Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Friday, January 02, 2026

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
Portland (7-8) @ Saint Mary's (13-2)	Saint Mary's (96.6%)	10:00 PM	13
10:00 PM Portland @ Saint Mary's 7-8 vs 13-2 Portland 3.4% Saint Mary's 96.6% Model Pick Saint Mary's 96.6% Pick Spread Saint Mary's -21.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Portland 62 vs Saint Mary's 88 Total 149.7 Margin +25.7 Spread FAV COVERS @63% Diff +4.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 146.5 @60%
USC #24 (12-1) @ Michigan #2 (12-0)	Michigan (96.5%)	07:00 PM	54
07:00 PM USC #24 @ Michigan #2 12-1 vs 12-0 USC 3.5% Michigan 96.5% Model Pick Michigan 96.5% Pick Spread Michigan -22.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE USC 71 vs Michigan 98 Total 169.7 Margin +26.9 Spread FAV COVERS @65% Diff +4.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 173.2 @61%
Pepperdine (5-10) @ Santa Clara (11-4)	Santa Clara (96.5%)	10:00 PM	14
10:00 PM Pepperdine @ Santa Clara 5-10 vs 11-4 Pepperdine 3.5% Santa Clara 96.5% Model Pick Santa Clara 96.5% Pick Spread Santa Clara -20.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Pepperdine 64 vs Santa Clara 81 Total 145.2 Margin +17.2 Spread DOG COVERS @59% Diff -3.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.0 @67%
Seattle U (12-3) @ Gonzaga #7 (14-1)	Gonzaga (96.2%)	09:00 PM	39
09:00 PM Seattle U @ Gonzaga #7 12-3 vs 14-1 Seattle U 3.8% Gonzaga 96.2% Model Pick Gonzaga 96.2% Pick Spread Gonzaga -25.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Seattle U 72 vs Gonzaga 92 Total 163.7 Margin +20.1 Spread DOG COVERS @64% Diff -4.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 154.0 @77%
Lamar (7-6) @ McNeese (10-3)	McNeese (93.8%)	07:00 PM	16
07:00 PM Lamar @ McNeese 7-6 vs 10-3 Lamar 6.2% McNeese 93.8% Model Pick McNeese 93.8% Pick Spread McNeese -17.0 Home ML -2000 Away ML +950 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.9% MODEL PROB 93.8% VEGAS TRUE 90.9% VEGAS JUICED 95.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Lamar 63 vs McNeese 78 Total 140.8 Margin +14.8 Spread DOG COVERS @56% Diff -1.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 144.2 @60%
West Virginia (9-4) @ Iowa State #3 (13-0)	Iowa State (93.1%)	09:00 PM	47
09:00 PM West Virginia @ Iowa State #3 9-4 vs 13-0 West Virginia 6.9% Iowa State 93.1% Model Pick Iowa State 93.1% Pick Spread Iowa State -17.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE West Virginia 60 vs Iowa State 74 Total 134.6 Margin +13.6 Spread DOG COVERS @60% Diff -3.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.8 @73%
San Diego (6-8) @ San Francisco (9-6)	San Francisco (86.8%)	10:00 PM	13
10:00 PM +4.1% EDGE San Diego @ San Francisco 6-8 vs 9-6 San Diego 13.2% San Francisco 86.8% Model Pick San Francisco 86.8% Pick Spread San Francisco -11.5 Home ML -650 Away ML +450 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.1% MODEL PROB 86.8% VEGAS TRUE 82.7% VEGAS JUICED 86.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE San Diego 67 vs San Francisco 84 Total 150.6 Margin +17.4 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +5.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.0 @51%
Ohio State (9-3) @ Rutgers (7-6)	Ohio State (83.4%)	08:00 PM	27
08:00 PM +5.4% EDGE Ohio State @ Rutgers 9-3 vs 7-6 Ohio State 83.4% Rutgers 16.6% Model Pick Ohio State 83.4% Pick Spread Ohio State -9.0 Home ML +335 Away ML -450 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.4% MODEL PROB 83.4% VEGAS TRUE 78.1% VEGAS JUICED 81.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Ohio State 74 vs Rutgers 70 Total 143.3 Margin -3.7 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff -5.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 152.2 @75%
Louisville #16 (11-2) @ Stanford (11-3)	Louisville (81.1%)	08:00 PM	54
08:00 PM +4.1% EDGE Louisville #16 @ Stanford 11-2 vs 11-3 Louisville 81.1% Stanford 18.9% Model Pick Louisville 81.1% Pick Spread Louisville -8.5 Home ML +315 Away ML -420 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.1% MODEL PROB 81.1% VEGAS TRUE 77.0% VEGAS JUICED 80.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Louisville 71 vs Stanford 69 Total 139.7 Margin -1.7 Spread DOG COVERS @70% Diff -6.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 157.5 @91%
Quinnipiac (10-4) @ Manhattan (6-8)	Quinnipiac (79.2%)	07:00 PM	31
07:00 PM +8.8% EDGE Quinnipiac @ Manhattan 10-4 vs 6-8 Quinnipiac 79.2% Manhattan 20.8% Model Pick Quinnipiac 79.2% Pick Spread Quinnipiac -6.5 Home ML +225 Away ML -275 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.8% MODEL PROB 79.2% VEGAS TRUE 70.4% VEGAS JUICED 73.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Quinnipiac 76 vs Manhattan 75 Total 151.0 Margin -1.0 Spread DOG COVERS @66% Diff -5.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 157.0 @68%
Fairfield (8-6) @ Canisius (5-8)	Fairfield (74.7%)	04:00 PM	25
04:00 PM +10.3% EDGE Fairfield @ Canisius 8-6 vs 5-8 Fairfield 74.7% Canisius 25.3% Model Pick Fairfield 74.7% Pick Spread Fairfield -7.0 Home ML +169 Away ML -205 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.3% MODEL PROB 74.7% VEGAS TRUE 64.4% VEGAS JUICED 67.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fairfield 70 vs Canisius 68 Total 138.1 Margin -1.7 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff -5.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 140.5 @57%
Kennesaw State (8-4) @ Liberty (9-3)	Liberty (71.4%)	07:00 PM	49
07:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Kennesaw State @ Liberty 8-4 vs 9-3 Kennesaw State 28.6% Liberty 71.4% Model Pick Liberty 71.4% Pick Spread Liberty -7.5 Home ML -430 Away ML +320 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -5.9% MODEL PROB 71.4% VEGAS TRUE 77.3% VEGAS JUICED 81.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Kennesaw State 66 vs Liberty 80 Total 146.5 Margin +13.9 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 156.0 @77%
Le Moyne (5-8) @ St. Francis (PA) (2-11)	Le Moyne (68.8%)	07:00 PM	31
07:00 PM Le Moyne @ St. Francis (PA) 5-8 vs 2-11 Le Moyne 68.8% St. Francis (PA) 31.2% Model Pick Le Moyne 68.8% Pick Spread Le Moyne -5.5 Home ML +220 Away ML -270 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.2% MODEL PROB 68.8% VEGAS TRUE 70.0% VEGAS JUICED 73.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Le Moyne 77 vs St. Francis (PA) 72 Total 149.4 Margin -5.4 Spread DOG COVERS @50% Diff -0.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.5 @56%
Fairleigh Dickinson (3-10) @ Mercyhurst (5-8)	Mercyhurst (67.8%)	07:30 PM	32
07:30 PM Fairleigh Dickinson @ Mercyhurst 3-10 vs 5-8 Fairleigh Dickinson 32.2% Mercyhurst 67.8% Model Pick Mercyhurst 67.8% Pick Spread Mercyhurst -6.0 Home ML -310 Away ML +255 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -5.1% MODEL PROB 67.8% VEGAS TRUE 72.9% VEGAS JUICED 75.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fairleigh Dickinson 58 vs Mercyhurst 63 Total 121.1 Margin +5.7 Spread DOG COVERS @50% Diff -0.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 133.0 @82%
Oregon State (8-7) @ Pacific (9-6)	Pacific (63.9%)	10:00 PM	36
10:00 PM Oregon State @ Pacific 8-7 vs 9-6 Oregon State 36.1% Pacific 63.9% Model Pick Pacific 63.9% Pick Spread Pacific -4.0 Home ML -175 Away ML +150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.5% MODEL PROB 63.9% VEGAS TRUE 61.4% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Oregon State 65 vs Pacific 75 Total 139.7 Margin +9.5 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.2 @57%
Notre Dame (10-4) @ California (12-2)	California (61.7%)	11:00 PM	58
11:00 PM Notre Dame @ California 10-4 vs 12-2 Notre Dame 38.3% California 61.7% Model Pick California 61.7% Pick Spread California -4.5 Home ML -180 Away ML +155 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.4% MODEL PROB 61.7% VEGAS TRUE 62.1% VEGAS JUICED 64.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Notre Dame 65 vs California 66 Total 130.7 Margin +1.3 Spread DOG COVERS @60% Diff -3.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 137.8 @71%
Sacred Heart (5-9) @ Niagara (3-9)	Sacred Heart (61.5%)	04:00 PM	38
04:00 PM CLOSE Sacred Heart @ Niagara 5-9 vs 3-9 Sacred Heart 61.5% Niagara 38.5% Model Pick Sacred Heart 61.5% Pick Spread Sacred Heart -2.0 Home ML +147 Away ML -175 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.4% MODEL PROB 61.5% VEGAS TRUE 61.2% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Sacred Heart 73 vs Niagara 67 Total 140.4 Margin -6.4 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 140.5 @50%
New Mexico State (8-4) @ Florida International (8-5)	Florida International (61.1%) DOG	12:00 PM	59
12:00 PM CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT New Mexico State @ Florida International 8-4 vs 8-5 New Mexico State 38.9% Florida International 61.1% Model Pick Florida International 61.1% Pick Spread Florida International +1.0 Home ML -115 Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Mexico State 71 vs Florida International 78 Total 148.7 Margin +7.3 Spread DOG COVERS @74% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 155.5 @70%
Robert Morris (10-5) @ Detroit Mercy (6-7)	Robert Morris (60.7%)	07:00 PM	39
07:00 PM +5.4% EDGECLOSE Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy 10-5 vs 6-7 Robert Morris 60.7% Detroit Mercy 39.3% Model Pick Robert Morris 60.7% Pick Spread Robert Morris -3.0 Home ML +115 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.4% MODEL PROB 60.7% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Robert Morris 76 vs Detroit Mercy 73 Total 148.5 Margin -2.7 Spread DOG COVERS @50% Diff -0.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.2 @51%
Jacksonville State (6-6) @ Delaware (4-8)	Jacksonville State (60.6%)	07:00 PM	39
07:00 PM +3.5% EDGECLOSE Jacksonville State @ Delaware 6-6 vs 4-8 Jacksonville State 60.6% Delaware 39.4% Model Pick Jacksonville State 60.6% Pick Spread Jacksonville State -2.5 Home ML +125 Away ML -145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.5% MODEL PROB 60.6% VEGAS TRUE 57.1% VEGAS JUICED 59.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Jacksonville State 62 vs Delaware 63 Total 125.4 Margin +0.6 Spread DOG COVERS @59% Diff +3.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 126.8 @54%
Louisiana Tech (8-4) @ Middle Tennessee (7-5)	Middle Tennessee (60.0%)	07:30 PM	40
07:30 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee 8-4 vs 7-5 Louisiana Tech 40.0% Middle Tennessee 60.0% Model Pick Middle Tennessee 60.0% Pick Spread Middle Tennessee -6.5 Home ML -245 Away ML +205 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -8.4% MODEL PROB 60.0% VEGAS TRUE 68.4% VEGAS JUICED 71.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Louisiana Tech 62 vs Middle Tennessee 65 Total 127.4 Margin +3.0 Spread DOG COVERS @61% Diff -3.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 135.2 @73%
Mount St. Mary's (5-9) @ Merrimack (7-7)	Merrimack (59.7%)	03:00 PM	40
03:00 PM CLOSE Mount St. Mary's @ Merrimack 5-9 vs 7-7 Mount St. Mary's 40.3% Merrimack 59.7% Model Pick Merrimack 59.7% Pick Spread Merrimack -3.5 Home ML -177 Away ML +150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.8% MODEL PROB 59.7% VEGAS TRUE 61.5% VEGAS JUICED 64.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Mount St. Mary's 58 vs Merrimack 71 Total 129.4 Margin +12.6 Spread FAV COVERS @76% Diff +9.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 141.2 @82%
Sam Houston (8-4) @ Western Kentucky (7-5)	Western Kentucky (59.0%)	05:00 PM	41
05:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Sam Houston @ Western Kentucky 8-4 vs 7-5 Sam Houston 41.0% Western Kentucky 59.0% Model Pick Western Kentucky 59.0% Pick Spread Western Kentucky -5.0 Home ML -180 Away ML +152 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.9% MODEL PROB 59.0% VEGAS TRUE 61.8% VEGAS JUICED 64.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Sam Houston 73 vs Western Kentucky 80 Total 152.5 Margin +6.7 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +1.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 165.8 @85%
Oregon (7-6) @ Maryland (7-6)	Oregon (58.2%)	07:30 PM	42
07:30 PM CLOSE Oregon @ Maryland 7-6 vs 7-6 Oregon 58.2% Maryland 41.8% Model Pick Oregon 58.2% Pick Spread Oregon -3.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -141 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.9% MODEL PROB 58.2% VEGAS TRUE 56.3% VEGAS JUICED 58.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Oregon 77 vs Maryland 70 Total 147.1 Margin -6.5 Spread FAV COVERS @61% Diff +3.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 149.2 @57%
UTEP (4-8) @ Missouri State (7-5)	Missouri State (58.0%)	08:00 PM	42
08:00 PM CLOSE UTEP @ Missouri State 4-8 vs 7-5 UTEP 42.0% Missouri State 58.0% Model Pick Missouri State 58.0% Pick Spread Missouri State -3.5 Home ML -160 Away ML +135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.1% MODEL PROB 58.0% VEGAS TRUE 59.1% VEGAS JUICED 61.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UTEP 60 vs Missouri State 73 Total 132.5 Margin +13.3 Spread FAV COVERS @77% Diff +9.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 131.5 @53%
Central Connecticut (6-5) @ Long Island University (6-7)	Long Island University (57.9%)	07:00 PM	42
07:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Central Connecticut @ Long Island University 6-5 vs 6-7 Central Connecticut 42.1% Long Island University 57.9% Model Pick Long Island University 57.9% Pick Spread Long Island University -6.0 Home ML -188 Away ML +160 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -5.1% MODEL PROB 57.9% VEGAS TRUE 62.9% VEGAS JUICED 65.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Central Connecticut 63 vs Long Island University 71 Total 133.8 Margin +7.6 Spread FAV COVERS @54% Diff +1.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 145.0 @81%
Wagner (5-6) @ Chicago State (1-11)	Wagner (54.8%)	07:00 PM	45
07:00 PM +4.3% EDGECLOSE Wagner @ Chicago State 5-6 vs 1-11 Wagner 54.8% Chicago State 45.2% Model Pick Wagner 54.8% Pick Spread Wagner -1.0 Home ML -107 Away ML -112 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.3% MODEL PROB 54.8% VEGAS TRUE 50.5% VEGAS JUICED 52.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Wagner 66 vs Chicago State 72 Total 137.8 Margin +6.4 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff +7.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 145.2 @72%
Loyola Marymount (10-5) @ Washington State (6-9)	Washington State (54.7%)	09:30 PM	45
09:30 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Loyola Marymount @ Washington State 10-5 vs 6-9 Loyola Marymount 45.3% Washington State 54.7% Model Pick Washington State 54.7% Pick Spread Washington State -3.0 Home ML -125 Away ML +105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.5% MODEL PROB 54.7% VEGAS TRUE 53.2% VEGAS JUICED 55.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Loyola Marymount 64 vs Washington State 73 Total 136.8 Margin +9.2 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.8 @68%
Michigan State #9 (12-1) @ Nebraska #13 (13-0)	Nebraska (54.6%)	09:00 PM	95
09:00 PM CLOSE Michigan State #9 @ Nebraska #13 12-1 vs 13-0 Michigan State 45.4% Nebraska 54.6% Model Pick Nebraska 54.6% Pick Spread Nebraska -2.0 Home ML -125 Away ML +105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.3% MODEL PROB 54.6% VEGAS TRUE 53.2% VEGAS JUICED 55.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Michigan State 69 vs Nebraska 76 Total 144.9 Margin +6.7 Spread FAV COVERS @63% Diff +4.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.5 @51%
Marist (8-4) @ Saint Peter's (6-5)	Marist (53.3%)	07:00 PM	47
07:00 PM CLOSE Marist @ Saint Peter's 8-4 vs 6-5 Marist 53.3% Saint Peter's 46.7% Model Pick Marist 53.3% Pick Spread Marist -2.0 Home ML +115 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.9% MODEL PROB 53.3% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Marist 64 vs Saint Peter's 58 Total 121.6 Margin -6.4 Spread FAV COVERS @63% Diff +4.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 130.5 @75%
Siena (9-4) @ Iona (9-5)	Iona (52.6%)	07:00 PM	67
07:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Siena @ Iona 9-4 vs 9-5 Siena 47.4% Iona 52.6% Model Pick Iona 52.6% Pick Spread Iona +0.0 Home ML -117 Away ML -105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.2% MODEL PROB 52.6% VEGAS TRUE 51.3% VEGAS JUICED 54.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Siena 66 vs Iona 71 Total 137.1 Margin +4.9 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.8 @81%
New Haven (5-8) @ Stonehill (3-10)	Stonehill (51.8%)	07:00 PM	48
07:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT New Haven @ Stonehill 5-8 vs 3-10 New Haven 48.2% Stonehill 51.8% Model Pick Stonehill 51.8% Pick Spread Stonehill -1.5 Home ML -146 Away ML +125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -5.4% MODEL PROB 51.8% VEGAS TRUE 57.2% VEGAS JUICED 59.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Haven 59 vs Stonehill 67 Total 126.2 Margin +8.6 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 128.8 @58%

RECOMMENDED PICKS CRITERIA

Edge ≥ 4.0 pts • Spread ≤ 12 pts • Confidence ≥ 65%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Fairfield (8-6) @ Canisius (5-8)	Fairfield (74.7%) DOG	04:00 PM	25
04:00 PM+10.3% EDGE Fairfield @ Canisius 8-6 vs 5-8 Fairfield 74.7% Canisius 25.3% Model Pick Fairfield 74.7% Pick Spread +7.0 Home ML +169 Away ML -205 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.3% MODEL PROB 74.7% VEGAS TRUE 64.4% VEGAS JUICED 67.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fairfield 70 vs Canisius 68 Total 138.1 Margin -1.7 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff -5.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 140.5 @57%
Quinnipiac (10-4) @ Manhattan (6-8)	Quinnipiac (79.2%) DOG	07:00 PM	31
07:00 PM+8.8% EDGE Quinnipiac @ Manhattan 10-4 vs 6-8 Quinnipiac 79.2% Manhattan 20.8% Model Pick Quinnipiac 79.2% Pick Spread +6.5 Home ML +225 Away ML -275 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.8% MODEL PROB 79.2% VEGAS TRUE 70.4% VEGAS JUICED 73.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Quinnipiac 76 vs Manhattan 75 Total 151.0 Margin -1.0 Spread DOG COVERS @66% Diff -5.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 157.0 @68%
Robert Morris (10-5) @ Detroit Mercy (6-7)	Robert Morris (60.7%) DOG	07:00 PM	39
07:00 PM+5.4% EDGE Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy 10-5 vs 6-7 Robert Morris 60.7% Detroit Mercy 39.3% Model Pick Robert Morris 60.7% Pick Spread +3.0 Home ML +115 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.4% MODEL PROB 60.7% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Robert Morris 76 vs Detroit Mercy 73 Total 148.5 Margin -2.7 Spread DOG COVERS @50% Diff -0.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.2 @51%
Ohio State (9-3) @ Rutgers (7-6)	Ohio State (83.4%) DOG	08:00 PM	27
08:00 PM+5.4% EDGE Ohio State @ Rutgers 9-3 vs 7-6 Ohio State 83.4% Rutgers 16.6% Model Pick Ohio State 83.4% Pick Spread +9.0 Home ML +335 Away ML -450 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.4% MODEL PROB 83.4% VEGAS TRUE 78.1% VEGAS JUICED 81.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Ohio State 74 vs Rutgers 70 Total 143.3 Margin -3.7 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff -5.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 152.2 @75%
Wagner (5-6) @ Chicago State (1-11)	Wagner (54.8%) DOG	07:00 PM	45
07:00 PM+4.3% EDGE Wagner @ Chicago State 5-6 vs 1-11 Wagner 54.8% Chicago State 45.2% Model Pick Wagner 54.8% Pick Spread +1.0 Home ML -107 Away ML -112 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.3% MODEL PROB 54.8% VEGAS TRUE 50.5% VEGAS JUICED 52.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Wagner 66 vs Chicago State 72 Total 137.8 Margin +6.4 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff +7.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 145.2 @72%
San Diego (6-8) @ San Francisco (9-6)	San Francisco (86.8%)	10:00 PM	13
10:00 PM+4.1% EDGE San Diego @ San Francisco 6-8 vs 9-6 San Diego 13.2% San Francisco 86.8% Model Pick San Francisco 86.8% Pick Spread -11.5 Home ML -650 Away ML +450 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.1% MODEL PROB 86.8% VEGAS TRUE 82.7% VEGAS JUICED 86.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE San Diego 67 vs San Francisco 84 Total 150.6 Margin +17.4 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +5.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.0 @51%
Louisville #16 (11-2) @ Stanford (11-3)	Louisville (81.1%) DOG	08:00 PM	54
08:00 PM+4.1% EDGE Louisville #16 @ Stanford 11-2 vs 11-3 Louisville 81.1% Stanford 18.9% Model Pick Louisville 81.1% Pick Spread +8.5 Home ML +315 Away ML -420 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.1% MODEL PROB 81.1% VEGAS TRUE 77.0% VEGAS JUICED 80.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Louisville 71 vs Stanford 69 Total 139.7 Margin -1.7 Spread DOG COVERS @70% Diff -6.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 157.5 @91%
Jacksonville State (6-6) @ Delaware (4-8)	Jacksonville State (60.6%) DOG	07:00 PM	39
07:00 PM+3.5% EDGE Jacksonville State @ Delaware 6-6 vs 4-8 Jacksonville State 60.6% Delaware 39.4% Model Pick Jacksonville State 60.6% Pick Spread +2.5 Home ML +125 Away ML -145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.5% MODEL PROB 60.6% VEGAS TRUE 57.1% VEGAS JUICED 59.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Jacksonville State 62 vs Delaware 63 Total 125.4 Margin +0.6 Spread DOG COVERS @59% Diff +3.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 126.8 @54%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Sacred Heart (5-9) @ Niagara (3-9)	Sacred Heart (61.5%)	04:00 PM	38
04:00 PMCLOSE Sacred Heart @ Niagara 5-9 vs 3-9 Sacred Heart 61.5% Niagara 38.5% Model Pick Sacred Heart 61.5% Pick Spread Sacred Heart -2.0 Home ML +147 Away ML -175 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.4% MODEL PROB 61.5% VEGAS TRUE 61.2% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Sacred Heart 73 vs Niagara 67 Total 140.4 Margin -6.4 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 140.5 @50%
New Mexico State (8-4) @ Florida International (8-5)	Florida International (61.1%) DOG	12:00 PM	59
12:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT New Mexico State @ Florida International 8-4 vs 8-5 New Mexico State 38.9% Florida International 61.1% Model Pick Florida International 61.1% Pick Spread Florida International +1.0 Home ML -115 Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Mexico State 71 vs Florida International 78 Total 148.7 Margin +7.3 Spread DOG COVERS @74% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 155.5 @70%
Robert Morris (10-5) @ Detroit Mercy (6-7)	Robert Morris (60.7%)	07:00 PM	39
07:00 PMCLOSE Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy 10-5 vs 6-7 Robert Morris 60.7% Detroit Mercy 39.3% Model Pick Robert Morris 60.7% Pick Spread Robert Morris -3.0 Home ML +115 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.4% MODEL PROB 60.7% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Robert Morris 76 vs Detroit Mercy 73 Total 148.5 Margin -2.7 Spread DOG COVERS @50% Diff -0.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.2 @51%
Jacksonville State (6-6) @ Delaware (4-8)	Jacksonville State (60.6%)	07:00 PM	39
07:00 PMCLOSE Jacksonville State @ Delaware 6-6 vs 4-8 Jacksonville State 60.6% Delaware 39.4% Model Pick Jacksonville State 60.6% Pick Spread Jacksonville State -2.5 Home ML +125 Away ML -145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.5% MODEL PROB 60.6% VEGAS TRUE 57.1% VEGAS JUICED 59.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Jacksonville State 62 vs Delaware 63 Total 125.4 Margin +0.6 Spread DOG COVERS @59% Diff +3.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 126.8 @54%
Mount St. Mary's (5-9) @ Merrimack (7-7)	Merrimack (59.7%)	03:00 PM	40
03:00 PMCLOSE Mount St. Mary's @ Merrimack 5-9 vs 7-7 Mount St. Mary's 40.3% Merrimack 59.7% Model Pick Merrimack 59.7% Pick Spread Merrimack -3.5 Home ML -177 Away ML +150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.8% MODEL PROB 59.7% VEGAS TRUE 61.5% VEGAS JUICED 64.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Mount St. Mary's 58 vs Merrimack 71 Total 129.4 Margin +12.6 Spread FAV COVERS @76% Diff +9.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 141.2 @82%
Oregon (7-6) @ Maryland (7-6)	Oregon (58.2%)	07:30 PM	42
07:30 PMCLOSE Oregon @ Maryland 7-6 vs 7-6 Oregon 58.2% Maryland 41.8% Model Pick Oregon 58.2% Pick Spread Oregon -3.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -141 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.9% MODEL PROB 58.2% VEGAS TRUE 56.3% VEGAS JUICED 58.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Oregon 77 vs Maryland 70 Total 147.1 Margin -6.5 Spread FAV COVERS @61% Diff +3.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 149.2 @57%
UTEP (4-8) @ Missouri State (7-5)	Missouri State (58.0%)	08:00 PM	42
08:00 PMCLOSE UTEP @ Missouri State 4-8 vs 7-5 UTEP 42.0% Missouri State 58.0% Model Pick Missouri State 58.0% Pick Spread Missouri State -3.5 Home ML -160 Away ML +135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.1% MODEL PROB 58.0% VEGAS TRUE 59.1% VEGAS JUICED 61.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UTEP 60 vs Missouri State 73 Total 132.5 Margin +13.3 Spread FAV COVERS @77% Diff +9.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 131.5 @53%
Wagner (5-6) @ Chicago State (1-11)	Wagner (54.8%)	07:00 PM	45
07:00 PMCLOSE Wagner @ Chicago State 5-6 vs 1-11 Wagner 54.8% Chicago State 45.2% Model Pick Wagner 54.8% Pick Spread Wagner -1.0 Home ML -107 Away ML -112 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.3% MODEL PROB 54.8% VEGAS TRUE 50.5% VEGAS JUICED 52.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Wagner 66 vs Chicago State 72 Total 137.8 Margin +6.4 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff +7.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 145.2 @72%
Loyola Marymount (10-5) @ Washington State (6-9)	Washington State (54.7%)	09:30 PM	45
09:30 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Loyola Marymount @ Washington State 10-5 vs 6-9 Loyola Marymount 45.3% Washington State 54.7% Model Pick Washington State 54.7% Pick Spread Washington State -3.0 Home ML -125 Away ML +105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.5% MODEL PROB 54.7% VEGAS TRUE 53.2% VEGAS JUICED 55.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Loyola Marymount 64 vs Washington State 73 Total 136.8 Margin +9.2 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.8 @68%
Michigan State #9 (12-1) @ Nebraska #13 (13-0)	Nebraska (54.6%)	09:00 PM	95
09:00 PMCLOSE Michigan State #9 @ Nebraska #13 12-1 vs 13-0 Michigan State 45.4% Nebraska 54.6% Model Pick Nebraska 54.6% Pick Spread Nebraska -2.0 Home ML -125 Away ML +105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.3% MODEL PROB 54.6% VEGAS TRUE 53.2% VEGAS JUICED 55.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Michigan State 69 vs Nebraska 76 Total 144.9 Margin +6.7 Spread FAV COVERS @63% Diff +4.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.5 @51%
Marist (8-4) @ Saint Peter's (6-5)	Marist (53.3%)	07:00 PM	47
07:00 PMCLOSE Marist @ Saint Peter's 8-4 vs 6-5 Marist 53.3% Saint Peter's 46.7% Model Pick Marist 53.3% Pick Spread Marist -2.0 Home ML +115 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.9% MODEL PROB 53.3% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Marist 64 vs Saint Peter's 58 Total 121.6 Margin -6.4 Spread FAV COVERS @63% Diff +4.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 130.5 @75%
Siena (9-4) @ Iona (9-5)	Iona (52.6%)	07:00 PM	67
07:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Siena @ Iona 9-4 vs 9-5 Siena 47.4% Iona 52.6% Model Pick Iona 52.6% Pick Spread Iona +0.0 Home ML -117 Away ML -105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.2% MODEL PROB 52.6% VEGAS TRUE 51.3% VEGAS JUICED 54.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Siena 66 vs Iona 71 Total 137.1 Margin +4.9 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.8 @81%
New Haven (5-8) @ Stonehill (3-10)	Stonehill (51.8%)	07:00 PM	48
07:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT New Haven @ Stonehill 5-8 vs 3-10 New Haven 48.2% Stonehill 51.8% Model Pick Stonehill 51.8% Pick Spread Stonehill -1.5 Home ML -146 Away ML +125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -5.4% MODEL PROB 51.8% VEGAS TRUE 57.2% VEGAS JUICED 59.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Haven 59 vs Stonehill 67 Total 126.2 Margin +8.6 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 128.8 @58%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee	Louisiana Tech DOG	40.0%	+205	⭐⭐⭐ +22.1%	07:30 PM
Kennesaw State @ Liberty	Kennesaw State DOG	28.6%	+320	⭐⭐ +20.0%	07:00 PM
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Mercyhurst	Fairleigh Dickinson DOG	32.2%	+255	⭐⭐ +14.5%	07:30 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Fairfield (8-6) @ Canisius (5-8)	Fairfield (74.7%)	+10.3%	04:00 PM	25
04:00 PM+10.3% EDGE Fairfield @ Canisius 8-6 vs 5-8 Fairfield 74.7% Canisius 25.3% Model Pick Fairfield 74.7% Pick Spread +7.0 Home ML +169 Away ML -205 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.3% MODEL PROB 74.7% VEGAS TRUE 64.4% VEGAS JUICED 67.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fairfield 70 vs Canisius 68 Total 138.1 Margin -1.7 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff -5.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 140.5 @57%
Quinnipiac (10-4) @ Manhattan (6-8)	Quinnipiac (79.2%)	+8.8%	07:00 PM	31
07:00 PM+8.8% EDGE Quinnipiac @ Manhattan 10-4 vs 6-8 Quinnipiac 79.2% Manhattan 20.8% Model Pick Quinnipiac 79.2% Pick Spread +6.5 Home ML +225 Away ML -275 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.8% MODEL PROB 79.2% VEGAS TRUE 70.4% VEGAS JUICED 73.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Quinnipiac 76 vs Manhattan 75 Total 151.0 Margin -1.0 Spread DOG COVERS @66% Diff -5.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 157.0 @68%
Robert Morris (10-5) @ Detroit Mercy (6-7)	Robert Morris (60.7%)	+5.4%	07:00 PM	39
07:00 PM+5.4% EDGE Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy 10-5 vs 6-7 Robert Morris 60.7% Detroit Mercy 39.3% Model Pick Robert Morris 60.7% Pick Spread +3.0 Home ML +115 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.4% MODEL PROB 60.7% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Robert Morris 76 vs Detroit Mercy 73 Total 148.5 Margin -2.7 Spread DOG COVERS @50% Diff -0.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.2 @51%
Ohio State (9-3) @ Rutgers (7-6)	Ohio State (83.4%)	+5.4%	08:00 PM	27
08:00 PM+5.4% EDGE Ohio State @ Rutgers 9-3 vs 7-6 Ohio State 83.4% Rutgers 16.6% Model Pick Ohio State 83.4% Pick Spread +9.0 Home ML +335 Away ML -450 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.4% MODEL PROB 83.4% VEGAS TRUE 78.1% VEGAS JUICED 81.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Ohio State 74 vs Rutgers 70 Total 143.3 Margin -3.7 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff -5.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 152.2 @75%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Fairfield (8-6) @ Canisius (5-8)	Fairfield (74.7%)	+10.3%	04:00 PM	25
04:00 PM+10.3% EDGE Fairfield @ Canisius 8-6 vs 5-8 Fairfield 74.7% Canisius 25.3% Model Pick Fairfield 74.7% Pick Spread +7.0 Home ML +169 Away ML -205 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.3% MODEL PROB 74.7% VEGAS TRUE 64.4% VEGAS JUICED 67.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fairfield 70 vs Canisius 68 Total 138.1 Margin -1.7 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff -5.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 140.5 @57%

Model Information

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Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

XGBoost Win/Loss Model