Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Monday, February 23, 2026

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
New Orleans (14-15) @ Stephen F. Austin (25-3)	Stephen F. Austin (89.1%)	07:30 PM	21
07:30 PM New Orleans @ Stephen F. Austin 14-15 vs 25-3 New Orleans 10.9% Stephen F. Austin 89.1% Model Pick Stephen F. Austin 89.1% Pick Spread Stephen F. Austin -11.5 Home ML -1100 Away ML +650 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.8% MODEL PROB 89.1% VEGAS TRUE 87.3% VEGAS JUICED 91.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Orleans 73 vs Stephen F. Austin 78 Total 150.5 Margin +4.5 Spread DOG COVERS @70% Diff -7.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 153.2 @58%
Mississippi Valley State (2-26) @ Grambling (11-15)	Grambling (83.7%)	08:00 PM	16
08:00 PM Mississippi Valley State @ Grambling 2-26 vs 11-15 Mississippi Valley State 16.3% Grambling 83.7% Model Pick Grambling 83.7% Pick Spread Grambling -16.5 Home ML -4000 Away ML +1200 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -9.0% MODEL PROB 83.7% VEGAS TRUE 92.7% VEGAS JUICED 97.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Mississippi Valley State 60 vs Grambling 77 Total 137.6 Margin +16.8 Spread FAV COVERS @51% Diff +0.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.0 @52%
Houston #5 (23-4) @ Kansas #14 (20-7)	Houston (79.0%)	09:00 PM	71
09:00 PM +22.8% EDGECLOSE Houston #5 @ Kansas #14 23-4 vs 20-7 Houston 79.0% Kansas 21.0% Model Pick Houston 79.0% Pick Spread Houston -2.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +22.8% MODEL PROB 79.0% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston 68 vs Kansas 73 Total 141.0 Margin +5.4 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.0 @59%
Nicholls (11-17) @ Lamar (12-16)	Lamar (71.1%)	07:00 PM	29
07:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Nicholls @ Lamar 11-17 vs 12-16 Nicholls 28.9% Lamar 71.1% Model Pick Lamar 71.1% Pick Spread Lamar -3.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.7% MODEL PROB 71.1% VEGAS TRUE 61.4% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Nicholls 73 vs Lamar 73 Total 145.5 Margin +0.3 Spread DOG COVERS @60% Diff -3.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 143.8 @55%
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (14-14) @ SE Louisiana (8-20)	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (71.1%)	07:00 PM	29
07:00 PM +13.1% EDGECLOSE Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ SE Louisiana 14-14 vs 8-20 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 71.1% SE Louisiana 28.9% Model Pick Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 71.1% Pick Spread Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.1% MODEL PROB 71.1% VEGAS TRUE 58.0% VEGAS JUICED 60.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 62 vs SE Louisiana 68 Total 129.8 Margin +6.8 Spread DOG COVERS @74% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 130.5 @52%
Houston Christian (10-18) @ East Texas A&M (11-18)	Houston Christian (59.5%) DOG	07:30 PM	40
07:30 PM +17.4% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M 10-18 vs 11-18 Houston Christian 59.5% East Texas A&M 40.5% Model Pick Houston Christian 59.5% Pick Spread Houston Christian +2.5 Home ML -150 Away ML +130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +17.4% MODEL PROB 59.5% VEGAS TRUE 42.0% VEGAS JUICED 43.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston Christian 68 vs East Texas A&M 69 Total 137.1 Margin +1.1 Spread DOG COVERS @54% Diff -1.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 138.5 @54%
Incarnate Word (11-17) @ Northwestern State (9-19)	Incarnate Word (56.4%) DOG	07:30 PM	44
07:30 PM +13.5% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG Incarnate Word @ Northwestern State 11-17 vs 9-19 Incarnate Word 56.4% Northwestern State 43.6% Model Pick Incarnate Word 56.4% Pick Spread Incarnate Word +2.0 Home ML -145 Away ML +125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.5% MODEL PROB 56.4% VEGAS TRUE 42.9% VEGAS JUICED 44.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Incarnate Word 67 vs Northwestern State 72 Total 138.3 Margin +4.7 Spread FAV COVERS @59% Diff +2.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.2 @50%
UT Rio Grande Valley (16-12) @ McNeese (23-5)	UT Rio Grande Valley (55.3%) DOG	07:30 PM	55
07:30 PM +39.4% EDGEUNDERDOG UT Rio Grande Valley @ McNeese 16-12 vs 23-5 UT Rio Grande Valley 55.3% McNeese 44.7% Model Pick UT Rio Grande Valley 55.3% Pick Spread UT Rio Grande Valley +12.0 Home ML -750 Away ML +500 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +39.4% MODEL PROB 55.3% VEGAS TRUE 15.9% VEGAS JUICED 16.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Rio Grande Valley 71 vs McNeese 75 Total 146.4 Margin +3.8 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff -8.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.0 @52%
Louisville #24 (20-7) @ North Carolina #18 (21-6)	North Carolina (53.8%) DOG	07:00 PM	96
07:00 PM CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT Louisville #24 @ North Carolina #18 20-7 vs 21-6 Louisville 46.2% North Carolina 53.8% Model Pick North Carolina 53.8% Pick Spread North Carolina +3.5 Home ML +120 Away ML -140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.0% MODEL PROB 53.8% VEGAS TRUE 43.8% VEGAS JUICED 45.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Louisville 79 vs North Carolina 73 Total 152.1 Margin -5.7 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 162.5 @79%

TIERED RECOMMENDATION SYSTEM

⭐ PREMIUM: 80%+ conf, 5+ edge (88.5% win, 69.1% ROI) • ✓ GOOD: 75%+ conf, 7+ edge (82.7% win, 57.9% ROI)

Based on 4,181 game analysis • Updated Feb 9, 2026

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Houston #5 (23-4) @ Kansas #14 (20-7)	Houston (79.0%) ✓ GOOD	09:00 PM	71
09:00 PM+7.2 PTS EDGE Houston #5 @ Kansas #14 23-4 vs 20-7 Houston 79.0% Kansas 21.0% Model Pick Houston (79.0%) Pick Spread Houston -2.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -140 SPREAD EDGE +7.2 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +5.4 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston 68 vs Kansas 73 Total 141.0 Margin +5.4 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.0 @59%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
UT Rio Grande Valley (16-12) @ McNeese (23-5)	UT Rio Grande Valley (55.3%) DOG	07:30 PM	55
07:30 PM+39.4% EDGE UT Rio Grande Valley @ McNeese 16-12 vs 23-5 UT Rio Grande Valley 55.3% McNeese 44.7% Model Pick UT Rio Grande Valley 55.3% Pick Spread -12.0 Home ML -750 Away ML +500 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +39.4% MODEL PROB 55.3% VEGAS TRUE 15.9% VEGAS JUICED 16.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Rio Grande Valley 71 vs McNeese 75 Total 146.4 Margin +3.8 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff -8.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.0 @52%
Houston #5 (23-4) @ Kansas #14 (20-7)	Houston (79.0%)	09:00 PM	71
09:00 PM+22.8% EDGE Houston #5 @ Kansas #14 23-4 vs 20-7 Houston 79.0% Kansas 21.0% Model Pick Houston 79.0% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +22.8% MODEL PROB 79.0% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston 68 vs Kansas 73 Total 141.0 Margin +5.4 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.0 @59%
Houston Christian (10-18) @ East Texas A&M (11-18)	Houston Christian (59.5%) DOG	07:30 PM	40
07:30 PM+17.4% EDGE Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M 10-18 vs 11-18 Houston Christian 59.5% East Texas A&M 40.5% Model Pick Houston Christian 59.5% Pick Spread -2.5 Home ML -150 Away ML +130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +17.4% MODEL PROB 59.5% VEGAS TRUE 42.0% VEGAS JUICED 43.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston Christian 68 vs East Texas A&M 69 Total 137.1 Margin +1.1 Spread DOG COVERS @54% Diff -1.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 138.5 @54%
Incarnate Word (11-17) @ Northwestern State (9-19)	Incarnate Word (56.4%) DOG	07:30 PM	44
07:30 PM+13.5% EDGE Incarnate Word @ Northwestern State 11-17 vs 9-19 Incarnate Word 56.4% Northwestern State 43.6% Model Pick Incarnate Word 56.4% Pick Spread -2.0 Home ML -145 Away ML +125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.5% MODEL PROB 56.4% VEGAS TRUE 42.9% VEGAS JUICED 44.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Incarnate Word 67 vs Northwestern State 72 Total 138.3 Margin +4.7 Spread FAV COVERS @59% Diff +2.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.2 @50%
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (14-14) @ SE Louisiana (8-20)	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (71.1%)	07:00 PM	29
07:00 PM+13.1% EDGE Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ SE Louisiana 14-14 vs 8-20 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 71.1% SE Louisiana 28.9% Model Pick Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 71.1% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.1% MODEL PROB 71.1% VEGAS TRUE 58.0% VEGAS JUICED 60.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 62 vs SE Louisiana 68 Total 129.8 Margin +6.8 Spread DOG COVERS @74% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 130.5 @52%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Houston #5 (23-4) @ Kansas #14 (20-7)	Houston (79.0%)	09:00 PM	71
09:00 PMCLOSE Houston #5 @ Kansas #14 23-4 vs 20-7 Houston 79.0% Kansas 21.0% Model Pick Houston 79.0% Pick Spread Houston -2.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +22.8% MODEL PROB 79.0% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston 68 vs Kansas 73 Total 141.0 Margin +5.4 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.0 @59%
Nicholls (11-17) @ Lamar (12-16)	Lamar (71.1%)	07:00 PM	29
07:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Nicholls @ Lamar 11-17 vs 12-16 Nicholls 28.9% Lamar 71.1% Model Pick Lamar 71.1% Pick Spread Lamar -3.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.7% MODEL PROB 71.1% VEGAS TRUE 61.4% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Nicholls 73 vs Lamar 73 Total 145.5 Margin +0.3 Spread DOG COVERS @60% Diff -3.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 143.8 @55%
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (14-14) @ SE Louisiana (8-20)	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (71.1%)	07:00 PM	29
07:00 PMCLOSE Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ SE Louisiana 14-14 vs 8-20 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 71.1% SE Louisiana 28.9% Model Pick Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 71.1% Pick Spread Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.1% MODEL PROB 71.1% VEGAS TRUE 58.0% VEGAS JUICED 60.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 62 vs SE Louisiana 68 Total 129.8 Margin +6.8 Spread DOG COVERS @74% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 130.5 @52%
Houston Christian (10-18) @ East Texas A&M (11-18)	Houston Christian (59.5%) DOG	07:30 PM	40
07:30 PMCLOSE Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M 10-18 vs 11-18 Houston Christian 59.5% East Texas A&M 40.5% Model Pick Houston Christian 59.5% Pick Spread Houston Christian +2.5 Home ML -150 Away ML +130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +17.4% MODEL PROB 59.5% VEGAS TRUE 42.0% VEGAS JUICED 43.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston Christian 68 vs East Texas A&M 69 Total 137.1 Margin +1.1 Spread DOG COVERS @54% Diff -1.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 138.5 @54%
Incarnate Word (11-17) @ Northwestern State (9-19)	Incarnate Word (56.4%) DOG	07:30 PM	44
07:30 PMCLOSE Incarnate Word @ Northwestern State 11-17 vs 9-19 Incarnate Word 56.4% Northwestern State 43.6% Model Pick Incarnate Word 56.4% Pick Spread Incarnate Word +2.0 Home ML -145 Away ML +125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.5% MODEL PROB 56.4% VEGAS TRUE 42.9% VEGAS JUICED 44.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Incarnate Word 67 vs Northwestern State 72 Total 138.3 Margin +4.7 Spread FAV COVERS @59% Diff +2.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.2 @50%
Louisville #24 (20-7) @ North Carolina #18 (21-6)	North Carolina (53.8%) DOG	07:00 PM	96
07:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Louisville #24 @ North Carolina #18 20-7 vs 21-6 Louisville 46.2% North Carolina 53.8% Model Pick North Carolina 53.8% Pick Spread North Carolina +3.5 Home ML +120 Away ML -140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.0% MODEL PROB 53.8% VEGAS TRUE 43.8% VEGAS JUICED 45.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Louisville 79 vs North Carolina 73 Total 152.1 Margin -5.7 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 162.5 @79%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Houston Christian (10-18) @ East Texas A&M (11-18)	Houston Christian (59.5%) DOG	+17.4%	07:30 PM	40
07:30 PMUNDERDOG ML Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M 10-18 vs 11-18 Houston Christian 59.5% East Texas A&M 40.5% Model Pick Houston Christian 59.5% Pick Spread Houston Christian +2.5 Home ML -150 Away ML +130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +17.4% MODEL PROB 59.5% VEGAS TRUE 42.0% VEGAS JUICED 43.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston Christian 68 vs East Texas A&M 69 Total 137.1 Margin +1.1 Spread DOG COVERS @54% Diff -1.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 138.5 @54%
Incarnate Word (11-17) @ Northwestern State (9-19)	Incarnate Word (56.4%) DOG	+13.5%	07:30 PM	44
07:30 PMUNDERDOG ML Incarnate Word @ Northwestern State 11-17 vs 9-19 Incarnate Word 56.4% Northwestern State 43.6% Model Pick Incarnate Word 56.4% Pick Spread Incarnate Word +2.0 Home ML -145 Away ML +125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.5% MODEL PROB 56.4% VEGAS TRUE 42.9% VEGAS JUICED 44.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Incarnate Word 67 vs Northwestern State 72 Total 138.3 Margin +4.7 Spread FAV COVERS @59% Diff +2.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.2 @50%
UT Rio Grande Valley (16-12) @ McNeese (23-5)	UT Rio Grande Valley (55.3%) DOG	+39.4%	07:30 PM	55
07:30 PMUNDERDOG ML UT Rio Grande Valley @ McNeese 16-12 vs 23-5 UT Rio Grande Valley 55.3% McNeese 44.7% Model Pick UT Rio Grande Valley 55.3% Pick Spread UT Rio Grande Valley +12.0 Home ML -750 Away ML +500 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +39.4% MODEL PROB 55.3% VEGAS TRUE 15.9% VEGAS JUICED 16.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Rio Grande Valley 71 vs McNeese 75 Total 146.4 Margin +3.8 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff -8.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.0 @52%
Louisville #24 (20-7) @ North Carolina #18 (21-6)	North Carolina (53.8%) DOG	+10.0%	07:00 PM	96
07:00 PMUNDERDOG MLSIGNAL CONFLICT Louisville #24 @ North Carolina #18 20-7 vs 21-6 Louisville 46.2% North Carolina 53.8% Model Pick North Carolina 53.8% Pick Spread North Carolina +3.5 Home ML +120 Away ML -140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.0% MODEL PROB 53.8% VEGAS TRUE 43.8% VEGAS JUICED 45.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Louisville 79 vs North Carolina 73 Total 152.1 Margin -5.7 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 162.5 @79%

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
UT Rio Grande Valley @ McNeese	UT Rio Grande Valley DOG	55.3%	+500	⭐⭐⭐ +232.0%	07:30 PM
Mississippi Valley State @ Grambling	Mississippi Valley State DOG	16.3%	+1200	⭐⭐⭐ +112.3%	08:00 PM
Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M	Houston Christian DOG	59.5%	+130	⭐⭐⭐ +36.7%	07:30 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Houston #5 (23-4) @ Kansas #14 (20-7)	Houston (79.0%)	09:00 PM	71
09:00 PM75%+ CONF +22.8% EDGE Houston #5 @ Kansas #14 23-4 vs 20-7 Houston 79.0% Kansas 21.0% Model Pick Houston 79.0% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +22.8% MODEL PROB 79.0% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston 68 vs Kansas 73 Total 141.0 Margin +5.4 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.0 @59%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
UT Rio Grande Valley (16-12) @ McNeese (23-5)	UT Rio Grande Valley (55.3%)	+39.4%	07:30 PM	55
07:30 PM+39.4% EDGE UT Rio Grande Valley @ McNeese 16-12 vs 23-5 UT Rio Grande Valley 55.3% McNeese 44.7% Model Pick UT Rio Grande Valley 55.3% Pick Spread -12.0 Home ML -750 Away ML +500 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +39.4% MODEL PROB 55.3% VEGAS TRUE 15.9% VEGAS JUICED 16.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Rio Grande Valley 71 vs McNeese 75 Total 146.4 Margin +3.8 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff -8.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.0 @52%
Houston #5 (23-4) @ Kansas #14 (20-7)	Houston (79.0%)	+22.8%	09:00 PM	71
09:00 PM+22.8% EDGE Houston #5 @ Kansas #14 23-4 vs 20-7 Houston 79.0% Kansas 21.0% Model Pick Houston 79.0% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +22.8% MODEL PROB 79.0% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston 68 vs Kansas 73 Total 141.0 Margin +5.4 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.0 @59%
Houston Christian (10-18) @ East Texas A&M (11-18)	Houston Christian (59.5%)	+17.4%	07:30 PM	40
07:30 PM+17.4% EDGE Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M 10-18 vs 11-18 Houston Christian 59.5% East Texas A&M 40.5% Model Pick Houston Christian 59.5% Pick Spread -2.5 Home ML -150 Away ML +130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +17.4% MODEL PROB 59.5% VEGAS TRUE 42.0% VEGAS JUICED 43.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston Christian 68 vs East Texas A&M 69 Total 137.1 Margin +1.1 Spread DOG COVERS @54% Diff -1.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 138.5 @54%
Incarnate Word (11-17) @ Northwestern State (9-19)	Incarnate Word (56.4%)	+13.5%	07:30 PM	44
07:30 PM+13.5% EDGE Incarnate Word @ Northwestern State 11-17 vs 9-19 Incarnate Word 56.4% Northwestern State 43.6% Model Pick Incarnate Word 56.4% Pick Spread -2.0 Home ML -145 Away ML +125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.5% MODEL PROB 56.4% VEGAS TRUE 42.9% VEGAS JUICED 44.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Incarnate Word 67 vs Northwestern State 72 Total 138.3 Margin +4.7 Spread FAV COVERS @59% Diff +2.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.2 @50%
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (14-14) @ SE Louisiana (8-20)	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (71.1%)	+13.1%	07:00 PM	29
07:00 PM+13.1% EDGE Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ SE Louisiana 14-14 vs 8-20 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 71.1% SE Louisiana 28.9% Model Pick Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 71.1% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.1% MODEL PROB 71.1% VEGAS TRUE 58.0% VEGAS JUICED 60.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 62 vs SE Louisiana 68 Total 129.8 Margin +6.8 Spread DOG COVERS @74% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 130.5 @52%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
UT Rio Grande Valley (16-12) @ McNeese (23-5)	UT Rio Grande Valley (55.3%)	+39.4%	07:30 PM	55
07:30 PM+39.4% EDGE UT Rio Grande Valley @ McNeese 16-12 vs 23-5 UT Rio Grande Valley 55.3% McNeese 44.7% Model Pick UT Rio Grande Valley 55.3% Pick Spread -12.0 Home ML -750 Away ML +500 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +39.4% MODEL PROB 55.3% VEGAS TRUE 15.9% VEGAS JUICED 16.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UT Rio Grande Valley 71 vs McNeese 75 Total 146.4 Margin +3.8 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff -8.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.0 @52%
Houston #5 (23-4) @ Kansas #14 (20-7)	Houston (79.0%)	+22.8%	09:00 PM	71
09:00 PM+22.8% EDGE Houston #5 @ Kansas #14 23-4 vs 20-7 Houston 79.0% Kansas 21.0% Model Pick Houston 79.0% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +120 Away ML -140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +22.8% MODEL PROB 79.0% VEGAS TRUE 56.2% VEGAS JUICED 58.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston 68 vs Kansas 73 Total 141.0 Margin +5.4 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.0 @59%
Houston Christian (10-18) @ East Texas A&M (11-18)	Houston Christian (59.5%)	+17.4%	07:30 PM	40
07:30 PM+17.4% EDGE Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M 10-18 vs 11-18 Houston Christian 59.5% East Texas A&M 40.5% Model Pick Houston Christian 59.5% Pick Spread -2.5 Home ML -150 Away ML +130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +17.4% MODEL PROB 59.5% VEGAS TRUE 42.0% VEGAS JUICED 43.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston Christian 68 vs East Texas A&M 69 Total 137.1 Margin +1.1 Spread DOG COVERS @54% Diff -1.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 138.5 @54%
Incarnate Word (11-17) @ Northwestern State (9-19)	Incarnate Word (56.4%)	+13.5%	07:30 PM	44
07:30 PM+13.5% EDGE Incarnate Word @ Northwestern State 11-17 vs 9-19 Incarnate Word 56.4% Northwestern State 43.6% Model Pick Incarnate Word 56.4% Pick Spread -2.0 Home ML -145 Away ML +125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.5% MODEL PROB 56.4% VEGAS TRUE 42.9% VEGAS JUICED 44.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Incarnate Word 67 vs Northwestern State 72 Total 138.3 Margin +4.7 Spread FAV COVERS @59% Diff +2.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.2 @50%
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (14-14) @ SE Louisiana (8-20)	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (71.1%)	+13.1%	07:00 PM	29
07:00 PM+13.1% EDGE Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ SE Louisiana 14-14 vs 8-20 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 71.1% SE Louisiana 28.9% Model Pick Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 71.1% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +130 Away ML -150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.1% MODEL PROB 71.1% VEGAS TRUE 58.0% VEGAS JUICED 60.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 62 vs SE Louisiana 68 Total 129.8 Margin +6.8 Spread DOG COVERS @74% Diff +8.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 130.5 @52%

Model Information

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Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

XGBoost Win/Loss Model