Daily win/loss predictions and value edges vs closing lines
Calibrated XGBoost | 2022-2026 (Transfer Portal Era)
LIVE
Today
JAN 03
Total Games
120
Model
XGBoost
Features
144
Training Set
25,500+
Season
2025-26

Model Information

  • XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
  • XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
  • Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
  • Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
  • Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
  • Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
San José State (5-8) @ Utah State (11-1) Utah State (96.9%) 04:00 PM 13
Gardner-Webb (2-14) @ Winthrop (8-8) Winthrop (96.4%) 04:00 PM 4
North Florida (2-12) @ Lipscomb (8-6) Lipscomb (94.9%) 05:00 PM 5
Northern Illinois (5-8) @ Kent State (10-3) Kent State (93.3%) 01:00 PM 17
La Salle (4-10) @ George Washington (10-4) George Washington (93.2%) 02:00 PM 17
Longwood (9-7) @ High Point (13-3) High Point (93.1%) 02:00 PM 17
Oral Roberts (5-11) @ North Dakota State (11-5) North Dakota State (91.8%) 04:00 PM 8
Air Force (3-10) @ UNLV (6-6) UNLV (91.0%) 05:00 PM 9
Western Illinois (4-10) @ Southeast Missouri State (7-7) Southeast Missouri State (90.5%) 04:45 PM 10
Hampton (8-7) @ UNC Wilmington (13-2) UNC Wilmington (89.0%) 07:00 PM 21
Providence (7-6) @ St. John's (9-4) St. John's (88.7%) 12:00 PM 11
Southern Indiana (3-10) @ Lindenwood (9-5) Lindenwood (88.3%) 04:30 PM 12
UTSA (4-9) @ Temple (9-5) Temple (86.8%) 12:00 PM 13
Eastern Illinois (4-9) @ UT Martin (10-4) UT Martin (86.7%) 04:30 PM 23
Western Carolina (4-8) @ Furman (10-4) Furman (85.9%) 04:00 PM 24
Oklahoma State (12-1) @ Texas Tech #15 (10-3) Texas Tech (85.8%) 01:00 PM 49
Stetson (5-9) @ Central Arkansas (6-8) Central Arkansas (85.3%) 02:00 PM 15
Kansas City (3-12) @ Omaha (7-9) Omaha (84.7%) 08:00 PM 15
Mississippi State (8-5) @ Texas (9-4) Texas (84.6%) 06:00 PM 35
Alabama State (3-10) @ Mississippi Valley State (1-13) Alabama State (84.5%) 06:00 PM 16
Northern Arizona (6-8) @ Montana State (7-7) Montana State (84.4%) 08:00 PM 16
Wofford (9-5) @ The Citadel (3-11) Wofford (84.3%) 01:00 PM 16
Dayton (10-4) @ Loyola Chicago (5-9) Dayton (84.2%) 02:00 PM 26
Jacksonville (5-9) @ Austin Peay (7-5) Austin Peay (83.9%) 04:00 PM 16
Duke #6 (12-1) @ Florida State (7-7) Duke (83.3%) 03:45 PM 42
Illinois #20 (10-3) @ Penn State (9-4) Illinois (83.3%) 07:00 PM 52
Coppin State (2-15) @ Delaware State (5-10) Delaware State (83.1%) 04:00 PM 17
Cal State Bakersfield (6-9) @ UC Davis (8-5) UC Davis (82.6%) 05:00 PM 17
James Madison (7-7) @ Arkansas State (10-4) Arkansas State (82.6%) 03:00 PM 27
Utah Valley (12-3) @ Abilene Christian (8-6) Utah Valley (82.0%) 04:00 PM 28
Arizona #1 (13-0) @ Utah (8-5) Arizona (81.7%) 04:00 PM 58
Vanderbilt #11 (13-0) @ South Carolina (9-4) Vanderbilt (81.6%) 02:00 PM 53
BYU #10 (12-1) @ Kansas State (9-4) BYU (81.6%) 01:30 PM 53
Eastern Washington (2-11) @ Idaho (8-5) Idaho (81.3%) 05:00 PM 19
Hofstra (10-4) @ Drexel (6-9) Hofstra (80.7%) 02:00 PM 29
Howard (9-6) @ South Carolina State (1-14) Howard (80.3%) 04:00 PM 20
Texas State (8-7) @ UL Monroe (3-12) Texas State (80.2%) 03:30 PM 20
Sacramento State (4-9) @ Weber State (6-8) Weber State (79.2%) 09:00 PM 21
Houston Christian (5-8) @ Incarnate Word (7-6) Incarnate Word (79.0%) 05:00 PM 21
UNC Asheville (6-9) @ Charleston Southern (10-6) Charleston Southern (78.9%) 02:00 PM 21
Ball State (4-9) @ Buffalo (12-2) Buffalo (78.4%) 02:00 PM 32
Toledo (7-6) @ Central Michigan (4-10) Toledo (78.4%) 03:00 PM 22
Vermont (8-7) @ New Hampshire (4-9) Vermont (78.3%) 01:00 PM 22
Wyoming (10-3) @ New Mexico (10-3) New Mexico (78.0%) 08:00 PM 42
App State (9-6) @ Marshall (9-5) Marshall (77.7%) 04:00 PM 22
UT Arlington (9-5) @ Southern Utah (4-10) UT Arlington (77.5%) 08:30 PM 22
Monmouth (6-8) @ Towson (8-7) Towson (77.2%) 06:00 PM 23
Houston #8 (12-1) @ Cincinnati (8-5) Houston (76.7%) 02:00 PM 58
Texas Southern (2-9) @ Southern (4-9) Southern (75.6%) 06:00 PM 24
Rhode Island (9-5) @ George Mason (13-1) George Mason (75.4%) 04:00 PM 45
South Alabama (11-4) @ Troy (9-5) Troy (75.2%) 04:30 PM 45
Wichita State (9-5) @ Charlotte (6-8) Wichita State (75.0%) 06:00 PM 25
Boston College (7-6) @ Georgia Tech (9-5) Georgia Tech (74.2%) 02:00 PM 26
East Texas A&M (6-8) @ Nicholls (5-8) Nicholls (74.2%) 04:00 PM 26
Georgia State (4-11) @ Coastal Carolina (8-7) Coastal Carolina (73.8%) 01:00 PM 26
Morehead State (6-8) @ SIU Edwardsville (9-5) SIU Edwardsville (73.7%) 04:30 PM 26
Auburn (9-4) @ Georgia #23 (12-1) Georgia (73.7%) 01:00 PM 61
Purdue #5 (12-1) @ Wisconsin (9-4) Purdue (73.7%) 08:00 PM 66
Nevada (10-3) @ Fresno State (6-7) Nevada (73.6%) 07:00 PM 36
Colgate (7-7) @ Army (7-7) Colgate (73.3%) 01:00 PM 27
Chattanooga (6-8) @ VMI (5-9) Chattanooga (73.1%) 01:00 PM 27
Ole Miss (8-5) @ Oklahoma (10-3) Oklahoma (72.3%) 03:30 PM 48
Alabama A&M (7-6) @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff (3-10) Alabama A&M (72.1%) 06:30 PM 28
Florida A&M (2-8) @ Bethune-Cookman (3-10) Bethune-Cookman (71.8%) 03:30 PM 28
Mercer (8-6) @ East Tennessee State (9-5) East Tennessee State (71.6%) 04:00 PM 28
South Dakota State (8-8) @ North Dakota (7-10) South Dakota State (71.3%) 02:00 PM 29
Memphis (6-7) @ Rice (6-8) Memphis (71.2%) 03:00 PM 29
Navy (9-5) @ Holy Cross (6-8) Navy (70.7%) 02:00 PM 29
UC Irvine (10-5) @ Cal State Fullerton (6-9) UC Irvine (70.0%) 07:00 PM 30
Southern Miss (8-7) @ Louisiana (3-12) Southern Miss (69.6%) 01:00 PM 30
Morgan State (3-11) @ Maryland Eastern Shore (4-13) Maryland Eastern Shore (69.6%) 04:30 PM 30
LSU (12-1) @ Texas A&M (10-3) Texas A&M (68.5%) 04:00 PM 52
Minnesota (8-5) @ Northwestern (8-5) Northwestern (68.5%) 05:00 PM 52
VCU (10-4) @ Duquesne (9-5) VCU (68.1%) 12:00 PM 52
UAlbany (4-11) @ UMass Lowell (5-10) UMass Lowell (67.0%) 02:00 PM 33
Kentucky (9-4) @ Alabama #14 (10-3) Alabama (66.0%) 12:00 PM 69
Florida #22 (9-4) @ Missouri (10-3) Florida (65.6%) 08:30 PM 69
UCLA (10-3) @ Iowa #25 (11-2) Iowa (65.0%) 06:00 PM 70
Norfolk State (6-10) @ North Carolina Central (4-11) Norfolk State (64.5%) 04:30 PM 36
Stephen F. Austin (11-2) @ SE Louisiana (4-9) Stephen F. Austin (64.5%) 04:30 PM 46
Alcorn State (1-11) @ Jackson State (1-12) Jackson State (64.4%) 04:00 PM 36
Hawai'i (11-2) @ UC San Diego (11-3) UC San Diego (64.2%) 10:00 PM 56
California Baptist (10-5) @ Tarleton State (10-5) Tarleton State (62.8%) 05:00 PM 57
Virginia Tech (12-2) @ Wake Forest (9-5) Wake Forest (62.6%) 12:00 PM 57
Boise State (9-4) @ San Diego State (8-4) San Diego State (61.7%) 10:00 PM 58
NJIT (5-10) @ Binghamton (4-11) Binghamton (61.4%) 02:00 PM 39
Virginia #21 (11-2) @ NC State (10-4) NC State (61.3%) 11:00 AM 74
Xavier (9-5) @ DePaul (8-6) DePaul (61.0%) 02:00 PM 39
Prairie View A&M (5-8) @ Grambling (6-7) Grambling (60.6%) 05:00 PM 39
Colorado State (9-4) @ Grand Canyon (8-4) Grand Canyon (60.2%) 08:00 PM 60
Northeastern (5-8) @ Campbell (7-8) Campbell (59.9%) 12:00 PM 40
Villanova (11-2) @ Butler (10-4) Butler (59.9%) 12:00 PM 60
Clemson (11-3) @ Pittsburgh (7-7) Clemson (59.0%) 12:00 PM 51
North Carolina A&T (7-6) @ Stony Brook (8-7) Stony Brook (59.0%) 04:00 PM 41
Colorado (10-3) @ Arizona State (9-4) Arizona State (58.5%) 05:00 PM 62
Bryant (4-10) @ Maine (2-13) Maine (58.0%) DOG 02:00 PM 42
Portland State (7-5) @ Idaho State (8-6) Idaho State (57.7%) 06:00 PM 42
Bellarmine (5-8) @ Queens University (6-8) Queens University (57.6%) 03:00 PM 42
Samford (8-6) @ UNC Greensboro (5-9) Samford (56.0%) 04:00 PM 44
Bowling Green (10-4) @ Massachusetts (9-5) Bowling Green (55.8%) 02:00 PM 64
Baylor (10-2) @ TCU (10-3) TCU (55.4%) 02:00 PM 65
Cal Poly (6-9) @ Long Beach State (4-10) Long Beach State (55.2%) 09:00 PM 45
Tennessee #19 (10-3) @ Arkansas #18 (10-3) Arkansas (54.9%) 03:00 PM 95
South Carolina Upstate (8-8) @ Presbyterian (7-8) Presbyterian (54.5%) 02:00 PM 46
Eastern Kentucky (4-10) @ West Georgia (7-6) Eastern Kentucky (54.5%) 02:00 PM 46
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (6-7) @ UT Rio Grande Valley (5-8) UT Rio Grande Valley (54.4%) 05:30 PM 46
Davidson (8-5) @ Saint Joseph's (8-6) Saint Joseph's (54.3%) DOG 06:00 PM 46
UC Santa Barbara (9-5) @ Cal State Northridge (8-7) Cal State Northridge (53.8%) 04:00 PM 46
Florida Gulf Coast (6-8) @ North Alabama (5-7) Florida Gulf Coast (53.3%) 03:00 PM 47
Kansas #17 (10-3) @ UCF (11-1) UCF (53.2%) DOG 02:00 PM 82
Northern Colorado (10-4) @ Montana (7-7) Montana (53.1%) DOG 06:00 PM 57
New Orleans (5-9) @ Northwestern State (3-10) Northwestern State (53.0%) DOG 04:30 PM 47
Ohio (7-7) @ Eastern Michigan (7-7) Ohio (52.9%) 02:00 PM 47
Akron (10-3) @ Miami (OH) (14-0) Miami (OH) (52.0%) DOG 03:30 PM 68
American University (8-6) @ Boston University (5-9) Boston University (51.5%) 01:00 PM 48
Lehigh (4-10) @ Bucknell (3-11) Bucknell (51.1%) 05:00 PM 49
North Carolina #12 (13-1) @ SMU (11-2) SMU (51.0%) DOG 02:15 PM 84
Tennessee State (8-5) @ Little Rock (5-9) Tennessee State (50.7%) DOG 04:00 PM 49
Georgia Southern (11-5) @ Old Dominion (4-11) Georgia Southern (50.6%) 03:30 PM 49
Lafayette (3-11) @ Loyola Maryland (4-10) Loyola Maryland (50.4%) DOG 05:00 PM 50
Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Akron (10-3) @ Miami (OH) (14-0) Miami (OH) (52.0%) DOG 03:30 PM 68
Hofstra (10-4) @ Drexel (6-9) Hofstra (80.7%) DOG 02:00 PM 29
California Baptist (10-5) @ Tarleton State (10-5) Tarleton State (62.8%) 05:00 PM 57
Eastern Washington (2-11) @ Idaho (8-5) Idaho (81.3%) 05:00 PM 19
UT Arlington (9-5) @ Southern Utah (4-10) UT Arlington (77.5%) DOG 08:30 PM 22
Sacramento State (4-9) @ Weber State (6-8) Weber State (79.2%) 09:00 PM 21
Texas State (8-7) @ UL Monroe (3-12) Texas State (80.2%) DOG 03:30 PM 20
Wichita State (9-5) @ Charlotte (6-8) Wichita State (75.0%) DOG 06:00 PM 25
Auburn (9-4) @ Georgia #23 (12-1) Georgia (73.7%) 01:00 PM 61
Dayton (10-4) @ Loyola Chicago (5-9) Dayton (84.2%) DOG 02:00 PM 26
Davidson (8-5) @ Saint Joseph's (8-6) Saint Joseph's (54.3%) DOG 06:00 PM 46
Texas Southern (2-9) @ Southern (4-9) Southern (75.6%) 06:00 PM 24
BYU #10 (12-1) @ Kansas State (9-4) BYU (81.6%) DOG 01:30 PM 53
Utah Valley (12-3) @ Abilene Christian (8-6) Utah Valley (82.0%) DOG 04:00 PM 28
Western Carolina (4-8) @ Furman (10-4) Furman (85.9%) 04:00 PM 24
James Madison (7-7) @ Arkansas State (10-4) Arkansas State (82.6%) 03:00 PM 27
Chattanooga (6-8) @ VMI (5-9) Chattanooga (73.1%) DOG 01:00 PM 27
Tennessee State (8-5) @ Little Rock (5-9) Tennessee State (50.7%) 04:00 PM 49
Eastern Illinois (4-9) @ UT Martin (10-4) UT Martin (86.7%) 04:30 PM 23
App State (9-6) @ Marshall (9-5) Marshall (77.7%) 04:00 PM 22
Stetson (5-9) @ Central Arkansas (6-8) Central Arkansas (85.3%) 02:00 PM 15
Lafayette (3-11) @ Loyola Maryland (4-10) Loyola Maryland (50.4%) DOG 05:00 PM 50
Houston Christian (5-8) @ Incarnate Word (7-6) Incarnate Word (79.0%) 05:00 PM 21
Ball State (4-9) @ Buffalo (12-2) Buffalo (78.4%) 02:00 PM 32
NJIT (5-10) @ Binghamton (4-11) Binghamton (61.4%) 02:00 PM 39
Morehead State (6-8) @ SIU Edwardsville (9-5) SIU Edwardsville (73.7%) 04:30 PM 26
Southern Indiana (3-10) @ Lindenwood (9-5) Lindenwood (88.3%) 04:30 PM 12
UTSA (4-9) @ Temple (9-5) Temple (86.8%) 12:00 PM 13
Mississippi State (8-5) @ Texas (9-4) Texas (84.6%) 06:00 PM 35
Wyoming (10-3) @ New Mexico (10-3) New Mexico (78.0%) 08:00 PM 42
Xavier (9-5) @ DePaul (8-6) DePaul (61.0%) 02:00 PM 39
Vermont (8-7) @ New Hampshire (4-9) Vermont (78.3%) DOG 01:00 PM 22
Northern Arizona (6-8) @ Montana State (7-7) Montana State (84.4%) 08:00 PM 16
Rhode Island (9-5) @ George Mason (13-1) George Mason (75.4%) 04:00 PM 45
Oral Roberts (5-11) @ North Dakota State (11-5) North Dakota State (91.8%) 04:00 PM 8
Wofford (9-5) @ The Citadel (3-11) Wofford (84.3%) DOG 01:00 PM 16
Houston #8 (12-1) @ Cincinnati (8-5) Houston (76.7%) DOG 02:00 PM 58
Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Alabama A&M (7-6) @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff (3-10) Alabama A&M (72.1%) 06:30 PM 28
Southern Miss (8-7) @ Louisiana (3-12) Southern Miss (69.6%) 01:00 PM 30
UAlbany (4-11) @ UMass Lowell (5-10) UMass Lowell (67.0%) 02:00 PM 33
Norfolk State (6-10) @ North Carolina Central (4-11) Norfolk State (64.5%) 04:30 PM 36
Stephen F. Austin (11-2) @ SE Louisiana (4-9) Stephen F. Austin (64.5%) 04:30 PM 46
Hawai'i (11-2) @ UC San Diego (11-3) UC San Diego (64.2%) 10:00 PM 56
California Baptist (10-5) @ Tarleton State (10-5) Tarleton State (62.8%) 05:00 PM 57
NJIT (5-10) @ Binghamton (4-11) Binghamton (61.4%) 02:00 PM 39
Xavier (9-5) @ DePaul (8-6) DePaul (61.0%) 02:00 PM 39
Villanova (11-2) @ Butler (10-4) Butler (59.9%) 12:00 PM 60
Clemson (11-3) @ Pittsburgh (7-7) Clemson (59.0%) 12:00 PM 51
Colorado (10-3) @ Arizona State (9-4) Arizona State (58.5%) 05:00 PM 62
Bryant (4-10) @ Maine (2-13) Maine (58.0%) DOG 02:00 PM 42
Portland State (7-5) @ Idaho State (8-6) Idaho State (57.7%) 06:00 PM 42
Samford (8-6) @ UNC Greensboro (5-9) Samford (56.0%) 04:00 PM 44
Bowling Green (10-4) @ Massachusetts (9-5) Bowling Green (55.8%) 02:00 PM 64
Baylor (10-2) @ TCU (10-3) TCU (55.4%) 02:00 PM 65
Cal Poly (6-9) @ Long Beach State (4-10) Long Beach State (55.2%) 09:00 PM 45
Tennessee #19 (10-3) @ Arkansas #18 (10-3) Arkansas (54.9%) 03:00 PM 95
South Carolina Upstate (8-8) @ Presbyterian (7-8) Presbyterian (54.5%) 02:00 PM 46
Eastern Kentucky (4-10) @ West Georgia (7-6) Eastern Kentucky (54.5%) 02:00 PM 46
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (6-7) @ UT Rio Grande Valley (5-8) UT Rio Grande Valley (54.4%) 05:30 PM 46
Davidson (8-5) @ Saint Joseph's (8-6) Saint Joseph's (54.3%) DOG 06:00 PM 46
UC Santa Barbara (9-5) @ Cal State Northridge (8-7) Cal State Northridge (53.8%) 04:00 PM 46
Florida Gulf Coast (6-8) @ North Alabama (5-7) Florida Gulf Coast (53.3%) 03:00 PM 47
Northern Colorado (10-4) @ Montana (7-7) Montana (53.1%) DOG 06:00 PM 57
New Orleans (5-9) @ Northwestern State (3-10) Northwestern State (53.0%) DOG 04:30 PM 47
Ohio (7-7) @ Eastern Michigan (7-7) Ohio (52.9%) 02:00 PM 47
Akron (10-3) @ Miami (OH) (14-0) Miami (OH) (52.0%) DOG 03:30 PM 68
American University (8-6) @ Boston University (5-9) Boston University (51.5%) 01:00 PM 48
North Carolina #12 (13-1) @ SMU (11-2) SMU (51.0%) DOG 02:15 PM 84
Tennessee State (8-5) @ Little Rock (5-9) Tennessee State (50.7%) DOG 04:00 PM 49
Georgia Southern (11-5) @ Old Dominion (4-11) Georgia Southern (50.6%) 03:30 PM 49
Lafayette (3-11) @ Loyola Maryland (4-10) Loyola Maryland (50.4%) DOG 05:00 PM 50
Game Prediction Edge Time (ET) Hype Level
Davidson (8-5) @ Saint Joseph's (8-6) Saint Joseph's (54.3%) DOG +6.5% 06:00 PM 46
Akron (10-3) @ Miami (OH) (14-0) Miami (OH) (52.0%) DOG +9.1% 03:30 PM 68
Tennessee State (8-5) @ Little Rock (5-9) Tennessee State (50.7%) DOG +5.0% 04:00 PM 49
Lafayette (3-11) @ Loyola Maryland (4-10) Loyola Maryland (50.4%) DOG +4.7% 05:00 PM 50
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Expected Value Time (ET)
Penn State vs Illinois Penn State DOG 16.7% +1050 ⭐⭐⭐ +92.4% 07:00 PM
Florida State vs Duke Florida State DOG 16.7% +850 ⭐⭐⭐ +58.9% 03:45 PM
Prairie View A&M @ Grambling Prairie View A&M DOG 39.4% +230 ⭐⭐⭐ +29.9% 05:00 PM
Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Game Prediction Edge Time (ET) Hype Level
Akron (10-3) @ Miami (OH) (14-0) Miami (OH) (52.0%) +9.1% 03:30 PM 68
Hofstra (10-4) @ Drexel (6-9) Hofstra (80.7%) +9.1% 02:00 PM 29
California Baptist (10-5) @ Tarleton State (10-5) Tarleton State (62.8%) +8.5% 05:00 PM 57
Eastern Washington (2-11) @ Idaho (8-5) Idaho (81.3%) +8.4% 05:00 PM 19
UT Arlington (9-5) @ Southern Utah (4-10) UT Arlington (77.5%) +8.2% 08:30 PM 22
Sacramento State (4-9) @ Weber State (6-8) Weber State (79.2%) +7.9% 09:00 PM 21
Texas State (8-7) @ UL Monroe (3-12) Texas State (80.2%) +7.4% 03:30 PM 20
Wichita State (9-5) @ Charlotte (6-8) Wichita State (75.0%) +7.0% 06:00 PM 25
Auburn (9-4) @ Georgia #23 (12-1) Georgia (73.7%) +6.8% 01:00 PM 61
Dayton (10-4) @ Loyola Chicago (5-9) Dayton (84.2%) +6.6% 02:00 PM 26
Davidson (8-5) @ Saint Joseph's (8-6) Saint Joseph's (54.3%) +6.5% 06:00 PM 46
Texas Southern (2-9) @ Southern (4-9) Southern (75.6%) +6.3% 06:00 PM 24
BYU #10 (12-1) @ Kansas State (9-4) BYU (81.6%) +6.0% 01:30 PM 53
Utah Valley (12-3) @ Abilene Christian (8-6) Utah Valley (82.0%) +5.8% 04:00 PM 28
Western Carolina (4-8) @ Furman (10-4) Furman (85.9%) +5.4% 04:00 PM 24
James Madison (7-7) @ Arkansas State (10-4) Arkansas State (82.6%) +5.3% 03:00 PM 27
Chattanooga (6-8) @ VMI (5-9) Chattanooga (73.1%) +5.1% 01:00 PM 27
Game Prediction Edge Time (ET) Hype Level

Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values show which features have the most impact on our model's predictions. The values below represent the mean absolute SHAP value across all 120 games today.

XGBoost Win/Loss Model

Feature importance for win/loss predictions. Higher values indicate stronger influence on the predicted outcome.

Efficiency Diff
0.3812
Point Spread
0.2515
Srs Diff Rolling
0.1601
Away Team Implied Probability
0.1538
Home Team Implied Probability
0.0602
Home Moneyline
0.0499
Home Last10 Margin
0.0458
Away Moneyline
0.0431
Away Offensive Rating
0.0286
Conference Game True
0.0269
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