Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Monday, February 16, 2026

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
Syracuse (15-11) @ Duke #4 (23-2)	Duke (96.8%)	07:00 PM	33
07:00 PM Syracuse @ Duke #4 15-11 vs 23-2 Syracuse 3.2% Duke 96.8% Model Pick Duke 96.8% Pick Spread Duke -19.5 Home ML -10000 Away ML +1600 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.4% MODEL PROB 96.8% VEGAS TRUE 94.4% VEGAS JUICED 99.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Syracuse 60 vs Duke 79 Total 139.5 Margin +18.7 Spread DOG COVERS @52% Diff -0.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.5 @59%
Mississippi Valley State (1-24) @ Alabama State (8-17)	Alabama State (89.4%)	07:00 PM	11
07:00 PM Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama State 1-24 vs 8-17 Mississippi Valley State 10.6% Alabama State 89.4% Model Pick Alabama State 89.4% Pick Spread Alabama State -16.0 Home ML -1800 Away ML +850 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.6% MODEL PROB 89.4% VEGAS TRUE 90.0% VEGAS JUICED 94.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Mississippi Valley State 62 vs Alabama State 83 Total 145.2 Margin +21.4 Spread FAV COVERS @67% Diff +5.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 142.2 @59%
Wagner (9-15) @ Long Island University (17-9)	Long Island University (83.9%)	07:00 PM	16
07:00 PM Wagner @ Long Island University 9-15 vs 17-9 Wagner 16.1% Long Island University 83.9% Model Pick Long Island University 83.9% Pick Spread Long Island University -11.0 Home ML -600 Away ML +425 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.0% MODEL PROB 83.9% VEGAS TRUE 81.8% VEGAS JUICED 85.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Wagner 57 vs Long Island University 70 Total 127.1 Margin +12.7 Spread FAV COVERS @55% Diff +1.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 137.5 @79%
McNeese (21-5) @ Northwestern State (8-18)	McNeese (79.5%)	07:30 PM	30
07:30 PM McNeese @ Northwestern State 21-5 vs 8-18 McNeese 79.5% Northwestern State 20.5% Model Pick McNeese 79.5% Pick Spread McNeese -14.0 Home ML +725 Away ML -1300 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -8.9% MODEL PROB 79.5% VEGAS TRUE 88.5% VEGAS JUICED 92.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE McNeese 72 vs Northwestern State 66 Total 139.0 Margin -6.0 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff -7.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.5 @55%
Howard (16-10) @ Delaware State (6-18)	Howard (79.3%)	07:00 PM	21
07:00 PM Howard @ Delaware State 16-10 vs 6-18 Howard 79.3% Delaware State 20.7% Model Pick Howard 79.3% Pick Spread Howard -12.0 Home ML +575 Away ML -900 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -6.5% MODEL PROB 79.3% VEGAS TRUE 85.9% VEGAS JUICED 90.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Howard 68 vs Delaware State 64 Total 132.4 Margin -4.6 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff -7.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 131.5 @53%
Lamar (12-14) @ UT Rio Grande Valley (14-12)	UT Rio Grande Valley (74.6%)	07:30 PM	25
07:30 PM +4.2% EDGE Lamar @ UT Rio Grande Valley 12-14 vs 14-12 Lamar 25.4% UT Rio Grande Valley 74.6% Model Pick UT Rio Grande Valley 74.6% Pick Spread UT Rio Grande Valley -7.0 Home ML -275 Away ML +225 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.2% MODEL PROB 74.6% VEGAS TRUE 70.4% VEGAS JUICED 73.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Lamar 62 vs UT Rio Grande Valley 72 Total 133.7 Margin +9.5 Spread FAV COVERS @58% Diff +2.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.2 @74%
Norfolk State (12-14) @ Maryland Eastern Shore (8-18)	Norfolk State (72.7%)	07:00 PM	27
07:00 PM CLOSE Norfolk State @ Maryland Eastern Shore 12-14 vs 8-18 Norfolk State 72.7% Maryland Eastern Shore 27.3% Model Pick Norfolk State 72.7% Pick Spread Norfolk State -1.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Norfolk State 70 vs Maryland Eastern Shore 63 Total 133.1 Margin -6.5 Spread FAV COVERS @65% Diff +5.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 137.5 @63%
Louisiana (9-17) @ Old Dominion (9-18)	Old Dominion (68.2%)	05:00 PM	32
05:00 PM Louisiana @ Old Dominion 9-17 vs 9-18 Louisiana 31.8% Old Dominion 68.2% Model Pick Old Dominion 68.2% Pick Spread Old Dominion -5.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Louisiana 61 vs Old Dominion 71 Total 132.2 Margin +10.0 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 135.5 @60%
Drexel (13-13) @ Stony Brook (15-11)	Stony Brook (68.1%)	08:00 PM	32
08:00 PM +6.7% EDGECLOSE Drexel @ Stony Brook 13-13 vs 15-11 Drexel 31.9% Stony Brook 68.1% Model Pick Stony Brook 68.1% Pick Spread Stony Brook -3.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.7% MODEL PROB 68.1% VEGAS TRUE 61.4% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Drexel 62 vs Stony Brook 72 Total 133.6 Margin +9.6 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 133.2 @51%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (11-14) @ Alabama A&M (14-11)	Alabama A&M (67.2%)	08:00 PM	33
08:00 PM +8.1% EDGECLOSE Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama A&M 11-14 vs 14-11 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 32.8% Alabama A&M 67.2% Model Pick Alabama A&M 67.2% Pick Spread Alabama A&M -3.5 Home ML -160 Away ML +135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.1% MODEL PROB 67.2% VEGAS TRUE 59.1% VEGAS JUICED 61.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Arkansas-Pine Bluff 69 vs Alabama A&M 75 Total 144.0 Margin +5.6 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +2.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.0 @59%
Stephen F. Austin (23-3) @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (14-12)	Stephen F. Austin (67.0%)	08:00 PM	43
08:00 PM Stephen F. Austin @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 23-3 vs 14-12 Stephen F. Austin 67.0% Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 33.0% Model Pick Stephen F. Austin 67.0% Pick Spread Stephen F. Austin -5.0 Home ML +240 Away ML -290 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -4.6% MODEL PROB 67.0% VEGAS TRUE 71.7% VEGAS JUICED 74.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Stephen F. Austin 74 vs Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 63 Total 136.6 Margin -11.2 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 135.8 @53%
New Orleans (12-15) @ Incarnate Word (10-16)	Incarnate Word (65.2%)	07:30 PM	35
07:30 PM +13.1% EDGECLOSE New Orleans @ Incarnate Word 12-15 vs 10-16 New Orleans 34.8% Incarnate Word 65.2% Model Pick Incarnate Word 65.2% Pick Spread Incarnate Word -1.0 Home ML -120 Away ML +100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.1% MODEL PROB 65.2% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Orleans 69 vs Incarnate Word 76 Total 144.3 Margin +6.7 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.8 @79%
Bethune-Cookman (13-12) @ Jackson State (8-17)	Bethune-Cookman (64.6%)	07:00 PM	35
07:00 PM Bethune-Cookman @ Jackson State 13-12 vs 8-17 Bethune-Cookman 64.6% Jackson State 35.4% Model Pick Bethune-Cookman 64.6% Pick Spread Bethune-Cookman -5.0 Home ML +180 Away ML -220 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.2% MODEL PROB 64.6% VEGAS TRUE 65.8% VEGAS JUICED 68.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Bethune-Cookman 78 vs Jackson State 69 Total 146.8 Margin -8.8 Spread FAV COVERS @61% Diff +3.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 149.8 @59%
Coppin State (5-21) @ South Carolina State (6-17)	South Carolina State (64.6%)	07:00 PM	35
07:00 PM Coppin State @ South Carolina State 5-21 vs 6-17 Coppin State 35.4% South Carolina State 64.6% Model Pick South Carolina State 64.6% Pick Spread South Carolina State -5.0 Home ML -201 Away ML +167 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.5% MODEL PROB 64.6% VEGAS TRUE 64.1% VEGAS JUICED 66.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Coppin State 62 vs South Carolina State 68 Total 129.8 Margin +6.4 Spread FAV COVERS @54% Diff +1.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.2 @83%
Abilene Christian (12-13) @ Tarleton State (12-13)	Tarleton State (63.9%)	08:00 PM	36
08:00 PM +9.7% EDGECLOSE Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State 12-13 vs 12-13 Abilene Christian 36.1% Tarleton State 63.9% Model Pick Tarleton State 63.9% Pick Spread Tarleton State -2.0 Home ML -130 Away ML +110 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.7% MODEL PROB 63.9% VEGAS TRUE 54.3% VEGAS JUICED 56.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Abilene Christian 62 vs Tarleton State 66 Total 128.3 Margin +4.7 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 135.2 @70%
Morgan State (10-13) @ North Carolina Central (9-14)	North Carolina Central (59.9%)	07:00 PM	40
07:00 PM Morgan State @ North Carolina Central 10-13 vs 9-14 Morgan State 40.1% North Carolina Central 59.9% Model Pick North Carolina Central 59.9% Pick Spread North Carolina Central -4.0 Home ML -165 Away ML +140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.0% MODEL PROB 59.9% VEGAS TRUE 59.9% VEGAS JUICED 62.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Morgan State 68 vs North Carolina Central 77 Total 144.7 Margin +9.5 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 150.5 @67%
Southern (12-13) @ Texas Southern (8-15)	Southern (58.4%)	08:00 PM	42
08:00 PM CLOSE Southern @ Texas Southern 12-13 vs 8-15 Southern 58.4% Texas Southern 41.6% Model Pick Southern 58.4% Pick Spread Southern -3.0 Home ML +125 Away ML -145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.2% MODEL PROB 58.4% VEGAS TRUE 57.1% VEGAS JUICED 59.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Southern 83 vs Texas Southern 74 Total 156.2 Margin -9.2 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 151.8 @63%
Colgate (16-11) @ Boston University (12-15)	Colgate (56.9%)	06:00 PM	43
06:00 PM CLOSE Colgate @ Boston University 16-11 vs 12-15 Colgate 56.9% Boston University 43.1% Model Pick Colgate 56.9% Pick Spread Colgate -2.5 Home ML +110 Away ML -130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.6% MODEL PROB 56.9% VEGAS TRUE 54.3% VEGAS JUICED 56.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Colgate 81 vs Boston University 74 Total 155.5 Margin -6.7 Spread FAV COVERS @63% Diff +4.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.2 @81%
South Alabama (19-7) @ Marshall (16-10)	Marshall (55.8%)	07:00 PM	64
07:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT South Alabama @ Marshall 19-7 vs 16-10 South Alabama 44.2% Marshall 55.8% Model Pick Marshall 55.8% Pick Spread Marshall -4.0 Home ML -170 Away ML +145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -4.9% MODEL PROB 55.8% VEGAS TRUE 60.7% VEGAS JUICED 63.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE South Alabama 72 vs Marshall 80 Total 152.5 Margin +7.7 Spread FAV COVERS @62% Diff +4.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 149.2 @60%
Houston #3 (23-2) @ Iowa State #5 (22-3)	Iowa State (54.8%)	09:00 PM	100
09:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Houston #3 @ Iowa State #5 23-2 vs 22-3 Houston 45.2% Iowa State 54.8% Model Pick Iowa State 54.8% Pick Spread Iowa State -2.5 Home ML -135 Away ML +115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.4% MODEL PROB 54.8% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston 58 vs Iowa State 69 Total 127.4 Margin +11.0 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 134.8 @71%
SE Louisiana (8-18) @ East Texas A&M (10-17)	East Texas A&M (53.5%)	02:00 PM	46
02:00 PM CLOSE SE Louisiana @ East Texas A&M 8-18 vs 10-17 SE Louisiana 46.5% East Texas A&M 53.5% Model Pick East Texas A&M 53.5% Pick Spread East Texas A&M -2.0 Home ML -130 Away ML +110 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.8% MODEL PROB 53.5% VEGAS TRUE 54.3% VEGAS JUICED 56.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE SE Louisiana 65 vs East Texas A&M 67 Total 131.8 Margin +1.6 Spread DOG COVERS @50% Diff -0.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 135.8 @62%
Florida A&M (8-14) @ Alcorn State (6-18)	Florida A&M (51.6%) DOG	08:00 PM	48
08:00 PM CLOSEUNDERDOG Florida A&M @ Alcorn State 8-14 vs 6-18 Florida A&M 51.6% Alcorn State 48.4% Model Pick Florida A&M 51.6% Pick Spread Florida A&M +1.0 Home ML -115 Away ML -105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.6% MODEL PROB 51.6% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Florida A&M 70 vs Alcorn State 65 Total 134.5 Margin -5.3 Spread DOG COVERS @69% Diff +6.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 137.5 @59%
Nicholls (11-15) @ Houston Christian (9-17)	Houston Christian (51.3%) DOG	08:00 PM	49
08:00 PM CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT Nicholls @ Houston Christian 11-15 vs 9-17 Nicholls 48.7% Houston Christian 51.3% Model Pick Houston Christian 51.3% Pick Spread Houston Christian +2.0 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.4% MODEL PROB 51.3% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Nicholls 68 vs Houston Christian 75 Total 142.6 Margin +7.4 Spread DOG COVERS @77% Diff +9.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 142.5 @50%
Grambling (11-13) @ Prairie View A&M (9-16)	Prairie View A&M (50.6%) DOG	07:00 PM	49
07:00 PM CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT Grambling @ Prairie View A&M 11-13 vs 9-16 Grambling 49.4% Prairie View A&M 50.6% Model Pick Prairie View A&M 50.6% Pick Spread Prairie View A&M +2.5 Home ML +125 Away ML -145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.7% MODEL PROB 50.6% VEGAS TRUE 42.9% VEGAS JUICED 44.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Grambling 70 vs Prairie View A&M 75 Total 145.6 Margin +4.6 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.2 @67%

TIERED RECOMMENDATION SYSTEM

⭐ PREMIUM: 80%+ conf, 5+ edge (88.5% win, 69.1% ROI) • ✓ GOOD: 75%+ conf, 7+ edge (82.7% win, 57.9% ROI)

Based on 4,181 game analysis • Updated Feb 9, 2026

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
New Orleans (12-15) @ Incarnate Word (10-16)	Incarnate Word (65.2%)	07:30 PM	35
07:30 PM+13.1% EDGE New Orleans @ Incarnate Word 12-15 vs 10-16 New Orleans 34.8% Incarnate Word 65.2% Model Pick Incarnate Word 65.2% Pick Spread -1.0 Home ML -120 Away ML +100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.1% MODEL PROB 65.2% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Orleans 69 vs Incarnate Word 76 Total 144.3 Margin +6.7 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.8 @79%
Abilene Christian (12-13) @ Tarleton State (12-13)	Tarleton State (63.9%)	08:00 PM	36
08:00 PM+9.7% EDGE Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State 12-13 vs 12-13 Abilene Christian 36.1% Tarleton State 63.9% Model Pick Tarleton State 63.9% Pick Spread -2.0 Home ML -130 Away ML +110 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.7% MODEL PROB 63.9% VEGAS TRUE 54.3% VEGAS JUICED 56.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Abilene Christian 62 vs Tarleton State 66 Total 128.3 Margin +4.7 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 135.2 @70%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (11-14) @ Alabama A&M (14-11)	Alabama A&M (67.2%)	08:00 PM	33
08:00 PM+8.1% EDGE Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama A&M 11-14 vs 14-11 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 32.8% Alabama A&M 67.2% Model Pick Alabama A&M 67.2% Pick Spread -3.5 Home ML -160 Away ML +135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.1% MODEL PROB 67.2% VEGAS TRUE 59.1% VEGAS JUICED 61.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Arkansas-Pine Bluff 69 vs Alabama A&M 75 Total 144.0 Margin +5.6 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +2.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.0 @59%
Drexel (13-13) @ Stony Brook (15-11)	Stony Brook (68.1%)	08:00 PM	32
08:00 PM+6.7% EDGE Drexel @ Stony Brook 13-13 vs 15-11 Drexel 31.9% Stony Brook 68.1% Model Pick Stony Brook 68.1% Pick Spread -3.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.7% MODEL PROB 68.1% VEGAS TRUE 61.4% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Drexel 62 vs Stony Brook 72 Total 133.6 Margin +9.6 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 133.2 @51%
Lamar (12-14) @ UT Rio Grande Valley (14-12)	UT Rio Grande Valley (74.6%)	07:30 PM	25
07:30 PM+4.2% EDGE Lamar @ UT Rio Grande Valley 12-14 vs 14-12 Lamar 25.4% UT Rio Grande Valley 74.6% Model Pick UT Rio Grande Valley 74.6% Pick Spread -7.0 Home ML -275 Away ML +225 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.2% MODEL PROB 74.6% VEGAS TRUE 70.4% VEGAS JUICED 73.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Lamar 62 vs UT Rio Grande Valley 72 Total 133.7 Margin +9.5 Spread FAV COVERS @58% Diff +2.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.2 @74%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Norfolk State (12-14) @ Maryland Eastern Shore (8-18)	Norfolk State (72.7%)	07:00 PM	27
07:00 PMCLOSE Norfolk State @ Maryland Eastern Shore 12-14 vs 8-18 Norfolk State 72.7% Maryland Eastern Shore 27.3% Model Pick Norfolk State 72.7% Pick Spread Norfolk State -1.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Norfolk State 70 vs Maryland Eastern Shore 63 Total 133.1 Margin -6.5 Spread FAV COVERS @65% Diff +5.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 137.5 @63%
Drexel (13-13) @ Stony Brook (15-11)	Stony Brook (68.1%)	08:00 PM	32
08:00 PMCLOSE Drexel @ Stony Brook 13-13 vs 15-11 Drexel 31.9% Stony Brook 68.1% Model Pick Stony Brook 68.1% Pick Spread Stony Brook -3.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.7% MODEL PROB 68.1% VEGAS TRUE 61.4% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Drexel 62 vs Stony Brook 72 Total 133.6 Margin +9.6 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 133.2 @51%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (11-14) @ Alabama A&M (14-11)	Alabama A&M (67.2%)	08:00 PM	33
08:00 PMCLOSE Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama A&M 11-14 vs 14-11 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 32.8% Alabama A&M 67.2% Model Pick Alabama A&M 67.2% Pick Spread Alabama A&M -3.5 Home ML -160 Away ML +135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.1% MODEL PROB 67.2% VEGAS TRUE 59.1% VEGAS JUICED 61.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Arkansas-Pine Bluff 69 vs Alabama A&M 75 Total 144.0 Margin +5.6 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +2.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.0 @59%
New Orleans (12-15) @ Incarnate Word (10-16)	Incarnate Word (65.2%)	07:30 PM	35
07:30 PMCLOSE New Orleans @ Incarnate Word 12-15 vs 10-16 New Orleans 34.8% Incarnate Word 65.2% Model Pick Incarnate Word 65.2% Pick Spread Incarnate Word -1.0 Home ML -120 Away ML +100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.1% MODEL PROB 65.2% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Orleans 69 vs Incarnate Word 76 Total 144.3 Margin +6.7 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.8 @79%
Abilene Christian (12-13) @ Tarleton State (12-13)	Tarleton State (63.9%)	08:00 PM	36
08:00 PMCLOSE Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State 12-13 vs 12-13 Abilene Christian 36.1% Tarleton State 63.9% Model Pick Tarleton State 63.9% Pick Spread Tarleton State -2.0 Home ML -130 Away ML +110 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.7% MODEL PROB 63.9% VEGAS TRUE 54.3% VEGAS JUICED 56.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Abilene Christian 62 vs Tarleton State 66 Total 128.3 Margin +4.7 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 135.2 @70%
Southern (12-13) @ Texas Southern (8-15)	Southern (58.4%)	08:00 PM	42
08:00 PMCLOSE Southern @ Texas Southern 12-13 vs 8-15 Southern 58.4% Texas Southern 41.6% Model Pick Southern 58.4% Pick Spread Southern -3.0 Home ML +125 Away ML -145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.2% MODEL PROB 58.4% VEGAS TRUE 57.1% VEGAS JUICED 59.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Southern 83 vs Texas Southern 74 Total 156.2 Margin -9.2 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 151.8 @63%
Colgate (16-11) @ Boston University (12-15)	Colgate (56.9%)	06:00 PM	43
06:00 PMCLOSE Colgate @ Boston University 16-11 vs 12-15 Colgate 56.9% Boston University 43.1% Model Pick Colgate 56.9% Pick Spread Colgate -2.5 Home ML +110 Away ML -130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.6% MODEL PROB 56.9% VEGAS TRUE 54.3% VEGAS JUICED 56.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Colgate 81 vs Boston University 74 Total 155.5 Margin -6.7 Spread FAV COVERS @63% Diff +4.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.2 @81%
Houston #3 (23-2) @ Iowa State #5 (22-3)	Iowa State (54.8%)	09:00 PM	100
09:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Houston #3 @ Iowa State #5 23-2 vs 22-3 Houston 45.2% Iowa State 54.8% Model Pick Iowa State 54.8% Pick Spread Iowa State -2.5 Home ML -135 Away ML +115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.4% MODEL PROB 54.8% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston 58 vs Iowa State 69 Total 127.4 Margin +11.0 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 134.8 @71%
SE Louisiana (8-18) @ East Texas A&M (10-17)	East Texas A&M (53.5%)	02:00 PM	46
02:00 PMCLOSE SE Louisiana @ East Texas A&M 8-18 vs 10-17 SE Louisiana 46.5% East Texas A&M 53.5% Model Pick East Texas A&M 53.5% Pick Spread East Texas A&M -2.0 Home ML -130 Away ML +110 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.8% MODEL PROB 53.5% VEGAS TRUE 54.3% VEGAS JUICED 56.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE SE Louisiana 65 vs East Texas A&M 67 Total 131.8 Margin +1.6 Spread DOG COVERS @50% Diff -0.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 135.8 @62%
Florida A&M (8-14) @ Alcorn State (6-18)	Florida A&M (51.6%) DOG	08:00 PM	48
08:00 PMCLOSE Florida A&M @ Alcorn State 8-14 vs 6-18 Florida A&M 51.6% Alcorn State 48.4% Model Pick Florida A&M 51.6% Pick Spread Florida A&M +1.0 Home ML -115 Away ML -105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.6% MODEL PROB 51.6% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Florida A&M 70 vs Alcorn State 65 Total 134.5 Margin -5.3 Spread DOG COVERS @69% Diff +6.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 137.5 @59%
Nicholls (11-15) @ Houston Christian (9-17)	Houston Christian (51.3%) DOG	08:00 PM	49
08:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Nicholls @ Houston Christian 11-15 vs 9-17 Nicholls 48.7% Houston Christian 51.3% Model Pick Houston Christian 51.3% Pick Spread Houston Christian +2.0 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.4% MODEL PROB 51.3% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Nicholls 68 vs Houston Christian 75 Total 142.6 Margin +7.4 Spread DOG COVERS @77% Diff +9.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 142.5 @50%
Grambling (11-13) @ Prairie View A&M (9-16)	Prairie View A&M (50.6%) DOG	07:00 PM	49
07:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Grambling @ Prairie View A&M 11-13 vs 9-16 Grambling 49.4% Prairie View A&M 50.6% Model Pick Prairie View A&M 50.6% Pick Spread Prairie View A&M +2.5 Home ML +125 Away ML -145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.7% MODEL PROB 50.6% VEGAS TRUE 42.9% VEGAS JUICED 44.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Grambling 70 vs Prairie View A&M 75 Total 145.6 Margin +4.6 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.2 @67%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Grambling (11-13) @ Prairie View A&M (9-16)	Prairie View A&M (50.6%) DOG	+7.7%	07:00 PM	49
07:00 PMUNDERDOG MLSIGNAL CONFLICT Grambling @ Prairie View A&M 11-13 vs 9-16 Grambling 49.4% Prairie View A&M 50.6% Model Pick Prairie View A&M 50.6% Pick Spread Prairie View A&M +2.5 Home ML +125 Away ML -145 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.7% MODEL PROB 50.6% VEGAS TRUE 42.9% VEGAS JUICED 44.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Grambling 70 vs Prairie View A&M 75 Total 145.6 Margin +4.6 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.2 @67%

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
Northwestern State vs McNeese	Northwestern State DOG	20.5%	+725	⭐⭐⭐ +69.0%	07:30 PM
Delaware State vs Howard	Delaware State DOG	20.7%	+575	⭐⭐⭐ +39.5%	07:00 PM
Incarnate Word vs New Orleans	Incarnate Word FAV	65.2%	-120	⭐⭐ +19.6%	07:30 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
New Orleans (12-15) @ Incarnate Word (10-16)	Incarnate Word (65.2%)	+13.1%	07:30 PM	35
07:30 PM+13.1% EDGE New Orleans @ Incarnate Word 12-15 vs 10-16 New Orleans 34.8% Incarnate Word 65.2% Model Pick Incarnate Word 65.2% Pick Spread -1.0 Home ML -120 Away ML +100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.1% MODEL PROB 65.2% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Orleans 69 vs Incarnate Word 76 Total 144.3 Margin +6.7 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.8 @79%
Abilene Christian (12-13) @ Tarleton State (12-13)	Tarleton State (63.9%)	+9.7%	08:00 PM	36
08:00 PM+9.7% EDGE Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State 12-13 vs 12-13 Abilene Christian 36.1% Tarleton State 63.9% Model Pick Tarleton State 63.9% Pick Spread -2.0 Home ML -130 Away ML +110 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.7% MODEL PROB 63.9% VEGAS TRUE 54.3% VEGAS JUICED 56.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Abilene Christian 62 vs Tarleton State 66 Total 128.3 Margin +4.7 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 135.2 @70%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (11-14) @ Alabama A&M (14-11)	Alabama A&M (67.2%)	+8.1%	08:00 PM	33
08:00 PM+8.1% EDGE Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama A&M 11-14 vs 14-11 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 32.8% Alabama A&M 67.2% Model Pick Alabama A&M 67.2% Pick Spread -3.5 Home ML -160 Away ML +135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +8.1% MODEL PROB 67.2% VEGAS TRUE 59.1% VEGAS JUICED 61.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Arkansas-Pine Bluff 69 vs Alabama A&M 75 Total 144.0 Margin +5.6 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +2.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.0 @59%
Drexel (13-13) @ Stony Brook (15-11)	Stony Brook (68.1%)	+6.7%	08:00 PM	32
08:00 PM+6.7% EDGE Drexel @ Stony Brook 13-13 vs 15-11 Drexel 31.9% Stony Brook 68.1% Model Pick Stony Brook 68.1% Pick Spread -3.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.7% MODEL PROB 68.1% VEGAS TRUE 61.4% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Drexel 62 vs Stony Brook 72 Total 133.6 Margin +9.6 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 133.2 @51%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
New Orleans (12-15) @ Incarnate Word (10-16)	Incarnate Word (65.2%)	+13.1%	07:30 PM	35
07:30 PM+13.1% EDGE New Orleans @ Incarnate Word 12-15 vs 10-16 New Orleans 34.8% Incarnate Word 65.2% Model Pick Incarnate Word 65.2% Pick Spread -1.0 Home ML -120 Away ML +100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.1% MODEL PROB 65.2% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Orleans 69 vs Incarnate Word 76 Total 144.3 Margin +6.7 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.8 @79%

Model Information

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Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

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