Model Information
- XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
- XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
- Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
- Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
- Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
- Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)
📅 All Games Today
| Game | Prediction ⇅ | Time (ET) ⇅ | Hype Level ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois State (22-12) @ Dayton (25-11) | Dayton (76.2%) | 07:00 PM | 44 |
| Nevada (24-12) @ Auburn (19-16) | Auburn (70.4%) | 09:00 PM | 30 |
TIERED RECOMMENDATION SYSTEM
⭐ PREMIUM: 80%+ conf, 5+ edge (88.5% win, 69.1% ROI) •
✓ GOOD: 75%+ conf, 7+ edge (82.7% win, 57.9% ROI)
Based on 4,181 game analysis • Updated Feb 9, 2026
| Game | Prediction | Time (ET) | Hype Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois State (22-12) @ Dayton (25-11) | Dayton (76.2%) | 07:00 PM | 44 |
| Game | Prediction | Time (ET) | Hype Level |
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| Game | Prediction | Time (ET) | Hype Level |
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| Game | Prediction | Edge | Time (ET) | Hype Level |
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| Game | Pick | Confidence | Moneyline | Expected Value | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada @ Auburn | Nevada DOG | 29.6% | +320 | ⭐⭐⭐ +24.3% | 09:00 PM |
| Game | Prediction | Time (ET) | Hype Level |
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| Game | Prediction | Edge | Time (ET) | Hype Level |
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| Game | Prediction | Edge | Time (ET) | Hype Level |
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