Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
Utah (10-21) @ Cincinnati (17-14)	Cincinnati (85.2%)	03:00 PM	20
03:00 PM Utah @ Cincinnati 10-21 vs 17-14 Utah 14.8% Cincinnati 85.2% Model Pick Cincinnati 85.2% Pick Spread Cincinnati -12.5 Home ML -700 Away ML +475 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.8% MODEL PROB 85.2% VEGAS TRUE 83.4% VEGAS JUICED 87.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Utah 67 vs Cincinnati 71 Total 138.6 Margin +4.0 Spread DOG COVERS @74% Diff -8.5 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.8 @53%
NJIT (16-16) @ Vermont (21-11)	Vermont (79.0%)	07:00 PM	21
07:00 PM NJIT @ Vermont 16-16 vs 21-11 NJIT 21.0% Vermont 79.0% Model Pick Vermont 79.0% Pick Spread Vermont -11.0 Home ML -950 Away ML +600 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -7.4% MODEL PROB 79.0% VEGAS TRUE 86.4% VEGAS JUICED 90.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE NJIT 64 vs Vermont 65 Total 128.6 Margin +1.6 Spread DOG COVERS @77% Diff -9.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 135.2 @70%
Kansas State (12-19) @ BYU (21-10)	BYU (78.1%)	07:00 PM	27
07:00 PM Kansas State @ BYU 12-19 vs 21-10 Kansas State 21.9% BYU 78.1% Model Pick BYU 78.1% Pick Spread BYU -11.0 Home ML -550 Away ML +390 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.5% MODEL PROB 78.1% VEGAS TRUE 80.6% VEGAS JUICED 84.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Kansas State 73 vs BYU 81 Total 154.3 Margin +8.3 Spread DOG COVERS @57% Diff -2.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 168.0 @85%
Mercyhurst (17-16) @ Long Island University (23-10)	Long Island University (69.6%)	07:00 PM	30
07:00 PM Mercyhurst @ Long Island University 17-16 vs 23-10 Mercyhurst 30.4% Long Island University 69.6% Model Pick Long Island University 69.6% Pick Spread Long Island University -5.5 Home ML -290 Away ML +240 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.1% MODEL PROB 69.6% VEGAS TRUE 71.7% VEGAS JUICED 74.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Mercyhurst 68 vs Long Island University 64 Total 131.7 Margin -3.3 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 134.8 @59%
Syracuse (15-16) @ SMU (19-12)	SMU (65.7%)	04:30 PM	39
04:30 PM Syracuse @ SMU 15-16 vs 19-12 Syracuse 34.3% SMU 65.7% Model Pick SMU 65.7% Pick Spread SMU -4.5 Home ML -220 Away ML +180 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.1% MODEL PROB 65.7% VEGAS TRUE 65.8% VEGAS JUICED 68.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Syracuse 72 vs SMU 75 Total 146.9 Margin +2.7 Spread DOG COVERS @56% Diff -1.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 154.5 @72%
Pittsburgh (12-19) @ Stanford (20-11)	Stanford (65.4%)	02:00 PM	40
02:00 PM Pittsburgh @ Stanford 12-19 vs 20-11 Pittsburgh 34.6% Stanford 65.4% Model Pick Stanford 65.4% Pick Spread Stanford -5.0 Home ML -220 Away ML +180 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.5% MODEL PROB 65.4% VEGAS TRUE 65.8% VEGAS JUICED 68.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Pittsburgh 70 vs Stanford 67 Total 136.7 Margin -2.3 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 136.5 @51%
Penn State (12-19) @ Northwestern (13-18)	Northwestern (62.6%)	07:30 PM	42
07:30 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Penn State @ Northwestern 12-19 vs 13-18 Penn State 37.4% Northwestern 62.6% Model Pick Northwestern 62.6% Pick Spread Northwestern -6.0 Home ML -270 Away ML +220 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -7.5% MODEL PROB 62.6% VEGAS TRUE 70.0% VEGAS JUICED 73.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Penn State 70 vs Northwestern 68 Total 138.4 Margin -1.4 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.8 @66%
UMass Lowell (15-17) @ UMBC (22-8)	UMBC (61.3%)	06:00 PM	49
06:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT UMass Lowell @ UMBC 15-17 vs 22-8 UMass Lowell 38.7% UMBC 61.3% Model Pick UMBC 61.3% Pick Spread UMBC -6.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UMass Lowell 69 vs UMBC 67 Total 135.8 Margin -2.0 Spread DOG COVERS @74% Diff +8.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 147.5 @82%
Siena (22-11) @ Merrimack (23-10)	Merrimack (59.3%)	09:00 PM	66
09:00 PM CLOSE Siena @ Merrimack 22-11 vs 23-10 Siena 40.7% Merrimack 59.3% Model Pick Merrimack 59.3% Pick Spread Merrimack -3.0 Home ML -157 Away ML +132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.5% MODEL PROB 59.3% VEGAS TRUE 58.7% VEGAS JUICED 61.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Siena 68 vs Merrimack 62 Total 129.4 Margin -5.6 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 125.8 @61%
Maryland (11-20) @ Oregon (12-19)	Oregon (57.6%)	05:00 PM	47
05:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Maryland @ Oregon 11-20 vs 12-19 Maryland 42.4% Oregon 57.6% Model Pick Oregon 57.6% Pick Spread Oregon -4.0 Home ML -165 Away ML +140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.3% MODEL PROB 57.6% VEGAS TRUE 59.9% VEGAS JUICED 62.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Maryland 69 vs Oregon 66 Total 134.3 Margin -2.9 Spread DOG COVERS @71% Diff +7.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 138.5 @63%
Oklahoma State (18-13) @ Colorado (17-14)	Colorado (54.9%)	09:30 PM	50
09:30 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Oklahoma State @ Colorado 18-13 vs 17-14 Oklahoma State 45.1% Colorado 54.9% Model Pick Colorado 54.9% Pick Spread Colorado -2.0 Home ML -130 Away ML +110 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.6% MODEL PROB 54.9% VEGAS TRUE 54.3% VEGAS JUICED 56.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Oklahoma State 77 vs Colorado 72 Total 149.1 Margin -4.5 Spread DOG COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 164.5 @88%
Wake Forest (16-15) @ Virginia Tech (19-12)	Virginia Tech (54.8%)	07:00 PM	50
07:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech 16-15 vs 19-12 Wake Forest 45.2% Virginia Tech 54.8% Model Pick Virginia Tech 54.8% Pick Spread Virginia Tech -2.5 Home ML -145 Away ML +125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.3% MODEL PROB 54.8% VEGAS TRUE 57.1% VEGAS JUICED 59.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Wake Forest 72 vs Virginia Tech 70 Total 142.6 Margin -1.8 Spread DOG COVERS @63% Diff +4.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.8 @76%
Missouri State (14-17) @ Florida International (15-16)	Florida International (53.1%)	06:30 PM	52
06:30 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Missouri State @ Florida International 14-17 vs 15-16 Missouri State 46.9% Florida International 53.1% Model Pick Florida International 53.1% Pick Spread Florida International -1.0 Home ML -115 Away ML -105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.0% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 51.1% VEGAS JUICED 53.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Missouri State 72 vs Florida International 67 Total 139.7 Margin -5.1 Spread DOG COVERS @69% Diff +6.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 152.8 @84%
New Mexico State (15-15) @ Jacksonville State (15-16)	Jacksonville State (53.1%) DOG	09:00 PM	52
09:00 PM +5.3% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State 15-15 vs 15-16 New Mexico State 46.9% Jacksonville State 53.1% Model Pick Jacksonville State 53.1% Pick Spread Jacksonville State +1.0 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.3% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 47.8% VEGAS JUICED 50.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Mexico State 70 vs Jacksonville State 68 Total 137.5 Margin -2.1 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +0.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 141.5 @62%
Baylor (16-15) @ Arizona State (16-15)	Baylor (52.6%)	12:30 PM	52
12:30 PM Baylor @ Arizona State 16-15 vs 16-15 Baylor 52.6% Arizona State 47.4% Model Pick Baylor 52.6% Pick Spread Baylor -5.0 Home ML +145 Away ML -170 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -8.1% MODEL PROB 52.6% VEGAS TRUE 60.7% VEGAS JUICED 63.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Baylor 71 vs Arizona State 73 Total 143.8 Margin +2.4 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff +7.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 152.5 @75%

TIERED RECOMMENDATION SYSTEM

⭐ PREMIUM: 80%+ conf, 5+ edge (88.5% win, 69.1% ROI) • ✓ GOOD: 75%+ conf, 7+ edge (82.7% win, 57.9% ROI)

Based on 4,181 game analysis • Updated Feb 9, 2026

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
New Mexico State (15-15) @ Jacksonville State (15-16)	Jacksonville State (53.1%)	09:00 PM	52
09:00 PM+5.3% EDGE New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State 15-15 vs 15-16 New Mexico State 46.9% Jacksonville State 53.1% Model Pick Jacksonville State 53.1% Pick Spread +1.0 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.3% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 47.8% VEGAS JUICED 50.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Mexico State 70 vs Jacksonville State 68 Total 137.5 Margin -2.1 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +0.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 141.5 @62%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Siena (22-11) @ Merrimack (23-10)	Merrimack (59.3%)	09:00 PM	66
09:00 PMCLOSE Siena @ Merrimack 22-11 vs 23-10 Siena 40.7% Merrimack 59.3% Model Pick Merrimack 59.3% Pick Spread Merrimack -3.0 Home ML -157 Away ML +132 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.5% MODEL PROB 59.3% VEGAS TRUE 58.7% VEGAS JUICED 61.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Siena 68 vs Merrimack 62 Total 129.4 Margin -5.6 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 125.8 @61%
Oklahoma State (18-13) @ Colorado (17-14)	Colorado (54.9%)	09:30 PM	50
09:30 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Oklahoma State @ Colorado 18-13 vs 17-14 Oklahoma State 45.1% Colorado 54.9% Model Pick Colorado 54.9% Pick Spread Colorado -2.0 Home ML -130 Away ML +110 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.6% MODEL PROB 54.9% VEGAS TRUE 54.3% VEGAS JUICED 56.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Oklahoma State 77 vs Colorado 72 Total 149.1 Margin -4.5 Spread DOG COVERS @68% Diff +6.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 164.5 @88%
Wake Forest (16-15) @ Virginia Tech (19-12)	Virginia Tech (54.8%)	07:00 PM	50
07:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech 16-15 vs 19-12 Wake Forest 45.2% Virginia Tech 54.8% Model Pick Virginia Tech 54.8% Pick Spread Virginia Tech -2.5 Home ML -145 Away ML +125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.3% MODEL PROB 54.8% VEGAS TRUE 57.1% VEGAS JUICED 59.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Wake Forest 72 vs Virginia Tech 70 Total 142.6 Margin -1.8 Spread DOG COVERS @63% Diff +4.3 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.8 @76%
Missouri State (14-17) @ Florida International (15-16)	Florida International (53.1%)	06:30 PM	52
06:30 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Missouri State @ Florida International 14-17 vs 15-16 Missouri State 46.9% Florida International 53.1% Model Pick Florida International 53.1% Pick Spread Florida International -1.0 Home ML -115 Away ML -105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.0% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 51.1% VEGAS JUICED 53.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Missouri State 72 vs Florida International 67 Total 139.7 Margin -5.1 Spread DOG COVERS @69% Diff +6.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 152.8 @84%
New Mexico State (15-15) @ Jacksonville State (15-16)	Jacksonville State (53.1%) DOG	09:00 PM	52
09:00 PMCLOSE New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State 15-15 vs 15-16 New Mexico State 46.9% Jacksonville State 53.1% Model Pick Jacksonville State 53.1% Pick Spread Jacksonville State +1.0 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.3% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 47.8% VEGAS JUICED 50.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Mexico State 70 vs Jacksonville State 68 Total 137.5 Margin -2.1 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +0.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 141.5 @62%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
New Mexico State (15-15) @ Jacksonville State (15-16)	Jacksonville State (53.1%) DOG	+5.3%	09:00 PM	52
09:00 PMUNDERDOG ML New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State 15-15 vs 15-16 New Mexico State 46.9% Jacksonville State 53.1% Model Pick Jacksonville State 53.1% Pick Spread Jacksonville State +1.0 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.3% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 47.8% VEGAS JUICED 50.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Mexico State 70 vs Jacksonville State 68 Total 137.5 Margin -2.1 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +0.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 141.5 @62%

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
NJIT @ Vermont	NJIT DOG	21.0%	+600	⭐⭐⭐ +47.3%	07:00 PM
Penn State @ Northwestern	Penn State DOG	37.4%	+220	⭐⭐ +19.8%	07:30 PM
Arizona State vs Baylor	Arizona State DOG	47.4%	+145	⭐⭐ +16.1%	12:30 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
New Mexico State (15-15) @ Jacksonville State (15-16)	Jacksonville State (53.1%)	+5.3%	09:00 PM	52
09:00 PM+5.3% EDGE New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State 15-15 vs 15-16 New Mexico State 46.9% Jacksonville State 53.1% Model Pick Jacksonville State 53.1% Pick Spread +1.0 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.3% MODEL PROB 53.1% VEGAS TRUE 47.8% VEGAS JUICED 50.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE New Mexico State 70 vs Jacksonville State 68 Total 137.5 Margin -2.1 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +0.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 141.5 @62%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level