Daily win/loss predictions and value edges vs closing lines
Calibrated XGBoost | 2022-2026 (Transfer Portal Era)
LIVE
Today
MAR 05
Total Games
41
Model
XGBoost
Features
144
Training Set
25,500+
Season
2025-26

Model Information

  • XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
  • XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
  • Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
  • Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
  • Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
  • Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Rutgers (12-17) @ Michigan State #8 (24-5) Michigan State (94.6%) 08:00 PM 30
Evansville (7-24) @ Northern Iowa (19-12) Northern Iowa (87.6%) 09:30 PM 17
Bucknell (10-22) @ Navy (25-6) Navy (86.2%) 07:00 PM 24
Cal Poly (13-17) @ UC Irvine (20-10) UC Irvine (77.6%) 10:00 PM 22
Mississippi Valley State (3-28) @ Jackson State (10-20) Jackson State (77.0%) 08:00 PM 23
Abilene Christian (13-16) @ California Baptist (21-8) California Baptist (76.2%) 10:00 PM 34
UC Riverside (10-21) @ Hawai'i (21-7) Hawai'i (74.6%) 11:59 PM 35
Louisiana Tech (16-13) @ Liberty (24-5) Liberty (71.9%) 07:00 PM 38
Loyola Maryland (12-19) @ Colgate (17-14) Colgate (71.1%) 07:00 PM 29
Coppin State (7-23) @ Morgan State (13-15) Morgan State (71.1%) 08:00 PM 29
South Dakota State (14-17) @ St. Thomas-Minnesota (23-8) St. Thomas-Minnesota (69.3%) 09:30 PM 46
San Diego (11-20) @ Loyola Marymount (15-16) Loyola Marymount (68.2%) 11:30 PM 37
Michigan #3 (27-2) @ Iowa (20-9) Michigan (64.0%) 08:00 PM 76
Manhattan (12-19) @ Fairfield (19-12) Fairfield (62.7%) 08:30 PM 42
Holy Cross (11-21) @ Lehigh (15-16) Lehigh (62.4%) 07:00 PM 38
Delaware State (6-22) @ Maryland Eastern Shore (9-21) Maryland Eastern Shore (61.3%) 07:00 PM 39
Prairie View A&M (13-17) @ Texas Southern (12-16) Texas Southern (60.8%) 08:00 PM 39
South Carolina State (8-21) @ North Carolina Central (12-16) North Carolina Central (60.7%) 05:00 PM 39
Pepperdine (9-22) @ Portland (13-18) Portland (60.4%) 09:00 PM 45
Sacred Heart (13-18) @ Iona (18-13) Iona (60.2%) 06:00 PM 45
Indiana State (11-20) @ Valparaiso (17-14) Valparaiso (59.7%) 07:00 PM 45
Tulane (17-12) @ Temple (15-14) Temple (59.7%) 07:00 PM 40
Drake (12-19) @ Southern Illinois (16-15) Southern Illinois (59.7%) 04:30 PM 45
Jacksonville State (14-15) @ New Mexico State (13-15) New Mexico State (59.0%) 09:00 PM 41
Utah Valley (22-7) @ Southern Utah (10-19) Utah Valley (57.5%) 08:30 PM 52
American University (16-15) @ Boston University (15-16) Boston University (56.7%) 07:00 PM 43
Tulsa (23-6) @ East Carolina (11-18) Tulsa (56.6%) 07:00 PM 53
Grambling (12-18) @ Alabama State (10-20) Alabama State (55.3%) 08:00 PM 45
South Florida (21-8) @ Memphis (12-17) South Florida (55.2%) 09:00 PM 55
Cal State Northridge (18-12) @ Cal State Bakersfield (8-22) Cal State Northridge (55.0%) 09:30 PM 45
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (12-18) @ Alcorn State (8-21) Alcorn State (54.3%) DOG 09:00 PM 46
Middle Tennessee (15-14) @ Florida International (14-15) Florida International (54.2%) 07:00 PM 46
UT Arlington (15-13) @ Tarleton State (14-16) Tarleton State (53.8%) 08:00 PM 46
Western Kentucky (18-11) @ Missouri State (13-16) Missouri State (52.7%) DOG 08:00 PM 47
Southern (14-16) @ Alabama A&M (17-13) Alabama A&M (52.7%) DOG 08:30 PM 47
Kennesaw State (18-11) @ UTEP (10-19) UTEP (52.3%) DOG 09:00 PM 48
Bethune-Cookman (17-13) @ Florida A&M (12-15) Florida A&M (52.3%) DOG 07:30 PM 48
UC Davis (17-12) @ Long Beach State (9-21) Long Beach State (52.1%) DOG 10:00 PM 48
Sam Houston (21-8) @ Delaware (9-20) Delaware (51.8%) DOG 07:00 PM 58
UC San Diego (21-9) @ Cal State Fullerton (15-15) UC San Diego (51.6%) 10:00 PM 48
Howard (20-10) @ Norfolk State (15-15) Howard (50.2%) 07:00 PM 50
Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Prairie View A&M (13-17) @ Texas Southern (12-16) Texas Southern (60.8%) 08:00 PM 39
Pepperdine (9-22) @ Portland (13-18) Portland (60.4%) 09:00 PM 45
Sacred Heart (13-18) @ Iona (18-13) Iona (60.2%) 06:00 PM 45
Indiana State (11-20) @ Valparaiso (17-14) Valparaiso (59.7%) 07:00 PM 45
American University (16-15) @ Boston University (15-16) Boston University (56.7%) 07:00 PM 43
Grambling (12-18) @ Alabama State (10-20) Alabama State (55.3%) 08:00 PM 45
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (12-18) @ Alcorn State (8-21) Alcorn State (54.3%) DOG 09:00 PM 46
Middle Tennessee (15-14) @ Florida International (14-15) Florida International (54.2%) 07:00 PM 46
UT Arlington (15-13) @ Tarleton State (14-16) Tarleton State (53.8%) 08:00 PM 46
Western Kentucky (18-11) @ Missouri State (13-16) Missouri State (52.7%) DOG 08:00 PM 47
Southern (14-16) @ Alabama A&M (17-13) Alabama A&M (52.7%) DOG 08:30 PM 47
Kennesaw State (18-11) @ UTEP (10-19) UTEP (52.3%) DOG 09:00 PM 48
Bethune-Cookman (17-13) @ Florida A&M (12-15) Florida A&M (52.3%) DOG 07:30 PM 48
UC Davis (17-12) @ Long Beach State (9-21) Long Beach State (52.1%) DOG 10:00 PM 48
UC San Diego (21-9) @ Cal State Fullerton (15-15) UC San Diego (51.6%) 10:00 PM 48
Game Prediction Edge Time (ET) Hype Level
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Expected Value Time (ET)
Iowa vs Michigan Iowa DOG 36.0% +380 ⭐⭐⭐ +72.7% 08:00 PM
Rutgers @ Michigan State Rutgers DOG 5.4% +3000 ⭐⭐⭐ +68.0% 08:00 PM
Memphis vs South Florida Memphis DOG 44.8% +230 ⭐⭐⭐ +47.7% 09:00 PM
Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Game Prediction Edge Time (ET) Hype Level
Game Prediction Edge Time (ET) Hype Level
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