10:00 PM	44
10:00 PM+11.7% EDGE Montana State @ Cal Poly 4-7 vs 5-6 Montana State 44.5% Cal Poly 55.5% Model Pick Cal Poly 55.5% Pick Spread +3.5 Home ML +125 Away ML -132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.7% MODEL PROB 55.5% VEGAS TRUE 43.8% VEGAS JUICED 44.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Montana State 76 vs Cal Poly 80 Total 156.5 Margin +3.9 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff +7.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 159.2 @58%
UC San Diego (9-1) @ Loyola Marymount (7-3)	Loyola Marymount (53.1%)	+11.2%	11:30 PM	67
11:30 PM+11.2% EDGE UC San Diego @ Loyola Marymount 9-1 vs 7-3 UC San Diego 46.9% Loyola Marymount 53.1% Model Pick Loyola Marymount 53.1% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -153 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.2% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 41.8% VEGAS JUICED 43.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UC San Diego 68 vs Loyola Marymount 74 Total 141.2 Margin +5.8 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +8.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.5 @69%
Miami (OH) (10-0) @ Wright State (5-6)	Wright State (61.1%)	+10.2%	07:00 PM	49
07:00 PM+10.2% EDGE Miami (OH) @ Wright State 10-0 vs 5-6 Miami (OH) 38.9% Wright State 61.1% Model Pick Wright State 61.1% Pick Spread -1.0 Home ML -114 Away ML -106 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.2% MODEL PROB 61.1% VEGAS TRUE 50.9% VEGAS JUICED 53.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Miami (OH) 72 vs Wright State 79 Total 150.3 Margin +7.3 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.5 @54%

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Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

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