Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
Air Force (3-28) @ Nevada (20-11)	Nevada (93.4%)	05:30 PM	12
05:30 PM Air Force @ Nevada 3-28 vs 20-11 Air Force 6.6% Nevada 93.4% Model Pick Nevada 93.4% Pick Spread Nevada -20.0 Home ML -6000 Away ML +1325 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.0% MODEL PROB 93.4% VEGAS TRUE 93.3% VEGAS JUICED 98.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Air Force 54 vs Nevada 85 Total 139.2 Margin +30.2 Spread FAV COVERS @78% Diff +10.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 141.5 @57%
San José State (8-23) @ Boise State (20-11)	Boise State (89.4%)	11:30 PM	16
11:30 PM San José State @ Boise State 8-23 vs 20-11 San José State 10.6% Boise State 89.4% Model Pick Boise State 89.4% Pick Spread Boise State -14.5 Home ML -1500 Away ML +775 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.3% MODEL PROB 89.4% VEGAS TRUE 89.1% VEGAS JUICED 93.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE San José State 65 vs Boise State 85 Total 150.0 Margin +19.6 Spread FAV COVERS @65% Diff +5.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 145.5 @64%
South Carolina (13-18) @ Oklahoma (17-14)	Oklahoma (74.2%)	09:30 PM	31
09:30 PM South Carolina @ Oklahoma 13-18 vs 17-14 South Carolina 25.8% Oklahoma 74.2% Model Pick Oklahoma 74.2% Pick Spread Oklahoma -8.5 Home ML -340 Away ML +270 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.1% MODEL PROB 74.2% VEGAS TRUE 74.1% VEGAS JUICED 77.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE South Carolina 71 vs Oklahoma 83 Total 153.6 Margin +12.4 Spread FAV COVERS @62% Diff +3.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 149.5 @62%
Fresno State (13-18) @ Colorado State (20-11)	Colorado State (73.8%)	09:00 PM	31
09:00 PM Fresno State @ Colorado State 13-18 vs 20-11 Fresno State 26.2% Colorado State 73.8% Model Pick Colorado State 73.8% Pick Spread Colorado State -8.0 Home ML -300 Away ML +250 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.4% MODEL PROB 73.8% VEGAS TRUE 72.4% VEGAS JUICED 75.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fresno State 61 vs Colorado State 77 Total 137.6 Margin +15.6 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 144.5 @70%
Mississippi State (13-18) @ Auburn (16-15)	Auburn (73.5%)	03:00 PM	32
03:00 PM Mississippi State @ Auburn 13-18 vs 16-15 Mississippi State 26.5% Auburn 73.5% Model Pick Auburn 73.5% Pick Spread Auburn -8.0 Home ML -340 Away ML +270 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.6% MODEL PROB 73.5% VEGAS TRUE 74.1% VEGAS JUICED 77.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Mississippi State 70 vs Auburn 85 Total 155.6 Margin +15.0 Spread FAV COVERS @70% Diff +7.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 159.5 @62%
LSU (15-16) @ Kentucky (19-12)	Kentucky (73.0%)	12:30 PM	32
12:30 PM LSU @ Kentucky 15-16 vs 19-12 LSU 27.0% Kentucky 73.0% Model Pick Kentucky 73.0% Pick Spread Kentucky -8.5 Home ML -400 Away ML +300 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -3.2% MODEL PROB 73.0% VEGAS TRUE 76.2% VEGAS JUICED 80.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE LSU 65 vs Kentucky 81 Total 146.8 Margin +16.0 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.5 @64%
Cal Poly (14-18) @ UC San Diego (22-10)	UC San Diego (70.8%)	09:00 PM	34
09:00 PM +4.5% EDGE Cal Poly @ UC San Diego 14-18 vs 22-10 Cal Poly 29.2% UC San Diego 70.8% Model Pick UC San Diego 70.8% Pick Spread UC San Diego -6.0 Home ML -225 Away ML +185 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.5% MODEL PROB 70.8% VEGAS TRUE 66.4% VEGAS JUICED 69.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cal Poly 68 vs UC San Diego 84 Total 151.9 Margin +15.3 Spread FAV COVERS @77% Diff +9.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.5 @75%
USC (18-13) @ Washington (15-16)	Washington (68.9%)	02:30 PM	36
02:30 PM CLOSE USC @ Washington 18-13 vs 15-16 USC 31.1% Washington 68.9% Model Pick Washington 68.9% Pick Spread Washington -3.5 Home ML -225 Away ML +185 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.5% MODEL PROB 68.9% VEGAS TRUE 66.4% VEGAS JUICED 69.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE USC 68 vs Washington 80 Total 147.0 Margin +12.0 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 152.5 @66%
Rutgers (13-18) @ Minnesota (15-16)	Minnesota (68.5%)	09:00 PM	36
09:00 PM +4.2% EDGE Rutgers @ Minnesota 13-18 vs 15-16 Rutgers 31.5% Minnesota 68.5% Model Pick Minnesota 68.5% Pick Spread Minnesota -5.5 Home ML -200 Away ML +170 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.2% MODEL PROB 68.5% VEGAS TRUE 64.3% VEGAS JUICED 66.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Rutgers 61 vs Minnesota 76 Total 136.8 Margin +15.0 Spread FAV COVERS @77% Diff +9.5 Vegas O/U BET OVER 135.5 @54%
Ole Miss (12-19) @ Texas (18-13)	Texas (68.2%)	07:00 PM	37
07:00 PM Ole Miss @ Texas 12-19 vs 18-13 Ole Miss 31.8% Texas 68.2% Model Pick Texas 68.2% Pick Spread Texas -6.5 Home ML -260 Away ML +215 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.3% MODEL PROB 68.2% VEGAS TRUE 69.5% VEGAS JUICED 72.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Ole Miss 66 vs Texas 82 Total 148.2 Margin +15.2 Spread FAV COVERS @75% Diff +8.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 145.5 @58%
California (21-10) @ Florida State (17-14)	Florida State (67.7%)	07:00 PM	37
07:00 PM +4.0% EDGE California @ Florida State 21-10 vs 17-14 California 32.3% Florida State 67.7% Model Pick Florida State 67.7% Pick Spread Florida State -4.0 Home ML -195 Away ML +165 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.0% MODEL PROB 67.7% VEGAS TRUE 63.7% VEGAS JUICED 66.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE California 74 vs Florida State 81 Total 154.7 Margin +7.1 Spread FAV COVERS @59% Diff +2.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 152.8 @56%
Loyola Chicago (8-23) @ Richmond (15-16)	Richmond (66.9%)	02:00 PM	38
02:00 PM Loyola Chicago @ Richmond 8-23 vs 15-16 Loyola Chicago 33.1% Richmond 66.9% Model Pick Richmond 66.9% Pick Spread Richmond -4.0 Home ML -220 Away ML +180 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.1% MODEL PROB 66.9% VEGAS TRUE 65.8% VEGAS JUICED 68.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Loyola Chicago 67 vs Richmond 80 Total 147.1 Margin +13.3 Spread FAV COVERS @76% Diff +9.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 141.8 @66%
Wyoming (18-13) @ UNLV (16-15)	UNLV (66.0%)	03:00 PM	39
03:00 PM +4.6% EDGECLOSE Wyoming @ UNLV 18-13 vs 16-15 Wyoming 34.0% UNLV 66.0% Model Pick UNLV 66.0% Pick Spread UNLV -3.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.6% MODEL PROB 66.0% VEGAS TRUE 61.4% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Wyoming 70 vs UNLV 78 Total 147.6 Margin +8.0 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 153.5 @68%
Tulane (17-14) @ Memphis (13-18)	Memphis (65.3%)	07:00 PM	40
07:00 PM +3.9% EDGECLOSE Tulane @ Memphis 17-14 vs 13-18 Tulane 34.7% Memphis 65.3% Model Pick Memphis 65.3% Pick Spread Memphis -3.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.9% MODEL PROB 65.3% VEGAS TRUE 61.4% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Tulane 70 vs Memphis 66 Total 136.8 Margin -4.2 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff +7.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.5 @87%
Delaware State (7-22) @ Morgan State (14-15)	Morgan State (65.2%)	06:00 PM	40
06:00 PM +6.9% EDGECLOSE Delaware State @ Morgan State 7-22 vs 14-15 Delaware State 34.8% Morgan State 65.2% Model Pick Morgan State 65.2% Pick Spread Morgan State -2.0 Home ML -150 Away ML +133 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.9% MODEL PROB 65.2% VEGAS TRUE 58.3% VEGAS JUICED 60.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Delaware State 66 vs Morgan State 76 Total 142.1 Margin +10.1 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.8 @52%
Xavier (14-17) @ Marquette (12-19)	Marquette (64.9%)	06:30 PM	40
06:30 PM Xavier @ Marquette 14-17 vs 12-19 Xavier 35.1% Marquette 64.9% Model Pick Marquette 64.9% Pick Spread Marquette -4.0 Home ML -185 Away ML +160 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.1% MODEL PROB 64.9% VEGAS TRUE 62.8% VEGAS JUICED 64.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Xavier 73 vs Marquette 84 Total 156.9 Margin +10.7 Spread FAV COVERS @70% Diff +6.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 156.5 @51%
Temple (16-15) @ Florida Atlantic (17-14)	Florida Atlantic (64.5%)	09:00 PM	40
09:00 PM +9.2% EDGECLOSE Temple @ Florida Atlantic 16-15 vs 17-14 Temple 35.5% Florida Atlantic 64.5% Model Pick Florida Atlantic 64.5% Pick Spread Florida Atlantic -1.0 Home ML -135 Away ML +115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.2% MODEL PROB 64.5% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Temple 69 vs Florida Atlantic 77 Total 146.2 Margin +8.0 Spread FAV COVERS @70% Diff +6.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.5 @55%
St. Bonaventure (15-16) @ La Salle (9-22)	St. Bonaventure (63.0%)	11:30 AM	42
11:30 AM St. Bonaventure @ La Salle 15-16 vs 9-22 St. Bonaventure 63.0% La Salle 37.0% Model Pick St. Bonaventure 63.0% Pick Spread St. Bonaventure -7.0 Home ML +185 Away ML -225 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -3.3% MODEL PROB 63.0% VEGAS TRUE 66.4% VEGAS JUICED 69.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE St. Bonaventure 75 vs La Salle 69 Total 144.0 Margin -6.0 Spread DOG COVERS @52% Diff -0.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.2 @57%
Georgetown (14-17) @ DePaul (16-15)	DePaul (55.9%)	09:00 PM	49
09:00 PM +3.8% EDGECLOSE Georgetown @ DePaul 14-17 vs 16-15 Georgetown 44.1% DePaul 55.9% Model Pick DePaul 55.9% Pick Spread DePaul -1.5 Home ML -120 Away ML +100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.8% MODEL PROB 55.9% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Georgetown 64 vs DePaul 75 Total 139.1 Margin +10.5 Spread FAV COVERS @76% Diff +9.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 134.0 @65%
UC Santa Barbara (18-13) @ UC Davis (18-13)	UC Santa Barbara (54.2%)	11:30 PM	51
11:30 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis 18-13 vs 18-13 UC Santa Barbara 54.2% UC Davis 45.8% Model Pick UC Santa Barbara 54.2% Pick Spread UC Santa Barbara -5.5 Home ML +185 Away ML -225 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -12.2% MODEL PROB 54.2% VEGAS TRUE 66.4% VEGAS JUICED 69.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UC Santa Barbara 81 vs UC Davis 75 Total 156.1 Margin -5.5 Spread FAV COVERS @50% Diff +0.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 139.5 @90%
Providence (14-17) @ Butler (16-15)	Butler (52.3%) DOG	04:00 PM	53
04:00 PM CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT Providence @ Butler 14-17 vs 16-15 Providence 47.7% Butler 52.3% Model Pick Butler 52.3% Pick Spread Butler +1.5 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.5% MODEL PROB 52.3% VEGAS TRUE 47.8% VEGAS JUICED 50.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Providence 82 vs Butler 88 Total 170.1 Margin +6.3 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 163.2 @70%
Boston University (17-16) @ Lehigh (17-16)	Lehigh (51.2%) DOG	07:00 PM	49
07:00 PM +5.0% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG Boston University @ Lehigh 17-16 vs 17-16 Boston University 48.8% Lehigh 51.2% Model Pick Lehigh 51.2% Pick Spread Lehigh +2.5 Home ML +107 Away ML -127 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.0% MODEL PROB 51.2% VEGAS TRUE 46.2% VEGAS JUICED 48.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Boston University 73 vs Lehigh 79 Total 152.2 Margin +5.4 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +7.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.8 @85%
Tarleton State (14-17) @ Abilene Christian (13-18)	Tarleton State (51.1%)	08:30 PM	54
08:30 PM CLOSE Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian 14-17 vs 13-18 Tarleton State 51.1% Abilene Christian 48.9% Model Pick Tarleton State 51.1% Pick Spread Tarleton State -2.5 Home ML +115 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -4.1% MODEL PROB 51.1% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Tarleton State 74 vs Abilene Christian 67 Total 140.5 Margin -6.5 Spread FAV COVERS @62% Diff +4.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 135.0 @66%

TIERED RECOMMENDATION SYSTEM

⭐ PREMIUM: 80%+ conf, 5+ edge (88.5% win, 69.1% ROI) • ✓ GOOD: 75%+ conf, 7+ edge (82.7% win, 57.9% ROI)

Based on 4,181 game analysis • Updated Feb 9, 2026

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
San José State (8-23) @ Boise State (20-11)	Boise State (89.4%) ⭐ PREMIUM	11:30 PM	16
11:30 PM+5.1 PTS EDGE San José State @ Boise State 8-23 vs 20-11 San José State 10.6% Boise State 89.4% Model Pick Boise State (89.4%) Pick Spread Boise State -14.5 Home ML -1500 Away ML +775 SPREAD EDGE +5.1 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +19.6 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE San José State 65 vs Boise State 85 Total 150.0 Margin +19.6 Spread FAV COVERS @65% Diff +5.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 145.5 @64%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Temple (16-15) @ Florida Atlantic (17-14)	Florida Atlantic (64.5%)	09:00 PM	40
09:00 PM+9.2% EDGE Temple @ Florida Atlantic 16-15 vs 17-14 Temple 35.5% Florida Atlantic 64.5% Model Pick Florida Atlantic 64.5% Pick Spread -1.0 Home ML -135 Away ML +115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.2% MODEL PROB 64.5% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Temple 69 vs Florida Atlantic 77 Total 146.2 Margin +8.0 Spread FAV COVERS @70% Diff +6.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.5 @55%
Delaware State (7-22) @ Morgan State (14-15)	Morgan State (65.2%)	06:00 PM	40
06:00 PM+6.9% EDGE Delaware State @ Morgan State 7-22 vs 14-15 Delaware State 34.8% Morgan State 65.2% Model Pick Morgan State 65.2% Pick Spread -2.0 Home ML -150 Away ML +133 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.9% MODEL PROB 65.2% VEGAS TRUE 58.3% VEGAS JUICED 60.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Delaware State 66 vs Morgan State 76 Total 142.1 Margin +10.1 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.8 @52%
Boston University (17-16) @ Lehigh (17-16)	Lehigh (51.2%) DOG	07:00 PM	49
07:00 PM+5.0% EDGE Boston University @ Lehigh 17-16 vs 17-16 Boston University 48.8% Lehigh 51.2% Model Pick Lehigh 51.2% Pick Spread +2.5 Home ML +107 Away ML -127 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.0% MODEL PROB 51.2% VEGAS TRUE 46.2% VEGAS JUICED 48.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Boston University 73 vs Lehigh 79 Total 152.2 Margin +5.4 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +7.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.8 @85%
Wyoming (18-13) @ UNLV (16-15)	UNLV (66.0%)	03:00 PM	39
03:00 PM+4.6% EDGE Wyoming @ UNLV 18-13 vs 16-15 Wyoming 34.0% UNLV 66.0% Model Pick UNLV 66.0% Pick Spread -3.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.6% MODEL PROB 66.0% VEGAS TRUE 61.4% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Wyoming 70 vs UNLV 78 Total 147.6 Margin +8.0 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 153.5 @68%
Cal Poly (14-18) @ UC San Diego (22-10)	UC San Diego (70.8%)	09:00 PM	34
09:00 PM+4.5% EDGE Cal Poly @ UC San Diego 14-18 vs 22-10 Cal Poly 29.2% UC San Diego 70.8% Model Pick UC San Diego 70.8% Pick Spread -6.0 Home ML -225 Away ML +185 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.5% MODEL PROB 70.8% VEGAS TRUE 66.4% VEGAS JUICED 69.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cal Poly 68 vs UC San Diego 84 Total 151.9 Margin +15.3 Spread FAV COVERS @77% Diff +9.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.5 @75%
Rutgers (13-18) @ Minnesota (15-16)	Minnesota (68.5%)	09:00 PM	36
09:00 PM+4.2% EDGE Rutgers @ Minnesota 13-18 vs 15-16 Rutgers 31.5% Minnesota 68.5% Model Pick Minnesota 68.5% Pick Spread -5.5 Home ML -200 Away ML +170 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.2% MODEL PROB 68.5% VEGAS TRUE 64.3% VEGAS JUICED 66.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Rutgers 61 vs Minnesota 76 Total 136.8 Margin +15.0 Spread FAV COVERS @77% Diff +9.5 Vegas O/U BET OVER 135.5 @54%
California (21-10) @ Florida State (17-14)	Florida State (67.7%)	07:00 PM	37
07:00 PM+4.0% EDGE California @ Florida State 21-10 vs 17-14 California 32.3% Florida State 67.7% Model Pick Florida State 67.7% Pick Spread -4.0 Home ML -195 Away ML +165 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.0% MODEL PROB 67.7% VEGAS TRUE 63.7% VEGAS JUICED 66.1% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE California 74 vs Florida State 81 Total 154.7 Margin +7.1 Spread FAV COVERS @59% Diff +2.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 152.8 @56%
Tulane (17-14) @ Memphis (13-18)	Memphis (65.3%)	07:00 PM	40
07:00 PM+3.9% EDGE Tulane @ Memphis 17-14 vs 13-18 Tulane 34.7% Memphis 65.3% Model Pick Memphis 65.3% Pick Spread -3.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.9% MODEL PROB 65.3% VEGAS TRUE 61.4% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Tulane 70 vs Memphis 66 Total 136.8 Margin -4.2 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff +7.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.5 @87%
Georgetown (14-17) @ DePaul (16-15)	DePaul (55.9%)	09:00 PM	49
09:00 PM+3.8% EDGE Georgetown @ DePaul 14-17 vs 16-15 Georgetown 44.1% DePaul 55.9% Model Pick DePaul 55.9% Pick Spread -1.5 Home ML -120 Away ML +100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.8% MODEL PROB 55.9% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Georgetown 64 vs DePaul 75 Total 139.1 Margin +10.5 Spread FAV COVERS @76% Diff +9.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 134.0 @65%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
USC (18-13) @ Washington (15-16)	Washington (68.9%)	02:30 PM	36
02:30 PMCLOSE USC @ Washington 18-13 vs 15-16 USC 31.1% Washington 68.9% Model Pick Washington 68.9% Pick Spread Washington -3.5 Home ML -225 Away ML +185 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.5% MODEL PROB 68.9% VEGAS TRUE 66.4% VEGAS JUICED 69.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE USC 68 vs Washington 80 Total 147.0 Margin +12.0 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 152.5 @66%
Wyoming (18-13) @ UNLV (16-15)	UNLV (66.0%)	03:00 PM	39
03:00 PMCLOSE Wyoming @ UNLV 18-13 vs 16-15 Wyoming 34.0% UNLV 66.0% Model Pick UNLV 66.0% Pick Spread UNLV -3.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.6% MODEL PROB 66.0% VEGAS TRUE 61.4% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Wyoming 70 vs UNLV 78 Total 147.6 Margin +8.0 Spread FAV COVERS @64% Diff +4.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 153.5 @68%
Tulane (17-14) @ Memphis (13-18)	Memphis (65.3%)	07:00 PM	40
07:00 PMCLOSE Tulane @ Memphis 17-14 vs 13-18 Tulane 34.7% Memphis 65.3% Model Pick Memphis 65.3% Pick Spread Memphis -3.5 Home ML -175 Away ML +150 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.9% MODEL PROB 65.3% VEGAS TRUE 61.4% VEGAS JUICED 63.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Tulane 70 vs Memphis 66 Total 136.8 Margin -4.2 Spread DOG COVERS @72% Diff +7.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 151.5 @87%
Delaware State (7-22) @ Morgan State (14-15)	Morgan State (65.2%)	06:00 PM	40
06:00 PMCLOSE Delaware State @ Morgan State 7-22 vs 14-15 Delaware State 34.8% Morgan State 65.2% Model Pick Morgan State 65.2% Pick Spread Morgan State -2.0 Home ML -150 Away ML +133 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.9% MODEL PROB 65.2% VEGAS TRUE 58.3% VEGAS JUICED 60.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Delaware State 66 vs Morgan State 76 Total 142.1 Margin +10.1 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.8 @52%
Temple (16-15) @ Florida Atlantic (17-14)	Florida Atlantic (64.5%)	09:00 PM	40
09:00 PMCLOSE Temple @ Florida Atlantic 16-15 vs 17-14 Temple 35.5% Florida Atlantic 64.5% Model Pick Florida Atlantic 64.5% Pick Spread Florida Atlantic -1.0 Home ML -135 Away ML +115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.2% MODEL PROB 64.5% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Temple 69 vs Florida Atlantic 77 Total 146.2 Margin +8.0 Spread FAV COVERS @70% Diff +6.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.5 @55%
Georgetown (14-17) @ DePaul (16-15)	DePaul (55.9%)	09:00 PM	49
09:00 PMCLOSE Georgetown @ DePaul 14-17 vs 16-15 Georgetown 44.1% DePaul 55.9% Model Pick DePaul 55.9% Pick Spread DePaul -1.5 Home ML -120 Away ML +100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.8% MODEL PROB 55.9% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Georgetown 64 vs DePaul 75 Total 139.1 Margin +10.5 Spread FAV COVERS @76% Diff +9.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 134.0 @65%
Providence (14-17) @ Butler (16-15)	Butler (52.3%) DOG	04:00 PM	53
04:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Providence @ Butler 14-17 vs 16-15 Providence 47.7% Butler 52.3% Model Pick Butler 52.3% Pick Spread Butler +1.5 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.5% MODEL PROB 52.3% VEGAS TRUE 47.8% VEGAS JUICED 50.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Providence 82 vs Butler 88 Total 170.1 Margin +6.3 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 163.2 @70%
Boston University (17-16) @ Lehigh (17-16)	Lehigh (51.2%) DOG	07:00 PM	49
07:00 PMCLOSE Boston University @ Lehigh 17-16 vs 17-16 Boston University 48.8% Lehigh 51.2% Model Pick Lehigh 51.2% Pick Spread Lehigh +2.5 Home ML +107 Away ML -127 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.0% MODEL PROB 51.2% VEGAS TRUE 46.2% VEGAS JUICED 48.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Boston University 73 vs Lehigh 79 Total 152.2 Margin +5.4 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +7.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.8 @85%
Tarleton State (14-17) @ Abilene Christian (13-18)	Tarleton State (51.1%)	08:30 PM	54
08:30 PMCLOSE Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian 14-17 vs 13-18 Tarleton State 51.1% Abilene Christian 48.9% Model Pick Tarleton State 51.1% Pick Spread Tarleton State -2.5 Home ML +115 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -4.1% MODEL PROB 51.1% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Tarleton State 74 vs Abilene Christian 67 Total 140.5 Margin -6.5 Spread FAV COVERS @62% Diff +4.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 135.0 @66%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Providence (14-17) @ Butler (16-15)	Butler (52.3%) DOG	+4.5%	04:00 PM	53
04:00 PMUNDERDOG MLSIGNAL CONFLICT Providence @ Butler 14-17 vs 16-15 Providence 47.7% Butler 52.3% Model Pick Butler 52.3% Pick Spread Butler +1.5 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.5% MODEL PROB 52.3% VEGAS TRUE 47.8% VEGAS JUICED 50.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Providence 82 vs Butler 88 Total 170.1 Margin +6.3 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 163.2 @70%
Boston University (17-16) @ Lehigh (17-16)	Lehigh (51.2%) DOG	+5.0%	07:00 PM	49
07:00 PMUNDERDOG ML Boston University @ Lehigh 17-16 vs 17-16 Boston University 48.8% Lehigh 51.2% Model Pick Lehigh 51.2% Pick Spread Lehigh +2.5 Home ML +107 Away ML -127 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.0% MODEL PROB 51.2% VEGAS TRUE 46.2% VEGAS JUICED 48.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Boston University 73 vs Lehigh 79 Total 152.2 Margin +5.4 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +7.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.8 @85%

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
UC Davis vs UC Santa Barbara	UC Davis DOG	45.8%	+185	⭐⭐⭐ +30.6%	11:30 PM
Florida Atlantic vs Temple	Florida Atlantic FAV	64.5%	-135	⭐⭐ +12.3%	09:00 PM
Morgan State vs Delaware State	Morgan State FAV	65.2%	-150	⭐ +8.7%	06:00 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Temple (16-15) @ Florida Atlantic (17-14)	Florida Atlantic (64.5%)	+9.2%	09:00 PM	40
09:00 PM+9.2% EDGE Temple @ Florida Atlantic 16-15 vs 17-14 Temple 35.5% Florida Atlantic 64.5% Model Pick Florida Atlantic 64.5% Pick Spread -1.0 Home ML -135 Away ML +115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.2% MODEL PROB 64.5% VEGAS TRUE 55.3% VEGAS JUICED 57.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Temple 69 vs Florida Atlantic 77 Total 146.2 Margin +8.0 Spread FAV COVERS @70% Diff +6.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.5 @55%
Delaware State (7-22) @ Morgan State (14-15)	Morgan State (65.2%)	+6.9%	06:00 PM	40
06:00 PM+6.9% EDGE Delaware State @ Morgan State 7-22 vs 14-15 Delaware State 34.8% Morgan State 65.2% Model Pick Morgan State 65.2% Pick Spread -2.0 Home ML -150 Away ML +133 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.9% MODEL PROB 65.2% VEGAS TRUE 58.3% VEGAS JUICED 60.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Delaware State 66 vs Morgan State 76 Total 142.1 Margin +10.1 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.8 @52%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level