Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Sunday, March 22, 2026

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
Utah State (29-6) @ Arizona #2 (33-2)	Arizona (83.0%)	07:50 PM	62
07:50 PM Utah State @ Arizona #2 29-6 vs 33-2 Utah State 17.0% Arizona 83.0% Model Pick Arizona 83.0% Pick Spread Arizona -11.5 Home ML -800 Away ML +550 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -2.3% MODEL PROB 83.0% VEGAS TRUE 85.2% VEGAS JUICED 88.9%
Iowa (22-12) @ Florida #4 (27-7)	Florida (82.5%)	07:10 PM	62
07:10 PM Iowa @ Florida #4 22-12 vs 27-7 Iowa 17.5% Florida 82.5% Model Pick Florida 82.5% Pick Spread Florida -10.0 Home ML -625 Away ML +455 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -0.3% MODEL PROB 82.5% VEGAS TRUE 82.7% VEGAS JUICED 86.2%
Miami #25 (26-8) @ Purdue #8 (28-8)	Purdue (77.8%)	12:10 PM	77
12:10 PM +3.7% EDGE Miami #25 @ Purdue #8 26-8 vs 28-8 Miami 22.2% Purdue 77.8% Model Pick Purdue 77.8% Pick Spread Purdue -8.0 Home ML -340 Away ML +270 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.7% MODEL PROB 77.8% VEGAS TRUE 74.1% VEGAS JUICED 77.3%
Seattle U (21-13) @ Auburn (18-16)	Auburn (76.5%)	06:30 PM	24
06:30 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Seattle U @ Auburn 21-13 vs 18-16 Seattle U 23.5% Auburn 76.5% Model Pick Auburn 76.5% Pick Spread Auburn -14.5 Home ML -1100 Away ML +700 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -11.5% MODEL PROB 76.5% VEGAS TRUE 88.0% VEGAS JUICED 91.7%
Illinois State (21-12) @ Wake Forest (18-16)	Wake Forest (76.1%)	04:30 PM	24
04:30 PM Illinois State @ Wake Forest 21-12 vs 18-16 Illinois State 23.9% Wake Forest 76.1% Model Pick Wake Forest 76.1% Pick Spread Wake Forest -7.5 Home ML -325 Away ML +260 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.7% MODEL PROB 76.1% VEGAS TRUE 73.4% VEGAS JUICED 76.5%
George Washington (19-15) @ New Mexico (24-10)	New Mexico (75.6%)	08:00 PM	34
08:00 PM George Washington @ New Mexico 19-15 vs 24-10 George Washington 24.4% New Mexico 75.6% Model Pick New Mexico 75.6% Pick Spread New Mexico -6.5 Home ML -325 Away ML +260 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.2% MODEL PROB 75.6% VEGAS TRUE 73.4% VEGAS JUICED 76.5%
Kentucky (22-13) @ Iowa State #6 (28-7)	Iowa State (67.9%)	02:45 PM	72
02:45 PM Kentucky @ Iowa State #6 22-13 vs 28-7 Kentucky 32.1% Iowa State 67.9% Model Pick Iowa State 67.9% Pick Spread Iowa State -5.0 Home ML -218 Away ML +180 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.1% MODEL PROB 67.9% VEGAS TRUE 65.7% VEGAS JUICED 68.6%
UNLV (18-16) @ Tulsa (27-7)	Tulsa (65.5%)	07:00 PM	44
07:00 PM +3.2% EDGE UNLV @ Tulsa 18-16 vs 27-7 UNLV 34.5% Tulsa 65.5% Model Pick Tulsa 65.5% Pick Spread Tulsa -5.5 Home ML -185 Away ML +154 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.2% MODEL PROB 65.5% VEGAS TRUE 62.2% VEGAS JUICED 64.9%
UCLA (24-11) @ UConn #7 (30-5)	UConn (64.6%)	08:45 PM	75
08:45 PM UCLA @ UConn #7 24-11 vs 30-5 UCLA 35.4% UConn 64.6% Model Pick UConn 64.6% Pick Spread UConn -4.5 Home ML -185 Away ML +154 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.3% MODEL PROB 64.6% VEGAS TRUE 62.2% VEGAS JUICED 64.9%
Saint Joseph's (23-11) @ California (22-11)	California (61.9%)	09:00 PM	58
09:00 PM SIGNAL CONFLICT Saint Joseph's @ California 23-11 vs 22-11 Saint Joseph's 38.1% California 61.9% Model Pick California 61.9% Pick Spread California -5.5 Home ML -245 Away ML +200 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -6.2% MODEL PROB 61.9% VEGAS TRUE 68.1% VEGAS JUICED 71.0%
Wichita State (23-11) @ Oklahoma State (20-14)	Oklahoma State (58.9%)	08:30 PM	41
08:30 PM CLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Wichita State @ Oklahoma State 23-11 vs 20-14 Wichita State 41.1% Oklahoma State 58.9% Model Pick Oklahoma State 58.9% Pick Spread Oklahoma State -2.5 Home ML -166 Away ML +140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.0% MODEL PROB 58.9% VEGAS TRUE 60.0% VEGAS JUICED 62.4%
Texas Tech #20 (23-10) @ Alabama #18 (24-9)	Alabama (57.1%) DOG	09:45 PM	98
09:45 PM CLOSEUNDERDOG Texas Tech #20 @ Alabama #18 23-10 vs 24-9 Texas Tech 42.9% Alabama 57.1% Model Pick Alabama 57.1% Pick Spread Alabama +1.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -120
Tennessee #23 (23-11) @ Virginia #9 (30-5)	Virginia (51.8%) DOG	06:10 PM	100
06:10 PM CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT Tennessee #23 @ Virginia #9 23-11 vs 30-5 Tennessee 48.2% Virginia 51.8% Model Pick Virginia 51.8% Pick Spread Virginia +1.0 Home ML -108 Away ML -112 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.3% MODEL PROB 51.8% VEGAS TRUE 49.6% VEGAS JUICED 51.9%
St. John's #10 (29-6) @ Kansas #17 (24-10)	Kansas (51.5%) DOG	05:15 PM	100
05:15 PM CLOSEUNDERDOGSIGNAL CONFLICT St. John's #10 @ Kansas #17 29-6 vs 24-10 St. John's 48.5% Kansas 51.5% Model Pick Kansas 51.5% Pick Spread Kansas +3.5 Home ML +140 Away ML -166 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.4% MODEL PROB 51.5% VEGAS TRUE 40.0% VEGAS JUICED 41.7%

TIERED RECOMMENDATION SYSTEM

⭐ PREMIUM: 80%+ conf, 5+ edge (88.5% win, 69.1% ROI) • ✓ GOOD: 75%+ conf, 7+ edge (82.7% win, 57.9% ROI)

Based on 4,181 game analysis • Updated Feb 9, 2026

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Utah State (29-6) @ Arizona #2 (33-2)	Arizona (83.0%)	07:50 PM	62
07:50 PM Utah State @ Arizona #2 29-6 vs 33-2 Utah State 17.0% Arizona 83.0% Model Pick Arizona (83.0%) Pick Spread Arizona -11.5 Home ML -800 Away ML +550 SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
Iowa (22-12) @ Florida #4 (27-7)	Florida (82.5%)	07:10 PM	62
07:10 PM Iowa @ Florida #4 22-12 vs 27-7 Iowa 17.5% Florida 82.5% Model Pick Florida (82.5%) Pick Spread Florida -10.0 Home ML -625 Away ML +455 SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
Miami #25 (26-8) @ Purdue #8 (28-8)	Purdue (77.8%)	12:10 PM	77
12:10 PM Miami #25 @ Purdue #8 26-8 vs 28-8 Miami 22.2% Purdue 77.8% Model Pick Purdue (77.8%) Pick Spread Purdue -8.0 Home ML -340 Away ML +270 SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
Seattle U (21-13) @ Auburn (18-16)	Auburn (76.5%)	06:30 PM	24
06:30 PMSIGNAL CONFLICT Seattle U @ Auburn 21-13 vs 18-16 Seattle U 23.5% Auburn 76.5% Model Pick Auburn (76.5%) Pick Spread Auburn -14.5 Home ML -1100 Away ML +700 SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
Illinois State (21-12) @ Wake Forest (18-16)	Wake Forest (76.1%)	04:30 PM	24
04:30 PM Illinois State @ Wake Forest 21-12 vs 18-16 Illinois State 23.9% Wake Forest 76.1% Model Pick Wake Forest (76.1%) Pick Spread Wake Forest -7.5 Home ML -325 Away ML +260 SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A
George Washington (19-15) @ New Mexico (24-10)	New Mexico (75.6%)	08:00 PM	34
08:00 PM George Washington @ New Mexico 19-15 vs 24-10 George Washington 24.4% New Mexico 75.6% Model Pick New Mexico (75.6%) Pick Spread New Mexico -6.5 Home ML -325 Away ML +260 SPREAD EDGE N/A PREDICTED MARGIN +0.0 COVERAGE N/A

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Miami #25 (26-8) @ Purdue #8 (28-8)	Purdue (77.8%)	12:10 PM	77
12:10 PM+3.7% EDGE Miami #25 @ Purdue #8 26-8 vs 28-8 Miami 22.2% Purdue 77.8% Model Pick Purdue 77.8% Pick Spread -8.0 Home ML -340 Away ML +270 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.7% MODEL PROB 77.8% VEGAS TRUE 74.1% VEGAS JUICED 77.3%
UNLV (18-16) @ Tulsa (27-7)	Tulsa (65.5%)	07:00 PM	44
07:00 PM+3.2% EDGE UNLV @ Tulsa 18-16 vs 27-7 UNLV 34.5% Tulsa 65.5% Model Pick Tulsa 65.5% Pick Spread -5.5 Home ML -185 Away ML +154 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.2% MODEL PROB 65.5% VEGAS TRUE 62.2% VEGAS JUICED 64.9%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Wichita State (23-11) @ Oklahoma State (20-14)	Oklahoma State (58.9%)	08:30 PM	41
08:30 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Wichita State @ Oklahoma State 23-11 vs 20-14 Wichita State 41.1% Oklahoma State 58.9% Model Pick Oklahoma State 58.9% Pick Spread Oklahoma State -2.5 Home ML -166 Away ML +140 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -1.0% MODEL PROB 58.9% VEGAS TRUE 60.0% VEGAS JUICED 62.4%
Texas Tech #20 (23-10) @ Alabama #18 (24-9)	Alabama (57.1%) DOG	09:45 PM	98
09:45 PMCLOSE Texas Tech #20 @ Alabama #18 23-10 vs 24-9 Texas Tech 42.9% Alabama 57.1% Model Pick Alabama 57.1% Pick Spread Alabama +1.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -120
Tennessee #23 (23-11) @ Virginia #9 (30-5)	Virginia (51.8%) DOG	06:10 PM	100
06:10 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT Tennessee #23 @ Virginia #9 23-11 vs 30-5 Tennessee 48.2% Virginia 51.8% Model Pick Virginia 51.8% Pick Spread Virginia +1.0 Home ML -108 Away ML -112 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +2.3% MODEL PROB 51.8% VEGAS TRUE 49.6% VEGAS JUICED 51.9%
St. John's #10 (29-6) @ Kansas #17 (24-10)	Kansas (51.5%) DOG	05:15 PM	100
05:15 PMCLOSESIGNAL CONFLICT St. John's #10 @ Kansas #17 29-6 vs 24-10 St. John's 48.5% Kansas 51.5% Model Pick Kansas 51.5% Pick Spread Kansas +3.5 Home ML +140 Away ML -166 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.4% MODEL PROB 51.5% VEGAS TRUE 40.0% VEGAS JUICED 41.7%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Texas Tech #20 (23-10) @ Alabama #18 (24-9)	Alabama (57.1%) DOG	+0.0%	09:45 PM	98
09:45 PMUNDERDOG ML Texas Tech #20 @ Alabama #18 23-10 vs 24-9 Texas Tech 42.9% Alabama 57.1% Model Pick Alabama 57.1% Pick Spread Alabama +1.0 Home ML N/A Away ML -120
St. John's #10 (29-6) @ Kansas #17 (24-10)	Kansas (51.5%) DOG	+11.4%	05:15 PM	100
05:15 PMUNDERDOG MLSIGNAL CONFLICT St. John's #10 @ Kansas #17 29-6 vs 24-10 St. John's 48.5% Kansas 51.5% Model Pick Kansas 51.5% Pick Spread Kansas +3.5 Home ML +140 Away ML -166 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +11.4% MODEL PROB 51.5% VEGAS TRUE 40.0% VEGAS JUICED 41.7%

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
Seattle U @ Auburn	Seattle U DOG	23.5%	+700	⭐⭐⭐ +87.9%	06:30 PM
Kansas vs St. John's	Kansas DOG	51.5%	+140	⭐⭐⭐ +23.6%	05:15 PM
Saint Joseph's @ California	Saint Joseph's DOG	38.1%	+200	⭐⭐ +14.3%	09:00 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Model Information

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Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

XGBoost Win/Loss Model