Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Sunday, March 15, 2026

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
Pennsylvania (17-11) @ Yale (24-5)	Yale (76.7%)	12:00 PM	48
12:00 PM Pennsylvania @ Yale 17-11 vs 24-5 Pennsylvania 23.3% Yale 76.7% Model Pick Yale 76.7% Pick Spread Yale -9.5 Home ML -547 Away ML +395 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -4.0% MODEL PROB 76.7% VEGAS TRUE 80.7% VEGAS JUICED 84.6%
Purdue #18 (26-8) @ Michigan #3 (31-2)	Michigan (70.7%)	03:30 PM	84
03:30 PM Purdue #18 @ Michigan #3 26-8 vs 31-2 Purdue 29.3% Michigan 70.7% Model Pick Michigan 70.7% Pick Spread Michigan -5.5 Home ML -279 Away ML +227 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.1% MODEL PROB 70.7% VEGAS TRUE 70.7% VEGAS JUICED 73.6%
Wichita State (22-10) @ South Florida (24-8)	South Florida (69.9%)	03:15 PM	55
03:15 PM Wichita State @ South Florida 22-10 vs 24-8 Wichita State 30.1% South Florida 69.9% Model Pick South Florida 69.9% Pick Spread South Florida -6.0 Home ML -252 Away ML +207 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.2% MODEL PROB 69.9% VEGAS TRUE 68.8% VEGAS JUICED 71.6%
Dayton (23-10) @ VCU (26-7)	VCU (63.0%)	01:00 PM	62
01:00 PM +4.3% EDGECLOSE Dayton @ VCU 23-10 vs 26-7 Dayton 37.0% VCU 63.0% Model Pick VCU 63.0% Pick Spread VCU -3.0 Home ML -156 Away ML +133 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.3% MODEL PROB 63.0% VEGAS TRUE 58.7% VEGAS JUICED 60.9%
Vanderbilt #22 (26-7) @ Arkansas #17 (25-8)	Arkansas (52.9%) DOG	01:00 PM	100
01:00 PM +10.1% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG Vanderbilt #22 @ Arkansas #17 26-7 vs 25-8 Vanderbilt 47.1% Arkansas 52.9% Model Pick Arkansas 52.9% Pick Spread Arkansas +2.0 Home ML +124 Away ML -146 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.1% MODEL PROB 52.9% VEGAS TRUE 42.8% VEGAS JUICED 44.5%

TIERED RECOMMENDATION SYSTEM

⭐ PREMIUM: 80%+ conf, 5+ edge (88.5% win, 69.1% ROI) • ✓ GOOD: 75%+ conf, 7+ edge (82.7% win, 57.9% ROI)

Based on 4,181 game analysis • Updated Feb 9, 2026

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Pennsylvania (17-11) @ Yale (24-5)	Yale (76.7%)	12:00 PM	48
12:00 PM Pennsylvania @ Yale 17-11 vs 24-5 Pennsylvania 23.3% Yale 76.7% Model Pick Yale (76.7%) Pick Spread Yale -9.5 Home ML -547 Away ML +395 SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Vanderbilt #22 (26-7) @ Arkansas #17 (25-8)	Arkansas (52.9%) DOG	01:00 PM	100
01:00 PM+10.1% EDGE Vanderbilt #22 @ Arkansas #17 26-7 vs 25-8 Vanderbilt 47.1% Arkansas 52.9% Model Pick Arkansas 52.9% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +124 Away ML -146 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.1% MODEL PROB 52.9% VEGAS TRUE 42.8% VEGAS JUICED 44.5%
Dayton (23-10) @ VCU (26-7)	VCU (63.0%)	01:00 PM	62
01:00 PM+4.3% EDGE Dayton @ VCU 23-10 vs 26-7 Dayton 37.0% VCU 63.0% Model Pick VCU 63.0% Pick Spread -3.0 Home ML -156 Away ML +133 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.3% MODEL PROB 63.0% VEGAS TRUE 58.7% VEGAS JUICED 60.9%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Dayton (23-10) @ VCU (26-7)	VCU (63.0%)	01:00 PM	62
01:00 PMCLOSE Dayton @ VCU 23-10 vs 26-7 Dayton 37.0% VCU 63.0% Model Pick VCU 63.0% Pick Spread VCU -3.0 Home ML -156 Away ML +133 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.3% MODEL PROB 63.0% VEGAS TRUE 58.7% VEGAS JUICED 60.9%
Vanderbilt #22 (26-7) @ Arkansas #17 (25-8)	Arkansas (52.9%) DOG	01:00 PM	100
01:00 PMCLOSE Vanderbilt #22 @ Arkansas #17 26-7 vs 25-8 Vanderbilt 47.1% Arkansas 52.9% Model Pick Arkansas 52.9% Pick Spread Arkansas +2.0 Home ML +124 Away ML -146 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.1% MODEL PROB 52.9% VEGAS TRUE 42.8% VEGAS JUICED 44.5%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Vanderbilt #22 (26-7) @ Arkansas #17 (25-8)	Arkansas (52.9%) DOG	+10.1%	01:00 PM	100
01:00 PMUNDERDOG ML Vanderbilt #22 @ Arkansas #17 26-7 vs 25-8 Vanderbilt 47.1% Arkansas 52.9% Model Pick Arkansas 52.9% Pick Spread Arkansas +2.0 Home ML +124 Away ML -146 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.1% MODEL PROB 52.9% VEGAS TRUE 42.8% VEGAS JUICED 44.5%

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
Arkansas vs Vanderbilt	Arkansas DOG	52.9%	+124	⭐⭐ +18.8%	01:00 PM
Pennsylvania @ Yale	Pennsylvania DOG	23.3%	+395	⭐⭐ +15.4%	12:00 PM
VCU vs Dayton	VCU FAV	63.0%	-156	⭐ +3.3%	01:00 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Vanderbilt #22 (26-7) @ Arkansas #17 (25-8)	Arkansas (52.9%)	+10.1%	01:00 PM	100
01:00 PM+10.1% EDGE Vanderbilt #22 @ Arkansas #17 26-7 vs 25-8 Vanderbilt 47.1% Arkansas 52.9% Model Pick Arkansas 52.9% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +124 Away ML -146 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.1% MODEL PROB 52.9% VEGAS TRUE 42.8% VEGAS JUICED 44.5%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Vanderbilt #22 (26-7) @ Arkansas #17 (25-8)	Arkansas (52.9%)	+10.1%	01:00 PM	100
01:00 PM+10.1% EDGE Vanderbilt #22 @ Arkansas #17 26-7 vs 25-8 Vanderbilt 47.1% Arkansas 52.9% Model Pick Arkansas 52.9% Pick Spread +2.0 Home ML +124 Away ML -146 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.1% MODEL PROB 52.9% VEGAS TRUE 42.8% VEGAS JUICED 44.5%