Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Tuesday, January 06, 2026

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
Central Michigan (4-11) @ Akron (10-4)	Akron (97.2%)	07:00 PM	13
07:00 PM Central Michigan @ Akron 4-11 vs 10-4 Central Michigan 2.8% Akron 97.2% Model Pick Akron 97.2% Pick Spread Akron -23.0 Home ML -10000 Away ML +1600 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.8% MODEL PROB 97.2% VEGAS TRUE 94.4% VEGAS JUICED 99.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Central Michigan 71 vs Akron 93 Total 163.9 Margin +22.7 Spread DOG COVERS @52% Diff -0.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 164.5 @52%
Western Michigan (6-8) @ Miami (OH) (15-0)	Miami (OH) (92.3%)	07:00 PM	18
07:00 PM +5.0% EDGE Western Michigan @ Miami (OH) 6-8 vs 15-0 Western Michigan 7.7% Miami (OH) 92.3% Model Pick Miami (OH) 92.3% Pick Spread Miami (OH) -14.0 Home ML -1100 Away ML +650 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.0% MODEL PROB 92.3% VEGAS TRUE 87.3% VEGAS JUICED 91.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Western Michigan 70 vs Miami (OH) 88 Total 157.9 Margin +17.9 Spread FAV COVERS @61% Diff +3.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.2 @57%
Utah State (12-1) @ Air Force (3-11)	Utah State (87.1%)	09:00 PM	23
09:00 PM Utah State @ Air Force 12-1 vs 3-11 Utah State 87.1% Air Force 12.9% Model Pick Utah State 87.1% Pick Spread Utah State -22.0 Home ML +1600 Away ML -10000 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -7.3% MODEL PROB 87.1% VEGAS TRUE 94.4% VEGAS JUICED 99.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Utah State 76 vs Air Force 63 Total 139.3 Margin -13.3 Spread DOG COVERS @74% Diff -8.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.2 @53%
NC State (10-5) @ Boston College (7-7)	NC State (83.5%)	09:00 PM	16
09:00 PM NC State @ Boston College 10-5 vs 7-7 NC State 83.5% Boston College 16.5% Model Pick NC State 83.5% Pick Spread NC State -11.5 Home ML +600 Away ML -950 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.9% MODEL PROB 83.5% VEGAS TRUE 86.4% VEGAS JUICED 90.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE NC State 70 vs Boston College 63 Total 132.6 Margin -6.8 Spread DOG COVERS @64% Diff -4.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 141.2 @75%
Michigan #2 (13-0) @ Penn State (9-5)	Michigan (83.1%)	07:00 PM	57
07:00 PM Michigan #2 @ Penn State 13-0 vs 9-5 Michigan 83.1% Penn State 16.9% Model Pick Michigan 83.1% Pick Spread Michigan -23.5 Home ML +1300 Away ML -5000 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -10.1% MODEL PROB 83.1% VEGAS TRUE 93.2% VEGAS JUICED 98.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Michigan 89 vs Penn State 75 Total 164.4 Margin -13.6 Spread DOG COVERS @78% Diff -9.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 168.0 @61%
Texas (9-5) @ Tennessee #21 (10-4)	Tennessee (79.5%)	09:00 PM	56
09:00 PM Texas @ Tennessee #21 9-5 vs 10-4 Texas 20.5% Tennessee 79.5% Model Pick Tennessee 79.5% Pick Spread Tennessee -10.5 Home ML -625 Away ML +430 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.5% MODEL PROB 79.5% VEGAS TRUE 82.0% VEGAS JUICED 86.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Texas 72 vs Tennessee 83 Total 155.0 Margin +11.8 Spread FAV COVERS @54% Diff +1.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 151.5 @61%
South Carolina (9-5) @ LSU (12-2)	LSU (78.9%)	07:00 PM	41
07:00 PM +5.6% EDGE South Carolina @ LSU 9-5 vs 12-2 South Carolina 21.1% LSU 78.9% Model Pick LSU 78.9% Pick Spread LSU -8.0 Home ML -320 Away ML +260 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.6% MODEL PROB 78.9% VEGAS TRUE 73.3% VEGAS JUICED 76.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE South Carolina 68 vs LSU 78 Total 145.4 Margin +10.0 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 145.5 @50%
Toledo (8-6) @ Northern Illinois (5-9)	Toledo (75.2%)	08:00 PM	25
08:00 PM +4.8% EDGE Toledo @ Northern Illinois 8-6 vs 5-9 Toledo 75.2% Northern Illinois 24.8% Model Pick Toledo 75.2% Pick Spread Toledo -8.0 Home ML +225 Away ML -272 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.8% MODEL PROB 75.2% VEGAS TRUE 70.4% VEGAS JUICED 73.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Toledo 80 vs Northern Illinois 74 Total 154.6 Margin -6.4 Spread DOG COVERS @54% Diff -1.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 161.5 @70%
Iowa #19 (12-2) @ Minnesota (9-5)	Iowa (72.4%)	08:00 PM	63
08:00 PM Iowa #19 @ Minnesota 12-2 vs 9-5 Iowa 72.4% Minnesota 27.6% Model Pick Iowa 72.4% Pick Spread Iowa -5.0 Home ML +225 Away ML -275 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.9% MODEL PROB 72.4% VEGAS TRUE 70.4% VEGAS JUICED 73.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Iowa 71 vs Minnesota 65 Total 135.5 Margin -6.1 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +0.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 132.2 @60%
Georgia #18 (13-1) @ Florida (9-5)	Florida (70.6%)	07:00 PM	64
07:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Georgia #18 @ Florida 13-1 vs 9-5 Georgia 29.4% Florida 70.6% Model Pick Florida 70.6% Pick Spread Florida -10.0 Home ML -435 Away ML +325 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -7.0% MODEL PROB 70.6% VEGAS TRUE 77.6% VEGAS JUICED 81.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Georgia 83 vs Florida 94 Total 176.2 Margin +11.0 Spread FAV COVERS @54% Diff +1.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 173.0 @60%
TCU (11-3) @ Kansas #22 (10-4)	Kansas (70.0%)	09:00 PM	65
09:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT TCU @ Kansas #22 11-3 vs 10-4 TCU 30.0% Kansas 70.0% Model Pick Kansas 70.0% Pick Spread Kansas -7.5 Home ML -310 Away ML +255 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.9% MODEL PROB 70.0% VEGAS TRUE 72.9% VEGAS JUICED 75.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE TCU 64 vs Kansas 71 Total 134.4 Margin +7.0 Spread DOG COVERS @52% Diff -0.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 141.5 @71%
Texas Tech #14 (11-3) @ Houston #7 (13-1)	Houston (69.5%)	09:00 PM	80
09:00 PM Texas Tech #14 @ Houston #7 11-3 vs 13-1 Texas Tech 30.5% Houston 69.5% Model Pick Houston 69.5% Pick Spread Houston -7.0 Home ML -245 Away ML +205 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.1% MODEL PROB 69.5% VEGAS TRUE 68.4% VEGAS JUICED 71.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Texas Tech 65 vs Houston 79 Total 143.8 Margin +13.6 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 142.8 @53%
Texas A&M (11-3) @ Auburn (9-5)	Auburn (68.2%)	09:00 PM	52
09:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Texas A&M @ Auburn 11-3 vs 9-5 Texas A&M 31.8% Auburn 68.2% Model Pick Auburn 68.2% Pick Spread Auburn -6.5 Home ML -310 Away ML +255 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -4.7% MODEL PROB 68.2% VEGAS TRUE 72.9% VEGAS JUICED 75.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Texas A&M 81 vs Auburn 88 Total 168.8 Margin +7.0 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.5 Vegas O/U BET OVER 166.8 @56%
UNLV (7-6) @ Wyoming (10-4)	Wyoming (67.5%)	10:00 PM	42
10:00 PM +4.1% EDGE UNLV @ Wyoming 7-6 vs 10-4 UNLV 32.5% Wyoming 67.5% Model Pick Wyoming 67.5% Pick Spread Wyoming -4.0 Home ML -195 Away ML +162 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.1% MODEL PROB 67.5% VEGAS TRUE 63.5% VEGAS JUICED 66.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UNLV 68 vs Wyoming 72 Total 139.5 Margin +3.9 Spread FAV COVERS @50% Diff +0.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 153.2 @85%
Georgetown (9-5) @ DePaul (9-6)	DePaul (66.8%)	08:00 PM	33
08:00 PM CLOSE Georgetown @ DePaul 9-5 vs 9-6 Georgetown 33.2% DePaul 66.8% Model Pick DePaul 66.8% Pick Spread DePaul -3.0 Home ML -120 Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Georgetown 69 vs DePaul 82 Total 150.5 Margin +12.7 Spread FAV COVERS @78% Diff +10.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.5 @68%
Massachusetts (9-6) @ Ohio (8-7)	Ohio (62.1%)	06:00 PM	38
06:00 PM Massachusetts @ Ohio 9-6 vs 8-7 Massachusetts 37.9% Ohio 62.1% Model Pick Ohio 62.1% Pick Spread Ohio -4.0 Home ML -163 Away ML +138 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.5% MODEL PROB 62.1% VEGAS TRUE 59.6% VEGAS JUICED 62.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Massachusetts 73 vs Ohio 83 Total 156.2 Margin +9.4 Spread FAV COVERS @65% Diff +5.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.5 @63%
Cincinnati (8-6) @ West Virginia (9-5)	West Virginia (60.2%)	07:00 PM	40
07:00 PM +4.0% EDGECLOSE Cincinnati @ West Virginia 8-6 vs 9-5 Cincinnati 39.8% West Virginia 60.2% Model Pick West Virginia 60.2% Pick Spread West Virginia -1.0 Home ML -140 Away ML +120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.0% MODEL PROB 60.2% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cincinnati 55 vs West Virginia 65 Total 120.1 Margin +9.7 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 130.8 @79%
George Washington (11-4) @ Dayton (11-4)	Dayton (58.7%)	08:00 PM	61
08:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT George Washington @ Dayton 11-4 vs 11-4 George Washington 41.3% Dayton 58.7% Model Pick Dayton 58.7% Pick Spread Dayton -2.5 Home ML -145 Away ML +125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.6% MODEL PROB 58.7% VEGAS TRUE 57.1% VEGAS JUICED 59.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE George Washington 65 vs Dayton 77 Total 142.5 Margin +11.7 Spread FAV COVERS @76% Diff +9.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.2 @82%
UCLA (10-4) @ Wisconsin (9-5)	Wisconsin (58.6%)	09:00 PM	61
09:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT UCLA @ Wisconsin 10-4 vs 9-5 UCLA 41.4% Wisconsin 58.6% Model Pick Wisconsin 58.6% Pick Spread Wisconsin -4.0 Home ML -180 Away ML +152 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -3.3% MODEL PROB 58.6% VEGAS TRUE 61.9% VEGAS JUICED 64.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UCLA 71 vs Wisconsin 78 Total 149.4 Margin +7.0 Spread FAV COVERS @60% Diff +3.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 152.8 @60%
UCF #25 (12-1) @ Oklahoma State (12-2)	Oklahoma State (57.0%)	08:00 PM	78
08:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT UCF #25 @ Oklahoma State 12-1 vs 12-2 UCF 43.0% Oklahoma State 57.0% Model Pick Oklahoma State 57.0% Pick Spread Oklahoma State -2.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -3.9% MODEL PROB 57.0% VEGAS TRUE 60.9% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UCF 86 vs Oklahoma State 87 Total 172.9 Margin +1.7 Spread DOG COVERS @52% Diff -0.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 174.5 @55%
Bowling Green (11-4) @ Kent State (11-3)	Kent State (56.2%)	07:00 PM	64
07:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Bowling Green @ Kent State 11-4 vs 11-3 Bowling Green 43.8% Kent State 56.2% Model Pick Kent State 56.2% Pick Spread Kent State -3.0 Home ML -120 Away ML +100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.0% MODEL PROB 56.2% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Bowling Green 73 vs Kent State 81 Total 154.0 Margin +8.4 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 153.0 @53%
St. John's (9-5) @ Butler (10-5)	St. John's (54.8%)	07:00 PM	65
07:00 PM St. John's @ Butler 9-5 vs 10-5 St. John's 54.8% Butler 45.2% Model Pick St. John's 54.8% Pick Spread St. John's -4.0 Home ML +150 Away ML -178 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -6.8% MODEL PROB 54.8% VEGAS TRUE 61.6% VEGAS JUICED 64.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE St. John's 82 vs Butler 78 Total 160.8 Margin -4.0 Spread DOG COVERS @51% Diff -0.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 162.8 @56%
Lindenwood (10-5) @ SIU Edwardsville (9-6)	SIU Edwardsville (54.3%) DOG	08:30 PM	46
08:30 PM CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT Lindenwood @ SIU Edwardsville 10-5 vs 9-6 Lindenwood 45.7% SIU Edwardsville 54.3% Model Pick SIU Edwardsville 54.3% Pick Spread SIU Edwardsville +1.5 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.4% MODEL PROB 54.3% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Lindenwood 67 vs SIU Edwardsville 74 Total 141.5 Margin +7.3 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.8 @57%
San Diego State (9-4) @ Nevada (11-3)	Nevada (53.0%)	11:00 PM	67
11:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT San Diego State @ Nevada 9-4 vs 11-3 San Diego State 47.0% Nevada 53.0% Model Pick Nevada 53.0% Pick Spread Nevada -1.5 Home ML -112 Away ML -107 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.5% MODEL PROB 53.0% VEGAS TRUE 50.5% VEGAS JUICED 52.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE San Diego State 70 vs Nevada 79 Total 148.7 Margin +8.9 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.5 @71%
Eastern Michigan (7-8) @ Ball State (4-10)	Ball State (52.4%)	07:00 PM	48
07:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Eastern Michigan @ Ball State 7-8 vs 4-10 Eastern Michigan 47.6% Ball State 52.4% Model Pick Ball State 52.4% Pick Spread Ball State -1.5 Home ML -120 Away ML +100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.2% MODEL PROB 52.4% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Eastern Michigan 67 vs Ball State 76 Total 143.2 Margin +9.2 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.8 @66%
Syracuse (9-5) @ Georgia Tech (10-5)	Syracuse (52.1%)	07:00 PM	68
07:00 PM CLOSE Syracuse @ Georgia Tech 9-5 vs 10-5 Syracuse 52.1% Georgia Tech 47.9% Model Pick Syracuse 52.1% Pick Spread Syracuse -2.0 Home ML +134 Away ML -159 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -6.9% MODEL PROB 52.1% VEGAS TRUE 59.0% VEGAS JUICED 61.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Syracuse 74 vs Georgia Tech 67 Total 140.4 Margin -7.0 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.5 @68%
New Mexico (11-3) @ Colorado State (10-4)	Colorado State (51.4%) DOG	09:00 PM	69
09:00 PM CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT New Mexico @ Colorado State 11-3 vs 10-4 New Mexico 48.6% Colorado State 51.4% Model Pick Colorado State 51.4% Pick Spread Colorado State +1.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -121 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Mexico 65 vs Colorado State 71 Total 135.3 Margin +6.1 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.5 @71%
Fresno State (6-8) @ San José State (5-9)	San José State (51.1%)	10:00 PM	49
10:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Fresno State @ San José State 6-8 vs 5-9 Fresno State 48.9% San José State 51.1% Model Pick San José State 51.1% Pick Spread San José State -1.0 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.2% MODEL PROB 51.1% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fresno State 68 vs San José State 78 Total 146.5 Margin +9.9 Spread FAV COVERS @75% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 149.5 @59%
Duke #6 (13-1) @ Louisville #20 (11-3)	Louisville (50.6%) DOG	07:00 PM	99
07:00 PM CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT Duke #6 @ Louisville #20 13-1 vs 11-3 Duke 49.4% Louisville 50.6% Model Pick Louisville 50.6% Pick Spread Louisville +1.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Duke 75 vs Louisville 82 Total 156.4 Margin +7.2 Spread DOG COVERS @74% Diff +8.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 161.5 @65%

RECOMMENDED PICKS CRITERIA

Edge ≥ 4.0 pts • Spread ≤ 12 pts • Confidence ≥ 65%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
South Carolina (9-5) @ LSU (12-2)	LSU (78.9%)	07:00 PM	41
07:00 PM+5.6% EDGE South Carolina @ LSU 9-5 vs 12-2 South Carolina 21.1% LSU 78.9% Model Pick LSU 78.9% Pick Spread -8.0 Home ML -320 Away ML +260 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.6% MODEL PROB 78.9% VEGAS TRUE 73.3% VEGAS JUICED 76.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE South Carolina 68 vs LSU 78 Total 145.4 Margin +10.0 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 145.5 @50%
Western Michigan (6-8) @ Miami (OH) (15-0)	Miami (OH) (92.3%)	07:00 PM	18
07:00 PM+5.0% EDGE Western Michigan @ Miami (OH) 6-8 vs 15-0 Western Michigan 7.7% Miami (OH) 92.3% Model Pick Miami (OH) 92.3% Pick Spread -14.0 Home ML -1100 Away ML +650 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.0% MODEL PROB 92.3% VEGAS TRUE 87.3% VEGAS JUICED 91.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Western Michigan 70 vs Miami (OH) 88 Total 157.9 Margin +17.9 Spread FAV COVERS @61% Diff +3.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.2 @57%
Toledo (8-6) @ Northern Illinois (5-9)	Toledo (75.2%) DOG	08:00 PM	25
08:00 PM+4.8% EDGE Toledo @ Northern Illinois 8-6 vs 5-9 Toledo 75.2% Northern Illinois 24.8% Model Pick Toledo 75.2% Pick Spread +8.0 Home ML +225 Away ML -272 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.8% MODEL PROB 75.2% VEGAS TRUE 70.4% VEGAS JUICED 73.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Toledo 80 vs Northern Illinois 74 Total 154.6 Margin -6.4 Spread DOG COVERS @54% Diff -1.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 161.5 @70%
UNLV (7-6) @ Wyoming (10-4)	Wyoming (67.5%)	10:00 PM	42
10:00 PM+4.1% EDGE UNLV @ Wyoming 7-6 vs 10-4 UNLV 32.5% Wyoming 67.5% Model Pick Wyoming 67.5% Pick Spread -4.0 Home ML -195 Away ML +162 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.1% MODEL PROB 67.5% VEGAS TRUE 63.5% VEGAS JUICED 66.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UNLV 68 vs Wyoming 72 Total 139.5 Margin +3.9 Spread FAV COVERS @50% Diff +0.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 153.2 @85%
Cincinnati (8-6) @ West Virginia (9-5)	West Virginia (60.2%)	07:00 PM	40
07:00 PM+4.0% EDGE Cincinnati @ West Virginia 8-6 vs 9-5 Cincinnati 39.8% West Virginia 60.2% Model Pick West Virginia 60.2% Pick Spread -1.0 Home ML -140 Away ML +120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.0% MODEL PROB 60.2% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cincinnati 55 vs West Virginia 65 Total 120.1 Margin +9.7 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 130.8 @79%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Georgetown (9-5) @ DePaul (9-6)	DePaul (66.8%)	08:00 PM	33
08:00 PMCLOSE Georgetown @ DePaul 9-5 vs 9-6 Georgetown 33.2% DePaul 66.8% Model Pick DePaul 66.8% Pick Spread DePaul -3.0 Home ML -120 Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Georgetown 69 vs DePaul 82 Total 150.5 Margin +12.7 Spread FAV COVERS @78% Diff +10.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.5 @68%
Cincinnati (8-6) @ West Virginia (9-5)	West Virginia (60.2%)	07:00 PM	40
07:00 PMCLOSE Cincinnati @ West Virginia 8-6 vs 9-5 Cincinnati 39.8% West Virginia 60.2% Model Pick West Virginia 60.2% Pick Spread West Virginia -1.0 Home ML -140 Away ML +120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.0% MODEL PROB 60.2% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cincinnati 55 vs West Virginia 65 Total 120.1 Margin +9.7 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 130.8 @79%
George Washington (11-4) @ Dayton (11-4)	Dayton (58.7%)	08:00 PM	61
08:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT George Washington @ Dayton 11-4 vs 11-4 George Washington 41.3% Dayton 58.7% Model Pick Dayton 58.7% Pick Spread Dayton -2.5 Home ML -145 Away ML +125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.6% MODEL PROB 58.7% VEGAS TRUE 57.1% VEGAS JUICED 59.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE George Washington 65 vs Dayton 77 Total 142.5 Margin +11.7 Spread FAV COVERS @76% Diff +9.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.2 @82%
UCF #25 (12-1) @ Oklahoma State (12-2)	Oklahoma State (57.0%)	08:00 PM	78
08:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT UCF #25 @ Oklahoma State 12-1 vs 12-2 UCF 43.0% Oklahoma State 57.0% Model Pick Oklahoma State 57.0% Pick Spread Oklahoma State -2.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -3.9% MODEL PROB 57.0% VEGAS TRUE 60.9% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UCF 86 vs Oklahoma State 87 Total 172.9 Margin +1.7 Spread DOG COVERS @52% Diff -0.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 174.5 @55%
Bowling Green (11-4) @ Kent State (11-3)	Kent State (56.2%)	07:00 PM	64
07:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Bowling Green @ Kent State 11-4 vs 11-3 Bowling Green 43.8% Kent State 56.2% Model Pick Kent State 56.2% Pick Spread Kent State -3.0 Home ML -120 Away ML +100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.0% MODEL PROB 56.2% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Bowling Green 73 vs Kent State 81 Total 154.0 Margin +8.4 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 153.0 @53%
Lindenwood (10-5) @ SIU Edwardsville (9-6)	SIU Edwardsville (54.3%) DOG	08:30 PM	46
08:30 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Lindenwood @ SIU Edwardsville 10-5 vs 9-6 Lindenwood 45.7% SIU Edwardsville 54.3% Model Pick SIU Edwardsville 54.3% Pick Spread SIU Edwardsville +1.5 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.4% MODEL PROB 54.3% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Lindenwood 67 vs SIU Edwardsville 74 Total 141.5 Margin +7.3 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.8 @57%
San Diego State (9-4) @ Nevada (11-3)	Nevada (53.0%)	11:00 PM	67
11:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT San Diego State @ Nevada 9-4 vs 11-3 San Diego State 47.0% Nevada 53.0% Model Pick Nevada 53.0% Pick Spread Nevada -1.5 Home ML -112 Away ML -107 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.5% MODEL PROB 53.0% VEGAS TRUE 50.5% VEGAS JUICED 52.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE San Diego State 70 vs Nevada 79 Total 148.7 Margin +8.9 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.5 @71%
Eastern Michigan (7-8) @ Ball State (4-10)	Ball State (52.4%)	07:00 PM	48
07:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Eastern Michigan @ Ball State 7-8 vs 4-10 Eastern Michigan 47.6% Ball State 52.4% Model Pick Ball State 52.4% Pick Spread Ball State -1.5 Home ML -120 Away ML +100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.2% MODEL PROB 52.4% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Eastern Michigan 67 vs Ball State 76 Total 143.2 Margin +9.2 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.8 @66%
Syracuse (9-5) @ Georgia Tech (10-5)	Syracuse (52.1%)	07:00 PM	68
07:00 PMCLOSE Syracuse @ Georgia Tech 9-5 vs 10-5 Syracuse 52.1% Georgia Tech 47.9% Model Pick Syracuse 52.1% Pick Spread Syracuse -2.0 Home ML +134 Away ML -159 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -6.9% MODEL PROB 52.1% VEGAS TRUE 59.0% VEGAS JUICED 61.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Syracuse 74 vs Georgia Tech 67 Total 140.4 Margin -7.0 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.5 @68%
New Mexico (11-3) @ Colorado State (10-4)	Colorado State (51.4%) DOG	09:00 PM	69
09:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT New Mexico @ Colorado State 11-3 vs 10-4 New Mexico 48.6% Colorado State 51.4% Model Pick Colorado State 51.4% Pick Spread Colorado State +1.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -121 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Mexico 65 vs Colorado State 71 Total 135.3 Margin +6.1 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.5 @71%
Fresno State (6-8) @ San José State (5-9)	San José State (51.1%)	10:00 PM	49
10:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Fresno State @ San José State 6-8 vs 5-9 Fresno State 48.9% San José State 51.1% Model Pick San José State 51.1% Pick Spread San José State -1.0 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.2% MODEL PROB 51.1% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fresno State 68 vs San José State 78 Total 146.5 Margin +9.9 Spread FAV COVERS @75% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 149.5 @59%
Duke #6 (13-1) @ Louisville #20 (11-3)	Louisville (50.6%) DOG	07:00 PM	99
07:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Duke #6 @ Louisville #20 13-1 vs 11-3 Duke 49.4% Louisville 50.6% Model Pick Louisville 50.6% Pick Spread Louisville +1.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Duke 75 vs Louisville 82 Total 156.4 Margin +7.2 Spread DOG COVERS @74% Diff +8.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 161.5 @65%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
New Mexico (11-3) @ Colorado State (10-4)	Colorado State (51.4%) DOG	+0.0%	09:00 PM	69
09:00 PMUNDERDOG MLSIGNAL CONFLICT New Mexico @ Colorado State 11-3 vs 10-4 New Mexico 48.6% Colorado State 51.4% Model Pick Colorado State 51.4% Pick Spread Colorado State +1.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -121 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Mexico 65 vs Colorado State 71 Total 135.3 Margin +6.1 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.5 @71%

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
Penn State vs Michigan	Penn State DOG	16.9%	+1300	⭐⭐⭐ +136.6%	07:00 PM
Air Force vs Utah State	Air Force DOG	12.9%	+1600	⭐⭐⭐ +118.6%	09:00 PM
Georgia @ Florida	Georgia DOG	29.4%	+325	⭐⭐⭐ +25.1%	07:00 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
South Carolina (9-5) @ LSU (12-2)	LSU (78.9%)	+5.6%	07:00 PM	41
07:00 PM+5.6% EDGE South Carolina @ LSU 9-5 vs 12-2 South Carolina 21.1% LSU 78.9% Model Pick LSU 78.9% Pick Spread -8.0 Home ML -320 Away ML +260 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.6% MODEL PROB 78.9% VEGAS TRUE 73.3% VEGAS JUICED 76.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE South Carolina 68 vs LSU 78 Total 145.4 Margin +10.0 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 145.5 @50%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Model Information

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Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

XGBoost Win/Loss Model