Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Friday, March 20, 2026

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
Long Island University (24-10) @ Arizona #2 (32-2)	Arizona (97.3%)	01:35 PM	48
01:35 PM Long Island University @ Arizona #2 24-10 vs 32-2 Long Island University 2.7% Arizona 97.3% Model Pick Arizona 97.3% Pick Spread Arizona -30.5 Home ML -100000 Away ML +5000 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.8% MODEL PROB 97.3% VEGAS TRUE 98.1% VEGAS JUICED 99.9%
Prairie View A&M (19-17) @ Florida #4 (26-7)	Florida (97.3%)	09:25 PM	38
09:25 PM Prairie View A&M @ Florida #4 19-17 vs 26-7 Prairie View A&M 2.7% Florida 97.3% Model Pick Florida 97.3% Pick Spread Florida -35.0 Home ML -100000 Away ML +5000 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.8% MODEL PROB 97.3% VEGAS TRUE 98.1% VEGAS JUICED 99.9%
Furman (22-12) @ UConn #7 (29-5)	UConn (95.8%)	10:00 PM	44
10:00 PM Furman @ UConn #7 22-12 vs 29-5 Furman 4.2% UConn 95.8% Model Pick UConn 95.8% Pick Spread UConn -20.5 Home ML -8000 Away ML +2200 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.0% MODEL PROB 95.8% VEGAS TRUE 95.8% VEGAS JUICED 98.8%
Wright State (23-11) @ Virginia #9 (29-5)	Virginia (94.6%)	01:50 PM	45
01:50 PM Wright State @ Virginia #9 23-11 vs 29-5 Wright State 5.4% Virginia 94.6% Model Pick Virginia 94.6% Pick Spread Virginia -18.0 Home ML -3200 Away ML +1400 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.0% MODEL PROB 94.6% VEGAS TRUE 93.6% VEGAS JUICED 97.0%
Tennessee State (23-9) @ Iowa State #6 (27-7)	Iowa State (83.0%)	02:50 PM	57
02:50 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Tennessee State @ Iowa State #6 23-9 vs 27-7 Tennessee State 17.0% Iowa State 83.0% Model Pick Iowa State 83.0% Pick Spread Iowa State -25.0 Home ML -6500 Away ML +2000 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -12.4% MODEL PROB 83.0% VEGAS TRUE 95.4% VEGAS JUICED 98.5%
Queens University (21-13) @ Purdue #8 (27-8)	Purdue (83.0%)	07:35 PM	57
07:35 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Queens University @ Purdue #8 21-13 vs 27-8 Queens University 17.0% Purdue 83.0% Model Pick Purdue 83.0% Pick Spread Purdue -25.5 Home ML -8000 Away ML +2200 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -12.8% MODEL PROB 83.0% VEGAS TRUE 95.8% VEGAS JUICED 98.8%
California Baptist (25-8) @ Kansas #17 (23-10)	Kansas (77.7%)	09:45 PM	62
09:45 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT California Baptist @ Kansas #17 25-8 vs 23-10 California Baptist 22.3% Kansas 77.7% Model Pick Kansas 77.7% Pick Spread Kansas -13.5 Home ML -1000 Away ML +650 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -9.5% MODEL PROB 77.7% VEGAS TRUE 87.2% VEGAS JUICED 90.9%
Hofstra (24-10) @ Alabama #18 (23-9)	Alabama (76.0%)	03:15 PM	64
03:15 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Hofstra @ Alabama #18 24-10 vs 23-9 Hofstra 24.0% Alabama 76.0% Model Pick Alabama 76.0% Pick Spread Alabama -12.0 Home ML -750 Away ML +525 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -8.6% MODEL PROB 76.0% VEGAS TRUE 84.7% VEGAS JUICED 88.2%
Miami (OH) (32-1) @ Tennessee #23 (22-11)	Tennessee (73.8%)	04:25 PM	66
04:25 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Miami (OH) @ Tennessee #23 32-1 vs 22-11 Miami (OH) 26.2% Tennessee 73.8% Model Pick Tennessee 73.8% Pick Spread Tennessee -12.5 Home ML -485 Away ML +370 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -5.8% MODEL PROB 73.8% VEGAS TRUE 79.6% VEGAS JUICED 82.9%
UCF (21-11) @ UCLA (23-11)	UCLA (72.1%)	07:25 PM	53
07:25 PM +4.1% EDGE UCF @ UCLA 21-11 vs 23-11 UCF 27.9% UCLA 72.1% Model Pick UCLA 72.1% Pick Spread UCLA -5.5 Home ML -245 Away ML +200 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.1% MODEL PROB 72.1% VEGAS TRUE 68.1% VEGAS JUICED 71.0%
Northern Iowa (23-12) @ St. John's #10 (28-6)	St. John's (69.4%)	07:10 PM	71
07:10 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Northern Iowa @ St. John's #10 23-12 vs 28-6 Northern Iowa 30.6% St. John's 69.4% Model Pick St. John's 69.4% Pick Spread St. John's -10.0 Home ML -425 Away ML +330 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -8.3% MODEL PROB 69.4% VEGAS TRUE 77.7% VEGAS JUICED 81.0%
Akron (29-5) @ Texas Tech #20 (22-10)	Texas Tech (68.1%)	12:40 PM	72
12:40 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Akron @ Texas Tech #20 29-5 vs 22-10 Akron 31.9% Texas Tech 68.1% Model Pick Texas Tech 68.1% Pick Spread Texas Tech -7.0 Home ML -360 Away ML +285 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -7.0% MODEL PROB 68.1% VEGAS TRUE 75.1% VEGAS JUICED 78.3%
Santa Clara (26-8) @ Kentucky (21-13)	Kentucky (59.1%)	12:15 PM	66
12:15 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Santa Clara @ Kentucky 26-8 vs 21-13 Santa Clara 40.9% Kentucky 59.1% Model Pick Kentucky 59.1% Pick Spread Kentucky -3.5 Home ML -148 Away ML +124 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.9% MODEL PROB 59.1% VEGAS TRUE 57.2% VEGAS JUICED 59.7%
Missouri (20-12) @ Miami #25 (25-8)	Miami (56.9%)	10:10 PM	83
10:10 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Missouri @ Miami #25 20-12 vs 25-8 Missouri 43.1% Miami 56.9% Model Pick Miami 56.9% Pick Spread Miami -1.5 Home ML -135 Away ML +114 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.7% MODEL PROB 56.9% VEGAS TRUE 55.1% VEGAS JUICED 57.4%
Utah State (28-6) @ Villanova (24-8)	Villanova (50.5%) DOG	04:10 PM	74
04:10 PM CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT Utah State @ Villanova 28-6 vs 24-8 Utah State 49.5% Villanova 50.5% Model Pick Villanova 50.5% Pick Spread Villanova +2.0 Home ML +114 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.6% MODEL PROB 50.5% VEGAS TRUE 44.9% VEGAS JUICED 46.7%
Iowa (21-12) @ Clemson (24-10)	Clemson (50.5%) DOG	06:50 PM	74
06:50 PM CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT Iowa @ Clemson 21-12 vs 24-10 Iowa 49.5% Clemson 50.5% Model Pick Clemson 50.5% Pick Spread Clemson +1.5 Home ML +120 Away ML -142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.8% MODEL PROB 50.5% VEGAS TRUE 43.7% VEGAS JUICED 45.5%

TIERED RECOMMENDATION SYSTEM

⭐ PREMIUM: 80%+ conf, 5+ edge (88.5% win, 69.1% ROI) • ✓ GOOD: 75%+ conf, 7+ edge (82.7% win, 57.9% ROI)

Based on 4,181 game analysis • Updated Feb 9, 2026

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Long Island University (24-10) @ Arizona #2 (32-2)	Arizona (97.3%)	01:35 PM	48
01:35 PM Long Island University @ Arizona #2 24-10 vs 32-2 Long Island University 2.7% Arizona 97.3% Model Pick Arizona (97.3%) Pick Spread Arizona -30.5 Home ML -100000 Away ML +5000 SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
Prairie View A&M (19-17) @ Florida #4 (26-7)	Florida (97.3%)	09:25 PM	38
09:25 PM Prairie View A&M @ Florida #4 19-17 vs 26-7 Prairie View A&M 2.7% Florida 97.3% Model Pick Florida (97.3%) Pick Spread Florida -35.0 Home ML -100000 Away ML +5000 SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
Furman (22-12) @ UConn #7 (29-5)	UConn (95.8%)	10:00 PM	44
10:00 PM Furman @ UConn #7 22-12 vs 29-5 Furman 4.2% UConn 95.8% Model Pick UConn (95.8%) Pick Spread UConn -20.5 Home ML -8000 Away ML +2200 SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
Wright State (23-11) @ Virginia #9 (29-5)	Virginia (94.6%)	01:50 PM	45
01:50 PM Wright State @ Virginia #9 23-11 vs 29-5 Wright State 5.4% Virginia 94.6% Model Pick Virginia (94.6%) Pick Spread Virginia -18.0 Home ML -3200 Away ML +1400 SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
Tennessee State (23-9) @ Iowa State #6 (27-7)	Iowa State (83.0%)	02:50 PM	57
02:50 PMSIGNAL CONFLICT Tennessee State @ Iowa State #6 23-9 vs 27-7 Tennessee State 17.0% Iowa State 83.0% Model Pick Iowa State (83.0%) Pick Spread Iowa State -25.0 Home ML -6500 Away ML +2000 SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
Queens University (21-13) @ Purdue #8 (27-8)	Purdue (83.0%)	07:35 PM	57
07:35 PMSIGNAL CONFLICT Queens University @ Purdue #8 21-13 vs 27-8 Queens University 17.0% Purdue 83.0% Model Pick Purdue (83.0%) Pick Spread Purdue -25.5 Home ML -8000 Away ML +2200 SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
California Baptist (25-8) @ Kansas #17 (23-10)	Kansas (77.7%)	09:45 PM	62
09:45 PMSIGNAL CONFLICT California Baptist @ Kansas #17 25-8 vs 23-10 California Baptist 22.3% Kansas 77.7% Model Pick Kansas (77.7%) Pick Spread Kansas -13.5 Home ML -1000 Away ML +650 SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
Hofstra (24-10) @ Alabama #18 (23-9)	Alabama (76.0%)	03:15 PM	64
03:15 PMSIGNAL CONFLICT Hofstra @ Alabama #18 24-10 vs 23-9 Hofstra 24.0% Alabama 76.0% Model Pick Alabama (76.0%) Pick Spread Alabama -12.0 Home ML -750 Away ML +525 SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
UCF (21-11) @ UCLA (23-11)	UCLA (72.1%)	07:25 PM	53
07:25 PM+4.1% EDGE UCF @ UCLA 21-11 vs 23-11 UCF 27.9% UCLA 72.1% Model Pick UCLA 72.1% Pick Spread -5.5 Home ML -245 Away ML +200 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.1% MODEL PROB 72.1% VEGAS TRUE 68.1% VEGAS JUICED 71.0%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Santa Clara (26-8) @ Kentucky (21-13)	Kentucky (59.1%)	12:15 PM	66
12:15 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Santa Clara @ Kentucky 26-8 vs 21-13 Santa Clara 40.9% Kentucky 59.1% Model Pick Kentucky 59.1% Pick Spread Kentucky -3.5 Home ML -148 Away ML +124 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.9% MODEL PROB 59.1% VEGAS TRUE 57.2% VEGAS JUICED 59.7%
Missouri (20-12) @ Miami #25 (25-8)	Miami (56.9%)	10:10 PM	83
10:10 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Missouri @ Miami #25 20-12 vs 25-8 Missouri 43.1% Miami 56.9% Model Pick Miami 56.9% Pick Spread Miami -1.5 Home ML -135 Away ML +114 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.7% MODEL PROB 56.9% VEGAS TRUE 55.1% VEGAS JUICED 57.4%
Utah State (28-6) @ Villanova (24-8)	Villanova (50.5%) DOG	04:10 PM	74
04:10 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Utah State @ Villanova 28-6 vs 24-8 Utah State 49.5% Villanova 50.5% Model Pick Villanova 50.5% Pick Spread Villanova +2.0 Home ML +114 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.6% MODEL PROB 50.5% VEGAS TRUE 44.9% VEGAS JUICED 46.7%
Iowa (21-12) @ Clemson (24-10)	Clemson (50.5%) DOG	06:50 PM	74
06:50 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Iowa @ Clemson 21-12 vs 24-10 Iowa 49.5% Clemson 50.5% Model Pick Clemson 50.5% Pick Spread Clemson +1.5 Home ML +120 Away ML -142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.8% MODEL PROB 50.5% VEGAS TRUE 43.7% VEGAS JUICED 45.5%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Utah State (28-6) @ Villanova (24-8)	Villanova (50.5%) DOG	+5.6%	04:10 PM	74
04:10 PMUNDERDOG MLSIGNAL CONFLICT Utah State @ Villanova 28-6 vs 24-8 Utah State 49.5% Villanova 50.5% Model Pick Villanova 50.5% Pick Spread Villanova +2.0 Home ML +114 Away ML -135 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.6% MODEL PROB 50.5% VEGAS TRUE 44.9% VEGAS JUICED 46.7%
Iowa (21-12) @ Clemson (24-10)	Clemson (50.5%) DOG	+6.8%	06:50 PM	74
06:50 PMUNDERDOG MLSIGNAL CONFLICT Iowa @ Clemson 21-12 vs 24-10 Iowa 49.5% Clemson 50.5% Model Pick Clemson 50.5% Pick Spread Clemson +1.5 Home ML +120 Away ML -142 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +6.8% MODEL PROB 50.5% VEGAS TRUE 43.7% VEGAS JUICED 45.5%

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
Queens University @ Purdue	Queens University DOG	17.0%	+2200	⭐⭐⭐ +291.4%	07:35 PM
Tennessee State @ Iowa State	Tennessee State DOG	17.0%	+2000	⭐⭐⭐ +257.1%	02:50 PM
California Baptist @ Kansas	California Baptist DOG	22.3%	+650	⭐⭐⭐ +67.1%	09:45 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level