Model Information
- XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
- XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
- Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
- Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
- Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
- Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)
📅 All Games Today
| Game | Prediction ⇅ | Time (ET) ⇅ | Hype Level ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane (17-11) @ South Florida (20-8) | South Florida (90.8%) | 12:00 PM | 29 |
|
12:00 PM
Tulane @ South Florida
17-11 vs 20-8
Tulane 9.2%
South Florida 90.8%
Model Pick
South Florida
90.8%
Pick Spread
South Florida -14.5
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Tulane
76
vs
South Florida
81
Total
157.4
Margin
+4.6
Spread
DOG COVERS @78%
Diff
-9.9
Vegas O/U
BET OVER 155.5 @56%
|
|||
| Rider (4-24) @ Siena (19-11) | Siena (87.8%) | 02:00 PM | 12 |
|
02:00 PM
Rider @ Siena
4-24 vs 19-11
Rider 12.2%
Siena 87.8%
Model Pick
Siena
87.8%
Pick Spread
Siena -16.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Rider
60
vs
Siena
67
Total
126.9
Margin
+6.3
Spread
DOG COVERS @77%
Diff
-9.4
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 137.5 @79%
|
|||
| Charlotte (15-13) @ Florida Atlantic (16-13) | Florida Atlantic (86.7%) | 02:00 PM | 13 |
|
02:00 PM
Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic
15-13 vs 16-13
Charlotte 13.3%
Florida Atlantic 86.7%
Model Pick
Florida Atlantic
86.7%
Pick Spread
Florida Atlantic -7.5
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Charlotte
75
vs
Florida Atlantic
74
Total
148.5
Margin
-1.1
Spread
DOG COVERS @75%
Diff
+8.6
Vegas O/U
BET OVER 147.8 @52%
|
|||
| Michigan State #13 (23-5) @ Indiana (17-11) | Michigan State (78.8%) | 03:45 PM | 56 |
|
03:45 PM
CLOSE Michigan State #13 @ Indiana
23-5 vs 17-11
Michigan State 78.8%
Indiana 21.2%
Model Pick
Michigan State
78.8%
Pick Spread
Michigan State -3.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Michigan State
69
vs
Indiana
74
Total
142.4
Margin
+4.6
Spread
DOG COVERS @73%
Diff
+7.8
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 144.8 @57%
|
|||
| Memphis (12-16) @ East Carolina (10-18) | Memphis (78.8%) | 02:00 PM | 21 |
|
02:00 PM
Memphis @ East Carolina
12-16 vs 10-18
Memphis 78.8%
East Carolina 21.2%
Model Pick
Memphis
78.8%
Pick Spread
Memphis -5.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Memphis
68
vs
East Carolina
71
Total
138.4
Margin
+2.8
Spread
DOG COVERS @73%
Diff
+8.0
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 150.5 @82%
|
|||
| Belmont (26-4) @ Illinois State (19-11) | Belmont (78.3%) DOG | 05:00 PM | 42 |
|
05:00 PM
CLOSEUNDERDOG Belmont @ Illinois State
26-4 vs 19-11
Belmont 78.3%
Illinois State 21.7%
Model Pick
Belmont
78.3%
Pick Spread
Belmont +1.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Belmont
76
vs
Illinois State
73
Total
149.2
Margin
-2.6
Spread
DOG COVERS @62%
Diff
+3.8
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 150.8 @55%
|
|||
| Northern Iowa (18-12) @ Drake (12-18) | Northern Iowa (77.2%) | 03:00 PM | 23 |
|
03:00 PM
Northern Iowa @ Drake
18-12 vs 12-18
Northern Iowa 77.2%
Drake 22.8%
Model Pick
Northern Iowa
77.2%
Pick Spread
Northern Iowa -4.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Northern Iowa
64
vs
Drake
66
Total
130.3
Margin
+2.7
Spread
DOG COVERS @69%
Diff
+6.4
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 139.2 @75%
|
|||
| Rice (11-17) @ Temple (15-13) | Temple (75.8%) | 02:00 PM | 24 |
|
02:00 PM
Rice @ Temple
11-17 vs 15-13
Rice 24.2%
Temple 75.8%
Model Pick
Temple
75.8%
Pick Spread
Temple -7.5
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Rice
71
vs
Temple
72
Total
142.8
Margin
+0.6
Spread
DOG COVERS @70%
Diff
-6.9
Vegas O/U
BET OVER 142.0 @52%
|
|||
| UIC (17-13) @ Indiana State (10-20) | UIC (75.4%) | 01:00 PM | 25 |
|
01:00 PM
CLOSE UIC @ Indiana State
17-13 vs 10-20
UIC 75.4%
Indiana State 24.6%
Model Pick
UIC
75.4%
Pick Spread
UIC -3.5
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
UIC
71
vs
Indiana State
72
Total
142.4
Margin
+0.6
Spread
DOG COVERS @62%
Diff
+4.1
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 143.2 @53%
|
|||
| DePaul (15-13) @ Marquette (10-18) | DePaul (75.4%) DOG | 04:00 PM | 25 |
|
04:00 PM
UNDERDOG DePaul @ Marquette
15-13 vs 10-18
DePaul 75.4%
Marquette 24.6%
Model Pick
DePaul
75.4%
Pick Spread
DePaul +4.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
DePaul
66
vs
Marquette
70
Total
136.3
Margin
+4.3
Spread
FAV COVERS @52%
Diff
+0.6
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 142.5 @68%
|
|||
| Quinnipiac (18-12) @ Canisius (10-20) | Quinnipiac (75.0%) | 01:00 PM | 25 |
|
01:00 PM
Quinnipiac @ Canisius
18-12 vs 10-20
Quinnipiac 75.0%
Canisius 25.0%
Model Pick
Quinnipiac
75.0%
Pick Spread
Quinnipiac -7.5
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Quinnipiac
68
vs
Canisius
68
Total
136.6
Margin
+0.2
Spread
DOG COVERS @72%
Diff
+7.7
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 138.2 @55%
|
|||
| Rutgers (11-17) @ Maryland (11-17) | Rutgers (74.3%) DOG | 12:00 PM | 26 |
|
12:00 PM
UNDERDOG Rutgers @ Maryland
11-17 vs 11-17
Rutgers 74.3%
Maryland 25.7%
Model Pick
Rutgers
74.3%
Pick Spread
Rutgers +5.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Rutgers
65
vs
Maryland
68
Total
132.9
Margin
+2.5
Spread
DOG COVERS @58%
Diff
-2.5
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 141.5 @75%
|
|||
| Murray State (20-10) @ Bradley (19-11) | Murray State (74.0%) DOG | 02:00 PM | 46 |
|
02:00 PM
UNDERDOG Murray State @ Bradley
20-10 vs 19-11
Murray State 74.0%
Bradley 26.0%
Model Pick
Murray State
74.0%
Pick Spread
Murray State +4.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Murray State
74
vs
Bradley
81
Total
155.2
Margin
+6.8
Spread
FAV COVERS @58%
Diff
+2.6
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 158.5 @60%
|
|||
| Southern Illinois (15-15) @ Evansville (7-23) | Southern Illinois (73.8%) | 04:00 PM | 26 |
|
04:00 PM
Southern Illinois @ Evansville
15-15 vs 7-23
Southern Illinois 73.8%
Evansville 26.2%
Model Pick
Southern Illinois
73.8%
Pick Spread
Southern Illinois -8.5
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Southern Illinois
64
vs
Evansville
64
Total
127.2
Margin
+0.2
Spread
DOG COVERS @75%
Diff
+8.7
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 138.5 @81%
|
|||
| North Texas (16-13) @ UAB (18-10) | UAB (73.7%) | 12:00 PM | 26 |
|
12:00 PM
SIGNAL CONFLICT North Texas @ UAB
16-13 vs 18-10
North Texas 26.3%
UAB 73.7%
Model Pick
UAB
73.7%
Pick Spread
UAB -5.0
Home ML
-218
Away ML
+180
EDGE (VIG ADJ)
+7.9%
MODEL PROB
73.7%
VEGAS TRUE
65.7%
VEGAS JUICED
68.6%
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
North Texas
72
vs
UAB
70
Total
142.4
Margin
-2.4
Spread
DOG COVERS @71%
Diff
+7.2
Vegas O/U
BET OVER 142.0 @51%
|
|||
| Saint Peter's (16-11) @ Marist (18-10) | Saint Peter's (72.4%) DOG | 02:00 PM | 28 |
|
02:00 PM
UNDERDOG Saint Peter's @ Marist
16-11 vs 18-10
Saint Peter's 72.4%
Marist 27.6%
Model Pick
Saint Peter's
72.4%
Pick Spread
Saint Peter's +4.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Saint Peter's
62
vs
Marist
63
Total
124.6
Margin
+1.2
Spread
DOG COVERS @58%
Diff
-2.6
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 133.8 @76%
|
|||
| Charleston (20-10) @ UNC Wilmington (25-4) | UNC Wilmington (71.1%) | 07:00 PM | 49 |
|
07:00 PM
CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Charleston @ UNC Wilmington
20-10 vs 25-4
Charleston 28.9%
UNC Wilmington 71.1%
Model Pick
UNC Wilmington
71.1%
Pick Spread
UNC Wilmington -3.5
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Charleston
75
vs
UNC Wilmington
74
Total
148.6
Margin
-1.6
Spread
DOG COVERS @65%
Diff
+5.1
Vegas O/U
BET OVER 144.5 @62%
|
|||
| La Salle (8-20) @ Davidson (17-11) | Davidson (69.7%) | 12:00 PM | 30 |
|
12:00 PM
SIGNAL CONFLICT La Salle @ Davidson
8-20 vs 17-11
La Salle 30.3%
Davidson 69.7%
Model Pick
Davidson
69.7%
Pick Spread
Davidson -11.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
La Salle
62
vs
Davidson
65
Total
126.8
Margin
+2.6
Spread
DOG COVERS @73%
Diff
-8.2
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 134.5 @72%
|
|||
| Merrimack (20-10) @ Niagara (8-21) | Merrimack (66.2%) | 02:00 PM | 34 |
|
02:00 PM
Merrimack @ Niagara
20-10 vs 8-21
Merrimack 66.2%
Niagara 33.8%
Model Pick
Merrimack
66.2%
Pick Spread
Merrimack -8.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Merrimack
63
vs
Niagara
63
Total
125.6
Margin
+0.0
Spread
DOG COVERS @74%
Diff
-8.2
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 126.8 @54%
|
|||
| Purdue #8 (22-6) @ Ohio State (17-11) | Ohio State (62.5%) DOG | 01:30 PM | 72 |
|
01:30 PM
UNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT Purdue #8 @ Ohio State
22-6 vs 17-11
Purdue 37.5%
Ohio State 62.5%
Model Pick
Ohio State
62.5%
Pick Spread
Ohio State +6.5
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Purdue
78
vs
Ohio State
71
Total
148.2
Margin
-7.0
Spread
FAV COVERS @52%
Diff
+0.5
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 150.5 @57%
|
|||
| Mount St. Mary's (14-16) @ Fairfield (19-11) | Fairfield (61.4%) | 02:00 PM | 39 |
|
02:00 PM
SIGNAL CONFLICT Mount St. Mary's @ Fairfield
14-16 vs 19-11
Mount St. Mary's 38.6%
Fairfield 61.4%
Model Pick
Fairfield
61.4%
Pick Spread
Fairfield -4.5
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Mount St. Mary's
69
vs
Fairfield
70
Total
138.8
Margin
+0.2
Spread
DOG COVERS @63%
Diff
-4.3
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 144.8 @68%
|
|||
| Wichita State (19-10) @ UTSA (5-23) | UTSA (58.4%) DOG | 08:00 PM | 42 |
|
08:00 PM
UNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT Wichita State @ UTSA
19-10 vs 5-23
Wichita State 41.6%
UTSA 58.4%
Model Pick
UTSA
58.4%
Pick Spread
UTSA +14.5
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Wichita State
82
vs
UTSA
64
Total
145.8
Margin
-18.0
Spread
FAV COVERS @61%
Diff
+3.5
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 149.5 @61%
|
|||
| Iona (17-13) @ Manhattan (12-18) | Manhattan (55.3%) DOG | 02:00 PM | 45 |
|
02:00 PM
CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT Iona @ Manhattan
17-13 vs 12-18
Iona 44.7%
Manhattan 55.3%
Model Pick
Manhattan
55.3%
Pick Spread
Manhattan +2.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Iona
74
vs
Manhattan
65
Total
139.0
Margin
-8.4
Spread
FAV COVERS @68%
Diff
+6.1
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 150.5 @81%
|
|||
TIERED RECOMMENDATION SYSTEM
⭐ PREMIUM: 80%+ conf, 5+ edge (88.5% win, 69.1% ROI) •
✓ GOOD: 75%+ conf, 7+ edge (82.7% win, 57.9% ROI)
Based on 4,181 game analysis • Updated Feb 9, 2026
| Game | Prediction | Time (ET) | Hype Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis (12-16) @ East Carolina (10-18) | Memphis (78.8%) ✓ GOOD | 02:00 PM | 21 |
|
02:00 PM+8.0 PTS EDGE
Memphis @ East Carolina
12-16 vs 10-18
Memphis 78.8%
East Carolina 21.2%
Model Pick
Memphis (78.8%)
Pick Spread
Memphis -5.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
SPREAD EDGE
+8.0 pts
PREDICTED MARGIN
+2.8
COVERAGE
COVER
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Memphis
68
vs
East Carolina
71
Total
138.4
Margin
+2.8
Spread
DOG COVERS @73%
Diff
+8.0
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 150.5 @82%
|
|||
| Michigan State #13 (23-5) @ Indiana (17-11) | Michigan State (78.8%) ✓ GOOD | 03:45 PM | 56 |
|
03:45 PM+7.8 PTS EDGE
Michigan State #13 @ Indiana
23-5 vs 17-11
Michigan State 78.8%
Indiana 21.2%
Model Pick
Michigan State (78.8%)
Pick Spread
Michigan State -3.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
SPREAD EDGE
+7.8 pts
PREDICTED MARGIN
+4.6
COVERAGE
COVER
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Michigan State
69
vs
Indiana
74
Total
142.4
Margin
+4.6
Spread
DOG COVERS @73%
Diff
+7.8
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 144.8 @57%
|
|||
| Quinnipiac (18-12) @ Canisius (10-20) | Quinnipiac (75.0%) ✓ GOOD | 01:00 PM | 25 |
|
01:00 PM+7.7 PTS EDGE
Quinnipiac @ Canisius
18-12 vs 10-20
Quinnipiac 75.0%
Canisius 25.0%
Model Pick
Quinnipiac (75.0%)
Pick Spread
Quinnipiac -7.5
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
SPREAD EDGE
+7.7 pts
PREDICTED MARGIN
+0.2
COVERAGE
COVER
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Quinnipiac
68
vs
Canisius
68
Total
136.6
Margin
+0.2
Spread
DOG COVERS @72%
Diff
+7.7
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 138.2 @55%
|
|||
| Charlotte (15-13) @ Florida Atlantic (16-13) | Florida Atlantic (86.7%) ⭐ PREMIUM | 02:00 PM | 13 |
|
02:00 PM+8.6 PTS EDGE
Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic
15-13 vs 16-13
Charlotte 13.3%
Florida Atlantic 86.7%
Model Pick
Florida Atlantic (86.7%)
Pick Spread
Florida Atlantic -7.5
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
SPREAD EDGE
+8.6 pts
PREDICTED MARGIN
-1.1
COVERAGE
NO COVER
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Charlotte
75
vs
Florida Atlantic
74
Total
148.5
Margin
-1.1
Spread
DOG COVERS @75%
Diff
+8.6
Vegas O/U
BET OVER 147.8 @52%
|
|||
| Game | Prediction | Time (ET) | Hype Level |
|---|
| Game | Prediction | Time (ET) | Hype Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State #13 (23-5) @ Indiana (17-11) | Michigan State (78.8%) | 03:45 PM | 56 |
|
03:45 PMCLOSE
Michigan State #13 @ Indiana
23-5 vs 17-11
Michigan State 78.8%
Indiana 21.2%
Model Pick
Michigan State
78.8%
Pick Spread
Michigan State -3.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Michigan State
69
vs
Indiana
74
Total
142.4
Margin
+4.6
Spread
DOG COVERS @73%
Diff
+7.8
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 144.8 @57%
|
|||
| Belmont (26-4) @ Illinois State (19-11) | Belmont (78.3%) DOG | 05:00 PM | 42 |
|
05:00 PMCLOSE
Belmont @ Illinois State
26-4 vs 19-11
Belmont 78.3%
Illinois State 21.7%
Model Pick
Belmont
78.3%
Pick Spread
Belmont +1.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Belmont
76
vs
Illinois State
73
Total
149.2
Margin
-2.6
Spread
DOG COVERS @62%
Diff
+3.8
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 150.8 @55%
|
|||
| UIC (17-13) @ Indiana State (10-20) | UIC (75.4%) | 01:00 PM | 25 |
|
01:00 PMCLOSE
UIC @ Indiana State
17-13 vs 10-20
UIC 75.4%
Indiana State 24.6%
Model Pick
UIC
75.4%
Pick Spread
UIC -3.5
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
UIC
71
vs
Indiana State
72
Total
142.4
Margin
+0.6
Spread
DOG COVERS @62%
Diff
+4.1
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 143.2 @53%
|
|||
| Charleston (20-10) @ UNC Wilmington (25-4) | UNC Wilmington (71.1%) | 07:00 PM | 49 |
|
07:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT
Charleston @ UNC Wilmington
20-10 vs 25-4
Charleston 28.9%
UNC Wilmington 71.1%
Model Pick
UNC Wilmington
71.1%
Pick Spread
UNC Wilmington -3.5
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Charleston
75
vs
UNC Wilmington
74
Total
148.6
Margin
-1.6
Spread
DOG COVERS @65%
Diff
+5.1
Vegas O/U
BET OVER 144.5 @62%
|
|||
| Iona (17-13) @ Manhattan (12-18) | Manhattan (55.3%) DOG | 02:00 PM | 45 |
|
02:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT
Iona @ Manhattan
17-13 vs 12-18
Iona 44.7%
Manhattan 55.3%
Model Pick
Manhattan
55.3%
Pick Spread
Manhattan +2.0
Home ML
N/A
Away ML
N/A
XGB
XGB PREDICTED SCORE
Iona
74
vs
Manhattan
65
Total
139.0
Margin
-8.4
Spread
FAV COVERS @68%
Diff
+6.1
Vegas O/U
BET UNDER 150.5 @81%
|
|||
| Game | Prediction | Edge | Time (ET) | Hype Level |
|---|
| Game | Pick | Confidence | Moneyline | Expected Value | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAB vs North Texas | UAB FAV | 73.7% | -218 | ⭐ +7.5% | 12:00 PM |
| Game | Prediction | Time (ET) | Hype Level |
|---|
| Game | Prediction | Edge | Time (ET) | Hype Level |
|---|
| Game | Prediction | Edge | Time (ET) | Hype Level |
|---|