Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
South Alabama (21-11) @ Auburn (17-16)	Auburn (80.8%)	10:00 PM	19
10:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT South Alabama @ Auburn 21-11 vs 17-16 South Alabama 19.2% Auburn 80.8% Model Pick Auburn 80.8% Pick Spread Auburn -18.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
Wyoming (18-14) @ Wichita State (22-11)	Wichita State (78.6%)	07:00 PM	21
07:00 PM Wyoming @ Wichita State 18-14 vs 22-11 Wyoming 21.4% Wichita State 78.6% Model Pick Wichita State 78.6% Pick Spread Wichita State -5.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
Stephen F. Austin (28-5) @ Tulsa (26-7)	Tulsa (78.5%)	09:00 PM	42
09:00 PM Stephen F. Austin @ Tulsa 28-5 vs 26-7 Stephen F. Austin 21.5% Tulsa 78.5% Model Pick Tulsa 78.5% Pick Spread Tulsa -7.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
UNC Wilmington (26-6) @ Yale (24-6)	Yale (78.1%)	07:00 PM	42
07:00 PM UNC Wilmington @ Yale 26-6 vs 24-6 UNC Wilmington 21.9% Yale 78.1% Model Pick Yale 78.1% Pick Spread Yale -4.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
UNLV (17-16) @ UC Irvine (23-11)	UC Irvine (77.2%)	11:00 PM	23
11:00 PM CLOSE UNLV @ UC Irvine 17-16 vs 23-11 UNLV 22.8% UC Irvine 77.2% Model Pick UC Irvine 77.2% Pick Spread UC Irvine -1.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
Davidson (20-13) @ Oklahoma State (19-14)	Oklahoma State (69.8%)	08:00 PM	30
08:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Davidson @ Oklahoma State 20-13 vs 19-14 Davidson 30.2% Oklahoma State 69.8% Model Pick Oklahoma State 69.8% Pick Spread Oklahoma State -6.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
NC State (20-13) @ Texas (18-14)	Texas (62.8%)	09:15 PM	42
09:15 PM +13.8% EDGECLOSE NC State @ Texas 20-13 vs 18-14 NC State 37.2% Texas 62.8% Model Pick Texas 62.8% Pick Spread Texas +0.0 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.8% MODEL PROB 62.8% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2%
Liberty (25-7) @ George Mason (23-9)	George Mason (60.2%)	06:00 PM	60
06:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Liberty @ George Mason 25-7 vs 23-9 Liberty 39.8% George Mason 60.2% Model Pick George Mason 60.2% Pick Spread George Mason -3.5 Home ML -238 Away ML +195 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -7.3% MODEL PROB 60.2% VEGAS TRUE 67.5% VEGAS JUICED 70.4%
St. Thomas-Minnesota (24-9) @ Seattle U (20-13)	Seattle U (59.4%)	10:00 PM	61
10:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Seattle U 24-9 vs 20-13 St. Thomas-Minnesota 40.6% Seattle U 59.4% Model Pick Seattle U 59.4% Pick Spread Seattle U -1.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
Howard (23-10) @ UMBC (24-8)	UMBC (50.6%) DOG	06:40 PM	74
06:40 PM CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT Howard @ UMBC 23-10 vs 24-8 Howard 49.4% UMBC 50.6% Model Pick UMBC 50.6% Pick Spread UMBC +1.5 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.8% MODEL PROB 50.6% VEGAS TRUE 47.8% VEGAS JUICED 50.0%

TIERED RECOMMENDATION SYSTEM

⭐ PREMIUM: 80%+ conf, 5+ edge (88.5% win, 69.1% ROI) • ✓ GOOD: 75%+ conf, 7+ edge (82.7% win, 57.9% ROI)

Based on 4,181 game analysis • Updated Feb 9, 2026

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
South Alabama (21-11) @ Auburn (17-16)	Auburn (80.8%)	10:00 PM	19
10:00 PMSIGNAL CONFLICT South Alabama @ Auburn 21-11 vs 17-16 South Alabama 19.2% Auburn 80.8% Model Pick Auburn (80.8%) Pick Spread Auburn -18.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
Wyoming (18-14) @ Wichita State (22-11)	Wichita State (78.6%)	07:00 PM	21
07:00 PM Wyoming @ Wichita State 18-14 vs 22-11 Wyoming 21.4% Wichita State 78.6% Model Pick Wichita State (78.6%) Pick Spread Wichita State -5.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
Stephen F. Austin (28-5) @ Tulsa (26-7)	Tulsa (78.5%)	09:00 PM	42
09:00 PM Stephen F. Austin @ Tulsa 28-5 vs 26-7 Stephen F. Austin 21.5% Tulsa 78.5% Model Pick Tulsa (78.5%) Pick Spread Tulsa -7.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
UNC Wilmington (26-6) @ Yale (24-6)	Yale (78.1%)	07:00 PM	42
07:00 PM UNC Wilmington @ Yale 26-6 vs 24-6 UNC Wilmington 21.9% Yale 78.1% Model Pick Yale (78.1%) Pick Spread Yale -4.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
UNLV (17-16) @ UC Irvine (23-11)	UC Irvine (77.2%)	11:00 PM	23
11:00 PM UNLV @ UC Irvine 17-16 vs 23-11 UNLV 22.8% UC Irvine 77.2% Model Pick UC Irvine (77.2%) Pick Spread UC Irvine -1.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
NC State (20-13) @ Texas (18-14)	Texas (62.8%)	09:15 PM	42
09:15 PM+13.8% EDGE NC State @ Texas 20-13 vs 18-14 NC State 37.2% Texas 62.8% Model Pick Texas 62.8% Pick Spread +0.0 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.8% MODEL PROB 62.8% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
UNLV (17-16) @ UC Irvine (23-11)	UC Irvine (77.2%)	11:00 PM	23
11:00 PMCLOSE UNLV @ UC Irvine 17-16 vs 23-11 UNLV 22.8% UC Irvine 77.2% Model Pick UC Irvine 77.2% Pick Spread UC Irvine -1.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
NC State (20-13) @ Texas (18-14)	Texas (62.8%)	09:15 PM	42
09:15 PMCLOSE NC State @ Texas 20-13 vs 18-14 NC State 37.2% Texas 62.8% Model Pick Texas 62.8% Pick Spread Texas +0.0 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.8% MODEL PROB 62.8% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2%
Liberty (25-7) @ George Mason (23-9)	George Mason (60.2%)	06:00 PM	60
06:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Liberty @ George Mason 25-7 vs 23-9 Liberty 39.8% George Mason 60.2% Model Pick George Mason 60.2% Pick Spread George Mason -3.5 Home ML -238 Away ML +195 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -7.3% MODEL PROB 60.2% VEGAS TRUE 67.5% VEGAS JUICED 70.4%
St. Thomas-Minnesota (24-9) @ Seattle U (20-13)	Seattle U (59.4%)	10:00 PM	61
10:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Seattle U 24-9 vs 20-13 St. Thomas-Minnesota 40.6% Seattle U 59.4% Model Pick Seattle U 59.4% Pick Spread Seattle U -1.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
Howard (23-10) @ UMBC (24-8)	UMBC (50.6%) DOG	06:40 PM	74
06:40 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Howard @ UMBC 23-10 vs 24-8 Howard 49.4% UMBC 50.6% Model Pick UMBC 50.6% Pick Spread UMBC +1.5 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.8% MODEL PROB 50.6% VEGAS TRUE 47.8% VEGAS JUICED 50.0%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Howard (23-10) @ UMBC (24-8)	UMBC (50.6%) DOG	+2.8%	06:40 PM	74
06:40 PMUNDERDOG MLSIGNAL CONFLICT Howard @ UMBC 23-10 vs 24-8 Howard 49.4% UMBC 50.6% Model Pick UMBC 50.6% Pick Spread UMBC +1.5 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.8% MODEL PROB 50.6% VEGAS TRUE 47.8% VEGAS JUICED 50.0%

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
Texas vs NC State	Texas FAV	62.8%	-105	⭐⭐⭐ +22.5%	09:15 PM
Liberty @ George Mason	Liberty DOG	39.8%	+195	⭐⭐ +17.3%	06:00 PM
UMBC vs Howard	UMBC DOG	50.6%	+100	⭐ +1.2%	06:40 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
NC State (20-13) @ Texas (18-14)	Texas (62.8%)	+13.8%	09:15 PM	42
09:15 PM+13.8% EDGE NC State @ Texas 20-13 vs 18-14 NC State 37.2% Texas 62.8% Model Pick Texas 62.8% Pick Spread +0.0 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.8% MODEL PROB 62.8% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
NC State (20-13) @ Texas (18-14)	Texas (62.8%)	+13.8%	09:15 PM	42
09:15 PM+13.8% EDGE NC State @ Texas 20-13 vs 18-14 NC State 37.2% Texas 62.8% Model Pick Texas 62.8% Pick Spread +0.0 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.8% MODEL PROB 62.8% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2%