Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
Charlotte (17-17) @ South Florida (25-8)	South Florida (85.5%)	03:00 PM	30
03:00 PM Charlotte @ South Florida 17-17 vs 25-8 Charlotte 14.5% South Florida 85.5% Model Pick South Florida 85.5% Pick Spread South Florida -14.5 Home ML -1425 Away ML +800 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -3.9% MODEL PROB 85.5% VEGAS TRUE 89.4% VEGAS JUICED 93.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Charlotte 76 vs South Florida 81 Total 156.6 Margin +5.6 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff -8.9 Vegas O/U BET OVER 152.5 @62%
Wisconsin #23 (24-10) @ Michigan #3 (31-3)	Michigan (85.1%)	01:00 PM	70
01:00 PM Wisconsin #23 @ Michigan #3 24-10 vs 31-3 Wisconsin 14.9% Michigan 85.1% Model Pick Michigan 85.1% Pick Spread Michigan -13.0 Home ML -825 Away ML +550 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.2% MODEL PROB 85.1% VEGAS TRUE 85.3% VEGAS JUICED 89.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Wisconsin 73 vs Michigan 81 Total 154.1 Margin +7.3 Spread DOG COVERS @66% Diff -5.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.5 @69%
North Carolina Central (14-18) @ Howard (24-10)	Howard (76.4%)	01:00 PM	39
01:00 PM North Carolina Central @ Howard 14-18 vs 24-10 North Carolina Central 23.6% Howard 76.4% Model Pick Howard 76.4% Pick Spread Howard -11.0 Home ML -875 Away ML +575 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -9.4% MODEL PROB 76.4% VEGAS TRUE 85.8% VEGAS JUICED 89.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE North Carolina Central 70 vs Howard 72 Total 141.8 Margin +1.6 Spread DOG COVERS @77% Diff -9.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 143.5 @55%
Ole Miss (15-20) @ Arkansas #17 (26-8)	Arkansas (74.3%)	03:30 PM	56
03:30 PM Ole Miss @ Arkansas #17 15-20 vs 26-8 Ole Miss 25.7% Arkansas 74.3% Model Pick Arkansas 74.3% Pick Spread Arkansas -9.5 Home ML -420 Away ML +320 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.9% MODEL PROB 74.3% VEGAS TRUE 77.2% VEGAS JUICED 80.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Ole Miss 74 vs Arkansas 80 Total 153.5 Margin +6.1 Spread DOG COVERS @60% Diff -3.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 157.5 @62%
Virginia #10 (29-5) @ Duke #1 (32-2)	Duke (70.8%)	08:30 PM	89
08:30 PM Virginia #10 @ Duke #1 29-5 vs 32-2 Virginia 29.2% Duke 70.8% Model Pick Duke 70.8% Pick Spread Duke -7.0 Home ML -397 Away ML +305 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -5.6% MODEL PROB 70.8% VEGAS TRUE 76.4% VEGAS JUICED 79.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Virginia 69 vs Duke 73 Total 141.5 Margin +4.1 Spread DOG COVERS @60% Diff -3.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.5 @62%
Vanderbilt #22 (26-8) @ Florida #4 (26-7)	Florida (70.7%)	01:00 PM	84
01:00 PM Vanderbilt #22 @ Florida #4 26-8 vs 26-7 Vanderbilt 29.3% Florida 70.7% Model Pick Florida 70.7% Pick Spread Florida -8.5 Home ML -385 Away ML +295 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -5.1% MODEL PROB 70.7% VEGAS TRUE 75.8% VEGAS JUICED 79.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Vanderbilt 78 vs Florida 80 Total 158.0 Margin +1.8 Spread DOG COVERS @70% Diff -6.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.5 @58%
Toledo (19-15) @ Akron (29-5)	Akron (70.3%)	08:00 PM	45
08:00 PM Toledo @ Akron 19-15 vs 29-5 Toledo 29.7% Akron 70.3% Model Pick Akron 70.3% Pick Spread Akron -8.0 Home ML -327 Away ML +260 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -3.1% MODEL PROB 70.3% VEGAS TRUE 73.4% VEGAS JUICED 76.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Toledo 78 vs Akron 83 Total 161.2 Margin +4.2 Spread DOG COVERS @62% Diff -4.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 158.5 @58%
Saint Joseph's (22-11) @ VCU (27-7)	VCU (67.2%)	03:30 PM	58
03:30 PM Saint Joseph's @ VCU 22-11 vs 27-7 Saint Joseph's 32.8% VCU 67.2% Model Pick VCU 67.2% Pick Spread VCU -7.0 Home ML -265 Away ML +217 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.6% MODEL PROB 67.2% VEGAS TRUE 69.7% VEGAS JUICED 72.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Saint Joseph's 71 vs VCU 75 Total 145.6 Margin +4.0 Spread DOG COVERS @58% Diff -2.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.8 @53%
Dayton (23-11) @ Saint Louis (28-5)	Saint Louis (67.0%)	01:00 PM	58
01:00 PM Dayton @ Saint Louis 23-11 vs 28-5 Dayton 33.0% Saint Louis 67.0% Model Pick Saint Louis 67.0% Pick Spread Saint Louis -5.5 Home ML -257 Away ML +210 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.1% MODEL PROB 67.0% VEGAS TRUE 69.1% VEGAS JUICED 72.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Dayton 74 vs Saint Louis 80 Total 153.4 Margin +5.8 Spread FAV COVERS @51% Diff +0.3 Vegas O/U BET OVER 145.8 @72%
Purdue #18 (27-8) @ UCLA (23-11)	Purdue (64.6%)	03:30 PM	75
03:30 PM Purdue #18 @ UCLA 27-8 vs 23-11 Purdue 64.6% UCLA 35.4% Model Pick Purdue 64.6% Pick Spread Purdue -7.5 Home ML +247 Away ML -305 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -7.8% MODEL PROB 64.6% VEGAS TRUE 72.4% VEGAS JUICED 75.3% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Purdue 72 vs UCLA 73 Total 145.4 Margin +0.4 Spread DOG COVERS @73% Diff +7.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 145.5 @50%
Hawai'i (24-8) @ UC Irvine (23-12)	UC Irvine (61.9%)	10:00 PM	63
10:00 PM +7.6% EDGECLOSE Hawai'i @ UC Irvine 24-8 vs 23-12 Hawai'i 38.1% UC Irvine 61.9% Model Pick UC Irvine 61.9% Pick Spread UC Irvine -2.5 Home ML -127 Away ML +112 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.6% MODEL PROB 61.9% VEGAS TRUE 54.4% VEGAS JUICED 56.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Hawai'i 73 vs UC Irvine 70 Total 143.3 Margin -2.3 Spread DOG COVERS @64% Diff +4.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 139.2 @62%
Prairie View A&M (18-17) @ Southern (17-17)	Southern (61.2%)	07:30 PM	44
07:30 PM +3.6% EDGECLOSE Prairie View A&M @ Southern 18-17 vs 17-17 Prairie View A&M 38.8% Southern 61.2% Model Pick Southern 61.2% Pick Spread Southern -3.0 Home ML -149 Away ML +127 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.6% MODEL PROB 61.2% VEGAS TRUE 57.6% VEGAS JUICED 59.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Prairie View A&M 77 vs Southern 76 Total 152.8 Margin -0.8 Spread DOG COVERS @62% Diff +4.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 146.8 @68%
California Baptist (25-8) @ Utah Valley (25-8)	Utah Valley (60.5%)	11:59 PM	64
11:59 PM CLOSE California Baptist @ Utah Valley 25-8 vs 25-8 California Baptist 39.5% Utah Valley 60.5% Model Pick Utah Valley 60.5% Pick Spread Utah Valley -3.0 Home ML -149 Away ML +127 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.9% MODEL PROB 60.5% VEGAS TRUE 57.6% VEGAS JUICED 59.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE California Baptist 70 vs Utah Valley 69 Total 138.4 Margin -0.6 Spread DOG COVERS @61% Diff +3.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.0 @54%
Pennsylvania (18-11) @ Harvard (17-12)	Harvard (60.4%)	02:00 PM	45
02:00 PM CLOSE Pennsylvania @ Harvard 18-11 vs 17-12 Pennsylvania 39.6% Harvard 60.4% Model Pick Harvard 60.4% Pick Spread Harvard -3.0 Home ML -152 Away ML +130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.3% MODEL PROB 60.4% VEGAS TRUE 58.1% VEGAS JUICED 60.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Pennsylvania 72 vs Harvard 71 Total 143.2 Margin -0.4 Spread DOG COVERS @60% Diff +3.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 136.8 @69%
Cornell (15-13) @ Yale (24-7)	Yale (58.4%)	11:00 AM	57
11:00 AM SIGNAL CONFLICT Cornell @ Yale 15-13 vs 24-7 Cornell 41.6% Yale 58.4% Model Pick Yale 58.4% Pick Spread Yale -4.5 Home ML -181 Away ML +152 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -3.5% MODEL PROB 58.4% VEGAS TRUE 61.9% VEGAS JUICED 64.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cornell 82 vs Yale 84 Total 165.3 Margin +1.9 Spread DOG COVERS @58% Diff -2.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 163.5 @56%
San Diego State (22-11) @ Utah State (28-6)	Utah State (58.2%)	06:00 PM	67
06:00 PM +6.1% EDGECLOSE San Diego State @ Utah State 22-11 vs 28-6 San Diego State 41.8% Utah State 58.2% Model Pick Utah State 58.2% Pick Spread Utah State -1.5 Home ML -120 Away ML +100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.1% MODEL PROB 58.2% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE San Diego State 74 vs Utah State 73 Total 147.5 Margin -0.7 Spread DOG COVERS @57% Diff +2.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.0 @61%
Houston #5 (28-6) @ Arizona #2 (32-2)	Arizona (55.4%)	06:00 PM	100
06:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Houston #5 @ Arizona #2 28-6 vs 32-2 Houston 44.6% Arizona 55.4% Model Pick Arizona 55.4% Pick Spread Arizona -2.5 Home ML -149 Away ML +127 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.2% MODEL PROB 55.4% VEGAS TRUE 57.6% VEGAS JUICED 59.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston 73 vs Arizona 79 Total 152.5 Margin +5.9 Spread FAV COVERS @60% Diff +3.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.5 @88%
Vermont (22-12) @ UMBC (24-9)	UMBC (54.6%)	11:00 AM	65
11:00 AM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Vermont @ UMBC 22-12 vs 24-9 Vermont 45.4% UMBC 54.6% Model Pick UMBC 54.6% Pick Spread UMBC -3.5 Home ML -142 Away ML +120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.7% MODEL PROB 54.6% VEGAS TRUE 56.3% VEGAS JUICED 58.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Vermont 70 vs UMBC 67 Total 136.8 Margin -3.0 Spread DOG COVERS @69% Diff +6.5 Vegas O/U BET OVER 134.5 @57%
Tulsa (27-7) @ Wichita State (23-11)	Wichita State (53.6%)	05:30 PM	71
05:30 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Tulsa @ Wichita State 27-7 vs 23-11 Tulsa 46.4% Wichita State 53.6% Model Pick Wichita State 53.6% Pick Spread Wichita State -1.5 Home ML -115 Away ML -112 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.4% MODEL PROB 53.6% VEGAS TRUE 50.3% VEGAS JUICED 53.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Tulsa 80 vs Wichita State 75 Total 154.6 Margin -5.2 Spread DOG COVERS @70% Diff +6.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 149.2 @66%
UConn #6 (29-5) @ St. John's #13 (28-6)	UConn (50.8%)	06:30 PM	99
06:30 PM CLOSE UConn #6 @ St. John's #13 29-5 vs 28-6 UConn 50.8% St. John's 49.2% Model Pick UConn 50.8% Pick Spread UConn -3.0 Home ML +127 Away ML -149 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -6.8% MODEL PROB 50.8% VEGAS TRUE 57.6% VEGAS JUICED 59.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UConn 72 vs St. John's 74 Total 146.5 Margin +2.1 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff +5.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 139.5 @70%
Kennesaw State (21-13) @ Louisiana Tech (20-14)	Louisiana Tech (50.8%) DOG	08:30 PM	54
08:30 PM CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT Kennesaw State @ Louisiana Tech 21-13 vs 20-14 Kennesaw State 49.2% Louisiana Tech 50.8% Model Pick Louisiana Tech 50.8% Pick Spread Louisiana Tech +2.5 Home ML +105 Away ML -125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.0% MODEL PROB 50.8% VEGAS TRUE 46.8% VEGAS JUICED 48.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Kennesaw State 71 vs Louisiana Tech 71 Total 141.9 Margin +0.1 Spread DOG COVERS @58% Diff +2.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 139.8 @57%

TIERED RECOMMENDATION SYSTEM

⭐ PREMIUM: 80%+ conf, 5+ edge (88.5% win, 69.1% ROI) • ✓ GOOD: 75%+ conf, 7+ edge (82.7% win, 57.9% ROI)

Based on 4,181 game analysis • Updated Feb 9, 2026

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Hawai'i (24-8) @ UC Irvine (23-12)	UC Irvine (61.9%)	10:00 PM	63
10:00 PM+7.6% EDGE Hawai'i @ UC Irvine 24-8 vs 23-12 Hawai'i 38.1% UC Irvine 61.9% Model Pick UC Irvine 61.9% Pick Spread -2.5 Home ML -127 Away ML +112 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.6% MODEL PROB 61.9% VEGAS TRUE 54.4% VEGAS JUICED 56.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Hawai'i 73 vs UC Irvine 70 Total 143.3 Margin -2.3 Spread DOG COVERS @64% Diff +4.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 139.2 @62%
San Diego State (22-11) @ Utah State (28-6)	Utah State (58.2%)	06:00 PM	67
06:00 PM+6.1% EDGE San Diego State @ Utah State 22-11 vs 28-6 San Diego State 41.8% Utah State 58.2% Model Pick Utah State 58.2% Pick Spread -1.5 Home ML -120 Away ML +100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.1% MODEL PROB 58.2% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE San Diego State 74 vs Utah State 73 Total 147.5 Margin -0.7 Spread DOG COVERS @57% Diff +2.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.0 @61%
Prairie View A&M (18-17) @ Southern (17-17)	Southern (61.2%)	07:30 PM	44
07:30 PM+3.6% EDGE Prairie View A&M @ Southern 18-17 vs 17-17 Prairie View A&M 38.8% Southern 61.2% Model Pick Southern 61.2% Pick Spread -3.0 Home ML -149 Away ML +127 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.6% MODEL PROB 61.2% VEGAS TRUE 57.6% VEGAS JUICED 59.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Prairie View A&M 77 vs Southern 76 Total 152.8 Margin -0.8 Spread DOG COVERS @62% Diff +4.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 146.8 @68%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Hawai'i (24-8) @ UC Irvine (23-12)	UC Irvine (61.9%)	10:00 PM	63
10:00 PMCLOSE Hawai'i @ UC Irvine 24-8 vs 23-12 Hawai'i 38.1% UC Irvine 61.9% Model Pick UC Irvine 61.9% Pick Spread UC Irvine -2.5 Home ML -127 Away ML +112 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.6% MODEL PROB 61.9% VEGAS TRUE 54.4% VEGAS JUICED 56.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Hawai'i 73 vs UC Irvine 70 Total 143.3 Margin -2.3 Spread DOG COVERS @64% Diff +4.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 139.2 @62%
Prairie View A&M (18-17) @ Southern (17-17)	Southern (61.2%)	07:30 PM	44
07:30 PMCLOSE Prairie View A&M @ Southern 18-17 vs 17-17 Prairie View A&M 38.8% Southern 61.2% Model Pick Southern 61.2% Pick Spread Southern -3.0 Home ML -149 Away ML +127 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.6% MODEL PROB 61.2% VEGAS TRUE 57.6% VEGAS JUICED 59.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Prairie View A&M 77 vs Southern 76 Total 152.8 Margin -0.8 Spread DOG COVERS @62% Diff +4.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 146.8 @68%
California Baptist (25-8) @ Utah Valley (25-8)	Utah Valley (60.5%)	11:59 PM	64
11:59 PMCLOSE California Baptist @ Utah Valley 25-8 vs 25-8 California Baptist 39.5% Utah Valley 60.5% Model Pick Utah Valley 60.5% Pick Spread Utah Valley -3.0 Home ML -149 Away ML +127 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.9% MODEL PROB 60.5% VEGAS TRUE 57.6% VEGAS JUICED 59.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE California Baptist 70 vs Utah Valley 69 Total 138.4 Margin -0.6 Spread DOG COVERS @61% Diff +3.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.0 @54%
Pennsylvania (18-11) @ Harvard (17-12)	Harvard (60.4%)	02:00 PM	45
02:00 PMCLOSE Pennsylvania @ Harvard 18-11 vs 17-12 Pennsylvania 39.6% Harvard 60.4% Model Pick Harvard 60.4% Pick Spread Harvard -3.0 Home ML -152 Away ML +130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.3% MODEL PROB 60.4% VEGAS TRUE 58.1% VEGAS JUICED 60.4% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Pennsylvania 72 vs Harvard 71 Total 143.2 Margin -0.4 Spread DOG COVERS @60% Diff +3.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 136.8 @69%
San Diego State (22-11) @ Utah State (28-6)	Utah State (58.2%)	06:00 PM	67
06:00 PMCLOSE San Diego State @ Utah State 22-11 vs 28-6 San Diego State 41.8% Utah State 58.2% Model Pick Utah State 58.2% Pick Spread Utah State -1.5 Home ML -120 Away ML +100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.1% MODEL PROB 58.2% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE San Diego State 74 vs Utah State 73 Total 147.5 Margin -0.7 Spread DOG COVERS @57% Diff +2.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.0 @61%
Houston #5 (28-6) @ Arizona #2 (32-2)	Arizona (55.4%)	06:00 PM	100
06:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Houston #5 @ Arizona #2 28-6 vs 32-2 Houston 44.6% Arizona 55.4% Model Pick Arizona 55.4% Pick Spread Arizona -2.5 Home ML -149 Away ML +127 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.2% MODEL PROB 55.4% VEGAS TRUE 57.6% VEGAS JUICED 59.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Houston 73 vs Arizona 79 Total 152.5 Margin +5.9 Spread FAV COVERS @60% Diff +3.4 Vegas O/U BET OVER 137.5 @88%
Vermont (22-12) @ UMBC (24-9)	UMBC (54.6%)	11:00 AM	65
11:00 AMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Vermont @ UMBC 22-12 vs 24-9 Vermont 45.4% UMBC 54.6% Model Pick UMBC 54.6% Pick Spread UMBC -3.5 Home ML -142 Away ML +120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.7% MODEL PROB 54.6% VEGAS TRUE 56.3% VEGAS JUICED 58.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Vermont 70 vs UMBC 67 Total 136.8 Margin -3.0 Spread DOG COVERS @69% Diff +6.5 Vegas O/U BET OVER 134.5 @57%
Tulsa (27-7) @ Wichita State (23-11)	Wichita State (53.6%)	05:30 PM	71
05:30 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Tulsa @ Wichita State 27-7 vs 23-11 Tulsa 46.4% Wichita State 53.6% Model Pick Wichita State 53.6% Pick Spread Wichita State -1.5 Home ML -115 Away ML -112 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.4% MODEL PROB 53.6% VEGAS TRUE 50.3% VEGAS JUICED 53.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Tulsa 80 vs Wichita State 75 Total 154.6 Margin -5.2 Spread DOG COVERS @70% Diff +6.7 Vegas O/U BET OVER 149.2 @66%
UConn #6 (29-5) @ St. John's #13 (28-6)	UConn (50.8%)	06:30 PM	99
06:30 PMCLOSE UConn #6 @ St. John's #13 29-5 vs 28-6 UConn 50.8% St. John's 49.2% Model Pick UConn 50.8% Pick Spread UConn -3.0 Home ML +127 Away ML -149 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -6.8% MODEL PROB 50.8% VEGAS TRUE 57.6% VEGAS JUICED 59.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UConn 72 vs St. John's 74 Total 146.5 Margin +2.1 Spread DOG COVERS @65% Diff +5.1 Vegas O/U BET OVER 139.5 @70%
Kennesaw State (21-13) @ Louisiana Tech (20-14)	Louisiana Tech (50.8%) DOG	08:30 PM	54
08:30 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Kennesaw State @ Louisiana Tech 21-13 vs 20-14 Kennesaw State 49.2% Louisiana Tech 50.8% Model Pick Louisiana Tech 50.8% Pick Spread Louisiana Tech +2.5 Home ML +105 Away ML -125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.0% MODEL PROB 50.8% VEGAS TRUE 46.8% VEGAS JUICED 48.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Kennesaw State 71 vs Louisiana Tech 71 Total 141.9 Margin +0.1 Spread DOG COVERS @58% Diff +2.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 139.8 @57%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Kennesaw State (21-13) @ Louisiana Tech (20-14)	Louisiana Tech (50.8%) DOG	+4.0%	08:30 PM	54
08:30 PMUNDERDOG MLSIGNAL CONFLICT Kennesaw State @ Louisiana Tech 21-13 vs 20-14 Kennesaw State 49.2% Louisiana Tech 50.8% Model Pick Louisiana Tech 50.8% Pick Spread Louisiana Tech +2.5 Home ML +105 Away ML -125 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.0% MODEL PROB 50.8% VEGAS TRUE 46.8% VEGAS JUICED 48.8% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Kennesaw State 71 vs Louisiana Tech 71 Total 141.9 Margin +0.1 Spread DOG COVERS @58% Diff +2.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 139.8 @57%

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
North Carolina Central @ Howard	North Carolina Central DOG	23.6%	+575	⭐⭐⭐ +59.1%	01:00 PM
Charlotte @ South Florida	Charlotte DOG	14.5%	+800	⭐⭐⭐ +30.5%	03:00 PM
UCLA vs Purdue	UCLA DOG	35.4%	+247	⭐⭐⭐ +23.0%	03:30 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Hawai'i (24-8) @ UC Irvine (23-12)	UC Irvine (61.9%)	+7.6%	10:00 PM	63
10:00 PM+7.6% EDGE Hawai'i @ UC Irvine 24-8 vs 23-12 Hawai'i 38.1% UC Irvine 61.9% Model Pick UC Irvine 61.9% Pick Spread -2.5 Home ML -127 Away ML +112 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.6% MODEL PROB 61.9% VEGAS TRUE 54.4% VEGAS JUICED 56.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Hawai'i 73 vs UC Irvine 70 Total 143.3 Margin -2.3 Spread DOG COVERS @64% Diff +4.8 Vegas O/U BET OVER 139.2 @62%
San Diego State (22-11) @ Utah State (28-6)	Utah State (58.2%)	+6.1%	06:00 PM	67
06:00 PM+6.1% EDGE San Diego State @ Utah State 22-11 vs 28-6 San Diego State 41.8% Utah State 58.2% Model Pick Utah State 58.2% Pick Spread -1.5 Home ML -120 Away ML +100 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.1% MODEL PROB 58.2% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE San Diego State 74 vs Utah State 73 Total 147.5 Margin -0.7 Spread DOG COVERS @57% Diff +2.2 Vegas O/U BET OVER 144.0 @61%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Model Information

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Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

XGBoost Win/Loss Model