Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Thursday, January 08, 2026

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
Rutgers (8-7) @ Illinois #16 (11-3)	Illinois (97.1%)	08:30 PM	28
08:30 PM Rutgers @ Illinois #16 8-7 vs 11-3 Rutgers 2.9% Illinois 97.1% Model Pick Illinois 97.1% Pick Spread Illinois -22.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Rutgers 56 vs Illinois 81 Total 137.0 Margin +25.6 Spread FAV COVERS @59% Diff +3.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.5 @77%
Southern Utah (4-11) @ Utah Valley (12-4)	Utah Valley (96.1%)	08:00 PM	14
08:00 PM Southern Utah @ Utah Valley 4-11 vs 12-4 Southern Utah 3.9% Utah Valley 96.1% Model Pick Utah Valley 96.1% Pick Spread Utah Valley -19.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Southern Utah 70 vs Utah Valley 80 Total 150.4 Margin +9.8 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff -9.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.2 @62%
Binghamton (4-12) @ Vermont (9-7)	Vermont (94.5%)	07:00 PM	6
07:00 PM Binghamton @ Vermont 4-12 vs 9-7 Binghamton 5.5% Vermont 94.5% Model Pick Vermont 94.5% Pick Spread Vermont -19.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Binghamton 61 vs Vermont 80 Total 140.6 Margin +19.2 Spread DOG COVERS @50% Diff -0.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.5 @56%
Santa Clara (13-4) @ Gonzaga #8 (16-1)	Gonzaga (91.6%)	11:30 PM	43
11:30 PM Santa Clara @ Gonzaga #8 13-4 vs 16-1 Santa Clara 8.4% Gonzaga 91.6% Model Pick Gonzaga 91.6% Pick Spread Gonzaga -16.0 Home ML -1800 Away ML +850 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.6% MODEL PROB 91.6% VEGAS TRUE 90.0% VEGAS JUICED 94.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Santa Clara 67 vs Gonzaga 89 Total 155.6 Margin +22.0 Spread FAV COVERS @67% Diff +5.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 166.5 @80%
Cal State Fullerton (6-10) @ UC San Diego (12-3)	UC San Diego (89.4%)	10:00 PM	21
10:00 PM +5.4% EDGE Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego 6-10 vs 12-3 Cal State Fullerton 10.6% UC San Diego 89.4% Model Pick UC San Diego 89.4% Pick Spread UC San Diego -13.5 Home ML -700 Away ML +500 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.4% MODEL PROB 89.4% VEGAS TRUE 84.0% VEGAS JUICED 87.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cal State Fullerton 68 vs UC San Diego 82 Total 150.2 Margin +14.0 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 166.5 @90%
Delaware (5-9) @ Sam Houston (8-6)	Sam Houston (89.3%)	07:30 PM	11
07:30 PM +3.5% EDGE Delaware @ Sam Houston 5-9 vs 8-6 Delaware 10.7% Sam Houston 89.3% Model Pick Sam Houston 89.3% Pick Spread Sam Houston -12.0 Home ML -900 Away ML +575 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.5% MODEL PROB 89.3% VEGAS TRUE 85.9% VEGAS JUICED 90.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Delaware 65 vs Sam Houston 74 Total 139.3 Margin +8.9 Spread DOG COVERS @59% Diff -2.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 144.5 @66%
Northwestern (8-6) @ Michigan State #12 (13-2)	Michigan State (88.7%)	06:30 PM	36
06:30 PM Northwestern @ Michigan State #12 8-6 vs 13-2 Northwestern 11.3% Michigan State 88.7% Model Pick Michigan State 88.7% Pick Spread Michigan State -13.0 Home ML -950 Away ML +600 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.4% MODEL PROB 88.7% VEGAS TRUE 86.4% VEGAS JUICED 90.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Northwestern 66 vs Michigan State 74 Total 141.0 Margin +8.0 Spread DOG COVERS @64% Diff -4.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.8 @55%
Long Beach State (5-10) @ UC Irvine (11-5)	UC Irvine (88.0%)	10:00 PM	12
10:00 PM Long Beach State @ UC Irvine 5-10 vs 11-5 Long Beach State 12.0% UC Irvine 88.0% Model Pick UC Irvine 88.0% Pick Spread UC Irvine -9.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Long Beach State 67 vs UC Irvine 74 Total 141.0 Margin +7.2 Spread DOG COVERS @57% Diff -2.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.5 @55%
Lipscomb (9-6) @ Stetson (5-10)	Lipscomb (84.8%)	07:00 PM	15
07:00 PM Lipscomb @ Stetson 9-6 vs 5-10 Lipscomb 84.8% Stetson 15.2% Model Pick Lipscomb 84.8% Pick Spread Lipscomb -11.5 Home ML +525 Away ML -800 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.1% MODEL PROB 84.8% VEGAS TRUE 84.7% VEGAS JUICED 88.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Lipscomb 80 vs Stetson 75 Total 155.4 Margin -4.6 Spread DOG COVERS @70% Diff -6.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 151.0 @63%
St. Francis (PA) (3-12) @ Wagner (6-7)	Wagner (81.1%)	07:00 PM	19
07:00 PM +4.1% EDGE St. Francis (PA) @ Wagner 3-12 vs 6-7 St. Francis (PA) 18.9% Wagner 81.1% Model Pick Wagner 81.1% Pick Spread Wagner -7.5 Home ML -420 Away ML +315 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.1% MODEL PROB 81.1% VEGAS TRUE 77.0% VEGAS JUICED 80.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE St. Francis (PA) 62 vs Wagner 79 Total 141.1 Margin +16.3 Spread FAV COVERS @75% Diff +8.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 144.5 @60%
UNLV (7-7) @ Utah State (13-1)	Utah State (80.8%)	12:00 AM	29
12:00 AM UNLV @ Utah State 7-7 vs 13-1 UNLV 19.2% Utah State 80.8% Model Pick Utah State 80.8% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UNLV 67 vs Utah State 75 Total 141.8 Margin +8.2
Stonehill (4-11) @ Central Connecticut (7-6)	Central Connecticut (80.8%)	07:00 PM	19
07:00 PM Stonehill @ Central Connecticut 4-11 vs 7-6 Stonehill 19.2% Central Connecticut 80.8% Model Pick Central Connecticut 80.8% Pick Spread Central Connecticut -8.5 Home ML -460 Away ML +340 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.5% MODEL PROB 80.8% VEGAS TRUE 78.3% VEGAS JUICED 82.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Stonehill 62 vs Central Connecticut 68 Total 130.3 Margin +6.5 Spread DOG COVERS @56% Diff -2.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 134.8 @63%
North Dakota State (12-5) @ Kansas City (4-12)	North Dakota State (78.1%)	08:00 PM	32
08:00 PM North Dakota State @ Kansas City 12-5 vs 4-12 North Dakota State 78.1% Kansas City 21.9% Model Pick North Dakota State 78.1% Pick Spread North Dakota State -9.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Dakota State 78 vs Kansas City 68 Total 146.1 Margin -9.7 Spread FAV COVERS @51% Diff +0.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 145.5 @52%
Maine (2-14) @ UMBC (7-6)	UMBC (77.7%)	06:00 PM	22
06:00 PM Maine @ UMBC 2-14 vs 7-6 Maine 22.3% UMBC 77.7% Model Pick UMBC 77.7% Pick Spread UMBC -7.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Maine 60 vs UMBC 69 Total 129.4 Margin +9.4 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +1.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 132.5 @59%
Tennessee State (9-5) @ Western Illinois (4-11)	Tennessee State (77.3%)	08:30 PM	23
08:30 PM +6.9% EDGE Tennessee State @ Western Illinois 9-5 vs 4-11 Tennessee State 77.3% Western Illinois 22.7% Model Pick Tennessee State 77.3% Pick Spread Tennessee State -6.5 Home ML +225 Away ML -275 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.9% MODEL PROB 77.3% VEGAS TRUE 70.4% VEGAS JUICED 73.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Tennessee State 75 vs Western Illinois 68 Total 142.8 Margin -6.4 Spread DOG COVERS @50% Diff -0.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.0 @60%
Denver (8-9) @ South Dakota State (8-9)	South Dakota State (74.9%)	08:00 PM	25
08:00 PM Denver @ South Dakota State 8-9 vs 8-9 Denver 25.1% South Dakota State 74.9% Model Pick South Dakota State 74.9% Pick Spread South Dakota State -8.5 Home ML -312 Away ML +247 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.4% MODEL PROB 74.9% VEGAS TRUE 72.5% VEGAS JUICED 75.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Denver 76 vs South Dakota State 88 Total 163.9 Margin +12.3 Spread FAV COVERS @61% Diff +3.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 162.5 @54%
Cal Poly (6-10) @ Cal State Northridge (9-7)	Cal State Northridge (74.8%)	10:00 PM	25
10:00 PM +3.9% EDGE Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge 6-10 vs 9-7 Cal Poly 25.2% Cal State Northridge 74.8% Model Pick Cal State Northridge 74.8% Pick Spread Cal State Northridge -7.5 Home ML -280 Away ML +230 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.9% MODEL PROB 74.8% VEGAS TRUE 70.9% VEGAS JUICED 73.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cal Poly 72 vs Cal State Northridge 80 Total 152.3 Margin +8.5 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +1.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 174.2 @95%
Southeast Missouri State (8-7) @ Southern Indiana (3-11)	Southeast Missouri State (74.6%)	08:30 PM	25
08:30 PM Southeast Missouri State @ Southern Indiana 8-7 vs 3-11 Southeast Missouri State 74.6% Southern Indiana 25.4% Model Pick Southeast Missouri State 74.6% Pick Spread Southeast Missouri State -7.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Southeast Missouri State 73 vs Southern Indiana 66 Total 138.6 Margin -6.8 Spread DOG COVERS @52% Diff -0.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.5 @73%
Mercyhurst (6-9) @ Long Island University (8-7)	Long Island University (74.2%)	07:00 PM	26
07:00 PM Mercyhurst @ Long Island University 6-9 vs 8-7 Mercyhurst 25.8% Long Island University 74.2% Model Pick Long Island University 74.2% Pick Spread Long Island University -8.5 Home ML -460 Away ML +340 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -4.1% MODEL PROB 74.2% VEGAS TRUE 78.3% VEGAS JUICED 82.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Mercyhurst 63 vs Long Island University 71 Total 134.6 Margin +8.2 Spread DOG COVERS @51% Diff -0.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 139.5 @65%
Abilene Christian (9-6) @ Tarleton State (11-5)	Tarleton State (73.8%)	08:00 PM	26
08:00 PM +3.8% EDGECLOSE Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State 9-6 vs 11-5 Abilene Christian 26.2% Tarleton State 73.8% Model Pick Tarleton State 73.8% Pick Spread Tarleton State -3.5 Home ML -270 Away ML +220 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.8% MODEL PROB 73.8% VEGAS TRUE 70.0% VEGAS JUICED 73.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Abilene Christian 66 vs Tarleton State 74 Total 139.4 Margin +7.8 Spread FAV COVERS @63% Diff +4.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 139.5 @50%
Utah Tech (9-7) @ California Baptist (10-6)	California Baptist (70.8%)	10:00 PM	29
10:00 PM Utah Tech @ California Baptist 9-7 vs 10-6 Utah Tech 29.2% California Baptist 70.8% Model Pick California Baptist 70.8% Pick Spread California Baptist -7.5 Home ML -460 Away ML +340 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -7.6% MODEL PROB 70.8% VEGAS TRUE 78.3% VEGAS JUICED 82.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Utah Tech 71 vs California Baptist 80 Total 150.8 Margin +9.6 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +2.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.2 @69%
Little Rock (5-10) @ SIU Edwardsville (10-6)	SIU Edwardsville (69.9%)	08:30 PM	30
08:30 PM +9.6% EDGECLOSE Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville 5-10 vs 10-6 Little Rock 30.1% SIU Edwardsville 69.9% Model Pick SIU Edwardsville 69.9% Pick Spread SIU Edwardsville -3.0 Home ML -168 Away ML +142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.6% MODEL PROB 69.9% VEGAS TRUE 60.3% VEGAS JUICED 62.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Little Rock 62 vs SIU Edwardsville 71 Total 132.7 Margin +9.7 Spread FAV COVERS @70% Diff +7.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 133.5 @52%
North Alabama (5-8) @ Eastern Kentucky (4-11)	Eastern Kentucky (69.0%)	07:00 PM	31
07:00 PM North Alabama @ Eastern Kentucky 5-8 vs 4-11 North Alabama 31.0% Eastern Kentucky 69.0% Model Pick Eastern Kentucky 69.0% Pick Spread Eastern Kentucky -5.5 Home ML -280 Away ML +230 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.9% MODEL PROB 69.0% VEGAS TRUE 70.9% VEGAS JUICED 73.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Alabama 68 vs Eastern Kentucky 77 Total 144.9 Margin +9.5 Spread FAV COVERS @62% Diff +4.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.5 @61%
Chicago State (1-13) @ Fairleigh Dickinson (4-11)	Fairleigh Dickinson (68.5%)	05:00 PM	32
05:00 PM +8.9% EDGE Chicago State @ Fairleigh Dickinson 1-13 vs 4-11 Chicago State 31.5% Fairleigh Dickinson 68.5% Model Pick Fairleigh Dickinson 68.5% Pick Spread Fairleigh Dickinson -4.5 Home ML -170 Away ML +135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.9% MODEL PROB 68.5% VEGAS TRUE 59.7% VEGAS JUICED 63.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Chicago State 66 vs Fairleigh Dickinson 78 Total 143.0 Margin +12.0 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.8 @52%
UNC Wilmington (14-2) @ Northeastern (5-9)	UNC Wilmington (68.4%)	07:00 PM	42
07:00 PM +9.1% EDGE UNC Wilmington @ Northeastern 14-2 vs 5-9 UNC Wilmington 68.4% Northeastern 31.6% Model Pick UNC Wilmington 68.4% Pick Spread UNC Wilmington -4.5 Home ML +136 Away ML -162 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.1% MODEL PROB 68.4% VEGAS TRUE 59.3% VEGAS JUICED 61.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UNC Wilmington 74 vs Northeastern 67 Total 140.6 Margin -6.6 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +2.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.5 @68%
North Dakota (8-10) @ Omaha (7-10)	Omaha (67.1%)	08:00 PM	33
08:00 PM North Dakota @ Omaha 8-10 vs 7-10 North Dakota 32.9% Omaha 67.1% Model Pick Omaha 67.1% Pick Spread Omaha -6.0 Home ML -250 Away ML +210 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.8% MODEL PROB 67.1% VEGAS TRUE 68.9% VEGAS JUICED 71.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Dakota 69 vs Omaha 76 Total 145.4 Margin +6.8 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +1.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.0 @55%
Pepperdine (5-12) @ San Diego (6-10)	San Diego (66.3%)	09:30 PM	34
09:30 PM +4.1% EDGE Pepperdine @ San Diego 5-12 vs 6-10 Pepperdine 33.7% San Diego 66.3% Model Pick San Diego 66.3% Pick Spread San Diego -4.5 Home ML -182 Away ML +155 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.1% MODEL PROB 66.3% VEGAS TRUE 62.2% VEGAS JUICED 64.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Pepperdine 67 vs San Diego 75 Total 141.9 Margin +7.9 Spread FAV COVERS @60% Diff +3.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.8 @67%
Elon (9-6) @ North Carolina A&T (7-7)	Elon (66.3%)	07:00 PM	34
07:00 PM Elon @ North Carolina A&T 9-6 vs 7-7 Elon 66.3% North Carolina A&T 33.7% Model Pick Elon 66.3% Pick Spread Elon -6.0 Home ML +190 Away ML -230 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.6% MODEL PROB 66.3% VEGAS TRUE 66.9% VEGAS JUICED 69.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Elon 81 vs North Carolina A&T 77 Total 157.9 Margin -3.5 Spread DOG COVERS @57% Diff -2.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.8 @59%
Montana State (8-7) @ Eastern Washington (2-12)	Montana State (66.2%)	09:00 PM	34
09:00 PM +9.0% EDGECLOSE Montana State @ Eastern Washington 8-7 vs 2-12 Montana State 66.2% Eastern Washington 33.8% Model Pick Montana State 66.2% Pick Spread Montana State -2.5 Home ML +124 Away ML -147 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.0% MODEL PROB 66.2% VEGAS TRUE 57.2% VEGAS JUICED 59.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Montana State 83 vs Eastern Washington 75 Total 158.2 Margin -7.8 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 155.5 @58%
Seattle U (12-5) @ Oregon State (8-9)	Seattle U (66.1%)	10:00 PM	44
10:00 PM +3.2% EDGE Seattle U @ Oregon State 12-5 vs 8-9 Seattle U 66.1% Oregon State 33.9% Model Pick Seattle U 66.1% Pick Spread Seattle U -4.5 Home ML +160 Away ML -188 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.2% MODEL PROB 66.1% VEGAS TRUE 62.9% VEGAS JUICED 65.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Seattle U 73 vs Oregon State 67 Total 139.6 Margin -5.8 Spread FAV COVERS @54% Diff +1.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 139.0 @52%
UL Monroe (3-13) @ Louisiana (3-13)	Louisiana (65.8%)	08:30 PM	34
08:30 PM UL Monroe @ Louisiana 3-13 vs 3-13 UL Monroe 34.2% Louisiana 65.8% Model Pick Louisiana 65.8% Pick Spread Louisiana -7.5 Home ML -278 Away ML +225 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -4.7% MODEL PROB 65.8% VEGAS TRUE 70.5% VEGAS JUICED 73.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UL Monroe 65 vs Louisiana 75 Total 139.8 Margin +10.6 Spread FAV COVERS @59% Diff +3.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 139.5 @51%
Old Dominion (4-12) @ Coastal Carolina (8-8)	Coastal Carolina (65.8%)	07:00 PM	34
07:00 PM +5.8% EDGE Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina 4-12 vs 8-8 Old Dominion 34.2% Coastal Carolina 65.8% Model Pick Coastal Carolina 65.8% Pick Spread Coastal Carolina -4.0 Home ML -166 Away ML +140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.8% MODEL PROB 65.8% VEGAS TRUE 60.0% VEGAS JUICED 62.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Old Dominion 72 vs Coastal Carolina 77 Total 149.1 Margin +4.3 Spread FAV COVERS @50% Diff +0.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.5 @52%
Stony Brook (9-7) @ Drexel (6-10)	Drexel (65.5%)	07:00 PM	34
07:00 PM Stony Brook @ Drexel 9-7 vs 6-10 Stony Brook 34.5% Drexel 65.5% Model Pick Drexel 65.5% Pick Spread Drexel -5.5 Home ML -197 Away ML +164 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.8% MODEL PROB 65.5% VEGAS TRUE 63.7% VEGAS JUICED 66.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Stony Brook 56 vs Drexel 71 Total 126.2 Margin +15.0 Spread FAV COVERS @77% Diff +9.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 131.8 @67%
Montana (8-7) @ Idaho (9-5)	Idaho (65.2%)	09:00 PM	35
09:00 PM Montana @ Idaho 8-7 vs 9-5 Montana 34.8% Idaho 65.2% Model Pick Idaho 65.2% Pick Spread Idaho -5.0 Home ML -185 Away ML +157 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.7% MODEL PROB 65.2% VEGAS TRUE 62.5% VEGAS JUICED 64.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Montana 75 vs Idaho 81 Total 155.9 Margin +5.3 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 153.5 @57%
UC Davis (8-6) @ UC Santa Barbara (9-6)	UC Santa Barbara (65.2%)	09:00 PM	35
09:00 PM +3.6% EDGE UC Davis @ UC Santa Barbara 8-6 vs 9-6 UC Davis 34.8% UC Santa Barbara 65.2% Model Pick UC Santa Barbara 65.2% Pick Spread UC Santa Barbara -5.0 Home ML -177 Away ML +151 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.6% MODEL PROB 65.2% VEGAS TRUE 61.6% VEGAS JUICED 64.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UC Davis 72 vs UC Santa Barbara 82 Total 153.7 Margin +9.3 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 147.8 @68%
Hampton (8-8) @ Campbell (8-8)	Campbell (64.3%)	07:00 PM	36
07:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Hampton @ Campbell 8-8 vs 8-8 Hampton 35.7% Campbell 64.3% Model Pick Campbell 64.3% Pick Spread Campbell -7.5 Home ML -310 Away ML +255 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -8.6% MODEL PROB 64.3% VEGAS TRUE 72.9% VEGAS JUICED 75.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Hampton 64 vs Campbell 69 Total 132.6 Margin +5.6 Spread DOG COVERS @56% Diff -1.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.5 @86%
UC Riverside (6-9) @ Cal State Bakersfield (7-9)	Cal State Bakersfield (63.4%)	09:30 PM	37
09:30 PM +6.2% EDGECLOSE UC Riverside @ Cal State Bakersfield 6-9 vs 7-9 UC Riverside 36.6% Cal State Bakersfield 63.4% Model Pick Cal State Bakersfield 63.4% Pick Spread Cal State Bakersfield -3.5 Home ML -148 Away ML +124 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.2% MODEL PROB 63.4% VEGAS TRUE 57.2% VEGAS JUICED 59.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UC Riverside 65 vs Cal State Bakersfield 78 Total 142.8 Margin +12.6 Spread FAV COVERS @76% Diff +9.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.5 @67%
Western Kentucky (9-5) @ New Mexico State (8-5)	New Mexico State (63.1%)	09:00 PM	57
09:00 PM +4.5% EDGECLOSE Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State 9-5 vs 8-5 Western Kentucky 36.9% New Mexico State 63.1% Model Pick New Mexico State 63.1% Pick Spread New Mexico State -2.5 Home ML -156 Away ML +132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.5% MODEL PROB 63.1% VEGAS TRUE 58.6% VEGAS JUICED 61.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Western Kentucky 72 vs New Mexico State 78 Total 149.6 Margin +5.6 Spread FAV COVERS @59% Diff +3.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.8 @65%
Middle Tennessee (9-5) @ UTEP (4-10)	Middle Tennessee (63.0%)	09:00 PM	37
09:00 PM Middle Tennessee @ UTEP 9-5 vs 4-10 Middle Tennessee 63.0% UTEP 37.0% Model Pick Middle Tennessee 63.0% Pick Spread Middle Tennessee -4.0 Home ML +150 Away ML -175 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.6% MODEL PROB 63.0% VEGAS TRUE 61.4% VEGAS JUICED 63.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Middle Tennessee 67 vs UTEP 62 Total 129.3 Margin -4.5 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 134.5 @66%
Idaho State (8-7) @ Northern Colorado (10-5)	Northern Colorado (62.4%)	08:00 PM	38
08:00 PM +6.2% EDGECLOSE Idaho State @ Northern Colorado 8-7 vs 10-5 Idaho State 37.6% Northern Colorado 62.4% Model Pick Northern Colorado 62.4% Pick Spread Northern Colorado -4.0 Home ML -140 Away ML +120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.2% MODEL PROB 62.4% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Idaho State 78 vs Northern Colorado 86 Total 164.2 Margin +7.8 Spread FAV COVERS @61% Diff +3.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 155.5 @75%
New Haven (6-9) @ Le Moyne (6-9)	Le Moyne (60.7%)	07:00 PM	39
07:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT New Haven @ Le Moyne 6-9 vs 6-9 New Haven 39.3% Le Moyne 60.7% Model Pick Le Moyne 60.7% Pick Spread Le Moyne -5.5 Home ML -225 Away ML +185 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -5.7% MODEL PROB 60.7% VEGAS TRUE 66.4% VEGAS JUICED 69.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Haven 60 vs Le Moyne 70 Total 129.7 Margin +9.7 Spread FAV COVERS @63% Diff +4.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 137.5 @73%
Liberty (11-3) @ Louisiana Tech (8-6)	Liberty (60.6%)	07:00 PM	49
07:00 PM Liberty @ Louisiana Tech 11-3 vs 8-6 Liberty 60.6% Louisiana Tech 39.4% Model Pick Liberty 60.6% Pick Spread Liberty -4.0 Home ML +210 Away ML -250 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -8.3% MODEL PROB 60.6% VEGAS TRUE 68.9% VEGAS JUICED 71.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Liberty 70 vs Louisiana Tech 63 Total 133.0 Margin -6.6 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 133.8 @52%
Texas State (9-7) @ Southern Miss (9-7)	Southern Miss (58.9%)	08:00 PM	41
08:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Texas State @ Southern Miss 9-7 vs 9-7 Texas State 41.1% Southern Miss 58.9% Model Pick Southern Miss 58.9% Pick Spread Southern Miss -3.0 Home ML -210 Away ML +175 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -6.1% MODEL PROB 58.9% VEGAS TRUE 65.1% VEGAS JUICED 67.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Texas State 68 vs Southern Miss 77 Total 144.7 Margin +8.5 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.5 @51%
Austin Peay (8-5) @ Florida Gulf Coast (7-8)	Florida Gulf Coast (57.4%)	07:00 PM	43
07:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Austin Peay @ Florida Gulf Coast 8-5 vs 7-8 Austin Peay 42.6% Florida Gulf Coast 57.4% Model Pick Florida Gulf Coast 57.4% Pick Spread Florida Gulf Coast -3.0 Home ML -165 Away ML +140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.5% MODEL PROB 57.4% VEGAS TRUE 59.9% VEGAS JUICED 62.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Austin Peay 73 vs Florida Gulf Coast 84 Total 156.6 Margin +11.0 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 153.8 @59%
Pacific (11-6) @ Portland (7-10)	Pacific (57.1%)	10:00 PM	43
10:00 PM CLOSE Pacific @ Portland 11-6 vs 7-10 Pacific 57.1% Portland 42.9% Model Pick Pacific 57.1% Pick Spread Pacific -2.5 Home ML +120 Away ML -140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.9% MODEL PROB 57.1% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Pacific 74 vs Portland 70 Total 143.9 Margin -4.3 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +1.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 145.0 @53%
William & Mary (11-4) @ Monmouth (7-8)	William & Mary (56.4%)	07:00 PM	54
07:00 PM CLOSE William & Mary @ Monmouth 11-4 vs 7-8 William & Mary 56.4% Monmouth 43.6% Model Pick William & Mary 56.4% Pick Spread William & Mary -2.5 Home ML +125 Away ML -146 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.8% MODEL PROB 56.4% VEGAS TRUE 57.2% VEGAS JUICED 59.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE William & Mary 75 vs Monmouth 68 Total 143.0 Margin -7.4 Spread FAV COVERS @65% Diff +4.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 156.5 @85%
Queens University (7-8) @ Jacksonville (5-10)	Jacksonville (56.0%) DOG	07:00 PM	44
07:00 PM UNDERDOG Queens University @ Jacksonville 7-8 vs 5-10 Queens University 44.0% Jacksonville 56.0% Model Pick Jacksonville 56.0% Pick Spread Jacksonville +5.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Queens University 80 vs Jacksonville 83 Total 163.2 Margin +2.8 Spread DOG COVERS @74% Diff +8.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 155.5 @72%
Ohio State (10-4) @ Oregon (8-7)	Oregon (55.5%)	10:30 PM	54
10:30 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Ohio State @ Oregon 10-4 vs 8-7 Ohio State 44.5% Oregon 55.5% Model Pick Oregon 55.5% Pick Spread Oregon -2.0 Home ML -143 Away ML +122 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.2% MODEL PROB 55.5% VEGAS TRUE 56.7% VEGAS JUICED 58.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Ohio State 66 vs Oregon 76 Total 142.6 Margin +10.0 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 152.8 @78%
App State (9-7) @ Georgia State (5-11)	App State (55.3%)	07:00 PM	45
07:00 PM CLOSE App State @ Georgia State 9-7 vs 5-11 App State 55.3% Georgia State 44.7% Model Pick App State 55.3% Pick Spread App State -1.0 Home ML +105 Away ML -122 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.3% MODEL PROB 55.3% VEGAS TRUE 53.0% VEGAS JUICED 55.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE App State 71 vs Georgia State 70 Total 141.5 Margin -1.1 Spread DOG COVERS @50% Diff -0.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 139.8 @55%
West Georgia (8-6) @ North Florida (2-13)	West Georgia (55.2%)	07:00 PM	45
07:00 PM CLOSE West Georgia @ North Florida 8-6 vs 2-13 West Georgia 55.2% North Florida 44.8% Model Pick West Georgia 55.2% Pick Spread West Georgia -2.5 Home ML +130 Away ML -150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.8% MODEL PROB 55.2% VEGAS TRUE 58.0% VEGAS JUICED 60.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE West Georgia 85 vs North Florida 83 Total 168.3 Margin -1.5 Spread DOG COVERS @53% Diff -1.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 165.0 @60%
UMass Lowell (6-10) @ Bryant (5-10)	Bryant (55.0%)	06:00 PM	45
06:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT UMass Lowell @ Bryant 6-10 vs 5-10 UMass Lowell 45.0% Bryant 55.0% Model Pick Bryant 55.0% Pick Spread Bryant -2.0 Home ML -140 Away ML +120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.2% MODEL PROB 55.0% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UMass Lowell 65 vs Bryant 73 Total 137.5 Margin +8.3 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.8 @68%
Central Arkansas (7-8) @ Bellarmine (5-9)	Central Arkansas (54.4%)	07:00 PM	46
07:00 PM CLOSE Central Arkansas @ Bellarmine 7-8 vs 5-9 Central Arkansas 54.4% Bellarmine 45.6% Model Pick Central Arkansas 54.4% Pick Spread Central Arkansas -2.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.8% MODEL PROB 54.4% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Central Arkansas 84 vs Bellarmine 78 Total 161.4 Margin -5.6 Spread FAV COVERS @60% Diff +3.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 154.2 @71%
San Francisco (11-6) @ Loyola Marymount (10-7)	Loyola Marymount (54.2%)	11:00 PM	46
11:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT San Francisco @ Loyola Marymount 11-6 vs 10-7 San Francisco 45.8% Loyola Marymount 54.2% Model Pick Loyola Marymount 54.2% Pick Spread Loyola Marymount +0.0 Home ML -112 Away ML -107 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.7% MODEL PROB 54.2% VEGAS TRUE 50.5% VEGAS JUICED 52.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE San Francisco 70 vs Loyola Marymount 73 Total 143.0 Margin +3.6 Spread FAV COVERS @60% Diff +3.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 140.2 @58%
UT Martin (11-4) @ Morehead State (7-8)	UT Martin (53.5%)	07:30 PM	56
07:30 PM CLOSE UT Martin @ Morehead State 11-4 vs 7-8 UT Martin 53.5% Morehead State 46.5% Model Pick UT Martin 53.5% Pick Spread UT Martin -3.0 Home ML +115 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.8% MODEL PROB 53.5% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Martin 70 vs Morehead State 65 Total 135.3 Margin -4.7 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +1.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 138.2 @59%
Weber State (7-8) @ Northern Arizona (6-9)	Weber State (53.2%)	08:00 PM	47
08:00 PM CLOSE Weber State @ Northern Arizona 7-8 vs 6-9 Weber State 53.2% Northern Arizona 46.8% Model Pick Weber State 53.2% Pick Spread Weber State -1.5 Home ML +107 Away ML -127 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.5% MODEL PROB 53.2% VEGAS TRUE 53.8% VEGAS JUICED 56.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Weber State 77 vs Northern Arizona 70 Total 146.3 Margin -6.9 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.5 @66%
Tennessee Tech (6-9) @ Eastern Illinois (4-10)	Tennessee Tech (53.0%)	08:30 PM	47
08:30 PM CLOSE Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois 6-9 vs 4-10 Tennessee Tech 53.0% Eastern Illinois 47.0% Model Pick Tennessee Tech 53.0% Pick Spread Tennessee Tech +0.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -120 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Tennessee Tech 71 vs Eastern Illinois 62 Total 133.4 Margin -8.6 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 140.2 @70%
Hofstra (12-4) @ Towson (8-9)	Towson (52.2%)	12:30 PM	58
12:30 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Hofstra @ Towson 12-4 vs 8-9 Hofstra 47.8% Towson 52.2% Model Pick Towson 52.2% Pick Spread Towson -2.0 Home ML -119 Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Hofstra 59 vs Towson 66 Total 125.2 Margin +6.6 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 133.2 @73%
New Hampshire (4-10) @ NJIT (6-10)	NJIT (50.7%) DOG	07:00 PM	49
07:00 PM CLOSEUNDERDOG New Hampshire @ NJIT 4-10 vs 6-10 New Hampshire 49.3% NJIT 50.7% Model Pick NJIT 50.7% Pick Spread NJIT +2.0 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.8% MODEL PROB 50.7% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Hampshire 64 vs NJIT 72 Total 136.9 Margin +7.9 Spread DOG COVERS @77% Diff +9.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 135.5 @54%

RECOMMENDED PICKS CRITERIA

Edge ≥ 4.0 pts • Spread ≤ 12 pts • Confidence ≥ 65%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
St. Francis (PA) (3-12) @ Wagner (6-7)	Wagner (81.1%)	07:00 PM	19
07:00 PM+8.8 PTS EDGE St. Francis (PA) @ Wagner 3-12 vs 6-7 St. Francis (PA) 18.9% Wagner 81.1% Model Pick Wagner (81.1%) Pick Spread Wagner -7.5 Home ML -420 Away ML +315 SPREAD EDGE +8.8 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +16.3 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE St. Francis (PA) 62 vs Wagner 79 Total 141.1 Margin +16.3 Spread FAV COVERS @75% Diff +8.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 144.5 @60%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Little Rock (5-10) @ SIU Edwardsville (10-6)	SIU Edwardsville (69.9%)	08:30 PM	30
08:30 PM+9.6% EDGE Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville 5-10 vs 10-6 Little Rock 30.1% SIU Edwardsville 69.9% Model Pick SIU Edwardsville 69.9% Pick Spread -3.0 Home ML -168 Away ML +142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.6% MODEL PROB 69.9% VEGAS TRUE 60.3% VEGAS JUICED 62.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Little Rock 62 vs SIU Edwardsville 71 Total 132.7 Margin +9.7 Spread FAV COVERS @70% Diff +7.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 133.5 @52%
UNC Wilmington (14-2) @ Northeastern (5-9)	UNC Wilmington (68.4%) DOG	07:00 PM	42
07:00 PM+9.1% EDGE UNC Wilmington @ Northeastern 14-2 vs 5-9 UNC Wilmington 68.4% Northeastern 31.6% Model Pick UNC Wilmington 68.4% Pick Spread +4.5 Home ML +136 Away ML -162 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.1% MODEL PROB 68.4% VEGAS TRUE 59.3% VEGAS JUICED 61.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UNC Wilmington 74 vs Northeastern 67 Total 140.6 Margin -6.6 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +2.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.5 @68%
Montana State (8-7) @ Eastern Washington (2-12)	Montana State (66.2%) DOG	09:00 PM	34
09:00 PM+9.0% EDGE Montana State @ Eastern Washington 8-7 vs 2-12 Montana State 66.2% Eastern Washington 33.8% Model Pick Montana State 66.2% Pick Spread +2.5 Home ML +124 Away ML -147 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.0% MODEL PROB 66.2% VEGAS TRUE 57.2% VEGAS JUICED 59.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Montana State 83 vs Eastern Washington 75 Total 158.2 Margin -7.8 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 155.5 @58%
Chicago State (1-13) @ Fairleigh Dickinson (4-11)	Fairleigh Dickinson (68.5%)	05:00 PM	32
05:00 PM+8.9% EDGE Chicago State @ Fairleigh Dickinson 1-13 vs 4-11 Chicago State 31.5% Fairleigh Dickinson 68.5% Model Pick Fairleigh Dickinson 68.5% Pick Spread -4.5 Home ML -170 Away ML +135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.9% MODEL PROB 68.5% VEGAS TRUE 59.7% VEGAS JUICED 63.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Chicago State 66 vs Fairleigh Dickinson 78 Total 143.0 Margin +12.0 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.8 @52%
Tennessee State (9-5) @ Western Illinois (4-11)	Tennessee State (77.3%) DOG	08:30 PM	23
08:30 PM+6.9% EDGE Tennessee State @ Western Illinois 9-5 vs 4-11 Tennessee State 77.3% Western Illinois 22.7% Model Pick Tennessee State 77.3% Pick Spread +6.5 Home ML +225 Away ML -275 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.9% MODEL PROB 77.3% VEGAS TRUE 70.4% VEGAS JUICED 73.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Tennessee State 75 vs Western Illinois 68 Total 142.8 Margin -6.4 Spread DOG COVERS @50% Diff -0.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.0 @60%
UC Riverside (6-9) @ Cal State Bakersfield (7-9)	Cal State Bakersfield (63.4%)	09:30 PM	37
09:30 PM+6.2% EDGE UC Riverside @ Cal State Bakersfield 6-9 vs 7-9 UC Riverside 36.6% Cal State Bakersfield 63.4% Model Pick Cal State Bakersfield 63.4% Pick Spread -3.5 Home ML -148 Away ML +124 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.2% MODEL PROB 63.4% VEGAS TRUE 57.2% VEGAS JUICED 59.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UC Riverside 65 vs Cal State Bakersfield 78 Total 142.8 Margin +12.6 Spread FAV COVERS @76% Diff +9.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.5 @67%
Idaho State (8-7) @ Northern Colorado (10-5)	Northern Colorado (62.4%)	08:00 PM	38
08:00 PM+6.2% EDGE Idaho State @ Northern Colorado 8-7 vs 10-5 Idaho State 37.6% Northern Colorado 62.4% Model Pick Northern Colorado 62.4% Pick Spread -4.0 Home ML -140 Away ML +120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.2% MODEL PROB 62.4% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Idaho State 78 vs Northern Colorado 86 Total 164.2 Margin +7.8 Spread FAV COVERS @61% Diff +3.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 155.5 @75%
Old Dominion (4-12) @ Coastal Carolina (8-8)	Coastal Carolina (65.8%)	07:00 PM	34
07:00 PM+5.8% EDGE Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina 4-12 vs 8-8 Old Dominion 34.2% Coastal Carolina 65.8% Model Pick Coastal Carolina 65.8% Pick Spread -4.0 Home ML -166 Away ML +140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.8% MODEL PROB 65.8% VEGAS TRUE 60.0% VEGAS JUICED 62.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Old Dominion 72 vs Coastal Carolina 77 Total 149.1 Margin +4.3 Spread FAV COVERS @50% Diff +0.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.5 @52%
Cal State Fullerton (6-10) @ UC San Diego (12-3)	UC San Diego (89.4%)	10:00 PM	21
10:00 PM+5.4% EDGE Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego 6-10 vs 12-3 Cal State Fullerton 10.6% UC San Diego 89.4% Model Pick UC San Diego 89.4% Pick Spread -13.5 Home ML -700 Away ML +500 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.4% MODEL PROB 89.4% VEGAS TRUE 84.0% VEGAS JUICED 87.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cal State Fullerton 68 vs UC San Diego 82 Total 150.2 Margin +14.0 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 166.5 @90%
Western Kentucky (9-5) @ New Mexico State (8-5)	New Mexico State (63.1%)	09:00 PM	57
09:00 PM+4.5% EDGE Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State 9-5 vs 8-5 Western Kentucky 36.9% New Mexico State 63.1% Model Pick New Mexico State 63.1% Pick Spread -2.5 Home ML -156 Away ML +132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.5% MODEL PROB 63.1% VEGAS TRUE 58.6% VEGAS JUICED 61.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Western Kentucky 72 vs New Mexico State 78 Total 149.6 Margin +5.6 Spread FAV COVERS @59% Diff +3.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.8 @65%
St. Francis (PA) (3-12) @ Wagner (6-7)	Wagner (81.1%)	07:00 PM	19
07:00 PM+4.1% EDGE St. Francis (PA) @ Wagner 3-12 vs 6-7 St. Francis (PA) 18.9% Wagner 81.1% Model Pick Wagner 81.1% Pick Spread -7.5 Home ML -420 Away ML +315 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.1% MODEL PROB 81.1% VEGAS TRUE 77.0% VEGAS JUICED 80.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE St. Francis (PA) 62 vs Wagner 79 Total 141.1 Margin +16.3 Spread FAV COVERS @75% Diff +8.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 144.5 @60%
Pepperdine (5-12) @ San Diego (6-10)	San Diego (66.3%)	09:30 PM	34
09:30 PM+4.1% EDGE Pepperdine @ San Diego 5-12 vs 6-10 Pepperdine 33.7% San Diego 66.3% Model Pick San Diego 66.3% Pick Spread -4.5 Home ML -182 Away ML +155 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.1% MODEL PROB 66.3% VEGAS TRUE 62.2% VEGAS JUICED 64.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Pepperdine 67 vs San Diego 75 Total 141.9 Margin +7.9 Spread FAV COVERS @60% Diff +3.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.8 @67%
Cal Poly (6-10) @ Cal State Northridge (9-7)	Cal State Northridge (74.8%)	10:00 PM	25
10:00 PM+3.9% EDGE Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge 6-10 vs 9-7 Cal Poly 25.2% Cal State Northridge 74.8% Model Pick Cal State Northridge 74.8% Pick Spread -7.5 Home ML -280 Away ML +230 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.9% MODEL PROB 74.8% VEGAS TRUE 70.9% VEGAS JUICED 73.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cal Poly 72 vs Cal State Northridge 80 Total 152.3 Margin +8.5 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +1.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 174.2 @95%
Abilene Christian (9-6) @ Tarleton State (11-5)	Tarleton State (73.8%)	08:00 PM	26
08:00 PM+3.8% EDGE Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State 9-6 vs 11-5 Abilene Christian 26.2% Tarleton State 73.8% Model Pick Tarleton State 73.8% Pick Spread -3.5 Home ML -270 Away ML +220 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.8% MODEL PROB 73.8% VEGAS TRUE 70.0% VEGAS JUICED 73.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Abilene Christian 66 vs Tarleton State 74 Total 139.4 Margin +7.8 Spread FAV COVERS @63% Diff +4.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 139.5 @50%
UC Davis (8-6) @ UC Santa Barbara (9-6)	UC Santa Barbara (65.2%)	09:00 PM	35
09:00 PM+3.6% EDGE UC Davis @ UC Santa Barbara 8-6 vs 9-6 UC Davis 34.8% UC Santa Barbara 65.2% Model Pick UC Santa Barbara 65.2% Pick Spread -5.0 Home ML -177 Away ML +151 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.6% MODEL PROB 65.2% VEGAS TRUE 61.6% VEGAS JUICED 64.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UC Davis 72 vs UC Santa Barbara 82 Total 153.7 Margin +9.3 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 147.8 @68%
Delaware (5-9) @ Sam Houston (8-6)	Sam Houston (89.3%)	07:30 PM	11
07:30 PM+3.5% EDGE Delaware @ Sam Houston 5-9 vs 8-6 Delaware 10.7% Sam Houston 89.3% Model Pick Sam Houston 89.3% Pick Spread -12.0 Home ML -900 Away ML +575 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.5% MODEL PROB 89.3% VEGAS TRUE 85.9% VEGAS JUICED 90.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Delaware 65 vs Sam Houston 74 Total 139.3 Margin +8.9 Spread DOG COVERS @59% Diff -2.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 144.5 @66%
Seattle U (12-5) @ Oregon State (8-9)	Seattle U (66.1%) DOG	10:00 PM	44
10:00 PM+3.2% EDGE Seattle U @ Oregon State 12-5 vs 8-9 Seattle U 66.1% Oregon State 33.9% Model Pick Seattle U 66.1% Pick Spread +4.5 Home ML +160 Away ML -188 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.2% MODEL PROB 66.1% VEGAS TRUE 62.9% VEGAS JUICED 65.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Seattle U 73 vs Oregon State 67 Total 139.6 Margin -5.8 Spread FAV COVERS @54% Diff +1.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 139.0 @52%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Abilene Christian (9-6) @ Tarleton State (11-5)	Tarleton State (73.8%)	08:00 PM	26
08:00 PMCLOSE Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State 9-6 vs 11-5 Abilene Christian 26.2% Tarleton State 73.8% Model Pick Tarleton State 73.8% Pick Spread Tarleton State -3.5 Home ML -270 Away ML +220 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.8% MODEL PROB 73.8% VEGAS TRUE 70.0% VEGAS JUICED 73.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Abilene Christian 66 vs Tarleton State 74 Total 139.4 Margin +7.8 Spread FAV COVERS @63% Diff +4.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 139.5 @50%
Little Rock (5-10) @ SIU Edwardsville (10-6)	SIU Edwardsville (69.9%)	08:30 PM	30
08:30 PMCLOSE Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville 5-10 vs 10-6 Little Rock 30.1% SIU Edwardsville 69.9% Model Pick SIU Edwardsville 69.9% Pick Spread SIU Edwardsville -3.0 Home ML -168 Away ML +142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.6% MODEL PROB 69.9% VEGAS TRUE 60.3% VEGAS JUICED 62.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Little Rock 62 vs SIU Edwardsville 71 Total 132.7 Margin +9.7 Spread FAV COVERS @70% Diff +7.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 133.5 @52%
Montana State (8-7) @ Eastern Washington (2-12)	Montana State (66.2%)	09:00 PM	34
09:00 PMCLOSE Montana State @ Eastern Washington 8-7 vs 2-12 Montana State 66.2% Eastern Washington 33.8% Model Pick Montana State 66.2% Pick Spread Montana State -2.5 Home ML +124 Away ML -147 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.0% MODEL PROB 66.2% VEGAS TRUE 57.2% VEGAS JUICED 59.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Montana State 83 vs Eastern Washington 75 Total 158.2 Margin -7.8 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 155.5 @58%
UC Riverside (6-9) @ Cal State Bakersfield (7-9)	Cal State Bakersfield (63.4%)	09:30 PM	37
09:30 PMCLOSE UC Riverside @ Cal State Bakersfield 6-9 vs 7-9 UC Riverside 36.6% Cal State Bakersfield 63.4% Model Pick Cal State Bakersfield 63.4% Pick Spread Cal State Bakersfield -3.5 Home ML -148 Away ML +124 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.2% MODEL PROB 63.4% VEGAS TRUE 57.2% VEGAS JUICED 59.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UC Riverside 65 vs Cal State Bakersfield 78 Total 142.8 Margin +12.6 Spread FAV COVERS @76% Diff +9.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.5 @67%
Western Kentucky (9-5) @ New Mexico State (8-5)	New Mexico State (63.1%)	09:00 PM	57
09:00 PMCLOSE Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State 9-5 vs 8-5 Western Kentucky 36.9% New Mexico State 63.1% Model Pick New Mexico State 63.1% Pick Spread New Mexico State -2.5 Home ML -156 Away ML +132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.5% MODEL PROB 63.1% VEGAS TRUE 58.6% VEGAS JUICED 61.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Western Kentucky 72 vs New Mexico State 78 Total 149.6 Margin +5.6 Spread FAV COVERS @59% Diff +3.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.8 @65%
Idaho State (8-7) @ Northern Colorado (10-5)	Northern Colorado (62.4%)	08:00 PM	38
08:00 PMCLOSE Idaho State @ Northern Colorado 8-7 vs 10-5 Idaho State 37.6% Northern Colorado 62.4% Model Pick Northern Colorado 62.4% Pick Spread Northern Colorado -4.0 Home ML -140 Away ML +120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.2% MODEL PROB 62.4% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Idaho State 78 vs Northern Colorado 86 Total 164.2 Margin +7.8 Spread FAV COVERS @61% Diff +3.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 155.5 @75%
Texas State (9-7) @ Southern Miss (9-7)	Southern Miss (58.9%)	08:00 PM	41
08:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Texas State @ Southern Miss 9-7 vs 9-7 Texas State 41.1% Southern Miss 58.9% Model Pick Southern Miss 58.9% Pick Spread Southern Miss -3.0 Home ML -210 Away ML +175 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -6.1% MODEL PROB 58.9% VEGAS TRUE 65.1% VEGAS JUICED 67.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Texas State 68 vs Southern Miss 77 Total 144.7 Margin +8.5 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.5 @51%
Austin Peay (8-5) @ Florida Gulf Coast (7-8)	Florida Gulf Coast (57.4%)	07:00 PM	43
07:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Austin Peay @ Florida Gulf Coast 8-5 vs 7-8 Austin Peay 42.6% Florida Gulf Coast 57.4% Model Pick Florida Gulf Coast 57.4% Pick Spread Florida Gulf Coast -3.0 Home ML -165 Away ML +140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.5% MODEL PROB 57.4% VEGAS TRUE 59.9% VEGAS JUICED 62.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Austin Peay 73 vs Florida Gulf Coast 84 Total 156.6 Margin +11.0 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 153.8 @59%
Pacific (11-6) @ Portland (7-10)	Pacific (57.1%)	10:00 PM	43
10:00 PMCLOSE Pacific @ Portland 11-6 vs 7-10 Pacific 57.1% Portland 42.9% Model Pick Pacific 57.1% Pick Spread Pacific -2.5 Home ML +120 Away ML -140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.9% MODEL PROB 57.1% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Pacific 74 vs Portland 70 Total 143.9 Margin -4.3 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +1.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 145.0 @53%
William & Mary (11-4) @ Monmouth (7-8)	William & Mary (56.4%)	07:00 PM	54
07:00 PMCLOSE William & Mary @ Monmouth 11-4 vs 7-8 William & Mary 56.4% Monmouth 43.6% Model Pick William & Mary 56.4% Pick Spread William & Mary -2.5 Home ML +125 Away ML -146 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.8% MODEL PROB 56.4% VEGAS TRUE 57.2% VEGAS JUICED 59.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE William & Mary 75 vs Monmouth 68 Total 143.0 Margin -7.4 Spread FAV COVERS @65% Diff +4.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 156.5 @85%
Ohio State (10-4) @ Oregon (8-7)	Oregon (55.5%)	10:30 PM	54
10:30 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Ohio State @ Oregon 10-4 vs 8-7 Ohio State 44.5% Oregon 55.5% Model Pick Oregon 55.5% Pick Spread Oregon -2.0 Home ML -143 Away ML +122 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.2% MODEL PROB 55.5% VEGAS TRUE 56.7% VEGAS JUICED 58.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Ohio State 66 vs Oregon 76 Total 142.6 Margin +10.0 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 152.8 @78%
App State (9-7) @ Georgia State (5-11)	App State (55.3%)	07:00 PM	45
07:00 PMCLOSE App State @ Georgia State 9-7 vs 5-11 App State 55.3% Georgia State 44.7% Model Pick App State 55.3% Pick Spread App State -1.0 Home ML +105 Away ML -122 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.3% MODEL PROB 55.3% VEGAS TRUE 53.0% VEGAS JUICED 55.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE App State 71 vs Georgia State 70 Total 141.5 Margin -1.1 Spread DOG COVERS @50% Diff -0.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 139.8 @55%
West Georgia (8-6) @ North Florida (2-13)	West Georgia (55.2%)	07:00 PM	45
07:00 PMCLOSE West Georgia @ North Florida 8-6 vs 2-13 West Georgia 55.2% North Florida 44.8% Model Pick West Georgia 55.2% Pick Spread West Georgia -2.5 Home ML +130 Away ML -150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.8% MODEL PROB 55.2% VEGAS TRUE 58.0% VEGAS JUICED 60.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE West Georgia 85 vs North Florida 83 Total 168.3 Margin -1.5 Spread DOG COVERS @53% Diff -1.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 165.0 @60%
UMass Lowell (6-10) @ Bryant (5-10)	Bryant (55.0%)	06:00 PM	45
06:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT UMass Lowell @ Bryant 6-10 vs 5-10 UMass Lowell 45.0% Bryant 55.0% Model Pick Bryant 55.0% Pick Spread Bryant -2.0 Home ML -140 Away ML +120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.2% MODEL PROB 55.0% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UMass Lowell 65 vs Bryant 73 Total 137.5 Margin +8.3 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.8 @68%
Central Arkansas (7-8) @ Bellarmine (5-9)	Central Arkansas (54.4%)	07:00 PM	46
07:00 PMCLOSE Central Arkansas @ Bellarmine 7-8 vs 5-9 Central Arkansas 54.4% Bellarmine 45.6% Model Pick Central Arkansas 54.4% Pick Spread Central Arkansas -2.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.8% MODEL PROB 54.4% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Central Arkansas 84 vs Bellarmine 78 Total 161.4 Margin -5.6 Spread FAV COVERS @60% Diff +3.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 154.2 @71%
San Francisco (11-6) @ Loyola Marymount (10-7)	Loyola Marymount (54.2%)	11:00 PM	46
11:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT San Francisco @ Loyola Marymount 11-6 vs 10-7 San Francisco 45.8% Loyola Marymount 54.2% Model Pick Loyola Marymount 54.2% Pick Spread Loyola Marymount +0.0 Home ML -112 Away ML -107 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.7% MODEL PROB 54.2% VEGAS TRUE 50.5% VEGAS JUICED 52.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE San Francisco 70 vs Loyola Marymount 73 Total 143.0 Margin +3.6 Spread FAV COVERS @60% Diff +3.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 140.2 @58%
UT Martin (11-4) @ Morehead State (7-8)	UT Martin (53.5%)	07:30 PM	56
07:30 PMCLOSE UT Martin @ Morehead State 11-4 vs 7-8 UT Martin 53.5% Morehead State 46.5% Model Pick UT Martin 53.5% Pick Spread UT Martin -3.0 Home ML +115 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.8% MODEL PROB 53.5% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Martin 70 vs Morehead State 65 Total 135.3 Margin -4.7 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +1.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 138.2 @59%
Weber State (7-8) @ Northern Arizona (6-9)	Weber State (53.2%)	08:00 PM	47
08:00 PMCLOSE Weber State @ Northern Arizona 7-8 vs 6-9 Weber State 53.2% Northern Arizona 46.8% Model Pick Weber State 53.2% Pick Spread Weber State -1.5 Home ML +107 Away ML -127 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.5% MODEL PROB 53.2% VEGAS TRUE 53.8% VEGAS JUICED 56.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Weber State 77 vs Northern Arizona 70 Total 146.3 Margin -6.9 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.5 @66%
Tennessee Tech (6-9) @ Eastern Illinois (4-10)	Tennessee Tech (53.0%)	08:30 PM	47
08:30 PMCLOSE Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois 6-9 vs 4-10 Tennessee Tech 53.0% Eastern Illinois 47.0% Model Pick Tennessee Tech 53.0% Pick Spread Tennessee Tech +0.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -120 XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Tennessee Tech 71 vs Eastern Illinois 62 Total 133.4 Margin -8.6 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 140.2 @70%
Hofstra (12-4) @ Towson (8-9)	Towson (52.2%)	12:30 PM	58
12:30 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Hofstra @ Towson 12-4 vs 8-9 Hofstra 47.8% Towson 52.2% Model Pick Towson 52.2% Pick Spread Towson -2.0 Home ML -119 Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Hofstra 59 vs Towson 66 Total 125.2 Margin +6.6 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 133.2 @73%
New Hampshire (4-10) @ NJIT (6-10)	NJIT (50.7%) DOG	07:00 PM	49
07:00 PMCLOSE New Hampshire @ NJIT 4-10 vs 6-10 New Hampshire 49.3% NJIT 50.7% Model Pick NJIT 50.7% Pick Spread NJIT +2.0 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.8% MODEL PROB 50.7% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Hampshire 64 vs NJIT 72 Total 136.9 Margin +7.9 Spread DOG COVERS @77% Diff +9.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 135.5 @54%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
Utah Tech @ California Baptist	Utah Tech DOG	29.2%	+340	⭐⭐⭐ +28.6%	10:00 PM
Hampton @ Campbell	Hampton DOG	35.7%	+255	⭐⭐⭐ +26.8%	07:00 PM
Louisiana Tech vs Liberty	Louisiana Tech DOG	39.4%	+210	⭐⭐⭐ +22.1%	07:00 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Little Rock (5-10) @ SIU Edwardsville (10-6)	SIU Edwardsville (69.9%)	+9.6%	08:30 PM	30
08:30 PM+9.6% EDGE Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville 5-10 vs 10-6 Little Rock 30.1% SIU Edwardsville 69.9% Model Pick SIU Edwardsville 69.9% Pick Spread -3.0 Home ML -168 Away ML +142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.6% MODEL PROB 69.9% VEGAS TRUE 60.3% VEGAS JUICED 62.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Little Rock 62 vs SIU Edwardsville 71 Total 132.7 Margin +9.7 Spread FAV COVERS @70% Diff +7.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 133.5 @52%
UNC Wilmington (14-2) @ Northeastern (5-9)	UNC Wilmington (68.4%)	+9.1%	07:00 PM	42
07:00 PM+9.1% EDGE UNC Wilmington @ Northeastern 14-2 vs 5-9 UNC Wilmington 68.4% Northeastern 31.6% Model Pick UNC Wilmington 68.4% Pick Spread +4.5 Home ML +136 Away ML -162 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.1% MODEL PROB 68.4% VEGAS TRUE 59.3% VEGAS JUICED 61.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UNC Wilmington 74 vs Northeastern 67 Total 140.6 Margin -6.6 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +2.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.5 @68%
Montana State (8-7) @ Eastern Washington (2-12)	Montana State (66.2%)	+9.0%	09:00 PM	34
09:00 PM+9.0% EDGE Montana State @ Eastern Washington 8-7 vs 2-12 Montana State 66.2% Eastern Washington 33.8% Model Pick Montana State 66.2% Pick Spread +2.5 Home ML +124 Away ML -147 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.0% MODEL PROB 66.2% VEGAS TRUE 57.2% VEGAS JUICED 59.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Montana State 83 vs Eastern Washington 75 Total 158.2 Margin -7.8 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 155.5 @58%
Chicago State (1-13) @ Fairleigh Dickinson (4-11)	Fairleigh Dickinson (68.5%)	+8.9%	05:00 PM	32
05:00 PM+8.9% EDGE Chicago State @ Fairleigh Dickinson 1-13 vs 4-11 Chicago State 31.5% Fairleigh Dickinson 68.5% Model Pick Fairleigh Dickinson 68.5% Pick Spread -4.5 Home ML -170 Away ML +135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.9% MODEL PROB 68.5% VEGAS TRUE 59.7% VEGAS JUICED 63.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Chicago State 66 vs Fairleigh Dickinson 78 Total 143.0 Margin +12.0 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.8 @52%
Tennessee State (9-5) @ Western Illinois (4-11)	Tennessee State (77.3%)	+6.9%	08:30 PM	23
08:30 PM+6.9% EDGE Tennessee State @ Western Illinois 9-5 vs 4-11 Tennessee State 77.3% Western Illinois 22.7% Model Pick Tennessee State 77.3% Pick Spread +6.5 Home ML +225 Away ML -275 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.9% MODEL PROB 77.3% VEGAS TRUE 70.4% VEGAS JUICED 73.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Tennessee State 75 vs Western Illinois 68 Total 142.8 Margin -6.4 Spread DOG COVERS @50% Diff -0.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.0 @60%
UC Riverside (6-9) @ Cal State Bakersfield (7-9)	Cal State Bakersfield (63.4%)	+6.2%	09:30 PM	37
09:30 PM+6.2% EDGE UC Riverside @ Cal State Bakersfield 6-9 vs 7-9 UC Riverside 36.6% Cal State Bakersfield 63.4% Model Pick Cal State Bakersfield 63.4% Pick Spread -3.5 Home ML -148 Away ML +124 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.2% MODEL PROB 63.4% VEGAS TRUE 57.2% VEGAS JUICED 59.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UC Riverside 65 vs Cal State Bakersfield 78 Total 142.8 Margin +12.6 Spread FAV COVERS @76% Diff +9.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.5 @67%
Idaho State (8-7) @ Northern Colorado (10-5)	Northern Colorado (62.4%)	+6.2%	08:00 PM	38
08:00 PM+6.2% EDGE Idaho State @ Northern Colorado 8-7 vs 10-5 Idaho State 37.6% Northern Colorado 62.4% Model Pick Northern Colorado 62.4% Pick Spread -4.0 Home ML -140 Away ML +120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.2% MODEL PROB 62.4% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Idaho State 78 vs Northern Colorado 86 Total 164.2 Margin +7.8 Spread FAV COVERS @61% Diff +3.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 155.5 @75%
Old Dominion (4-12) @ Coastal Carolina (8-8)	Coastal Carolina (65.8%)	+5.8%	07:00 PM	34
07:00 PM+5.8% EDGE Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina 4-12 vs 8-8 Old Dominion 34.2% Coastal Carolina 65.8% Model Pick Coastal Carolina 65.8% Pick Spread -4.0 Home ML -166 Away ML +140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.8% MODEL PROB 65.8% VEGAS TRUE 60.0% VEGAS JUICED 62.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Old Dominion 72 vs Coastal Carolina 77 Total 149.1 Margin +4.3 Spread FAV COVERS @50% Diff +0.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 148.5 @52%
Cal State Fullerton (6-10) @ UC San Diego (12-3)	UC San Diego (89.4%)	+5.4%	10:00 PM	21
10:00 PM+5.4% EDGE Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego 6-10 vs 12-3 Cal State Fullerton 10.6% UC San Diego 89.4% Model Pick UC San Diego 89.4% Pick Spread -13.5 Home ML -700 Away ML +500 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.4% MODEL PROB 89.4% VEGAS TRUE 84.0% VEGAS JUICED 87.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cal State Fullerton 68 vs UC San Diego 82 Total 150.2 Margin +14.0 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 166.5 @90%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level

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Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

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