The Lab Analytics|Basketball

 2025-26 SEASON
Today
APR 04
Total Games
4
Model
XGBoost
Features
144
Training Set
25,500+
Season
2025-26

All Games Today

4 games shown
▼ Low (<60%) 4 games
Low 59%
+EDGE +7%100
08:49 PM — CLOSE UNDERDOG CONFLICT
Michigan #3
41.4% 35-3
+100
@
Arizona #2 PICK
58.6% 36-2
-115
Predicted Winner Arizona (58.6%)
Spread
Arizona +1.0
Low 57%
+EDGE +9%48
01:30 PM — CLOSE CONFLICT
Oklahoma
42.8% 20-15
-118
@
Baylor PICK
57.2% 17-16
-102
Predicted Winner Baylor (57.2%)
Spread
Baylor -1.5
Low 55%
+EDGE +7%50
04:00 PM — CLOSE UNDERDOG CONFLICT
West Virginia
44.6% 19-14
-115
@
Creighton PICK
55.4% 16-17
-105
Predicted Winner Creighton (55.4%)
Spread
Creighton +1.5
Low 52%
+EDGE +10%100
06:09 PM — CLOSE UNDERDOG CONFLICT
Illinois #13
47.6% 28-8
-148
@
UConn #7 PICK
52.4% 33-5
+124
Predicted Winner UConn (52.4%)
Spread
UConn +2.0
TIERED RECOMMENDATION SYSTEM
PREMIUM: 80%+ conf, 5+ edge (88.5% win, 69.1% ROI) • GOOD: 75%+ conf, 7+ edge (82.7% win, 57.9% ROI)
Based on 4,181 game analysis

No games in this category.

No games in this category.

▼ Low (<60%) 4 games
Low 59%
+EDGE +7%100
08:49 PM — CLOSE CONFLICT
Michigan #3
41.4% 35-3
+100
@
Arizona #2 PICK
58.6% 36-2
-115
Predicted Winner Arizona (58.6%)
Spread
Arizona +1.0
Low 57%
+EDGE +9%48
01:30 PM — CLOSE CONFLICT
Oklahoma
42.8% 20-15
-118
@
Baylor PICK
57.2% 17-16
-102
Predicted Winner Baylor (57.2%)
Spread
Baylor -1.5
Low 55%
+EDGE +7%50
04:00 PM — CLOSE CONFLICT
West Virginia
44.6% 19-14
-115
@
Creighton PICK
55.4% 16-17
-105
Predicted Winner Creighton (55.4%)
Spread
Creighton +1.5
Low 52%
+EDGE +10%100
06:09 PM — CLOSE CONFLICT
Illinois #13
47.6% 28-8
-148
@
UConn #7 PICK
52.4% 33-5
+124
Predicted Winner UConn (52.4%)
Spread
UConn +2.0
▼ Low (<60%) 1 games
Low 52%
+EDGE +10%100
06:09 PM — UNDERDOG ML +9.6% EDGE CONFLICT
Illinois #13
47.6% 28-8
-148
@
UConn #7 PICK
52.4% 33-5
+124
Predicted Winner UConn (52.4%)
Spread
UConn +2.0
▼ Low (<60%) 3 games
Low 59%
+EDGE +7%100
08:49 PM — ML -115 EV +9.6% CONFLICT
Michigan #3
41.4% 35-3
+100
@
Arizona #2 PICK
58.6% 36-2
-115
Predicted Winner Arizona (58.6%)
Spread
Arizona +1.0
Low 57%
+EDGE +9%48
01:30 PM — ML -102 EV +13.3% CONFLICT
Oklahoma
42.8% 20-15
-118
@
Baylor PICK
57.2% 17-16
-102
Predicted Winner Baylor (57.2%)
Spread
Baylor -1.5
Low 52%
+EDGE +10%100
06:09 PM — ML +124 EV +17.3% CONFLICT
Illinois #13
47.6% 28-8
-148
@
UConn #7 PICK
52.4% 33-5
+124
Predicted Winner UConn (52.4%)
Spread
UConn +2.0

No games in this category.

No games in this category.

No games in this category.

Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values show which features have the most impact on our model's predictions. The values below represent the mean absolute SHAP value across all 4 games today.

XGBoost Win/Loss Model

Feature importance for win/loss predictions. Higher values indicate stronger influence on the predicted outcome.

Away Team Implied Probability
0.2657
Dominance Diff
0.2232
Point Spread
0.1639
Quality Dominance Diff
0.0793
Home Cumsum Fouls
0.0539
Srs Diff Rolling
0.0376
Away Cumsum Reb Offensive
0.0328
Efficiency Diff
0.0303
Away Moneyline
0.0293
Home Team Implied Probability
0.0264

How to interpret: Features at the top have the largest average impact on predictions. The bar width shows relative importance, and the number shows the mean absolute SHAP value.

Technical note: SHAP values are calculated for each game individually, then averaged to show overall feature importance across today's predictions.

NCAA Basketball Prediction Model

Win/Loss: xgb_basketball.pkl | Points: XGB-POINTS (dual-perspective) (xgb_points.joblib)

Generated: Saturday, April 04, 2026 • 2026-04-04T18:00:45.815347

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