Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
Sam Houston (22-11) @ New Mexico (23-10)	New Mexico (90.5%)	09:00 PM	30
09:00 PM Sam Houston @ New Mexico 22-11 vs 23-10 Sam Houston 9.5% New Mexico 90.5% Model Pick New Mexico 90.5% Pick Spread New Mexico -12.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
Murray State (20-12) @ Nevada (22-12)	Nevada (80.0%)	10:00 PM	40
10:00 PM Murray State @ Nevada 20-12 vs 22-12 Murray State 20.0% Nevada 80.0% Model Pick Nevada 80.0% Pick Spread Nevada -7.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
Kent State (24-9) @ Illinois State (20-12)	Illinois State (77.6%)	08:00 PM	42
08:00 PM Kent State @ Illinois State 24-9 vs 20-12 Kent State 22.4% Illinois State 77.6% Model Pick Illinois State 77.6% Pick Spread Illinois State -4.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
UIC (19-15) @ California (21-11)	California (76.1%)	11:00 PM	24
11:00 PM UIC @ California 19-15 vs 21-11 UIC 23.9% California 76.1% Model Pick California 76.1% Pick Spread California -5.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
Navy (26-7) @ Wake Forest (17-16)	Wake Forest (73.0%)	07:00 PM	37
07:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Navy @ Wake Forest 26-7 vs 17-16 Navy 27.0% Wake Forest 73.0% Model Pick Wake Forest 73.0% Pick Spread Wake Forest -10.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
Saint Joseph's (23-11) @ Colorado State (21-12)	Colorado State (69.3%)	11:00 PM	51
11:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Saint Joseph's @ Colorado State 23-11 vs 21-12 Saint Joseph's 30.7% Colorado State 69.3% Model Pick Colorado State 69.3% Pick Spread Colorado State -5.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
George Washington (18-15) @ Utah Valley (25-8)	Utah Valley (60.4%)	08:00 PM	50
08:00 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT George Washington @ Utah Valley 18-15 vs 25-8 George Washington 39.6% Utah Valley 60.4% Model Pick Utah Valley 60.4% Pick Spread Utah Valley -1.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
Dayton (23-11) @ Bradley (21-12)	Bradley (58.3%) DOG	09:00 PM	62
09:00 PM CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT Dayton @ Bradley 23-11 vs 21-12 Dayton 41.7% Bradley 58.3% Model Pick Bradley 58.3% Pick Spread Bradley +2.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
Lehigh (18-16) @ Prairie View A&M (18-17)	Prairie View A&M (52.1%)	06:40 PM	53
06:40 PM CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT Lehigh @ Prairie View A&M 18-16 vs 18-17 Lehigh 47.9% Prairie View A&M 52.1% Model Pick Prairie View A&M 52.1% Pick Spread Prairie View A&M +0.0 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.3% MODEL PROB 52.1% VEGAS TRUE 47.8% VEGAS JUICED 50.0%
SMU (20-13) @ Miami (OH) (31-1)	Miami (OH) (51.6%)	09:15 PM	73
09:15 PM +28.2% EDGEUNDERDOG SMU @ Miami (OH) 20-13 vs 31-1 SMU 48.4% Miami (OH) 51.6% Model Pick Miami (OH) 51.6% Pick Spread N/A Home ML +310 Away ML -395 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +28.2% MODEL PROB 51.6% VEGAS TRUE 23.4% VEGAS JUICED 24.4%

TIERED RECOMMENDATION SYSTEM

⭐ PREMIUM: 80%+ conf, 5+ edge (88.5% win, 69.1% ROI) • ✓ GOOD: 75%+ conf, 7+ edge (82.7% win, 57.9% ROI)

Based on 4,181 game analysis • Updated Feb 9, 2026

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Sam Houston (22-11) @ New Mexico (23-10)	New Mexico (90.5%)	09:00 PM	30
09:00 PM Sam Houston @ New Mexico 22-11 vs 23-10 Sam Houston 9.5% New Mexico 90.5% Model Pick New Mexico (90.5%) Pick Spread New Mexico -12.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
Murray State (20-12) @ Nevada (22-12)	Nevada (80.0%)	10:00 PM	40
10:00 PM Murray State @ Nevada 20-12 vs 22-12 Murray State 20.0% Nevada 80.0% Model Pick Nevada (80.0%) Pick Spread Nevada -7.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
Kent State (24-9) @ Illinois State (20-12)	Illinois State (77.6%)	08:00 PM	42
08:00 PM Kent State @ Illinois State 24-9 vs 20-12 Kent State 22.4% Illinois State 77.6% Model Pick Illinois State (77.6%) Pick Spread Illinois State -4.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
UIC (19-15) @ California (21-11)	California (76.1%)	11:00 PM	24
11:00 PM UIC @ California 19-15 vs 21-11 UIC 23.9% California 76.1% Model Pick California (76.1%) Pick Spread California -5.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
SMU (20-13) @ Miami (OH) (31-1)	Miami (OH) (51.6%)	09:15 PM	73
09:15 PM+28.2% EDGE SMU @ Miami (OH) 20-13 vs 31-1 SMU 48.4% Miami (OH) 51.6% Model Pick Miami (OH) 51.6% Pick Spread N/A Home ML +310 Away ML -395 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +28.2% MODEL PROB 51.6% VEGAS TRUE 23.4% VEGAS JUICED 24.4%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
George Washington (18-15) @ Utah Valley (25-8)	Utah Valley (60.4%)	08:00 PM	50
08:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT George Washington @ Utah Valley 18-15 vs 25-8 George Washington 39.6% Utah Valley 60.4% Model Pick Utah Valley 60.4% Pick Spread Utah Valley -1.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
Dayton (23-11) @ Bradley (21-12)	Bradley (58.3%) DOG	09:00 PM	62
09:00 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Dayton @ Bradley 23-11 vs 21-12 Dayton 41.7% Bradley 58.3% Model Pick Bradley 58.3% Pick Spread Bradley +2.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A
Lehigh (18-16) @ Prairie View A&M (18-17)	Prairie View A&M (52.1%)	06:40 PM	53
06:40 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Lehigh @ Prairie View A&M 18-16 vs 18-17 Lehigh 47.9% Prairie View A&M 52.1% Model Pick Prairie View A&M 52.1% Pick Spread Prairie View A&M +0.0 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.3% MODEL PROB 52.1% VEGAS TRUE 47.8% VEGAS JUICED 50.0%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Lehigh (18-16) @ Prairie View A&M (18-17)	Prairie View A&M (52.1%)	+4.3%	06:40 PM	53
06:40 PMUNDERDOG MLSIGNAL CONFLICT Lehigh @ Prairie View A&M 18-16 vs 18-17 Lehigh 47.9% Prairie View A&M 52.1% Model Pick Prairie View A&M 52.1% Pick Spread Prairie View A&M +0.0 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.3% MODEL PROB 52.1% VEGAS TRUE 47.8% VEGAS JUICED 50.0%
SMU (20-13) @ Miami (OH) (31-1)	Miami (OH) (51.6%)	+28.2%	09:15 PM	73
09:15 PMUNDERDOG ML SMU @ Miami (OH) 20-13 vs 31-1 SMU 48.4% Miami (OH) 51.6% Model Pick Miami (OH) 51.6% Pick Spread N/A Home ML +310 Away ML -395 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +28.2% MODEL PROB 51.6% VEGAS TRUE 23.4% VEGAS JUICED 24.4%

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
Miami (OH) vs SMU	Miami (OH) DOG	51.6%	+310	⭐⭐⭐ +111.7%	09:15 PM
Prairie View A&M vs Lehigh	Prairie View A&M DOG	52.1%	+100	⭐ +4.2%	06:40 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
SMU (20-13) @ Miami (OH) (31-1)	Miami (OH) (51.6%)	+28.2%	09:15 PM	73
09:15 PM+28.2% EDGE SMU @ Miami (OH) 20-13 vs 31-1 SMU 48.4% Miami (OH) 51.6% Model Pick Miami (OH) 51.6% Pick Spread N/A Home ML +310 Away ML -395 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +28.2% MODEL PROB 51.6% VEGAS TRUE 23.4% VEGAS JUICED 24.4%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
SMU (20-13) @ Miami (OH) (31-1)	Miami (OH) (51.6%)	+28.2%	09:15 PM	73
09:15 PM+28.2% EDGE SMU @ Miami (OH) 20-13 vs 31-1 SMU 48.4% Miami (OH) 51.6% Model Pick Miami (OH) 51.6% Pick Spread N/A Home ML +310 Away ML -395 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +28.2% MODEL PROB 51.6% VEGAS TRUE 23.4% VEGAS JUICED 24.4%